Tag Archive: Poll of Polls


Smith conducted a poll of 650 people with a margin of error of 3.9% that was published by the Jerusalem Post & Maariv on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
05 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

3.1% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
55 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
08 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Note: An earlier Smith poll had been broadcast by Radio 103 FM. The only difference between the two polls is that Labor gained a seat at the expense of Yisrael Beitenu.

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 943 people with a margin of error of 3.2% that was broadcast by Channel 13 on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [08] Shas (Deri)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 33% Don’t know, 31% Gantz

If the Blue & White rotation is cancelled will that increase or decrease the chance you vote for them?

30% Increase, 9% Decrease

Who is showing up to vote at a level of 100% confidence?

87% Otzma, 84% Yamina, 79% Blue & White, 75% Labor, 73% Likud, 70% Yisrael Beitenu,

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Midgam conducted a poll of 605 people with a margin of error of 4% that was broadcast by Channel 12 on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
10 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
08 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
05 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
08 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

41% Netanyahu, 31% Gantz, 19% Neither, 9% Don’t know

Which government do you prefer?

40% Secular Unity Government, 29% Right with Haredim, 16% None of the options, 8% Don’t know, 7% Center-left with the Haredim

Who do you think will be the Prime Minister?

56% Netanyahu, 21% Gantz, 16% Don’t know, 5% Someone else from Likud, 2% Lieberman

Was Netanyahu’s statement about annexing the Jordan Valley political?

61% Yes, 22% Don’t know, 17% No

Who do you believe more Netanyahu or the judicial establishment?

50% Judicial establishment, 34% Netanyahu, 16% Don’t know

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Shvakim Panorama conducted a poll of 3193 people with a margin of error of 1.8% that was published by Ynet on September 13 2019. The poll was conducted September 10-13.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
52 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Friday: Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.

Channel 12 (Midgam/Gava) & Channel 13 (Panel Project HaMidgam/Fuchs) will both release their last polls later tonight. 4 pollsters have already released their last polls: 103 FM/Maariv (Smith), Knesset Channel (Panels/Lazar), Yisrael Hayom (Maagar Mochot/Katz) & Channel 11/Kan (Kantar/Teleseker).

Saturday Night: Tomorrow night I will post the final Knesset Jeremy’s Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls. Additionally, I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis.

Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.

Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.

Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).

Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.

September-October-November: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government.

Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com

Update: Additional polls by Maariv & Ynet have been added. My final prediction has been postponed to Sunday and will appear with the Phase 1 Analysis piece.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls (Updated September 3rd)

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsAVGApril ResultsDifference
1stLikudNetanyahu313139-8
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz303035-5
3rdThe Joint ListOdeh1110.8100.8
4thYaminaShaked1110.655.6
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman109.954.9
6thDemocratic UnionHorwitz77.343.3
7thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman77.38-0.7
8thShasDeri77.28-0.8
9thLaborPeretz65.96-0.1
10thOtherBen Gvir/Etc.0000
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM5656.160-3.9
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM545455-1
Pushing Unity Government109.954.9

Note #1: This average is based on the last 24 polls that were conducted from July 30th until September 3 (last month): 8 Midgam, 5 Smith, 3 Maagar Mochot, 3 Teleseker, 3 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls & 0 Panels.

Note #2: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election. The Zehut list has agreed to resign but has yet to do so officially.

Note #3: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Democratic Union, B) Blue and White & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & Yamina. Shas & UTJ are expected to sign before the deadline on September 6th. The Joint List announced they will not sign with any other list.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: (Updated August 26th)

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsAVGApril ResultsDifference
1stLikudNetanyahu3130.739-8.3
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz3029.635-5.4
3rdYaminaShaked1110.955.9
4thThe Joint ListOdeh1110.9100.9
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman101055
6thDemocratic UnionHorwitz77.543.5
7thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman77.48-0.6
8thShasDeri77.28-0.8
9thLaborPeretz65.86-0.2
10thOtherFeiglin/Ben Gvir/Etc0000
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM5656.260-3.8
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM5453.855-1.2
Pushing Unity Government101055

Note #1: This average is based on the last 17 polls that were conducted from July 30th until August 23rd (last four weeks). (6 Midgam, 4 Smith, 2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls, 1 Teleseker & 0 Panels).

Note #2: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

PlacePartyLeaderAVGApril ResultsDifference
1stLikudNetanyahu30.239-8.8
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz2935-6
3rdUnited RightShaked11.456.4
4thThe Joint ListOdeh11.2101.2
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman10.255.2
6thDemocratic UnionHorwitz844
7thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman7.48-0.6
8thShasDeri78-1
9thLaborPeretz5.66-0.4
10thOther23 Others000
xHave ruled out nominating Gantz for PMx5660-4
xHave ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PMx53.855-1.2
xPushing Unity Governmentx10.255.2

Note #1: This average is based on the last 5 polls that were conducted after all of the joint tickets were publicized. (2 Midgam, 1 Maagar Mochot, 1 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 1 Smith, 0 Teleseker, Direct Polls, Panels, Kantar).

Note #2: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election.

PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremyAvearge6-Poll-AVGApril Results
1stLikud+KulanuNetanyahu3635.439
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz3433.535
3rdYisrael BeitenuLiberman885
4thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman87.58
5thShasDeri778
6thHadash-TaalOdeh76.36
7thUnited Right ListPeretz55.25
8thMeretzZandberg55.24
9thHaYamin HeHadashBennett54.70
10thLaborGabbai54.36
11thRaam-BaladAbbas02.94
12thZehutFeiglin000
13thGesherLevy000
Right-Religious Bloc6967.865
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5152.255

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 6 polls that were released from May 27 to June 3 (2 Panels, 2 Direct Polls, 1 Maagar Mochot, 1 Panel Project HaMidgam, 0 Smith, 0 Teleseker & 0 Midgam).

Note #3: The right-religious bloc is polling at a high of 72 and a low of 66. The center-left-Arab bloc is polling at a high of 54 and a low of 48.

Note #4: Kulanu has merged into the Likud. Labor did not pass in one poll poll. HaYamin HeHadash, Zehut & Gesher were not polled in one of the polls.

Below is a summary of each poll/prediction that was released before the polling blackout from April 6-April 9 2019. For the third consecutive election cycle the KnessetJeremy model was more accurate than any of the final polls that were released to the public.

Party/PollsterActual ResultsKnessetJeremySmithDirect PollsMidgam 
Blue & White3529292930 
Likud3530273126 
Shas85665 
United Torah Judaism86777 
Hadash-Taal67777 
Labor699711 
Yisrael Beitenu54444 
United Right List56665 
Meretz45565 
Kulanu44505 
Raam-Balad44444 
HaYamin HeHadash06676 
Zehut05565 
Gesher00000 
PlaceActual Results1st2nd3rd4th 
Right-Religious Bloc6566666763 
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5554545357 
       
Party/PollsterActual ResultsProjectTelesekerPanelsMaagar MochotMiskar
Blue & White352830303128
Likud352831292831
Shas854566
United Torah Judaism866676
Hadash-Taal668877
Labor611810910
Yisrael Beitenu540400
United Right List576778
Meretz456675
Kulanu445060
Raam-Balad444404
HaYamin HeHadash066667
Zehut066568
Gesher000000
PlaceActual Results5th6th7th8th9th
Right-Religious Bloc656664626666
Center-Left-Arab Bloc555456585454
       
Party/PollsterKnessetJeremyChangeSmithChangeDirect PollsChange
Blue & White296296296
Likud305278314
Shas536262
United Torah Judaism627171
Hadash-Taal7-17-17-1
Labor9-39-37-1
Yisrael Beitenu414141
United Right List6-16-16-1
Meretz5-15-16-2
Kulanu405-104
Raam-Balad404040
HaYamin HeHadash6-66-67-7
Zehut5-55-56-6
Gesher000000
Off by # of seatsKnessetJeremy34Smith36Direct Polls36
Right-Religious Bloc66-166-167-2
Center-Left-Arab Bloc541541532
       
Party/PollsterMidgamChangeProjectChangeTelesekerChange
Blue & White305287305
Likud269287314
Shas535344
United Torah Judaism716262
Hadash-Taal7-1608-2
Labor11-511-58-2
Yisrael Beitenu414105
United Right List507-26-1
Meretz5-15-16-2
Kulanu5-1405-1
Raam-Balad404040
HaYamin HeHadash6-66-66-6
Zehut5-56-66-6
Gesher000000
Off by # of seatsMidgam38Project40Teleseker40
Right-Religious Bloc63266-1641
Center-Left-Arab Bloc57-254156-1
       
Party/PollsterPanelsChangeMaagar MochotChangeMiskarOff By
Blue & White305314287
Likud296287314
Shas536262
United Torah Judaism627162
Hadash-Taal8-27-17-1
Labor10-49-310-4
Yisrael Beitenu410505
United Right List7-27-28-3
Meretz6-27-35-1
Kulanu046-204
Raam-Balad400440
HaYamin HeHadash6-66-67-7
Zehut5-56-68-8
Gesher000000
Off by # of seatsPanels42Maagar Mochot46Miskar48
Right-Religious Bloc62366-166-1
Center-Left-Arab Bloc58-3541541