Category: Weekly Poll Avg


Phase 1 Prediction Analysis

The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yamina-8-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8/

This is the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2019:

PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremy Prediction ModelChangeLast KnessetJeremy AVG
1stLikudNetanyahu38533
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz35332
3rdThe Joint ListOdeh11011
4thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman918
5thShasDeri927
6thYaminaShaked7-18
7thYisrael BeitenuLiberman6-28
8thLaborPeretz505
9thDemocratic UnionHorwitz0 (3)-55
10thOtzma/OtherBen Gvir0 (3)-33
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM63459
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM51-253
Pushing Unity Government6-28

Few quick notes:

*For those who are wondering: In 2013 my mode had a 2-seat margin of error. In 2015 I had a 1-seat margin of error. In April 2019 I had a 3-seat margin of error. In all three elections there were two “exceptions” that did not meet the margin of error and the rest met the margin of error. This happen because there is usually a major swing where one party receives most of the undecided voters at the last minute that is difficult to project.

Phase 1 Recap:

#1 Likud: 38 seats:

How we got here: It took Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seven elections as Likud’s leader (1996, 1999, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015) to reach his peak of 35 seats. It didn’t matter because he couldn’t form a government and that is why we have repeat elections. Kahlon merged his Kulanu party into the Likud. This time it looks like Likud will gain an extra three seats – mostly from voters who voted for right-wing parties that did not pass the electoral threshold in April and partly from former Kulanu voters.

Why they could get more: If Netanyahu’s decision to repeat his 2015 & 2019A campaign strategy of a last-minute effort to attract right-wing voters from his bloc to Likud is a success. The danger of this approach is that if he succeeds too much, as he did in April, he might send some of his coalition partners under the electoral threshold, which could put his re-election as Prime Minister in jeopardy.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of Likud voters feel that Netanyahu has won and choose to skip the voting booth on their way to the beach or Yamina is able to win back some of the voters that have left for Likud in recent days.

#2 Blue & White: 35 seats:

How we got here: Ahead of the April elections, after years of scenario polls, the “big four” of Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashekenazi joined up to create the latest mega-party that markets itself as an alternative to Netanyahu.  Gantz succeeded where Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in 2009 (28 seats) & Issac Herzog’s Zionist Union (24 seats) failed, as Blue & White won 35 seats in April. Right now it looks like Blue & White will retain their 35 seats.

Why they could get more: If Gantz is able to convince more anti-Netanyahu voters that he is the only alternative to Netanyahu.

Why they could get less: If Labor & Democratic Union voters decide to bolt back to their previous parties because they believe Gantz might take their votes and sit in a coalition government with Netanyahu.

#3 Joint List: 11 seats:

How we got here: The band is back together after splitting in April which led to a drop in seats compared to 2015. Turnout is expected to be higher in the non-Jewish sector this time around which will lead to an extra seat.

Why they could get more: If turnout is higher.

Why they could get less: If turnout is lower.

#4-tie UTJ: 9 seats:

How we got here: Before the April elections Agudat Yisrael agreed to Degel HaTorah’s terms and for the first time the two Ashkenazi parties that make up the faction are running on a 50%-50% slate. This move helped increase turnout among the Lithuanian sector and the party won 8 seats. Overall turnout is expected to be lower this time around and UTJ is expected to maintain their high turnout.

Why they could get more: If the general turnout is even lower than expected so UTJ is in a great spot to win a 10th seat.

Why they could get less: The more likely option is that the overall turnout is surprisingly high. The less likely option is if a larger number of undecided Haredi voters choose to vote for non-Haredi parties.

#4-tie Shas: 9 seats:

How we got here: As usual Shas, like UTJ, is focused on its base and most of the campaign has been devoted to bring-out-the-vote either through emotionally driven campaign videos or their ground game for election day.

Why they could get more: If additional Sephardi voters decide that Aryeh Deri represents them better than anyone else or that the late Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef still expects them to vote for Shas.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#6 Yamina: 7 seats:

How we got here: Naftali Bennett & Ayelet Shaked, the two most popular ministers of the 2015-2019 term in a series of polls before the elections, formed a new party 100 days before the April election but failed to pass the electoral threshold. Bennett handed control of the party over to Shaked who decided to run on a joint ticket with Bayit Yehudi and Tekuma.

Why they could get more: Early polls had the party in double digits and there are many undecided voters who list them as their second option.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#7 Yisrael Beitenu: 6 seats:

How we got here: Avigdor Liberman won 5 seats in the April elections. He nominated Netanyahu for Prime Minister. However, he refused to sign a coalition agreement with him. Instead of allowing Gantz the chance to form a government Liberman chose to support Netanyahu’s initiative for another election. Yisrael Beitenu chose to push for a national unity government and carry the flag of religion and state issues in this election. The initial results led them to double digit numbers. However, after Blue & White decided to champion their causes as well leading to a sharp decline in support. The final average gave them 8 seats and I expect them to lose another 2.

Why they could get more: If Lieberman is able to win back the votes he has lost to Blue & White in recent days.

Why they could get less: If Lieberman can’t stop the bleeding he might start flirting with the electoral threshold.

#8 Labor: 5 Seats:

How we got here: Amir Peretz replaced Avi Gabbai as leader of the historic party that established the country. He will be judged based on his decision to run on a joint ticket with Orly Levy’s Gesher over a joint ticket with Meretz.

Why they could get more: If Blue & White stumble during the stretch run there are many undecided voters on the center-left bloc that name Labor as their second choice.

Why they could get less: If even more voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc or decide to vote for the Democratic Union.

#9 Democratic Union: 0 (3) seats:

How we got here: Tamar Zandberg led Meretz to 4 seats and was ousted in the subsequent primary for Nitzan Horovitz. The new Meretz leader made a deal to run with Ehud Barak’s new party and the green movement which placed Labor MK Stav Shafir at its head. 4 of the top 6 spots are Meretz candidates. Like HaYamin HeHadash (New Right) of the last election the Democratic Union is losing voters at a fast pace to its counterpart in the bloc. The final average has them at 5 and I expect them to keep bleeding votes until they fall under the threshold.

Why they could get more: If the Democratic Union is able to convince undecided center-left voters that they are the only ones that can pull Gantz to the left.

Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.

#10 Otzma: 0 (3) seats:

How we got here: After the disqualification of multiple candidates Itamar Ben Gvir leads a list of relatively unknown candidates on a list that is passing in five of the last seven polls. In April, all of the polls showed both HaYamin HeHadash & Zehut passing the electoral threshold.

Why they could get more: Extremely low turnout.

Why they could get less: If Likud & Yamina are successful in saving more right wing votes from falling under the electoral threshold.

Right-Religious Bloc: 63

Likud 38 – UTJ 9 – Shas 9 – Yamina 7

How we got here: In April there was eight parties in the bloc but that has been reduced to four parties that are expected to pass the threshold. Kulanu and Zehut merged into Likud, HaYamin HeHadash joined the others in the Union of Right Parties and Yisrael Beitenu removed themselves from the bloc. Otzma is not expected to pass.

Why they could get more: If Likud is able to pick up undecided voters who are leaning Yisrael Beitenu.

Why they could get less: If somehow Netanyahu is too successful and Yamina drops under the electoral threshold.

Center-Left-Arab Bloc: 51

Blue & White 35 – Joint List 11 – Labor 5

How we got here: In April there was 5 parties that are ruling out joining a Netanyahu Government as part of their campaign. The Joint List is back however it looks like the Democratic Union might fall under the threshold.

Why they could get more: If Blue & White is able to pick up undecided voters who are leaning Yisrael Beitenu.

Why they could get less: If both Labor & Democratic Union fall under the threshold.

Yisrael Beitenu Bloc: 6

How we got here: Liberman set himself up to be the kingmaker.

Why they could get more: If he is able to win back the seats he has lost in recent days.

Why they could get less: If both Likud and Blue & White keep taking away more votes.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls (Updated September 14th)

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChange41-Poll-AVGApril Results
1stLikudNetanyahu3332.91.531.439
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz32321.230.835
3rdThe Joint ListOdeh1111.20.510.710
4thYaminaShaked88.3-1.59.85
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman88.4-1.29.65
6thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman87.60.27.48
7thShasDeri77-0.17.18
8thDemocratic UnionHorwitz55.1-1.46.54
9thLaborPeretz54.7-0.95.66
10thOtzma/OtherBen Gvir32.81.71.10
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM5958.61.856.860
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM5353-0.653.655
Pushing Unity Government88.4-1.29.65

Note #1: The KnessetJeremy Average is based on the last seven polls that were released by Midgam, Smith, Maagar Mochot, Kantar, Panel Project HaMdigam, Panels & Shvakim Panorama. Otzma does not pass the electoral threshold in Smith or Panels but passes in 5 of the 7 polls. In rare statistical circumstances parties can receive 3 seats so I have left the 3-seat result in the average which also allows me to maintain an 120-seat framework.

Note #2: The 41-Poll-Average is based on the last 41 polls that were conducted from July 30th until September 13 (last six weeks): 12 Midgam, 8 Smith, 5 Maagar Mochot, 5 Kantar/Teleseker, 6 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls, 2 Panels & 1 Shvakim Panorama.

Note #3: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election. Zehut resigned and 31 parties remain.

Note #4: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Democratic Union, B) Blue and White & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & Yamina. D) Shas & UTJ. E) Otzma & Noam. The Joint List did not sign with any other list.

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Final Note: I will post my final prediction based on my model tomorrow. As always the final prediction will be different than the final average because it takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Friday: Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.

Channel 12 (Midgam/Gava) & Channel 13 (Panel Project HaMidgam/Fuchs) will both release their last polls later tonight. 4 pollsters have already released their last polls: 103 FM/Maariv (Smith), Knesset Channel (Panels/Lazar), Yisrael Hayom (Maagar Mochot/Katz) & Channel 11/Kan (Kantar/Teleseker).

Saturday Night: Tomorrow night I will post the final Knesset Jeremy’s Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls. Additionally, I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis.

Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.

Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.

Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).

Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.

September-October-November: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government.

Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com

Update: Additional polls by Maariv & Ynet have been added. My final prediction has been postponed to Sunday and will appear with the Phase 1 Analysis piece.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: (Updated August 26th)

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsAVGApril ResultsDifference
1stLikudNetanyahu3130.739-8.3
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz3029.635-5.4
3rdYaminaShaked1110.955.9
4thThe Joint ListOdeh1110.9100.9
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman101055
6thDemocratic UnionHorwitz77.543.5
7thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman77.48-0.6
8thShasDeri77.28-0.8
9thLaborPeretz65.86-0.2
10thOtherFeiglin/Ben Gvir/Etc0000
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM5656.260-3.8
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM5453.855-1.2
Pushing Unity Government101055

Note #1: This average is based on the last 17 polls that were conducted from July 30th until August 23rd (last four weeks). (6 Midgam, 4 Smith, 2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls, 1 Teleseker & 0 Panels).

Note #2: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

PlacePartyLeaderAVGApril ResultsDifference
1stLikudNetanyahu30.239-8.8
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz2935-6
3rdUnited RightShaked11.456.4
4thThe Joint ListOdeh11.2101.2
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman10.255.2
6thDemocratic UnionHorwitz844
7thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman7.48-0.6
8thShasDeri78-1
9thLaborPeretz5.66-0.4
10thOther23 Others000
xHave ruled out nominating Gantz for PMx5660-4
xHave ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PMx53.855-1.2
xPushing Unity Governmentx10.255.2

Note #1: This average is based on the last 5 polls that were conducted after all of the joint tickets were publicized. (2 Midgam, 1 Maagar Mochot, 1 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 1 Smith, 0 Teleseker, Direct Polls, Panels, Kantar).

Note #2: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election.

Exit polls 2019:

PlacePartyLeaderChannel 11Channel 12Channel 13Channel 20i24 newsYnetExit Poll AVGExit Poll Seats
1stBlue & WhiteGantz37373633333334.936
2ndLikudNetanyahu3633362727273133
3rdLaborGabbai8679897.99
4thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman7777756.77
5thShasDeri7676576.37
6thHadash-TaalOdeh6675776.37
7thUnited Right ListPeretz5546745.26
8thKulanuKahlon54466556
9thMeretzZandberg5546544.85
10thHaYamin HeHadashBennett0 (2.51%)046763.84
11thRaam-BaladAbbas06044430
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman4540042.80
13thZehutFeiglin0 (2.42%)005452.30
14thGesherLevy0 (1.73%)0000000
Right-Religious Bloc64606663636363.263
Center-Left-Arab Bloc56605457575756.857

Notes (I’lll update as more methodology is released): Channel 11 was conducted by TNS/Teleseker in 60 polling stations. Channel 12 was conducted by Midgam. Channel 13 was conducted by Dialog. Channel 20 was conducted by Maagar Mochot. I24news was conducted by Sarid with 3,756 people with a 1.8% +/- margin of error. Ynet was conducted by Pardes with over 10,000 people.

Here is the average of the 5 exit polls from 2015:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/18/average-of-5-exit-polls-likud-26-2-zionist-union-25-6-joint-arab-list-13-yesh-atid-11-8-kulanu-9-6-bayit-yehudi-8-4-shas-7-2/

Takeaway: The average was more accurate than any individual exit poll.

Here is the 2015 exit poll average compared to the 2015 election results.

Takeaway: The average was accurate for most of the parties with a +/-1 seat margin of error.

https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/18/comparing-results-after-over-99-of-results-to-exit-polls-and-knesset-jeremy-model/


KnessetJeremy Schedule:

Friday Afternoon: I posted the last Weekly Average which you can find below. Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.

Saturday Night: I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis. 

Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.

Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.

Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).

Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.

April-May-June: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government which I predict will take place on the first week of June.

Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday April 6 2019.

  • The original post went out Friday afternoon. This updated version includes the last poll which was aired on Friday night. There was no change to the seat count that was posted yesterday.
PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 14 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3029.7-0.830.511
2ndLikudNetanyahu2928.3-0.428.729
3rdLaborGabbai109.70.69.118
4thHadash-TaalOdeh87-0.27.26
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.5-0.16.66
6thUnited Right ListPeretz76.106.15
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett65.7-0.25.93
8thMeretzZandberg65.60.55.15
9thShasDeri65.3-0.15.47
10thZehutFeiglin65.30.25.10
11thKulanuKahlon54.60.54.110
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman030.52.55
13thRaam-BaladAbbas02.902.97
14thOther27 Others00.3-0.50.88
Right-Religious Bloc6664.80.464.466
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5455.2-0.455.654

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 14 polls that were released from Friday afternoon March 30 to Friday evening April 5 (3 Midgam, 3 Maagar Mochot, 3 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Teleseker & 0 Direct Polls).

Note #3: For a better understanding of how a Prime Minister is elected read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Meretz, B) HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & United Right List, D) Shas & UTJ & E) Hadash-Taal & Raam-Balad.

Note #5: Kulanu passed the electoral threshold in 13 of 14 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 10 polls, Yisrael Beitenu passed in 10 polls and Gesher passed in 1 poll this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Shas-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Zehut is polling at a high of 69 and a low of 62. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad & Gesher when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 58 and a low of 51.

Note #7: Blue & White is the largest party in 9 of the 14 polls this week, Likud leads Blue & White in 4 polls, and one poll has them both tied.

Note #8: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 6 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Important Note #1: KnessetJeremy.com celebrated our 9th anniversary this week.
Important Note #2: The deadline for publishing polls is on Friday. The final polling average and prediction will be released on that date.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Sunday March 30th 2019.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 13 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3130.50.230.311
2ndLikudNetanyahu2928.7-0.32929
3rdLaborGabbai109.10.1918
4thHadash-TaalOdeh87.2-0.47.66
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.606.66
6thUnited Right ListPeretz76.1-0.26.35
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett65.90.25.73
8thShasDeri65.40.54.97
9thMeretzZandberg65.1-0.35.45
10thZehutFeiglin65.10.74.40
11thKulanuKahlon44.10.43.710
12thRaam-BaladAbbas02.902.97
13thYisrael BeitenuLiberman02.5-1.23.75
14thOther28 Others00.80.30.58
Right-Religious Bloc6564.40.164.366
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5555.6-0.155.754

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 10 polls that were released from March 24 to March 30 (3 Midgam, 2 Panel Project HaMidgam, Panels, Smith, Maagar Mochot, Teleseker & Direct Polls).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Meretz, B) HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & United Right List, D) Shas & UTJ & E) Hadash-Taal & Raam-Balad.

Note #5: Kulanu passed the electoral threshold in 9 of 10 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 7 polls, Yisrael Beitenu passed in 6 polls and Gesher passed in 2 polls this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Shas-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Zehut is polling at a high of 68 and a low of 59. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad & Gesher when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 61 and a low of 52.

Note #6: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 6 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Sunday March 24th 2019.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 12 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3130.3-1.531.811
2ndLikudNetanyahu29290.528.529
3rdLaborGabbai990.58.518
4thHadash-TaalOdeh87.60.47.26
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.6-0.26.86
6thUnited Right ListPeretz66.3-0.775
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett65.7-0.15.83
8thMeretzZandberg65.4-0.665
9thShasDeri54.9-0.65.57
10thZehutFeiglin54.40.14.30
11thKulanuKahlon43.70.53.210
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman43.70.53.25
13thRaam-BaladAbbas02.90.72.27
14thOther30 Others00.50.508
Right-Religious Bloc6664.30.164.266
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5455.7-0.155.854

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 7 polls that were released from March 17 to March 22 (2 Panels, Smith, Maagar Mochot, Midgam, Panel Project HaMidgam & Direct Polls).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange agreements have been signed between Labor & Meretz, HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, Likud & United Right List, Shas & UTJ. The deadline for submitting voter exchange agreements is March 29.

Note #5: Yisrael Beitenu & Kulanu both passed the electoral threshold in 6 of 7 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 5 of the 7 polls this week. Gesher passed in 1 poll this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Shas-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Zehut is polling at a high of 68 and a low of 62. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad & Gesher when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 58 and a low of 52.

Note #6: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 4 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Monday March 17th 2019.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 11 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3231.8-1.833.611
2ndLikudNetanyahu2928.5-0.52929
3rdLaborGabbai98.50.18.418
4thHadash-TaalOdeh77.2-1.18.36
5thUnited Right ListPeretz770.46.65
6thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.8-0.276
7thMeretzZandberg660.75.35
8thHaYamin HeHadashBennett65.8-0.263
9thShasDeri55.50.557
10thZehutFeiglin44.32.61.70
11thKulanuKahlon43.2-1.44.610
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman43.21.51.75
13thRaam-BaladAbbas02.2-0.12.37
14thOther30 Others00-0.60.68
Right-Religious Bloc6664.23.26166
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5455.8-3.25954

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 4 polls that were released from March 11 to March 15 (Maagar Mochot, Midgam, Panel Project HaMidgam & Direct Polls).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange agreements have been signed between Labor & Meretz, HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, Likud & United Right List, Shas & UTJ. The deadline for submitting voter exchange agreements is March 29.

Note #5: Yisrael Beitenu & Kulanu both passed the electoral threshold in 3 of 4 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 2 of the 4 polls this week. Zehut, for the first time, passed in all of the polls conducted this week. Gesher did not pass in any poll this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu (including Zehut when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 66 and a low of 63. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 57 and a low of 54.

Note #6: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 4 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)