Tag Archive: Poll of Polls


Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls (Updated September 3rd)

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsAVGApril ResultsDifference
1stLikudNetanyahu313139-8
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz303035-5
3rdThe Joint ListOdeh1110.8100.8
4thYaminaShaked1110.655.6
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman109.954.9
6thDemocratic UnionHorwitz77.343.3
7thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman77.38-0.7
8thShasDeri77.28-0.8
9thLaborPeretz65.96-0.1
10thOtherBen Gvir/Etc.0000
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM5656.160-3.9
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM545455-1
Pushing Unity Government109.954.9

Note #1: This average is based on the last 24 polls that were conducted from July 30th until September 3 (last month): 8 Midgam, 5 Smith, 3 Maagar Mochot, 3 Teleseker, 3 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls & 0 Panels.

Note #2: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election. The Zehut list has agreed to resign but has yet to do so officially.

Note #3: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Democratic Union, B) Blue and White & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & Yamina. Shas & UTJ are expected to sign before the deadline on September 6th. The Joint List announced they will not sign with any other list.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: (Updated August 26th)

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsAVGApril ResultsDifference
1stLikudNetanyahu3130.739-8.3
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz3029.635-5.4
3rdYaminaShaked1110.955.9
4thThe Joint ListOdeh1110.9100.9
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman101055
6thDemocratic UnionHorwitz77.543.5
7thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman77.48-0.6
8thShasDeri77.28-0.8
9thLaborPeretz65.86-0.2
10thOtherFeiglin/Ben Gvir/Etc0000
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM5656.260-3.8
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM5453.855-1.2
Pushing Unity Government101055

Note #1: This average is based on the last 17 polls that were conducted from July 30th until August 23rd (last four weeks). (6 Midgam, 4 Smith, 2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls, 1 Teleseker & 0 Panels).

Note #2: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

PlacePartyLeaderAVGApril ResultsDifference
1stLikudNetanyahu30.239-8.8
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz2935-6
3rdUnited RightShaked11.456.4
4thThe Joint ListOdeh11.2101.2
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman10.255.2
6thDemocratic UnionHorwitz844
7thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman7.48-0.6
8thShasDeri78-1
9thLaborPeretz5.66-0.4
10thOther23 Others000
xHave ruled out nominating Gantz for PMx5660-4
xHave ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PMx53.855-1.2
xPushing Unity Governmentx10.255.2

Note #1: This average is based on the last 5 polls that were conducted after all of the joint tickets were publicized. (2 Midgam, 1 Maagar Mochot, 1 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 1 Smith, 0 Teleseker, Direct Polls, Panels, Kantar).

Note #2: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election.

PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremyAvearge6-Poll-AVGApril Results
1stLikud+KulanuNetanyahu3635.439
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz3433.535
3rdYisrael BeitenuLiberman885
4thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman87.58
5thShasDeri778
6thHadash-TaalOdeh76.36
7thUnited Right ListPeretz55.25
8thMeretzZandberg55.24
9thHaYamin HeHadashBennett54.70
10thLaborGabbai54.36
11thRaam-BaladAbbas02.94
12thZehutFeiglin000
13thGesherLevy000
Right-Religious Bloc6967.865
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5152.255

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 6 polls that were released from May 27 to June 3 (2 Panels, 2 Direct Polls, 1 Maagar Mochot, 1 Panel Project HaMidgam, 0 Smith, 0 Teleseker & 0 Midgam).

Note #3: The right-religious bloc is polling at a high of 72 and a low of 66. The center-left-Arab bloc is polling at a high of 54 and a low of 48.

Note #4: Kulanu has merged into the Likud. Labor did not pass in one poll poll. HaYamin HeHadash, Zehut & Gesher were not polled in one of the polls.

Below is a summary of each poll/prediction that was released before the polling blackout from April 6-April 9 2019. For the third consecutive election cycle the KnessetJeremy model was more accurate than any of the final polls that were released to the public.

Party/PollsterActual ResultsKnessetJeremySmithDirect PollsMidgam 
Blue & White3529292930 
Likud3530273126 
Shas85665 
United Torah Judaism86777 
Hadash-Taal67777 
Labor699711 
Yisrael Beitenu54444 
United Right List56665 
Meretz45565 
Kulanu44505 
Raam-Balad44444 
HaYamin HeHadash06676 
Zehut05565 
Gesher00000 
PlaceActual Results1st2nd3rd4th 
Right-Religious Bloc6566666763 
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5554545357 
       
Party/PollsterActual ResultsProjectTelesekerPanelsMaagar MochotMiskar
Blue & White352830303128
Likud352831292831
Shas854566
United Torah Judaism866676
Hadash-Taal668877
Labor611810910
Yisrael Beitenu540400
United Right List576778
Meretz456675
Kulanu445060
Raam-Balad444404
HaYamin HeHadash066667
Zehut066568
Gesher000000
PlaceActual Results5th6th7th8th9th
Right-Religious Bloc656664626666
Center-Left-Arab Bloc555456585454
       
Party/PollsterKnessetJeremyChangeSmithChangeDirect PollsChange
Blue & White296296296
Likud305278314
Shas536262
United Torah Judaism627171
Hadash-Taal7-17-17-1
Labor9-39-37-1
Yisrael Beitenu414141
United Right List6-16-16-1
Meretz5-15-16-2
Kulanu405-104
Raam-Balad404040
HaYamin HeHadash6-66-67-7
Zehut5-55-56-6
Gesher000000
Off by # of seatsKnessetJeremy34Smith36Direct Polls36
Right-Religious Bloc66-166-167-2
Center-Left-Arab Bloc541541532
       
Party/PollsterMidgamChangeProjectChangeTelesekerChange
Blue & White305287305
Likud269287314
Shas535344
United Torah Judaism716262
Hadash-Taal7-1608-2
Labor11-511-58-2
Yisrael Beitenu414105
United Right List507-26-1
Meretz5-15-16-2
Kulanu5-1405-1
Raam-Balad404040
HaYamin HeHadash6-66-66-6
Zehut5-56-66-6
Gesher000000
Off by # of seatsMidgam38Project40Teleseker40
Right-Religious Bloc63266-1641
Center-Left-Arab Bloc57-254156-1
       
Party/PollsterPanelsChangeMaagar MochotChangeMiskarOff By
Blue & White305314287
Likud296287314
Shas536262
United Torah Judaism627162
Hadash-Taal8-27-17-1
Labor10-49-310-4
Yisrael Beitenu410505
United Right List7-27-28-3
Meretz6-27-35-1
Kulanu046-204
Raam-Balad400440
HaYamin HeHadash6-66-67-7
Zehut5-56-68-8
Gesher000000
Off by # of seatsPanels42Maagar Mochot46Miskar48
Right-Religious Bloc62366-166-1
Center-Left-Arab Bloc58-3541541

KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Sep 27 2016.

Party KnessetJeremy Polling Average (September) Change since July/August Former KJPA (July/August) All Polls since Elections 2015 Election
Yesh Atid 24 3.2 20.8 20 11
Likud 23.3 -1.5 24.8 26 30
Joint List 13 0 13 12.8 13
Bayit Yehudi 12.5 -1.7 14.2 12 8
Zionist Union 12 1.8 10.2 14.1 24
Yisrael Beitenu 9.3 1.5 7.8 8.5 6
UTJ 7.5 -2 9.5 7.5 6
Kulanu 6.2 -0.5 6.7 6.6 10
Shas 6.2 -0.3 6.5 6.5 7
Meretz 6 -0.5 6.5 6 5
Right-Religious 65 -4.5 69.5 67.1 67
Center-Left-Arab 55 4.5 50.5 52.9 53
Party 29 Poll Avg 29 Poll Placing Avg 2015 Election 2015 Placing Up/Down
Likud 26 1st 30 1st 0
Yesh Atid 20 2nd 11 4th 2
Zionist Union 14.1 3rd 24 2nd -1
Joint List 12.8 4th 13 3rd -1
Bayit Yehudi 12 5th 8 6th 1
Yisrael Beitenu 8.5 6th 6 8th 2
UTJ 7.5 7th 6 9th 2
Kulanu 6.6 8th 10 5th -3
Shas 6.5 9th 7 7th -2
Meretz 6 10th 5 10th 0
Right-Religious 67.1 n/a 67 n/a n/a
Center-Left-Arab 52.9 n/a 53 n/a n/a

The KnessetJeremy Polling Average tracks the most recent polling numbers. This page is updated as new polls are added to the site and the KnessetJeremy poll database.

There have been 29 opinion polls released by the top polling companies to the public since the election. The “KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls” is currently averaging the four most recent polls conducted this month, September 2016. The current KJPA is being compared to a previous update that is averaging the four polls conducted during July and August.

Source: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

KnessetJeremy is back from vacation. I want to thank my loyal readers who reached out to express their frustration over the break. It felt good to be missed. It has been five years since I took a real vacation and it was well worth it.

There are five polls that came out during my break and I will post them in chronological order after this post. I hope to also put out a “Weekend Perspective” piece for this weekend.

Below is the updated “Knesset Jeremy Polling Average” which has also been updated on the site. The significant change of the month is the Joint List is now in third place and Zionist Union has dropped to fourth.

_____________________________________________________________

KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: July 19 2016

Party KnessetJeremy Polling Average (June/July) Change since previous KJPA (April/May) KJPA (April/May) All Polls since Elections 2015 Election
Likud 26.3 -0.4 26.7 26.7 30
Yesh Atid 19.7 -0.3 20 19 11
Joint List 13 0.2 12.8 12.8 13
Zionist Union 12.7 -0.1 12.8 15.1 24
Bayit Yehudi 12 0.7 11.3 11.5 8
Yisrael Beitenu 9 0 9 8.5 6
UTJ 7.7 -0.3 8 7.2 6
Shas 7 1.3 5.7 6.5 7
Kulanu 6.7 -0.1 6.8 6.6 10
Meretz 6 -0.8 6.8 6 5
Right-Religious 68.7 1.2 67.5 67.1 67
Center-Left-Arab 51.3 -1.2 52.5 52.9 53
Party 22 Poll Avg 22 Poll Placing Avg 2015 Election 2015 Placing Up/Down
Likud 26.7 1st 30 1st 0
Yesh Atid 19 2nd 11 4th 2
Zionist Union 15.1 3rd 24 2nd -1
Joint List 12.8 4th 13 3rd -1
Bayit Yehudi 11.5 5th 8 6th 1
Yisrael Beitenu 8.5 6th 6 8th 2
UTJ 7.2 7th 6 9th 2
Kulanu 6.6 8th 10 5th -3
Shas 6.5 9th 7 7th -2
Meretz 6 10th 5 10th 0
Right-Religious 67.1 n/a 67 n/a n/a
Center-Left-Arab 52.9 n/a 53 n/a n/a

 

The KnessetJeremy Polling Average tracks the most recent polling numbers. This page is updated as new polls are added to the site and the KnessetJeremy poll database.

Currently there have been 22 opinion polls released to the public since the election. The “KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls” is currently averaging the three most recent polls conducted in June and July. The previous update averaged the six polls conducted in May. In April no opinion polls were released to the public.

Party Seats Smith -17 Teleseker -17 New Wave -17 Panels -19 Dialog -19 Midgam -19 Geo -20 Maagar Mochot -23 TRI -23
Likud 30 21 -9 23 -7 23 -7 21 -9 20 -10 22 -8 26 -4 21 -9 24 -6
Zionist Union 24 25 -1 25 -1 23 -1 25 -1 24 26 -2 21 -3 24 24
The Joint List 13 13 12 -1 13 13 13 13 12 -1 12 -1 12 -1
Yesh Atid 11 11 12 -1 13 -2 13 -2 12 -1 12 -1 12 -1 13 -2 14 -3
Kulanu 10 9 -1 9 -1 9 -1 10 10 8 -2 8 -2 8 -2 8 -2
Bayit Yehudi 8 11 -3 11 -3 12 -4 11 -3 12 -4 11 -3 13 -5 13 -5 12 -4
Shas 7 9 -2 7 6 -1 7 7 7 8 -1 7 5 -2
Yisrael Beitenu 6 6 6 6 4 -2 5 -1 5 -1 7 -1 5 -1 4 -2
UTJ 6 6 7 -1 6 6 7 -1 6 8 -2 7 -1 7 -1
Merertz 5 5 4 -1 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 -1
Yachad 0 (3) 4 -1 4 -1 4 -1 5 -2 5 -2 5 -2 3 5 -2 4 -1

 

Company Off by Last Poll
Smith -17 13-Mar
Telesker -17 13-Mar
New Wave -17 6-Mar
Panels -19 13-Mar
Dialog -19 14-Mar
Midgam -19 14-Mar
Geo -20 8-Mar
Maagar Mochot -23 12-Mar
TRI -23 10-Mar

The only pollster to correctly predict Netanyahu’s Phase 2 partners at 67 seats vs his non-Phase 2 partners at 53 seats is Teleseker.

Smith, New Wave, Dialog and Maagar Mochot predicted 66 seats, Panels, Midgam and TRI predicted 64,  Geocartography predicted 70.

Party Exit Poll AVG Knesset Jeremy Model Results after 99.9% Results vs Exits Results vs KJ
Likud 26.2 22 30 +3.8 +8
Zionist Union 25.6 25 24 -1.6 -1
Joint Arab List 13 12 13 0 +1
Yesh Atid 11.8 12 11 -0.8 -1
Kulanu 9.6 9 10 +0.4 +1
Bayit Yehudi 8.4 12 8 -0.4 -4
Shas 7.2 7 7 -0.2 0
UTJ 6.6 7 6 -0.6 -1
Yisrael Beitenu 5.2 5 6 +0.8 +1
Meretz 5.2 5 5 -0.2 0
Yachad 3.2 4 0 (3) -0.2 -1

Facts:

* Both Exit Poll average and Knesset Jeremy average are within 1 seat on 9 of the 11 parties.

* Exit polls are very close to the current results with the exception of Likud that is at +3.8.

* Knesset Jeremy Model published last week is very close to the results with the exception of Likud gaining at the expense of Bayit Yehudi.

Analysis:

* Likud is the “Yesh Atid” of the 2015 elections.

* Likud gradually gained at the expense of Bayit Yehudi during the last four-five days before the elections as indicated by internal polls that were prohibited from being published by Israeli law.

* Likud gain at expense of Bayit Yehudi is similar on a mathematical level to Yesh Atid gain at expense of Bayit Yehudi in previous election.

* Last polls gave us an accurate picture of Thursday-Friday before Likud’s strategic voting offensive against the right was launched.

* Exit polls missed Likud by close to four seats because their model missed a specific demographic or geographic area.

* It will probably take a few days of going over data to understand what they missed.

* Group of parties that are expected to nominate Prime Minister Netanyahu according to Phase 2 prediction was 66 in the Knesset Jeremy Model and that group is now currently at 67.

*This proves that the last minute shift was within the blocs.

Conclusions:

* People are going to focus too much on the polls getting Likud wrong and not enough on the polls more or less getting everything else right.

* I’m looking forward to an interesting and exciting Phase 2 process where I expect Kulanu, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ and Yisrael Beitenu to join Likud in nominating Prime Minister Netanyahu to get first crack at putting together his fourth term as Prime Minister.

Updates:

The table has been updated to reflect over 200,000 double envelope votes that were counted on March 19.

Party Channel 2 Channel 10 Channel 1 Channel 99 Channel 20 Exit Poll AVG Knesset Jeremy Model Difference
Likud 28 27 27 26 23 26.2 22 4.2
Zionist Union 27 27 27 27 20 25.6 25 0.6
Joint Arab List 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 1
Yesh Atid 12 11 12 12 12 11.8 12 -0.2
Kulanu 9 10 10 10 9 9.6 9 0.6
Bayit Yehudi 8 8 9 9 8 8.4 12 -3.6
Shas 7 7 7 7 8 7.2 7 0.2
UTJ 6 7 6 6 8 6.6 7 -0.4
Yisrael Beitenu 5 5 5 5 6 5.2 5 0.2
Meretz 5 5 5 5 6 5.2 5 0.2
Yachad 3 3 3 3 4 3.2 4 -0.8

According to the average of exit polls, Knesset Jeremy Model predicted 9 of 11 parties within one seat.

The exception being the transfer of votes from Bayit Yehudi to Likud in the final days at an advanced rate.