Tag Archive: Polls


Phase 1 Prediction Analysis

The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yamina-8-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8/

This is the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2019:

PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremy Prediction ModelChangeLast KnessetJeremy AVG
1stLikudNetanyahu38533
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz35332
3rdThe Joint ListOdeh11011
4thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman918
5thShasDeri927
6thYaminaShaked7-18
7thYisrael BeitenuLiberman6-28
8thLaborPeretz505
9thDemocratic UnionHorwitz0 (3)-55
10thOtzma/OtherBen Gvir0 (3)-33
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM63459
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM51-253
Pushing Unity Government6-28

Few quick notes:

*For those who are wondering: In 2013 my mode had a 2-seat margin of error. In 2015 I had a 1-seat margin of error. In April 2019 I had a 3-seat margin of error. In all three elections there were two “exceptions” that did not meet the margin of error and the rest met the margin of error. This happen because there is usually a major swing where one party receives most of the undecided voters at the last minute that is difficult to project.

Phase 1 Recap:

#1 Likud: 38 seats:

How we got here: It took Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seven elections as Likud’s leader (1996, 1999, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015) to reach his peak of 35 seats. It didn’t matter because he couldn’t form a government and that is why we have repeat elections. Kahlon merged his Kulanu party into the Likud. This time it looks like Likud will gain an extra three seats – mostly from voters who voted for right-wing parties that did not pass the electoral threshold in April and partly from former Kulanu voters.

Why they could get more: If Netanyahu’s decision to repeat his 2015 & 2019A campaign strategy of a last-minute effort to attract right-wing voters from his bloc to Likud is a success. The danger of this approach is that if he succeeds too much, as he did in April, he might send some of his coalition partners under the electoral threshold, which could put his re-election as Prime Minister in jeopardy.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of Likud voters feel that Netanyahu has won and choose to skip the voting booth on their way to the beach or Yamina is able to win back some of the voters that have left for Likud in recent days.

#2 Blue & White: 35 seats:

How we got here: Ahead of the April elections, after years of scenario polls, the “big four” of Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashekenazi joined up to create the latest mega-party that markets itself as an alternative to Netanyahu.  Gantz succeeded where Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in 2009 (28 seats) & Issac Herzog’s Zionist Union (24 seats) failed, as Blue & White won 35 seats in April. Right now it looks like Blue & White will retain their 35 seats.

Why they could get more: If Gantz is able to convince more anti-Netanyahu voters that he is the only alternative to Netanyahu.

Why they could get less: If Labor & Democratic Union voters decide to bolt back to their previous parties because they believe Gantz might take their votes and sit in a coalition government with Netanyahu.

#3 Joint List: 11 seats:

How we got here: The band is back together after splitting in April which led to a drop in seats compared to 2015. Turnout is expected to be higher in the non-Jewish sector this time around which will lead to an extra seat.

Why they could get more: If turnout is higher.

Why they could get less: If turnout is lower.

#4-tie UTJ: 9 seats:

How we got here: Before the April elections Agudat Yisrael agreed to Degel HaTorah’s terms and for the first time the two Ashkenazi parties that make up the faction are running on a 50%-50% slate. This move helped increase turnout among the Lithuanian sector and the party won 8 seats. Overall turnout is expected to be lower this time around and UTJ is expected to maintain their high turnout.

Why they could get more: If the general turnout is even lower than expected so UTJ is in a great spot to win a 10th seat.

Why they could get less: The more likely option is that the overall turnout is surprisingly high. The less likely option is if a larger number of undecided Haredi voters choose to vote for non-Haredi parties.

#4-tie Shas: 9 seats:

How we got here: As usual Shas, like UTJ, is focused on its base and most of the campaign has been devoted to bring-out-the-vote either through emotionally driven campaign videos or their ground game for election day.

Why they could get more: If additional Sephardi voters decide that Aryeh Deri represents them better than anyone else or that the late Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef still expects them to vote for Shas.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#6 Yamina: 7 seats:

How we got here: Naftali Bennett & Ayelet Shaked, the two most popular ministers of the 2015-2019 term in a series of polls before the elections, formed a new party 100 days before the April election but failed to pass the electoral threshold. Bennett handed control of the party over to Shaked who decided to run on a joint ticket with Bayit Yehudi and Tekuma.

Why they could get more: Early polls had the party in double digits and there are many undecided voters who list them as their second option.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#7 Yisrael Beitenu: 6 seats:

How we got here: Avigdor Liberman won 5 seats in the April elections. He nominated Netanyahu for Prime Minister. However, he refused to sign a coalition agreement with him. Instead of allowing Gantz the chance to form a government Liberman chose to support Netanyahu’s initiative for another election. Yisrael Beitenu chose to push for a national unity government and carry the flag of religion and state issues in this election. The initial results led them to double digit numbers. However, after Blue & White decided to champion their causes as well leading to a sharp decline in support. The final average gave them 8 seats and I expect them to lose another 2.

Why they could get more: If Lieberman is able to win back the votes he has lost to Blue & White in recent days.

Why they could get less: If Lieberman can’t stop the bleeding he might start flirting with the electoral threshold.

#8 Labor: 5 Seats:

How we got here: Amir Peretz replaced Avi Gabbai as leader of the historic party that established the country. He will be judged based on his decision to run on a joint ticket with Orly Levy’s Gesher over a joint ticket with Meretz.

Why they could get more: If Blue & White stumble during the stretch run there are many undecided voters on the center-left bloc that name Labor as their second choice.

Why they could get less: If even more voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc or decide to vote for the Democratic Union.

#9 Democratic Union: 0 (3) seats:

How we got here: Tamar Zandberg led Meretz to 4 seats and was ousted in the subsequent primary for Nitzan Horovitz. The new Meretz leader made a deal to run with Ehud Barak’s new party and the green movement which placed Labor MK Stav Shafir at its head. 4 of the top 6 spots are Meretz candidates. Like HaYamin HeHadash (New Right) of the last election the Democratic Union is losing voters at a fast pace to its counterpart in the bloc. The final average has them at 5 and I expect them to keep bleeding votes until they fall under the threshold.

Why they could get more: If the Democratic Union is able to convince undecided center-left voters that they are the only ones that can pull Gantz to the left.

Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.

#10 Otzma: 0 (3) seats:

How we got here: After the disqualification of multiple candidates Itamar Ben Gvir leads a list of relatively unknown candidates on a list that is passing in five of the last seven polls. In April, all of the polls showed both HaYamin HeHadash & Zehut passing the electoral threshold.

Why they could get more: Extremely low turnout.

Why they could get less: If Likud & Yamina are successful in saving more right wing votes from falling under the electoral threshold.

Right-Religious Bloc: 63

Likud 38 – UTJ 9 – Shas 9 – Yamina 7

How we got here: In April there was eight parties in the bloc but that has been reduced to four parties that are expected to pass the threshold. Kulanu and Zehut merged into Likud, HaYamin HeHadash joined the others in the Union of Right Parties and Yisrael Beitenu removed themselves from the bloc. Otzma is not expected to pass.

Why they could get more: If Likud is able to pick up undecided voters who are leaning Yisrael Beitenu.

Why they could get less: If somehow Netanyahu is too successful and Yamina drops under the electoral threshold.

Center-Left-Arab Bloc: 51

Blue & White 35 – Joint List 11 – Labor 5

How we got here: In April there was 5 parties that are ruling out joining a Netanyahu Government as part of their campaign. The Joint List is back however it looks like the Democratic Union might fall under the threshold.

Why they could get more: If Blue & White is able to pick up undecided voters who are leaning Yisrael Beitenu.

Why they could get less: If both Labor & Democratic Union fall under the threshold.

Yisrael Beitenu Bloc: 6

How we got here: Liberman set himself up to be the kingmaker.

Why they could get more: If he is able to win back the seats he has lost in recent days.

Why they could get less: If both Likud and Blue & White keep taking away more votes.

Smith conducted a poll of 650 people with a margin of error of 3.9% that was published by the Jerusalem Post & Maariv on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
05 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

3.1% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
55 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
08 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Note: An earlier Smith poll had been broadcast by Radio 103 FM. The only difference between the two polls is that Labor gained a seat at the expense of Yisrael Beitenu.

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 943 people with a margin of error of 3.2% that was broadcast by Channel 13 on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [08] Shas (Deri)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 33% Don’t know, 31% Gantz

If the Blue & White rotation is cancelled will that increase or decrease the chance you vote for them?

30% Increase, 9% Decrease

Who is showing up to vote at a level of 100% confidence?

87% Otzma, 84% Yamina, 79% Blue & White, 75% Labor, 73% Likud, 70% Yisrael Beitenu,

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Midgam conducted a poll of 605 people with a margin of error of 4% that was broadcast by Channel 12 on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
10 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
08 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
05 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
08 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

41% Netanyahu, 31% Gantz, 19% Neither, 9% Don’t know

Which government do you prefer?

40% Secular Unity Government, 29% Right with Haredim, 16% None of the options, 8% Don’t know, 7% Center-left with the Haredim

Who do you think will be the Prime Minister?

56% Netanyahu, 21% Gantz, 16% Don’t know, 5% Someone else from Likud, 2% Lieberman

Was Netanyahu’s statement about annexing the Jordan Valley political?

61% Yes, 22% Don’t know, 17% No

Who do you believe more Netanyahu or the judicial establishment?

50% Judicial establishment, 34% Netanyahu, 16% Don’t know

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Shvakim Panorama conducted a poll of 3193 people with a margin of error of 1.8% that was published by Ynet on September 13 2019. The poll was conducted September 10-13.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
52 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Friday: Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.

Channel 12 (Midgam/Gava) & Channel 13 (Panel Project HaMidgam/Fuchs) will both release their last polls later tonight. 4 pollsters have already released their last polls: 103 FM/Maariv (Smith), Knesset Channel (Panels/Lazar), Yisrael Hayom (Maagar Mochot/Katz) & Channel 11/Kan (Kantar/Teleseker).

Saturday Night: Tomorrow night I will post the final Knesset Jeremy’s Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls. Additionally, I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis.

Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.

Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.

Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).

Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.

September-October-November: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government.

Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com

Update: Additional polls by Maariv & Ynet have been added. My final prediction has been postponed to Sunday and will appear with the Phase 1 Analysis piece.

Smith conducted a poll of 603 people with a margin of error of 4% that was broadcast by 103 FM on September 12 2019. The poll was conducted September 11-12.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.9% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Note: 14% of voters are undecided

Kantar/Teleseker conducted a poll of 1360 people with a margin of error of 4.3% that was broadcast by Channel 11 on September 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
31 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
07 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 1003 people with a margin of error of 2.8% that was broadcast by I24 News & published by Yisrael Hayom on September 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
31 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

42% Netanyahu, 28% Gantz, 15% Don’t know, 4% Shaked, 3% Lieberman, 3% Peretz, 3% Barak, 2% Lapid

What are the chances you will vote on election day?

66% (100%), 21% (99%-76%), 4% (75%-51%), 9% (0%-50%)

Who will deal best with the following issues:

Security: 48% Netanyahu, 35% Gantz, 17% Don’t know
Economic: 41% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 25% Don’t know
Social: 39% Gantz, 33% Netanyahu, 28% Don’t know

Panels conducted a poll of 539 people with a margin of error of 4.4% that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on September 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
10 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.9% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

60 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
51 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)