Category: Weekly Poll Avg


The KnessetJeremy Average shows Netanyahu’s bloc dropping from 60 to 59 seats. Likud took the largest drop of 0.8 of seat. Labor dropped for the second straight week, this week 0.2 compared to 0.4 last week. Hadash-Taal also dropped for the second straight week, with the same marks both weeks.

Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu gained 0.4 and Gantz’s party also gained 0.4 this week. Lapid gained 0.2 for the second consecutive week. Smotrich’s party also gained 0.2 following a 0.2 gain last week.

PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Likud3232.433.2-0.8
Yesh Atid242423.80.2
National Unity1312.612.20.4
Religious Zionist1212.2120.2
Shas88.28.20
UTJ7770
Yisrael Beitenu665.60.4
Labor54.85-0.2
Meretz54.84.80
Hadash-Taal444.2-0.2
Raam4440
     
Netanyahu Bloc59   
Lapid w/H-T61   
Lapid w/o H-T57   
     
PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Bayit Yehudi2.42%1.98%0.02%
Balad1.71.48%1.64%-0.16%
Kara Party1.21.02%0.34%0.68%
Zalika Party10.86%0.94%-0.08%
Burning Youth0.60.52%0.70%-0.18%

The KnessetJeremy Average shows a 60-60 tie between the Netanyahu bloc and the Lapid bloc + Hadash-Taal. Likud gained the most with 0.6%. Religious Zionist went up 0.2 to take 3rd place away from Gantz. Yesh Atid and Raam also gained 0.2%. Gantz’s National Unity lost 0.2% from the previous average and Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu also lost 0.2% this week. Labor and Hadash-Taal both lost 0.4% each.

We are starting to see more and more polls that give Netanyahu’s bloc 61 or more seats. This trend should continue going into next week and it is likely the next average will already give the former Prime Minister a majority.

PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Likud3333.232.60.6
Yesh Atid2423.823.60.2
Religious Zionist1212.2120.2
National Unity121212.2-0.2
Shas88.28.20
UTJ7770
Yisrael Beitenu65.65.8-0.2
Labor555.4-0.4
Meretz54.84.80
Raam44.240.2
Hadash-Taal444.4-0.4
  
Netanyahu Bloc60
Lapid w/H-T60
Lapid w/o H-T56
  

The KnessetJeremy Average 6 weeks out from election day shows a 60-60 tie between the Netanyahu bloc and the Lapid bloc + Hadash-Taal.

If we look at the snapshot 6 weeks before the previous election, we will see that 8 of the 13 parties that would pass the threshold were already within a seat of their election results.

The five exceptions are New Hope and Yamina who would gradually drop, losing a good portion of support to Blue & White, and the Joint List who would lose support to Raam.

It is important to note that at this time in the previous election Raam only passed the electoral threshold in one of the four polls conducted after the submission of the lists. Blue & White passed in two of the four.

Over the coming weeks I will monitor the trend of the 2022 election and attempt to predict the direction of momentum in this election based on the 2021 data.

2022 Election PartyPoll Seat EstPoll Avg  
Likud3332.6  
Yesh Atid2423.6  
National Unity1212.2  
Religious Zionist1212  
Shas88.2  
UTJ77  
Yisrael Beitenu65.8  
Labor55.4  
Meretz54.8  
Hadash-Taal44.4  
Raam44  
     
Netanyahu Bloc60   
Lapid w/H-T60   
Lapid w/o H-T56   
     
2021 Election PartyPoll Seat EstPoll AvgGapElex Results
Likud3029.25030
Yesh Atid1716.75017
New Hope1514.25-96
Yamina1111-47
Joint List99-36
Shas87.7519
Yisrael Beitenu7707
UTJ76.7507
Labor 66.2517
Religious Zionist54.516
Meretz54.516
Blue & White0288
Raam0144

Unofficial 23rd Knesset Results (official results will be released on Monday):

Party22nd KnessetChange23rd Knesset  
Likud 32436  
Blue & White33033  
Joint List 13215  
Shas909  
Labor-Gesher-Meretz11-47  
UTJ707  
Yisrael Beitenu8-17  
Yamina7-16  
      
Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 255358  
Nominated Gantz in Phase 257 (54)-255  
Last time did not nominate8 (11)-17  
      
PartyKnesset Jeremy AVGChannel 11 Exit PollChannel 12 Exit PollChannel 13 Exit PollResults
Likud 3436373736
Blue & White3333333233
Joint List 1415141415
Shas99999
Labor-Gesher-Meretz96767
UTJ88787
Yisrael Beitenu66687
Yamina77766
      
Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 25860606058
Nominated Gantz in Phase 25654545255
Last time did not nominate66687

Notes: Turnout 71.46%. Disqualified votes 25,053. Threshold 149,004 votes. Seat Measurement 37,897 votes.

Final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average:

PartyAVGSeats
Likud 34.334
Blue & White33.433
Joint List 13.914
Labor-Gesher-Meretz8.79
Shas 8.49
UTJ7.58
Yamina7.47
Yisrael Beitenu6.46
Phase 2 Nominations from 2nd Electionn/an/a
Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 257.658
Nominated Gantz in Phase 25656
Last time did not nominate6.46

Note #1: The KnessetJeremy Average is based on the last 7 polls that were released by Midgam (1), Smith (1), Maagar Mochot (1), Kantar (1), Panels (1), Project HaMidgam (1) & Direct Polls (1).

Knesset Jeremy Polling Average. State of the race updated on Jan 1st 2020.

PlacePartyLeader2019 – 3rd Election (7 Polls)Between 2nd & 3rd Election (20 Polls)Current Seats
1stBlue & WhiteGantz35.634.533
2ndLikud Netanyahu32.132.832
3rdJoint List Odeh13.112.813
4thShas Deri8.17.959
5thYisrael BeitenuLieberman7.688
6thUTJLitzman7.17.37
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett5.65.953
8thLaborA. Peretz5.34.956
9thDemocratic UnionHorowitz3.74.555
10thUnited Right ListR. Peretz1.81.24
Bloc2019 – 3rd Election (7 Polls)Between 2nd & 3rd Election (20 Polls)Current Seats
Center-Left-Arab57.757.157
Right-Religious54.754.955
Lieberman7.688

Note #1: The current KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 7 polls that were released by Midgam (2), Smith (2), Maagar Mochot (1), Kantar (1) & Panels (1). The first poll was broadcast on December 12th 2019 and the last poll was broadcast on December 29 2019.

Note #2: The previous KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 20 polls that were released by Midgam (6), Maagar Mochot (6), Panel Project HaMdigam (4), Kantar (2), Smith (1), & Panels (1). The first poll was Oct 7 and the last poll was Dec 10. 3 polls were conducted in October, 12 polls were conducted in November & 5 polls were conducted in December.

Note #3: Results are calculated to allow me to maintain an 120-seat framework for the blocs.

PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremy Average (20 Polls)Current Seats
1stBlue & WhiteGantz34.533
2ndLikud Netanyahu32.832
3rdJoint List Odeh12.813
4thYisrael BeitenuLieberman88
5thShas Deri7.959
6thUTJLitzman7.37
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett5.953
8thLaborA. Peretz4.956
9thDemocratic UnionHorowitz4.555
10thUnited Right ListR. Peretz1.24
11thOtzmaBen Gvir00
xBloc KnessetJeremy Average (20 Polls) Current Seats x
xCenter-Left-Arab57.157
xRight-Religious54.955
xLieberman88

Note #1: The KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 20 polls that were released by Midgam (6), Maagar Mochot (6), Panel Project HaMdigam (4), Kantar (2), Smith (1), & Panels (1). The first poll was Oct 7 and the last poll was Dec 10. 3 polls were conducted in October, 12 polls were conducted in November & 5 polls were conducted in December.

Note #2: Otzma did not pass the electoral threshold in any of the polls. United Right List (Bayit Yehudi+Tekuma/National Union) did not pass the electoral threshold in nine polls and their results were calculated as zero seats to allow me to maintain an 120-seat framework for the blocs. In five polls that polled the Yamina alliance together. That means the party-by-party results are different than the bloc results as a result.

Note #3: The first poll conducted after the election was triggered is not included in the above average but can be found at this link: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/12/12/1st-poll-of-2020-election-blue-white-35-likud-32-joint-list-13-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8-shas-8-hayamin-hehadash-6/

This post includes three tables. The election results, the exit poll averages and the accuracy of the exit polls.

The final results including the double envelopes/absentee ballots are expected either tomorrow night or Friday morning. The results must be certified eight days after the election – September 25th.

President Rivlin can ask Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer permission to start the Phase 2 consultations before the Phase 1 results are certified. It is at Meltzer’s discretion to agree or not. In the April election Meltzer allowed Rivlin to carry out his consultations before the results were certified.

Table 1: Final Results before Double Envelopes (Absentee Voting)

PartyLeaderSeatsPercentage Votes
Blue & WhiteGantz3325.66% 1,035,624
LikudNetanyahu3225.03% 1,010,237
Joint ListOdeh1210.72% 432,741
ShasDeri97.57% 305,712
Yisrael BeitenuLieberman87.12% 287,305
UTJLitzmna86.23% 251,645
YaminaShaked75.72% 230,907
LaborPeretz64.81% 194,211
Democratic UnionHorowitz54.30% 173,374
Under the 3.25% Electoral Threshold (Under 6K not listed)    
OtzmaBen Gvir01.87% 75,301
TzometGreen00.34% 13,622

Table 2: Each Exit Poll & Exit Poll AVG

PartyExit Poll AVGChannel 11Channel 13Channel 12
Blue & White33323334
Likud32323133
Joint List12121311
Shas8.7998
Yisrael Beitenu8.71088
UTJ8888
Yamina7768
Labor5.3565
Democratic Union5.3565

Table 3: Accuracy of Exit Poll AVG

PartyExit Poll AVGCurrent ResultsDifference
Blue & White33330
Likud32320
Joint List12120
Shas8.79-0.3
Yisrael Beitenu8.78-0.7
UTJ880
Yamina770
Labor5.36-0.7
Democratic Union5.35-0.07

The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yamina-8-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8

The final Knesset Jeremy Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/16/phase-1-knesset-election-prediction-analysis/

The final Knesset Jeremy Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/17/phase-2-nominations-at-presidents-residence-prediction-analysis/

The rest of the schedule: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis

There are three votes that determine the Israeli Prime Minister. The first, or as I call it “Phase 1”, takes place tomorrow – the Knesset election for Israel’s legislative branch. The second, or as I call it “Phase 2”, takes place when the parties that enter the Knesset nominate a Prime Minister candidate at the President’s Residence. The third, or as I call it “Phase 3”, takes place when the person who was handed the mandate to form a coalition government presents his new government for a confidence vote in the Knesset.

In my previous posts I provided my predictions for Phase 1 and Phase 2. In this piece I will present my predictions for Phase 3.

Option #1: 63 MK coalition for Netanyahu: 38 Likud, 9 UTJ, 9 Shas, 7 Yamina

In this scenario all of the parties who nominated Netanyahu join his coalition.

Option #2: 66 MK coalition for Gantz: 35 Blue & White, *8 UTJ, *8 Shas, 6 Yisrael Beitenu, 5 Labor, *4 Democratic Union

This can happen if Gantz is given the mandate first to form a government or if he is given the mandate second. Either way, in this scenario, which takes into account my 3-seat margin of error, Gantz leads a coalition with the Haredim, Yisrael Beitenu and has the ability to either leave out Labor or Meretz if he so desires. The Joint List serves as a placeholder between Phase 2 and Phase 3 so that Gantz can form a government with both Shas & UTJ. In this scenario which is highly unlikely Lapid is able to sit with UTJ and Shas, Yaalon is able to sit with Lieberman and the Democratic Union is somehow able to sit with Yisrael Beitenu, UTJ & Shas.

Option #3: 73 MK National Unity Government with 38 Likud and 35 Blue & White.

There is no need for Yisrael Beitenu. This option needs to overcome to hurdle that Gantz is ruling out joining Netanyahu in the hopes that Netanyahu fails to form a government and Gantz will get the second crack at forming a coalition. This scenario can happen if Gantz gets the mandate first, fails and Netanyahu chooses to bring Blue & White into his government over negotiating with the other parties. In this scenario Netanyahu either remains Prime Minister for the entire term or he agrees to a rotation where he will step down at some point during the term in favor of Gantz. There is also the chance that Netanyahu offers Gantz the choice to replace his natural partners between Phase 2 & Phase 3 in order to pass through Trump’s deal of the century.

Option #4: Mystery MK forms coalition.

If both Netanyahu and Gantz fail to form a coalition the law allows any MK to sign 61 MKs on a nomination paper that he or she hands to the President. In this “wild west” scenario any MK can break with party lines and sign for whichever candidate he or she chooses. This is a scenario that will be the elephant in the room if indeed neither side receives 61 nominations. My model predicts 63 seats, yet with a 3-seat-margin-of-error it is possible we see a 60-60 tie between the nominating blocs which could eventually lead to this scenario. I don’t see this scenario playing out but the fact that it exists will influence the decisionmakers choices in Phase 2.

Prediction:

Option 1 would provide Netanyahu with an ideal coalition of his natural partners, yet he will have little flexibility in such a tight coalition. There would only be three coalition partners, but he would need to concede senior portfolios which could lead to issues within his own party.

Option 2 is a big stretch. UTJ & Shas have ruled out sitting with Lapid. Liberman refuses to sit with Meretz or with Yaalon. Yaalon and Meretz refuse to sit with Liberman. There does not seem to be enough senior portfolios to hand off to everyone. Gantz can’t offer anyone a better deal to defect when everyone would probably receive a better deal from Netanyahu.

Option 3 might provide the most stable government, especially if the Trump Peace Plan is indeed released between Phase 2 and Phase 3. In this scenario Gantz doesn’t need to nominate Netanyahu for Prime Minister. Gantz can fulfill his campaign pledge not to nominate Netanyahu at the President’s Residence and “replace” the right-religious bloc parties who had nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2 in Phase 3 by signing a coalition agreement. Gantz can justify it to his base that he alone can provide the stability needed for an Israeli government that would agree to pursue the Trump Peace Plan. The most difficult issue for Gantz to overcome is that Netanyahu’s legal cases are expected to keep moving forward and he will be the one keeping him in power. In the past Netanyahu has signed coalition deals with parties that have not nominated him in Phase 2. The most recent cases are Ehud Barak’s Labor Party in 2009 and Tzipi Livni’s HaTnuna Party in 2013.

Option 4 is the least likely but might get the most play in the media. If we do get there so there will be a lot of pressure to form a government because if not the country will automatically head to a third election.

The two most likely Phase 3 options are Option 1 or Option 3. It is difficult to predict which option Netanyahu will choose and he might pursue both of them simultaneously. He has done that in the past. The most recent case was in 2016 when Netanyahu negotiated with Herzog’s Zionist Union and Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu in efforts to expand his government. He did so during the April Elections negotiations when he simultaneously negotiated with Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu & with Avi Gabbai’s Labor.

I can’t determine at this time which option, between option 1 and option 3, is more likely but I can determine that the most likely option is that Prime Minister Netanyahu is re-elected in Phase 3.

To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!

The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yamina-8-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8

The final Knesset Jeremy Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/16/phase-1-knesset-election-prediction-analysis/

Last night I posted my Phase 1 Prediction Analysis:

38 Likud

35 Blue & White

11 Joint List

9 UTJ

9 Shas

7 Yamina

6 Yisrael Beitenu

5 Labor

0 (3) Democratic Union

0 (3) Otzma

  • The margin of error is 3 seats.

Today I am posting my Phase 2 Prediction Analysis:

Based on the Phase 1 predictions these are the three most likely scenarios for Phase 2 based on the math. Remember, President Rivlin is on record that if a Prime Minister candidate receives 61 or more nominations in the President’s Residence that he will grant them the chance to form the next government.

#1 Path to a Netanyahu Coalition:

63 nominations for Netanyahu: 38 Likud, 9 UTJ, 9 Shas, 7 Yamina

40 nominations for Gantz: 35 Blue & White, 5 Labor

17 Won’t nominate: 11 Joint List, 6 Yisrael Beitenu

#2 Path to a Gantz Coalition:

61 nominations for Gantz: 35 Blue & White, 11 Joint List, 6 Yisrael Beitenu, 5 Labor, *4 Meretz

59 nominations for Netanyahu: *37 Likud, *8 UTJ, *8 Shas, *6 Yamina

#3 Path to a National Unity (Netanyahu-Gantz) Coalition:

73 nominations: 38 Likud, 35 Blue & White

The 3 possible paths:

Path #1 is the most likely based on my model and indeed the most ideal for the Prime Minister. In this scenario the four lists who have made public commitments to endorse Netanyahu in Phase 2 receive 61+ seats.

Path #2 is less likely. In this scenario has 61 nominations because Democratic Union passes the electoral threshold at the expense of four seats being lost by the right. Additionally, both Yisrael Beitenu & The Joint List nominate Gantz. This is a theoretical scenario that can be taken into account within the margin of error. In this scenario Gantz would need to have UTJ & Shas replace The Joint List in order to actually form a coalition. How would he juggle UTJ & Lapid, Lieberman & Yaalon, Shas & Meretz? Well, as I said this is a less likely scenario.

Path #3 is the least likely. Historically, Presidents have only pursued national unity governments when neither side has a pathway to 61.

Timeline between Phase 1 and 2, and exactly how Phase 2 works:

Tuesday at 10 PM Israel time the voting will end and election will be over. Those who enter the polling station before 10 PM will still be allowed to vote. Each polling station will have a committee of three people, representing three different parties and those three people will tally the votes by hand. The party representatives will text the results to their headquarters so that the Party Leaders know the results before the television journalists. The official results will be entered into the computer and published on the Central Elections Committee website as the night goes on. Exit polls are closed at 8 PM and therefore will not include trends that affect the voting in the closing hours. The media focus will be on the exit polls until the middle of the night when a good percentage of the vote will have been counted.

By the morning we should have most of the votes in and the Phase 1 results should be rather clear. The “double-envelope” votes will not be included in these initial results. These are votes by citizens who voted overseas or in Israeli army bases, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails or polling station committee members. These votes will be counted afterwards in the Knesset itself. Expect a slight shift of a seat-or-two in the final Phase 1 results after the double-envelope votes are counted. This becomes particularly interesting for the parties that are close to the electoral threshold.

The unofficial negotiations that are conducted between Phase 1 and Phase 2 have almost always enabled one of the Prime Minister candidates to reach enough support to get the first crack at forming a government. President Rivlin is expected to meet with the Knesset factions in an unofficial capacity after the election results are clear. It is possible that Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer does not allow Rivlin to hold the consolations until the results are certified which is eight days after the election. The parties visit the President in order of party size. The law does not take the size of a party into account in terms of mandating who the President should select to form the next government. The law requires President Rivlin to sit with each of the newly elected lists before making a decision on who should get the first crack at forming a new government. Rivlin will make an announcement after all of the nominations are in. When the newly elected Knesset will be sworn in we will not yet have a new government at that date, but we should know who will get the first crack at putting together the next government.

Prediction:

Bottom line my prediction is that it will not be in President Rivlin’s hands. Someone is going to get a majority and the most likely candidate is Netanyahu. By law, in the event no one gets 61 seats, Rivlin can determine based on his own considerations “who has the best chance at forming a coalition”. This scenario seems unlikely based on the current projections. In each of the cases where this scenario did occur the President presented the mandate to whoever had the most seats even if that candidate failed to reach 61.

It is still possible that even if Netanyahu is nominated in Phase 2 that he doesn’t reach Phase 3 and that most likely means that Gantz gets a nod to be the second person to try Phase 2, although this option is highly unlikely in the case that Netanyahu gets a minimum of 61 recommendations.

If both Netanyahu and Gantz fail in Phase 2 are we headed to a third election? No. The law does grant a third candidate the chance to form a government if the first two candidates are not able to form a coalition. In this scenario any MK can present 61 MK signatures to the President and will be granted the chance to form a coalition. In this “wild west” scenario any MK can break with party lines and sign for whichever candidate he or she chooses. The President cannot choose the third candidate and he cannot force upon the sides to take upon themselves a national unity government. The rules to each scenario can be found in Basic Law: The Government

The rest of the KnessetJeremy schedule: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!