Phase 1 Prediction Analysis
The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yamina-8-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8/
This is the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2019:
| Place | Party | Leader | KnessetJeremy Prediction Model | Change | Last KnessetJeremy AVG |
| 1st | Likud | Netanyahu | 38 | 5 | 33 |
| 2nd | Blue & White | Gantz | 35 | 3 | 32 |
| 3rd | The Joint List | Odeh | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 4th | United Torah Judaism | Litzman | 9 | 1 | 8 |
| 5th | Shas | Deri | 9 | 2 | 7 |
| 6th | Yamina | Shaked | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 7th | Yisrael Beitenu | Liberman | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 8th | Labor | Peretz | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 9th | Democratic Union | Horwitz | 0 (3) | -5 | 5 |
| 10th | Otzma/Other | Ben Gvir | 0 (3) | -3 | 3 |
| Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM | 63 | 4 | 59 | ||
| Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM | 51 | -2 | 53 | ||
| Pushing Unity Government | 6 | -2 | 8 |
Few quick notes:
*For those who are wondering: In 2013 my mode had a 2-seat margin of error. In 2015 I had a 1-seat margin of error. In April 2019 I had a 3-seat margin of error. In all three elections there were two “exceptions” that did not meet the margin of error and the rest met the margin of error. This happen because there is usually a major swing where one party receives most of the undecided voters at the last minute that is difficult to project.
Phase 1 Recap:
#1 Likud: 38 seats:
How we got here: It took Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seven elections as Likud’s leader (1996, 1999, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015) to reach his peak of 35 seats. It didn’t matter because he couldn’t form a government and that is why we have repeat elections. Kahlon merged his Kulanu party into the Likud. This time it looks like Likud will gain an extra three seats – mostly from voters who voted for right-wing parties that did not pass the electoral threshold in April and partly from former Kulanu voters.
Why they could get more: If Netanyahu’s decision to repeat his 2015 & 2019A campaign strategy of a last-minute effort to attract right-wing voters from his bloc to Likud is a success. The danger of this approach is that if he succeeds too much, as he did in April, he might send some of his coalition partners under the electoral threshold, which could put his re-election as Prime Minister in jeopardy.
Why they could get less: If a significant number of Likud voters feel that Netanyahu has won and choose to skip the voting booth on their way to the beach or Yamina is able to win back some of the voters that have left for Likud in recent days.
#2 Blue & White: 35 seats:
How we got here: Ahead of the April elections, after years of scenario polls, the “big four” of Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashekenazi joined up to create the latest mega-party that markets itself as an alternative to Netanyahu. Gantz succeeded where Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in 2009 (28 seats) & Issac Herzog’s Zionist Union (24 seats) failed, as Blue & White won 35 seats in April. Right now it looks like Blue & White will retain their 35 seats.
Why they could get more: If Gantz is able to convince more anti-Netanyahu voters that he is the only alternative to Netanyahu.
Why they could get less: If Labor & Democratic Union voters decide to bolt back to their previous parties because they believe Gantz might take their votes and sit in a coalition government with Netanyahu.
#3 Joint List: 11 seats:
How we got here: The band is back together after splitting in April which led to a drop in seats compared to 2015. Turnout is expected to be higher in the non-Jewish sector this time around which will lead to an extra seat.
Why they could get more: If turnout is higher.
Why they could get less: If turnout is lower.
#4-tie UTJ: 9 seats:
How we got here: Before the April elections Agudat Yisrael agreed to Degel HaTorah’s terms and for the first time the two Ashkenazi parties that make up the faction are running on a 50%-50% slate. This move helped increase turnout among the Lithuanian sector and the party won 8 seats. Overall turnout is expected to be lower this time around and UTJ is expected to maintain their high turnout.
Why they could get more: If the general turnout is even lower than expected so UTJ is in a great spot to win a 10th seat.
Why they could get less: The more likely option is that the overall turnout is surprisingly high. The less likely option is if a larger number of undecided Haredi voters choose to vote for non-Haredi parties.
#4-tie Shas: 9 seats:
How we got here: As usual Shas, like UTJ, is focused on its base and most of the campaign has been devoted to bring-out-the-vote either through emotionally driven campaign videos or their ground game for election day.
Why they could get more: If additional Sephardi voters decide that Aryeh Deri represents them better than anyone else or that the late Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef still expects them to vote for Shas.
Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.
#6 Yamina: 7 seats:
How we got here: Naftali Bennett & Ayelet Shaked, the two most popular ministers of the 2015-2019 term in a series of polls before the elections, formed a new party 100 days before the April election but failed to pass the electoral threshold. Bennett handed control of the party over to Shaked who decided to run on a joint ticket with Bayit Yehudi and Tekuma.
Why they could get more: Early polls had the party in double digits and there are many undecided voters who list them as their second option.
Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.
#7 Yisrael Beitenu: 6 seats:
How we got here: Avigdor Liberman won 5 seats in the April elections. He nominated Netanyahu for Prime Minister. However, he refused to sign a coalition agreement with him. Instead of allowing Gantz the chance to form a government Liberman chose to support Netanyahu’s initiative for another election. Yisrael Beitenu chose to push for a national unity government and carry the flag of religion and state issues in this election. The initial results led them to double digit numbers. However, after Blue & White decided to champion their causes as well leading to a sharp decline in support. The final average gave them 8 seats and I expect them to lose another 2.
Why they could get more: If Lieberman is able to win back the votes he has lost to Blue & White in recent days.
Why they could get less: If Lieberman can’t stop the bleeding he might start flirting with the electoral threshold.
#8 Labor: 5 Seats:
How we got here: Amir Peretz replaced Avi Gabbai as leader of the historic party that established the country. He will be judged based on his decision to run on a joint ticket with Orly Levy’s Gesher over a joint ticket with Meretz.
Why they could get more: If Blue & White stumble during the stretch run there are many undecided voters on the center-left bloc that name Labor as their second choice.
Why they could get less: If even more voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc or decide to vote for the Democratic Union.
#9 Democratic Union: 0 (3) seats:
How we got here: Tamar Zandberg led Meretz to 4 seats and was ousted in the subsequent primary for Nitzan Horovitz. The new Meretz leader made a deal to run with Ehud Barak’s new party and the green movement which placed Labor MK Stav Shafir at its head. 4 of the top 6 spots are Meretz candidates. Like HaYamin HeHadash (New Right) of the last election the Democratic Union is losing voters at a fast pace to its counterpart in the bloc. The final average has them at 5 and I expect them to keep bleeding votes until they fall under the threshold.
Why they could get more: If the Democratic Union is able to convince undecided center-left voters that they are the only ones that can pull Gantz to the left.
Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.
#10 Otzma: 0 (3) seats:
How we got here: After the disqualification of multiple candidates Itamar Ben Gvir leads a list of relatively unknown candidates on a list that is passing in five of the last seven polls. In April, all of the polls showed both HaYamin HeHadash & Zehut passing the electoral threshold.
Why they could get more: Extremely low turnout.
Why they could get less: If Likud & Yamina are successful in saving more right wing votes from falling under the electoral threshold.
Right-Religious Bloc: 63
Likud 38 – UTJ 9 – Shas 9 – Yamina 7
How we got here: In April there was eight parties in the bloc but that has been reduced to four parties that are expected to pass the threshold. Kulanu and Zehut merged into Likud, HaYamin HeHadash joined the others in the Union of Right Parties and Yisrael Beitenu removed themselves from the bloc. Otzma is not expected to pass.
Why they could get more: If Likud is able to pick up undecided voters who are leaning Yisrael Beitenu.
Why they could get less: If somehow Netanyahu is too successful and Yamina drops under the electoral threshold.
Center-Left-Arab Bloc: 51
Blue & White 35 – Joint List 11 – Labor 5
How we got here: In April there was 5 parties that are ruling out joining a Netanyahu Government as part of their campaign. The Joint List is back however it looks like the Democratic Union might fall under the threshold.
Why they could get more: If Blue & White is able to pick up undecided voters who are leaning Yisrael Beitenu.
Why they could get less: If both Labor & Democratic Union fall under the threshold.
Yisrael Beitenu Bloc: 6
How we got here: Liberman set himself up to be the kingmaker.
Why they could get more: If he is able to win back the seats he has lost in recent days.
Why they could get less: If both Likud and Blue & White keep taking away more votes.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
No factor of nosm dropping out? What happened to Ron kobi?
On Mon, Sep 16, 2019, 11:35 Jeremy’s Knesset Insider wrote:
> Knesset Jeremy posted: ” Phase 1 Prediction Analysis The final Knesset > Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here: > https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yam” > >
Wow. That’s a clear bold prediction of a Bibi win with 63 seats. Lieberman will not be the kingmaker in your model, and Meretz will disappear. I’ll say it again: WOW. What’s your margin of error this time around?
3 seats
A ruling coalition of Likud, Haredim and the Yamina of Smotrich would be the most detested, most maligned government in the history of the State. The majority of Israeli citizens consider your coalition to be an absolute nightmare.
The political debate right now is over where the Center truly is…in this young democracy.
The electoral issue is turnout: Will Arabs and Tel Avivians remain politically apathetic?
My guess is that they come out and vote this time.
that’s nonsense as this is pretty much the standard right – religious block that has represented the majority for tens of years sans Lieberman
Can’t get it how from 510K voters Shas+UTJ will get around 620K votes? (35K*18)? Where those new 100K Haredim will coming from in 5 months? can you explain? and also how Likud+Yamina will get to 47, after in April they got 35+5+4? do you believe Likud got 3 of 4 Kulanu mandates?
Shas are Sephardi, they generally attract a broad spectrum of mizrahi voters
a very bold prediction and we can but hope for the 63 seats
Very gutsy prediction
Jeremy, you depress me. Another four years of Bibi with the Haredim in a power position. With the way the polls had been moving, I was starting to fear this. It is basically a rerun of the last time without the Bennett/Shaked votes being wasted and no Meretz last minute miracle. Unfortunately, it makes too much sense.
What is so depressing? Things have been pretty solid recently. The economy is booming. Security is as stable as it will get (small terrorist attacks/rockets are “better” than a full out war where many of our soldiers get killed. Netanyahu is building strong bridges with the world superpowers. Iran/Hezbolla is being kept under control. The Hareidi “powers” don’t really demand much except for equality and keeping the status quo.
Not depressing at all…
agreed
Bibi is burning bridges with the Democratic party and destroying the relationship with the USA. Trump is NOT the USA.
My prediction
39 likud
32 b & w
Joint list 10
Shas 9
Utj 9
Yisroel beteinu 7
Yamina 6
Avoda (labour) 4
Otzma 4
Meretz 0
Right chareidi 67
Left 36
Arab 10
Liberman 7
Netanyahu will want to make a right wing government without otzma or liberman (63 seats) but yamina and otzma will make a pact that they will only join the government together so Netanyahu will have to make a government with including otzma (67 seats)
But liberman might join the government after a few months
I don’t think otzma will fall under a the threshold because of a low voter turnout
Utj and shas will have a high voter turnouts
Especially shas since its during elul slichot ect
The past few elections likud always got 4-5 seats more than the polls and kachalon is with them now so I don’t think they’ll lose any seats and rather just stay 39
Yamina will lose some seats to Netanyahu’s “gevald” campaign he does every election
The joint list won’t get more than 10 because of a low voter turnout (like last time)
Meretz will fall under the threshold because of a low voter turnout
Avoda (labour) won’t either be to big because of a low voter turnout
Likud getting to 38 seats would take a perfect storm:
1. Turnout largely holds on the right but dips on the left.
2. Kulanu and Zehut voters follow Kahlon and Feiglin respectively back to Likud.
3. A fair number of Otzma voters vote Likud.
I disagree on most of this. Look at the last election and project it to this election. Kulanu plus Likud was 39. This forecast allows for some leakage. Zehut did not pass the threshold. If some Arab voters desert Meretz and go to the Joint list, we get this result. If Meretz survives we get 61 seats for the Right wing/religious coalition
Martin,
I don’t think we can really automatically combine previous Kulanu (or Zehut for that matter) votes into Likud. I believe Jeremy had one poll showing a split of ex Kulanu voters between Likud, YB, and B&W, though that’s one poll and I’d imagine the sample size of Kulanu voters quite small. Kulanu was a self proclaimed centrist party, and so in the absence of additional data we’re left with little more than educated guesses as to where ex-Kulanu voters will go. The same is true of Zehut voters (there’s very little data on where they’ll go as well, but at least from the April election it seems as though their voters were really from all across the board, and were much more attracted to the unique secular/libertarian aspect of the party rather than Feiglin’s messianism – which makes it all the more odd that he decided to emphasize how the party was right-wing, but I digress.
My argument is that Bibi has emphasized the right in center-right, it’s been a winning formula so far, and it may very well still be, but I don’t think he will attract many undecided centrist voters.