Category: Weekly Poll Avg


Exit polls 2019:

PlacePartyLeaderChannel 11Channel 12Channel 13Channel 20i24 newsYnetExit Poll AVGExit Poll Seats
1stBlue & WhiteGantz37373633333334.936
2ndLikudNetanyahu3633362727273133
3rdLaborGabbai8679897.99
4thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman7777756.77
5thShasDeri7676576.37
6thHadash-TaalOdeh6675776.37
7thUnited Right ListPeretz5546745.26
8thKulanuKahlon54466556
9thMeretzZandberg5546544.85
10thHaYamin HeHadashBennett0 (2.51%)046763.84
11thRaam-BaladAbbas06044430
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman4540042.80
13thZehutFeiglin0 (2.42%)005452.30
14thGesherLevy0 (1.73%)0000000
Right-Religious Bloc64606663636363.263
Center-Left-Arab Bloc56605457575756.857

Notes (I’lll update as more methodology is released): Channel 11 was conducted by TNS/Teleseker in 60 polling stations. Channel 12 was conducted by Midgam. Channel 13 was conducted by Dialog. Channel 20 was conducted by Maagar Mochot. I24news was conducted by Sarid with 3,756 people with a 1.8% +/- margin of error. Ynet was conducted by Pardes with over 10,000 people.

Here is the average of the 5 exit polls from 2015:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/18/average-of-5-exit-polls-likud-26-2-zionist-union-25-6-joint-arab-list-13-yesh-atid-11-8-kulanu-9-6-bayit-yehudi-8-4-shas-7-2/

Takeaway: The average was more accurate than any individual exit poll.

Here is the 2015 exit poll average compared to the 2015 election results.

Takeaway: The average was accurate for most of the parties with a +/-1 seat margin of error.

https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/18/comparing-results-after-over-99-of-results-to-exit-polls-and-knesset-jeremy-model/


KnessetJeremy Schedule:

Friday Afternoon: I posted the last Weekly Average which you can find below. Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.

Saturday Night: I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis. 

Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.

Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.

Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).

Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.

April-May-June: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government which I predict will take place on the first week of June.

Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday April 6 2019.

  • The original post went out Friday afternoon. This updated version includes the last poll which was aired on Friday night. There was no change to the seat count that was posted yesterday.
PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 14 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3029.7-0.830.511
2ndLikudNetanyahu2928.3-0.428.729
3rdLaborGabbai109.70.69.118
4thHadash-TaalOdeh87-0.27.26
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.5-0.16.66
6thUnited Right ListPeretz76.106.15
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett65.7-0.25.93
8thMeretzZandberg65.60.55.15
9thShasDeri65.3-0.15.47
10thZehutFeiglin65.30.25.10
11thKulanuKahlon54.60.54.110
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman030.52.55
13thRaam-BaladAbbas02.902.97
14thOther27 Others00.3-0.50.88
Right-Religious Bloc6664.80.464.466
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5455.2-0.455.654

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 14 polls that were released from Friday afternoon March 30 to Friday evening April 5 (3 Midgam, 3 Maagar Mochot, 3 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Teleseker & 0 Direct Polls).

Note #3: For a better understanding of how a Prime Minister is elected read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Meretz, B) HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & United Right List, D) Shas & UTJ & E) Hadash-Taal & Raam-Balad.

Note #5: Kulanu passed the electoral threshold in 13 of 14 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 10 polls, Yisrael Beitenu passed in 10 polls and Gesher passed in 1 poll this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Shas-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Zehut is polling at a high of 69 and a low of 62. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad & Gesher when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 58 and a low of 51.

Note #7: Blue & White is the largest party in 9 of the 14 polls this week, Likud leads Blue & White in 4 polls, and one poll has them both tied.

Note #8: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 6 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Important Note #1: KnessetJeremy.com celebrated our 9th anniversary this week.
Important Note #2: The deadline for publishing polls is on Friday. The final polling average and prediction will be released on that date.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Sunday March 30th 2019.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 13 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3130.50.230.311
2ndLikudNetanyahu2928.7-0.32929
3rdLaborGabbai109.10.1918
4thHadash-TaalOdeh87.2-0.47.66
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.606.66
6thUnited Right ListPeretz76.1-0.26.35
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett65.90.25.73
8thShasDeri65.40.54.97
9thMeretzZandberg65.1-0.35.45
10thZehutFeiglin65.10.74.40
11thKulanuKahlon44.10.43.710
12thRaam-BaladAbbas02.902.97
13thYisrael BeitenuLiberman02.5-1.23.75
14thOther28 Others00.80.30.58
Right-Religious Bloc6564.40.164.366
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5555.6-0.155.754

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 10 polls that were released from March 24 to March 30 (3 Midgam, 2 Panel Project HaMidgam, Panels, Smith, Maagar Mochot, Teleseker & Direct Polls).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Meretz, B) HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & United Right List, D) Shas & UTJ & E) Hadash-Taal & Raam-Balad.

Note #5: Kulanu passed the electoral threshold in 9 of 10 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 7 polls, Yisrael Beitenu passed in 6 polls and Gesher passed in 2 polls this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Shas-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Zehut is polling at a high of 68 and a low of 59. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad & Gesher when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 61 and a low of 52.

Note #6: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 6 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Sunday March 24th 2019.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 12 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3130.3-1.531.811
2ndLikudNetanyahu29290.528.529
3rdLaborGabbai990.58.518
4thHadash-TaalOdeh87.60.47.26
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.6-0.26.86
6thUnited Right ListPeretz66.3-0.775
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett65.7-0.15.83
8thMeretzZandberg65.4-0.665
9thShasDeri54.9-0.65.57
10thZehutFeiglin54.40.14.30
11thKulanuKahlon43.70.53.210
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman43.70.53.25
13thRaam-BaladAbbas02.90.72.27
14thOther30 Others00.50.508
Right-Religious Bloc6664.30.164.266
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5455.7-0.155.854

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 7 polls that were released from March 17 to March 22 (2 Panels, Smith, Maagar Mochot, Midgam, Panel Project HaMidgam & Direct Polls).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange agreements have been signed between Labor & Meretz, HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, Likud & United Right List, Shas & UTJ. The deadline for submitting voter exchange agreements is March 29.

Note #5: Yisrael Beitenu & Kulanu both passed the electoral threshold in 6 of 7 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 5 of the 7 polls this week. Gesher passed in 1 poll this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Shas-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Zehut is polling at a high of 68 and a low of 62. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad & Gesher when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 58 and a low of 52.

Note #6: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 4 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Monday March 17th 2019.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 11 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3231.8-1.833.611
2ndLikudNetanyahu2928.5-0.52929
3rdLaborGabbai98.50.18.418
4thHadash-TaalOdeh77.2-1.18.36
5thUnited Right ListPeretz770.46.65
6thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.8-0.276
7thMeretzZandberg660.75.35
8thHaYamin HeHadashBennett65.8-0.263
9thShasDeri55.50.557
10thZehutFeiglin44.32.61.70
11thKulanuKahlon43.2-1.44.610
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman43.21.51.75
13thRaam-BaladAbbas02.2-0.12.37
14thOther30 Others00-0.60.68
Right-Religious Bloc6664.23.26166
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5455.8-3.25954

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 4 polls that were released from March 11 to March 15 (Maagar Mochot, Midgam, Panel Project HaMidgam & Direct Polls).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange agreements have been signed between Labor & Meretz, HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, Likud & United Right List, Shas & UTJ. The deadline for submitting voter exchange agreements is March 29.

Note #5: Yisrael Beitenu & Kulanu both passed the electoral threshold in 3 of 4 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 2 of the 4 polls this week. Zehut, for the first time, passed in all of the polls conducted this week. Gesher did not pass in any poll this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu (including Zehut when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 66 and a low of 63. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 57 and a low of 54.

Note #6: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 4 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Monday March 11th 2019.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 10 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3433.6-2.536.111
2ndLikudNetanyahu30290.728.329
3rdLaborGabbai98.41.56.918
4thHadash-TaalOdeh98.30.386
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman870.46.66
6thUnited Right ListPeretz76.6-0.97.55
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett76-0.96.93
8thMeretzZandberg65.3-0.25.55
9thShasDeri55-0.15.17
10thKulanuKahlon54.60.6410
11thRaam-BaladAbbas02.30.22.17
12thOther31 Others02.20.228
13thYisrael BeitenuLiberman01.70.715
Right-Religious Bloc62610.460.666
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5859-0.459.454

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 7 polls that were released from March 5 to March 10 (Panels, Smith, Teleseker, Maagar Mochot, Dialog & 2 from Midgam).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange agreements have been signed between Labor & Meretz, HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, Likud & United Right List, Shas & UTJ. The deadline for submitting voter exchange agreements is March 29.

Note #5: Raam Balad passed the electoral threshold in 4 of the 7 polls this week, Yisrael Beitenu & Zehut both passed in 3 polls this week. Gesher only passed in one poll this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu (including Zehut when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 63 and a low of 59. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 61 and a low of 57.

Note #6: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 4 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday March 3rd 2018.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 9 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3736.11.534.611
2ndLikudNetanyahu2928.3-230.329
3rdHadash-TaalOdeh980.47.66
4thUnited Right ListPeretz87.51.95.65
5thHaYamin HeHadashBennett76.9-0.27.13
6thLaborGabbai76.9-17.918
7thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.6-0.16.76
8thMeretzZandberg65.514.55
9thShasDeri65.1-0.35.47
10thKulanuKahlon441.12.910
11thRaam-BaladAbbas02.1-1.73.87
12thOther35 Others02208
13thYisrael BeitenuLiberman01-2.63.65
Right-Religious Bloc6160.6-161.666
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5959.4158.454

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 8 polls that were released.

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday February 25th 2018.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 8 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3534.63.63111
2ndLikudNetanyahu3030.3-0.73129
3rdLaborGabbai87.9-1.1918
4thHadash-TaalOdeh87.61.46.26
5thHaYamin HeHadashBennett77.1-0.77.83
6thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.7-0.87.56
7thUnited Right ListPeretz65.65.605
8thShasDeri65.40.25.27
9thMeretzZandberg54.5-0.75.25
10thRaam-BaladAbbas43.8-2.76.57
11thYisrael BeitenuLiberman43.60.13.55
12thKulanuKahlon02.9-0.93.810
13thOther35 Others00-3.33.38
Right-Religious Bloc6061.61.66066
Center-Left-Arab Bloc6058.4-1.66054

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on 11 polls that were released from Feb 17-24 (4 Midgam, 3 Direct Polls, 2 Panels, 1 Panel Project HaMidgam and 1 Maagar Mochot).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: The official candidate lists were submitted this past week on Wed Feb 20 & Thurs Feb 21 2019. The polls conducted before the formation of Blue & White are scenario polls of Gantz + Lapid.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday February 16th 2018.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 7 AVGCurrent
1stLikudNetanyahu313103130
2ndIsrael ResilienceGantz2019.8-1.521.30
3rdYesh AtidLapid1211.20.310.911
4thLaborGabbai993.55.518
5thHaYamin HeHadashBennett87.80.67.23
6thUTJLitzman87.516.56
7thJoint ListOdeh76.5-0.16.612
8thTaalTibi76.20.65.61
9thShasDeri55.20.34.97
10thMeretzZandberg55.20.44.85
11thKulanuKahlon43.8-0.34.110
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman43.5-0.545
13thGesherLevy02021
14thOtherOthers01.3-0.41.70
15thBayit YehudiPeretz00-3.73.75
16thLivniLivni00-0.20.26
Right-Religious6060-2.962.966
Center-Left-Arab60602.957.154

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on four polls that were released from Feb 12-14 (1 Panel Project HaMidgam, 1 Direct Polls, 1 Maagar Mochot and 1 Midgam).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: The official candidate lists will be submitted this coming week on Wed Feb 20 & Thurs Feb 21 2019.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday February 9th 2018.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 6 AVGCurrent
1stLikudNetanyahu313113030
2ndIsrael ResilienceGantz2221.3-0.521.80
3rdYesh AtidLapid1110.90.710.211
4thHaYamin HeHadashBennett87.20.273
5thJoint ListOdeh76.60.46.212
6thUTJLitzman76.506.56
7thTaalTibi65.6-0.66.21
8thLaborGabbai65.5-1.36.818
9thShasDeri54.90.44.57
10thMeretzZandberg54.804.85
11thKulanuKahlon44.1-0.44.510
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman44-0.54.55
13thBayit YehudiPeretz43.7-0.345
14thGesherLevy02-131
15thOtherOthers01.71.700
16thLivniLivni00.20.206
Right-Religious6362.91.96166
Center-Left-Arab5757.1-1.95954

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on ten polls that were conducted from Feb 1-9 (2 Panels, 2 Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls, 2 Maagar Mochot, 1 Midgam and 1 Smith polls).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: The official candidate lists will be submitted on Feb 20-21 2019.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)