Jeremy's Knesset Insider

This post includes three tables. The election results, the exit poll averages and the accuracy of the exit polls.

The final results including the double envelopes/absentee ballots are expected either tomorrow night or Friday morning. The results must be certified eight days after the election – September 25th.

President Rivlin can ask Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer permission to start the Phase 2 consultations before the Phase 1 results are certified. It is at Meltzer’s discretion to agree or not. In the April election Meltzer allowed Rivlin to carry out his consultations before the results were certified.

Table 1: Final Results before Double Envelopes (Absentee Voting)

Table 2: Each Exit Poll & Exit Poll AVG

Table 3: Accuracy of Exit Poll AVG

The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here:

Final 22nd Knesset Elections: Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: Likud 33, Blue & White 32, Joint List 11, Yamina 8, Yisrael Beitenu 8, UTJ 8

The final Knesset Jeremy Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis:

Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis

The final Knesset Jeremy Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis:

Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis

The rest of the schedule: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis

There are three votes that determine the Israeli Prime Minister. The first, or as I call it “Phase 1”, takes place tomorrow – the Knesset election for Israel’s legislative branch. The second, or as I call it “Phase 2”, takes place when the parties that enter the Knesset nominate a Prime Minister candidate at the President’s Residence. The third, or as I call it “Phase 3”, takes place when the person who was handed the mandate to form a coalition government presents his new government for a confidence vote in the Knesset.

In my previous posts I provided my predictions for Phase 1 and Phase 2. In this piece I will present my predictions for Phase 3.

Option #1: 63 MK coalition for Netanyahu: 38 Likud, 9 UTJ, 9 Shas, 7 Yamina

In this scenario all of the parties who nominated Netanyahu join his coalition.

Option #2: 66 MK coalition for Gantz: 35 Blue & White, *8 UTJ, *8 Shas, 6 Yisrael Beitenu, 5 Labor, *4 Democratic Union

This can happen if Gantz is given the mandate first to form a government or if he is given the mandate second. Either way, in this scenario, which takes into account my 3-seat margin of error, Gantz leads a coalition with the Haredim, Yisrael Beitenu and has the ability to either leave out Labor or Meretz if he so desires. The Joint List serves as a placeholder between Phase 2 and Phase 3 so that Gantz can form a government with both Shas & UTJ. In this scenario which is highly unlikely Lapid is able to sit with UTJ and Shas, Yaalon is able to sit with Lieberman and the Democratic Union is somehow able to sit with Yisrael Beitenu, UTJ & Shas.

Option #3: 73 MK National Unity Government with 38 Likud and 35 Blue & White.

There is no need for Yisrael Beitenu. This option needs to overcome to hurdle that Gantz is ruling out joining Netanyahu in the hopes that Netanyahu fails to form a government and Gantz will get the second crack at forming a coalition. This scenario can happen if Gantz gets the mandate first, fails and Netanyahu chooses to bring Blue & White into his government over negotiating with the other parties. In this scenario Netanyahu either remains Prime Minister for the entire term or he agrees to a rotation where he will step down at some point during the term in favor of Gantz. There is also the chance that Netanyahu offers Gantz the choice to replace his natural partners between Phase 2 & Phase 3 in order to pass through Trump’s deal of the century.

Option #4: Mystery MK forms coalition.

If both Netanyahu and Gantz fail to form a coalition the law allows any MK to sign 61 MKs on a nomination paper that he or she hands to the President. In this “wild west” scenario any MK can break with party lines and sign for whichever candidate he or she chooses. This is a scenario that will be the elephant in the room if indeed neither side receives 61 nominations. My model predicts 63 seats, yet with a 3-seat-margin-of-error it is possible we see a 60-60 tie between the nominating blocs which could eventually lead to this scenario. I don’t see this scenario playing out but the fact that it exists will influence the decisionmakers choices in Phase 2.

Prediction:

Option 1 would provide Netanyahu with an ideal coalition of his natural partners, yet he will have little flexibility in such a tight coalition. There would only be three coalition partners, but he would need to concede senior portfolios which could lead to issues within his own party.

Option 2 is a big stretch. UTJ & Shas have ruled out sitting with Lapid. Liberman refuses to sit with Meretz or with Yaalon. Yaalon and Meretz refuse to sit with Liberman. There does not seem to be enough senior portfolios to hand off to everyone. Gantz can’t offer anyone a better deal to defect when everyone would probably receive a better deal from Netanyahu.

Option 3 might provide the most stable government, especially if the Trump Peace Plan is indeed released between Phase 2 and Phase 3. In this scenario Gantz doesn’t need to nominate Netanyahu for Prime Minister. Gantz can fulfill his campaign pledge not to nominate Netanyahu at the President’s Residence and “replace” the right-religious bloc parties who had nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2 in Phase 3 by signing a coalition agreement. Gantz can justify it to his base that he alone can provide the stability needed for an Israeli government that would agree to pursue the Trump Peace Plan. The most difficult issue for Gantz to overcome is that Netanyahu’s legal cases are expected to keep moving forward and he will be the one keeping him in power. In the past Netanyahu has signed coalition deals with parties that have not nominated him in Phase 2. The most recent cases are Ehud Barak’s Labor Party in 2009 and Tzipi Livni’s HaTnuna Party in 2013.

Option 4 is the least likely but might get the most play in the media. If we do get there so there will be a lot of pressure to form a government because if not the country will automatically head to a third election.

The two most likely Phase 3 options are Option 1 or Option 3. It is difficult to predict which option Netanyahu will choose and he might pursue both of them simultaneously. He has done that in the past. The most recent case was in 2016 when Netanyahu negotiated with Herzog’s Zionist Union and Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu in efforts to expand his government. He did so during the April Elections negotiations when he simultaneously negotiated with Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu & with Avi Gabbai’s Labor.

I can’t determine at this time which option, between option 1 and option 3, is more likely but I can determine that the most likely option is that Prime Minister Netanyahu is re-elected in Phase 3.

To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!