Place | Party | Leader | KnessetJeremy Average (20 Polls) | Current Seats |
1st | Blue & White | Gantz | 34.5 | 33 |
2nd | Likud | Netanyahu | 32.8 | 32 |
3rd | Joint List | Odeh | 12.8 | 13 |
4th | Yisrael Beitenu | Lieberman | 8 | 8 |
5th | Shas | Deri | 7.95 | 9 |
6th | UTJ | Litzman | 7.3 | 7 |
7th | HaYamin HeHadash | Bennett | 5.95 | 3 |
8th | Labor | A. Peretz | 4.95 | 6 |
9th | Democratic Union | Horowitz | 4.55 | 5 |
10th | United Right List | R. Peretz | 1.2 | 4 |
11th | Otzma | Ben Gvir | 0 | 0 |
x | Bloc | KnessetJeremy Average (20 Polls) | Current Seats | x |
x | Center-Left-Arab | 57.1 | 57 | |
x | Right-Religious | 54.9 | 55 | |
x | Lieberman | 8 | 8 |
Note #1: The KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 20 polls that were released by Midgam (6), Maagar Mochot (6), Panel Project HaMdigam (4), Kantar (2), Smith (1), & Panels (1). The first poll was Oct 7 and the last poll was Dec 10. 3 polls were conducted in October, 12 polls were conducted in November & 5 polls were conducted in December.
Note #2: Otzma did not pass the electoral threshold in any of the polls. United Right List (Bayit Yehudi+Tekuma/National Union) did not pass the electoral threshold in nine polls and their results were calculated as zero seats to allow me to maintain an 120-seat framework for the blocs. In five polls that polled the Yamina alliance together. That means the party-by-party results are different than the bloc results as a result.
Note #3: The first poll conducted after the election was triggered is not included in the above average but can be found at this link: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/12/12/1st-poll-of-2020-election-blue-white-35-likud-32-joint-list-13-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8-shas-8-hayamin-hehadash-6/
Avoda lost 1 seat to Gantz and R. Peretz 3 seats to Bennet. Other than that it is a copy of today’s Knesset. Without new alliances, this third election will be useless…