Category: Daily Updates


Phase 2 Update

On September 25th, President Rivlin chose Prime Minister Netanyahu as the first candidate to form Israel’s next government. Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised President Rivlin that he will not try to activate Section 12 of “Basic: Law The Government” which triggered the September Knesset Election.

The first candidate receives 28 days to form a government. The first candidate may ask for an extension and the President may grant him up to 14 days. Additionally, the President can choose to break up the 14 days into separate extensions and force the candidate to keep returning for additional extensions. In any event the first candidate cannot hold on to the mandate for more than 42 days.

The first candidate can choose at any point to hand back the mandate to the President early.

If the first candidate fails or chooses to return the mandate early that leaves the President with three options that he has up to three days to consider:

A) He can grant the mandate to the alternative candidate from the first round of consultations.

B) He can conduct another round of consultations in the hopes that an additional candidate will emerge in addition to the alternative candidate from the first consultations. The first candidate cannot be chosen as the second candidate.

In the event the the second candidate that is appointed in A or B fails to form a government the mandate is then transferred from the President to the Knesset.

C) He can choose to inform the Knesset Speaker that there is no second candidate and the mandate is then transferred from the President to the Knesset .

The Knesset then has two options:

A) For the next 21 days the Knesset may put forth a third candidate to the President by submitting 61 MKs signatures. Any MK can participate.

The President will have two days to process the request.

B) If the Knesset fails to put forth their own candidate that will automatically trigger a snap-election.

The third candidate has 14 days to inform the Speaker & President he has formed a government. The Speaker can delay the vote for an additional seven days if necessary.

In the event the third candidate fails to form a government a snap-election will automatically be triggered.

If all three candidates (or two if the President forfeits his ability to choose a second candidate himself) fail to form a government so a snap-election would take place 84-90 days later on a Tuesday.

Section 43 of “Basic Law: The Government” allows the Knesset in certain circumstances, within five days of the Knesset candidate failing to form a government, to push off the election up to 100 days if necessary.

This post includes two tables. The final election results and the Double Envelopes (Absentee Voting).

There are still 14 ballot boxes that have various issues with them but the combined total is not enough to change the seat allocation. Therefore these are the final results but not the official results. The official results must be certified by September 25th so the vote total could change slightly before the results are certified.

President Rivlin received permission from Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer to start the Phase 2 consultations before the Phase 1 results are certified. The Phase 2 consultations will be conducted Sunday and Monday. The President is expected to grant the mandate to form the next government on Monday.

Assuming neither candidate receives 61 nominations the President will still need to choose a candidate to form a government. It will be at his discretion in the event neither candidate reaches 61 nominations, but he must choose one of them. If the first candidate fails so the mandate will be returned to the President. The President can either conduct another round of consultations or grant the mandate to the alternative candidate from the first consultations. If the second candidate the President chooses fails to form a government so the mandate will be transferred from the President to the Knesset. The Knesset may put forth a third candidate to the President for his approval by submitting 61 MKs signatures. In the event the third candidate fails to form a government a snap-election will automatically be triggered and take place 84-90 days later on a Tuesday.

Table 1: Final Results

Eligible VotersTotal VotersTurnoutKosher VotesDisqualified Votes
6,394,0304,458,16769.72%4,430,56627,601
PartyLeaderSeatsPercentageVotes
Blue & WhiteGantz3325.93% 1,148,700
LikudNetanyahu3125.09% 1,111,535
Joint ListOdeh1310.62% 470,611
ShasDeri97.44% 329,834
Yisrael BeitenuLieberman86.99% 309,688
UTJLitzmna86.06% 268,688
YaminaShaked75.88% 260,339
LaborPeretz64.80% 212,529
Democratic UnionHorowitz54.34% 192,261
Under the 3.25% Electoral Threshold    
OtzmaBen Gvir01.88% 83,266
TzometGreen00.33% 14,817
 Other Parties Various 0 Each under 0.15% Each
under
6,000

Table 2: Absentee Votes/Double Envelopes

Total VotersKosher VotesDisqualified Votes
279,412277,2122,200
PartyPercentageVotes
Blue & White30.18% 83,670
Likud27.81% 77,096
Yamina8.85% 24,543
Shas6.29% 17,434
Yisrael Beitenu5.01% 13,879
Democratic Union4.95% 13,711
Labor4.72% 13,074
Joint List4.28% 11,858
UTJ4.17% 11,559
Otzma2.35% 6,520
Other PartiesEach under 0.4%Each under 1,100

This post includes three tables. The election results, the exit poll averages and the accuracy of the exit polls.

The final results including the double envelopes/absentee ballots are expected either tomorrow night or Friday morning. The results must be certified eight days after the election – September 25th.

President Rivlin can ask Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer permission to start the Phase 2 consultations before the Phase 1 results are certified. It is at Meltzer’s discretion to agree or not. In the April election Meltzer allowed Rivlin to carry out his consultations before the results were certified.

Table 1: Final Results before Double Envelopes (Absentee Voting)

PartyLeaderSeatsPercentage Votes
Blue & WhiteGantz3325.66% 1,035,624
LikudNetanyahu3225.03% 1,010,237
Joint ListOdeh1210.72% 432,741
ShasDeri97.57% 305,712
Yisrael BeitenuLieberman87.12% 287,305
UTJLitzmna86.23% 251,645
YaminaShaked75.72% 230,907
LaborPeretz64.81% 194,211
Democratic UnionHorowitz54.30% 173,374
Under the 3.25% Electoral Threshold (Under 6K not listed)    
OtzmaBen Gvir01.87% 75,301
TzometGreen00.34% 13,622

Table 2: Each Exit Poll & Exit Poll AVG

PartyExit Poll AVGChannel 11Channel 13Channel 12
Blue & White33323334
Likud32323133
Joint List12121311
Shas8.7998
Yisrael Beitenu8.71088
UTJ8888
Yamina7768
Labor5.3565
Democratic Union5.3565

Table 3: Accuracy of Exit Poll AVG

PartyExit Poll AVGCurrent ResultsDifference
Blue & White33330
Likud32320
Joint List12120
Shas8.79-0.3
Yisrael Beitenu8.78-0.7
UTJ880
Yamina770
Labor5.36-0.7
Democratic Union5.35-0.07

The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yamina-8-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8

The final Knesset Jeremy Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/16/phase-1-knesset-election-prediction-analysis/

The final Knesset Jeremy Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/17/phase-2-nominations-at-presidents-residence-prediction-analysis/

The rest of the schedule: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis

There are three votes that determine the Israeli Prime Minister. The first, or as I call it “Phase 1”, takes place tomorrow – the Knesset election for Israel’s legislative branch. The second, or as I call it “Phase 2”, takes place when the parties that enter the Knesset nominate a Prime Minister candidate at the President’s Residence. The third, or as I call it “Phase 3”, takes place when the person who was handed the mandate to form a coalition government presents his new government for a confidence vote in the Knesset.

In my previous posts I provided my predictions for Phase 1 and Phase 2. In this piece I will present my predictions for Phase 3.

Option #1: 63 MK coalition for Netanyahu: 38 Likud, 9 UTJ, 9 Shas, 7 Yamina

In this scenario all of the parties who nominated Netanyahu join his coalition.

Option #2: 66 MK coalition for Gantz: 35 Blue & White, *8 UTJ, *8 Shas, 6 Yisrael Beitenu, 5 Labor, *4 Democratic Union

This can happen if Gantz is given the mandate first to form a government or if he is given the mandate second. Either way, in this scenario, which takes into account my 3-seat margin of error, Gantz leads a coalition with the Haredim, Yisrael Beitenu and has the ability to either leave out Labor or Meretz if he so desires. The Joint List serves as a placeholder between Phase 2 and Phase 3 so that Gantz can form a government with both Shas & UTJ. In this scenario which is highly unlikely Lapid is able to sit with UTJ and Shas, Yaalon is able to sit with Lieberman and the Democratic Union is somehow able to sit with Yisrael Beitenu, UTJ & Shas.

Option #3: 73 MK National Unity Government with 38 Likud and 35 Blue & White.

There is no need for Yisrael Beitenu. This option needs to overcome to hurdle that Gantz is ruling out joining Netanyahu in the hopes that Netanyahu fails to form a government and Gantz will get the second crack at forming a coalition. This scenario can happen if Gantz gets the mandate first, fails and Netanyahu chooses to bring Blue & White into his government over negotiating with the other parties. In this scenario Netanyahu either remains Prime Minister for the entire term or he agrees to a rotation where he will step down at some point during the term in favor of Gantz. There is also the chance that Netanyahu offers Gantz the choice to replace his natural partners between Phase 2 & Phase 3 in order to pass through Trump’s deal of the century.

Option #4: Mystery MK forms coalition.

If both Netanyahu and Gantz fail to form a coalition the law allows any MK to sign 61 MKs on a nomination paper that he or she hands to the President. In this “wild west” scenario any MK can break with party lines and sign for whichever candidate he or she chooses. This is a scenario that will be the elephant in the room if indeed neither side receives 61 nominations. My model predicts 63 seats, yet with a 3-seat-margin-of-error it is possible we see a 60-60 tie between the nominating blocs which could eventually lead to this scenario. I don’t see this scenario playing out but the fact that it exists will influence the decisionmakers choices in Phase 2.

Prediction:

Option 1 would provide Netanyahu with an ideal coalition of his natural partners, yet he will have little flexibility in such a tight coalition. There would only be three coalition partners, but he would need to concede senior portfolios which could lead to issues within his own party.

Option 2 is a big stretch. UTJ & Shas have ruled out sitting with Lapid. Liberman refuses to sit with Meretz or with Yaalon. Yaalon and Meretz refuse to sit with Liberman. There does not seem to be enough senior portfolios to hand off to everyone. Gantz can’t offer anyone a better deal to defect when everyone would probably receive a better deal from Netanyahu.

Option 3 might provide the most stable government, especially if the Trump Peace Plan is indeed released between Phase 2 and Phase 3. In this scenario Gantz doesn’t need to nominate Netanyahu for Prime Minister. Gantz can fulfill his campaign pledge not to nominate Netanyahu at the President’s Residence and “replace” the right-religious bloc parties who had nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2 in Phase 3 by signing a coalition agreement. Gantz can justify it to his base that he alone can provide the stability needed for an Israeli government that would agree to pursue the Trump Peace Plan. The most difficult issue for Gantz to overcome is that Netanyahu’s legal cases are expected to keep moving forward and he will be the one keeping him in power. In the past Netanyahu has signed coalition deals with parties that have not nominated him in Phase 2. The most recent cases are Ehud Barak’s Labor Party in 2009 and Tzipi Livni’s HaTnuna Party in 2013.

Option 4 is the least likely but might get the most play in the media. If we do get there so there will be a lot of pressure to form a government because if not the country will automatically head to a third election.

The two most likely Phase 3 options are Option 1 or Option 3. It is difficult to predict which option Netanyahu will choose and he might pursue both of them simultaneously. He has done that in the past. The most recent case was in 2016 when Netanyahu negotiated with Herzog’s Zionist Union and Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu in efforts to expand his government. He did so during the April Elections negotiations when he simultaneously negotiated with Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu & with Avi Gabbai’s Labor.

I can’t determine at this time which option, between option 1 and option 3, is more likely but I can determine that the most likely option is that Prime Minister Netanyahu is re-elected in Phase 3.

To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!

The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yamina-8-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8

The final Knesset Jeremy Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/16/phase-1-knesset-election-prediction-analysis/

Last night I posted my Phase 1 Prediction Analysis:

38 Likud

35 Blue & White

11 Joint List

9 UTJ

9 Shas

7 Yamina

6 Yisrael Beitenu

5 Labor

0 (3) Democratic Union

0 (3) Otzma

  • The margin of error is 3 seats.

Today I am posting my Phase 2 Prediction Analysis:

Based on the Phase 1 predictions these are the three most likely scenarios for Phase 2 based on the math. Remember, President Rivlin is on record that if a Prime Minister candidate receives 61 or more nominations in the President’s Residence that he will grant them the chance to form the next government.

#1 Path to a Netanyahu Coalition:

63 nominations for Netanyahu: 38 Likud, 9 UTJ, 9 Shas, 7 Yamina

40 nominations for Gantz: 35 Blue & White, 5 Labor

17 Won’t nominate: 11 Joint List, 6 Yisrael Beitenu

#2 Path to a Gantz Coalition:

61 nominations for Gantz: 35 Blue & White, 11 Joint List, 6 Yisrael Beitenu, 5 Labor, *4 Meretz

59 nominations for Netanyahu: *37 Likud, *8 UTJ, *8 Shas, *6 Yamina

#3 Path to a National Unity (Netanyahu-Gantz) Coalition:

73 nominations: 38 Likud, 35 Blue & White

The 3 possible paths:

Path #1 is the most likely based on my model and indeed the most ideal for the Prime Minister. In this scenario the four lists who have made public commitments to endorse Netanyahu in Phase 2 receive 61+ seats.

Path #2 is less likely. In this scenario has 61 nominations because Democratic Union passes the electoral threshold at the expense of four seats being lost by the right. Additionally, both Yisrael Beitenu & The Joint List nominate Gantz. This is a theoretical scenario that can be taken into account within the margin of error. In this scenario Gantz would need to have UTJ & Shas replace The Joint List in order to actually form a coalition. How would he juggle UTJ & Lapid, Lieberman & Yaalon, Shas & Meretz? Well, as I said this is a less likely scenario.

Path #3 is the least likely. Historically, Presidents have only pursued national unity governments when neither side has a pathway to 61.

Timeline between Phase 1 and 2, and exactly how Phase 2 works:

Tuesday at 10 PM Israel time the voting will end and election will be over. Those who enter the polling station before 10 PM will still be allowed to vote. Each polling station will have a committee of three people, representing three different parties and those three people will tally the votes by hand. The party representatives will text the results to their headquarters so that the Party Leaders know the results before the television journalists. The official results will be entered into the computer and published on the Central Elections Committee website as the night goes on. Exit polls are closed at 8 PM and therefore will not include trends that affect the voting in the closing hours. The media focus will be on the exit polls until the middle of the night when a good percentage of the vote will have been counted.

By the morning we should have most of the votes in and the Phase 1 results should be rather clear. The “double-envelope” votes will not be included in these initial results. These are votes by citizens who voted overseas or in Israeli army bases, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails or polling station committee members. These votes will be counted afterwards in the Knesset itself. Expect a slight shift of a seat-or-two in the final Phase 1 results after the double-envelope votes are counted. This becomes particularly interesting for the parties that are close to the electoral threshold.

The unofficial negotiations that are conducted between Phase 1 and Phase 2 have almost always enabled one of the Prime Minister candidates to reach enough support to get the first crack at forming a government. President Rivlin is expected to meet with the Knesset factions in an unofficial capacity after the election results are clear. It is possible that Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer does not allow Rivlin to hold the consolations until the results are certified which is eight days after the election. The parties visit the President in order of party size. The law does not take the size of a party into account in terms of mandating who the President should select to form the next government. The law requires President Rivlin to sit with each of the newly elected lists before making a decision on who should get the first crack at forming a new government. Rivlin will make an announcement after all of the nominations are in. When the newly elected Knesset will be sworn in we will not yet have a new government at that date, but we should know who will get the first crack at putting together the next government.

Prediction:

Bottom line my prediction is that it will not be in President Rivlin’s hands. Someone is going to get a majority and the most likely candidate is Netanyahu. By law, in the event no one gets 61 seats, Rivlin can determine based on his own considerations “who has the best chance at forming a coalition”. This scenario seems unlikely based on the current projections. In each of the cases where this scenario did occur the President presented the mandate to whoever had the most seats even if that candidate failed to reach 61.

It is still possible that even if Netanyahu is nominated in Phase 2 that he doesn’t reach Phase 3 and that most likely means that Gantz gets a nod to be the second person to try Phase 2, although this option is highly unlikely in the case that Netanyahu gets a minimum of 61 recommendations.

If both Netanyahu and Gantz fail in Phase 2 are we headed to a third election? No. The law does grant a third candidate the chance to form a government if the first two candidates are not able to form a coalition. In this scenario any MK can present 61 MK signatures to the President and will be granted the chance to form a coalition. In this “wild west” scenario any MK can break with party lines and sign for whichever candidate he or she chooses. The President cannot choose the third candidate and he cannot force upon the sides to take upon themselves a national unity government. The rules to each scenario can be found in Basic Law: The Government

The rest of the KnessetJeremy schedule: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!

Phase 1 Prediction Analysis

The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yamina-8-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8/

This is the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2019:

PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremy Prediction ModelChangeLast KnessetJeremy AVG
1stLikudNetanyahu38533
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz35332
3rdThe Joint ListOdeh11011
4thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman918
5thShasDeri927
6thYaminaShaked7-18
7thYisrael BeitenuLiberman6-28
8thLaborPeretz505
9thDemocratic UnionHorwitz0 (3)-55
10thOtzma/OtherBen Gvir0 (3)-33
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM63459
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM51-253
Pushing Unity Government6-28

Few quick notes:

*For those who are wondering: In 2013 my mode had a 2-seat margin of error. In 2015 I had a 1-seat margin of error. In April 2019 I had a 3-seat margin of error. In all three elections there were two “exceptions” that did not meet the margin of error and the rest met the margin of error. This happen because there is usually a major swing where one party receives most of the undecided voters at the last minute that is difficult to project.

Phase 1 Recap:

#1 Likud: 38 seats:

How we got here: It took Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seven elections as Likud’s leader (1996, 1999, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015) to reach his peak of 35 seats. It didn’t matter because he couldn’t form a government and that is why we have repeat elections. Kahlon merged his Kulanu party into the Likud. This time it looks like Likud will gain an extra three seats – mostly from voters who voted for right-wing parties that did not pass the electoral threshold in April and partly from former Kulanu voters.

Why they could get more: If Netanyahu’s decision to repeat his 2015 & 2019A campaign strategy of a last-minute effort to attract right-wing voters from his bloc to Likud is a success. The danger of this approach is that if he succeeds too much, as he did in April, he might send some of his coalition partners under the electoral threshold, which could put his re-election as Prime Minister in jeopardy.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of Likud voters feel that Netanyahu has won and choose to skip the voting booth on their way to the beach or Yamina is able to win back some of the voters that have left for Likud in recent days.

#2 Blue & White: 35 seats:

How we got here: Ahead of the April elections, after years of scenario polls, the “big four” of Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashekenazi joined up to create the latest mega-party that markets itself as an alternative to Netanyahu.  Gantz succeeded where Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in 2009 (28 seats) & Issac Herzog’s Zionist Union (24 seats) failed, as Blue & White won 35 seats in April. Right now it looks like Blue & White will retain their 35 seats.

Why they could get more: If Gantz is able to convince more anti-Netanyahu voters that he is the only alternative to Netanyahu.

Why they could get less: If Labor & Democratic Union voters decide to bolt back to their previous parties because they believe Gantz might take their votes and sit in a coalition government with Netanyahu.

#3 Joint List: 11 seats:

How we got here: The band is back together after splitting in April which led to a drop in seats compared to 2015. Turnout is expected to be higher in the non-Jewish sector this time around which will lead to an extra seat.

Why they could get more: If turnout is higher.

Why they could get less: If turnout is lower.

#4-tie UTJ: 9 seats:

How we got here: Before the April elections Agudat Yisrael agreed to Degel HaTorah’s terms and for the first time the two Ashkenazi parties that make up the faction are running on a 50%-50% slate. This move helped increase turnout among the Lithuanian sector and the party won 8 seats. Overall turnout is expected to be lower this time around and UTJ is expected to maintain their high turnout.

Why they could get more: If the general turnout is even lower than expected so UTJ is in a great spot to win a 10th seat.

Why they could get less: The more likely option is that the overall turnout is surprisingly high. The less likely option is if a larger number of undecided Haredi voters choose to vote for non-Haredi parties.

#4-tie Shas: 9 seats:

How we got here: As usual Shas, like UTJ, is focused on its base and most of the campaign has been devoted to bring-out-the-vote either through emotionally driven campaign videos or their ground game for election day.

Why they could get more: If additional Sephardi voters decide that Aryeh Deri represents them better than anyone else or that the late Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef still expects them to vote for Shas.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#6 Yamina: 7 seats:

How we got here: Naftali Bennett & Ayelet Shaked, the two most popular ministers of the 2015-2019 term in a series of polls before the elections, formed a new party 100 days before the April election but failed to pass the electoral threshold. Bennett handed control of the party over to Shaked who decided to run on a joint ticket with Bayit Yehudi and Tekuma.

Why they could get more: Early polls had the party in double digits and there are many undecided voters who list them as their second option.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#7 Yisrael Beitenu: 6 seats:

How we got here: Avigdor Liberman won 5 seats in the April elections. He nominated Netanyahu for Prime Minister. However, he refused to sign a coalition agreement with him. Instead of allowing Gantz the chance to form a government Liberman chose to support Netanyahu’s initiative for another election. Yisrael Beitenu chose to push for a national unity government and carry the flag of religion and state issues in this election. The initial results led them to double digit numbers. However, after Blue & White decided to champion their causes as well leading to a sharp decline in support. The final average gave them 8 seats and I expect them to lose another 2.

Why they could get more: If Lieberman is able to win back the votes he has lost to Blue & White in recent days.

Why they could get less: If Lieberman can’t stop the bleeding he might start flirting with the electoral threshold.

#8 Labor: 5 Seats:

How we got here: Amir Peretz replaced Avi Gabbai as leader of the historic party that established the country. He will be judged based on his decision to run on a joint ticket with Orly Levy’s Gesher over a joint ticket with Meretz.

Why they could get more: If Blue & White stumble during the stretch run there are many undecided voters on the center-left bloc that name Labor as their second choice.

Why they could get less: If even more voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc or decide to vote for the Democratic Union.

#9 Democratic Union: 0 (3) seats:

How we got here: Tamar Zandberg led Meretz to 4 seats and was ousted in the subsequent primary for Nitzan Horovitz. The new Meretz leader made a deal to run with Ehud Barak’s new party and the green movement which placed Labor MK Stav Shafir at its head. 4 of the top 6 spots are Meretz candidates. Like HaYamin HeHadash (New Right) of the last election the Democratic Union is losing voters at a fast pace to its counterpart in the bloc. The final average has them at 5 and I expect them to keep bleeding votes until they fall under the threshold.

Why they could get more: If the Democratic Union is able to convince undecided center-left voters that they are the only ones that can pull Gantz to the left.

Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.

#10 Otzma: 0 (3) seats:

How we got here: After the disqualification of multiple candidates Itamar Ben Gvir leads a list of relatively unknown candidates on a list that is passing in five of the last seven polls. In April, all of the polls showed both HaYamin HeHadash & Zehut passing the electoral threshold.

Why they could get more: Extremely low turnout.

Why they could get less: If Likud & Yamina are successful in saving more right wing votes from falling under the electoral threshold.

Right-Religious Bloc: 63

Likud 38 – UTJ 9 – Shas 9 – Yamina 7

How we got here: In April there was eight parties in the bloc but that has been reduced to four parties that are expected to pass the threshold. Kulanu and Zehut merged into Likud, HaYamin HeHadash joined the others in the Union of Right Parties and Yisrael Beitenu removed themselves from the bloc. Otzma is not expected to pass.

Why they could get more: If Likud is able to pick up undecided voters who are leaning Yisrael Beitenu.

Why they could get less: If somehow Netanyahu is too successful and Yamina drops under the electoral threshold.

Center-Left-Arab Bloc: 51

Blue & White 35 – Joint List 11 – Labor 5

How we got here: In April there was 5 parties that are ruling out joining a Netanyahu Government as part of their campaign. The Joint List is back however it looks like the Democratic Union might fall under the threshold.

Why they could get more: If Blue & White is able to pick up undecided voters who are leaning Yisrael Beitenu.

Why they could get less: If both Labor & Democratic Union fall under the threshold.

Yisrael Beitenu Bloc: 6

How we got here: Liberman set himself up to be the kingmaker.

Why they could get more: If he is able to win back the seats he has lost in recent days.

Why they could get less: If both Likud and Blue & White keep taking away more votes.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls (Updated September 14th)

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChange41-Poll-AVGApril Results
1stLikudNetanyahu3332.91.531.439
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz32321.230.835
3rdThe Joint ListOdeh1111.20.510.710
4thYaminaShaked88.3-1.59.85
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman88.4-1.29.65
6thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman87.60.27.48
7thShasDeri77-0.17.18
8thDemocratic UnionHorwitz55.1-1.46.54
9thLaborPeretz54.7-0.95.66
10thOtzma/OtherBen Gvir32.81.71.10
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM5958.61.856.860
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM5353-0.653.655
Pushing Unity Government88.4-1.29.65

Note #1: The KnessetJeremy Average is based on the last seven polls that were released by Midgam, Smith, Maagar Mochot, Kantar, Panel Project HaMdigam, Panels & Shvakim Panorama. Otzma does not pass the electoral threshold in Smith or Panels but passes in 5 of the 7 polls. In rare statistical circumstances parties can receive 3 seats so I have left the 3-seat result in the average which also allows me to maintain an 120-seat framework.

Note #2: The 41-Poll-Average is based on the last 41 polls that were conducted from July 30th until September 13 (last six weeks): 12 Midgam, 8 Smith, 5 Maagar Mochot, 5 Kantar/Teleseker, 6 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls, 2 Panels & 1 Shvakim Panorama.

Note #3: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election. Zehut resigned and 31 parties remain.

Note #4: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Democratic Union, B) Blue and White & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & Yamina. D) Shas & UTJ. E) Otzma & Noam. The Joint List did not sign with any other list.

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Final Note: I will post my final prediction based on my model tomorrow. As always the final prediction will be different than the final average because it takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Friday: Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.

Channel 12 (Midgam/Gava) & Channel 13 (Panel Project HaMidgam/Fuchs) will both release their last polls later tonight. 4 pollsters have already released their last polls: 103 FM/Maariv (Smith), Knesset Channel (Panels/Lazar), Yisrael Hayom (Maagar Mochot/Katz) & Channel 11/Kan (Kantar/Teleseker).

Saturday Night: Tomorrow night I will post the final Knesset Jeremy’s Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls. Additionally, I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis.

Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.

Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.

Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).

Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.

September-October-November: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government.

Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com

Update: Additional polls by Maariv & Ynet have been added. My final prediction has been postponed to Sunday and will appear with the Phase 1 Analysis piece.

In the 2019 Israeli general election Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party finished in first place among the population living in Judea and Samaria with 23.12% of the vote. The Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox UTJ finished in second place with 18.95% of the vote. The nationalist Union of Right-Wing Parties finished in third with 18.18%. HaYamin HeHadash, led by Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, which did not pass the 3.25% electoral threshold, captured 10.66% of the settler vote. Blue & White, led by Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid, finished in fifth place in the settlements with 8.65%.

The Settler Vote represents about 5.2 of the Knesset’s 120 seats in 2019, up from about 4.9 seats in 2015. The voter turnout was down from 79.5% in 2015 to 77.9% in 2019. The turnout was higher than the national average of 68.5%. In 2015 the settler turnout was 72.3%.

The Judea and Samaria (West Bank) District is divided into four designations: Cities (4), Local Councils-Towns (13), Regional Councils (6) and non-Area C (Hebron).

Party-By-Party Breakdown

Likud:

In this election Likud earned 1.19 seats from the Judea and Samaria district compared to 1.17 seats in 2015. They had increased their support over the green line from 21% in the 2013 election to about 24% in 2015. This time Likud captured 23.1%.

Likud won two cities (Ma’ale Adumim, Ariel) and three towns (Givat Ze’ev, Beit Aryeh and Ma’ale Efraim). Likud won 29 settlements in the regional councils compared to 25 in 2015. Likud finished first place in six settlements in Binyamin, ten in the Shomron, three in Gush Etzion, two in Har Hevron, six in the Jordan Valley and two in Megilot. Likud was the only party to win at least one settlement in all six regional councils.

UTJ:

In this election UTJ earned 0.97 seats from beyond the green line compared to 0.81 seats in 2015. UTJ jumped from 16.6% in 2015 to 19% in 2019. Although a majority of their vote came from Modi’in Iliit and Betar Illit, UTJ won the town of Immanuel and three additional settlements (Matityahu, Metzad, Ma’ale Amos).

Union of Right-wing Parties:

Despite the ‘settler party’ label, only 18.2% of settlers voted for the union of Bayit Yehudi, National Union-Tekuma and Otzma. In 2015 Bayit Yehudi had won 25%, a drop from 28% in the 2013 elections. Yachad, which included Otzma in 2015 and did not pass the threshold, had 9.6% of the settler vote in 2015. Back in 2015 14.4% of Bayit Yehudi’s overall vote came from the settlements. That number jumped to 21.1% of the URP’s overall vote for 2019. Bayit Yehudi and Yachad received a combined 1.7 seats share from the settlement vote in 2015. URP received 0.93 seats in 2019.

URP finished first place in the five towns of Karnei Shomron, Kiryat Arba, Beit-El, Kedumim and Elkana. URP was also first place among the six regional councils. URP finished first place in 15 settlements in Binyamin, 15 settlements in the Shomron, just two in Gush Etzion, 12 in Har Hevron and four in the Jordan Valley. Overall the URP won 48 settlements in the regional councils compared to the 57 that Bayit Yehudi won in 2015 and five that Yachad had won the same year.

HaYamin HeHadash:

HaYamin HeHadash received 0.55 seats from the settlements that represented 14.3% of all votes cast for their party. They finished first place in the town of Efrat. HYHH finished in third place among the six regional councils. In Binyamin they finished first place in Kfar Adumim and Hashmonaim. In the Shomron they finished first in Alei Zahav. HYHH’s best showing was in Gush Etzion where they finished first overall and won seven of the 14 settlements within the regional council, including the four settlements with the highest population. The party finished first place in Alon Shvut, Tekoa, Neve Daniel, Elazar, Rosh Tzurim, Kfar Etzion and Migdal Oz. HYHH finished second place in Har Hevron but only won one settlement there, Sansana. HYHH finished fourth in the Jordan Valley and won just one settlement, Hemdat. HYHH finished fourth in Megilot and second in Hebron.

Blue & White:

Blue & White’s 8.7% improved on Yesh Atid’s 2015 showing of 4.3%. Blue & White received 0.44 seats from the settlements compared to the 0.21 seats Yesh Atid received in 2015. Blue & White won the towns of Oranit, Alfei Menashe and Har Adar.

In Binyamin they won Kfar Oranim and Nili. In the Shomron they won Sal’it and Reihan. In the Jordan Valley they won Tomer, Netiv HaGdud, Ro’I, Neama, Mekhora and Gilal. Blue & White finished first place in Megilot and won Kalya, Almog and Mitzpe Shalem.

Shas:

Shas finished sixth in the region with 8.43%, an improvement from the 7.2% showing from 2015. Shas earned less than half a seat from the district. Most of Shas’ votes across the green line are from the three cities of Modi’in Illit, Ma’ale Adumim, and Betar Illit, the town of Giv’at Zeev and the settlements of Immanuel and Adam. Shas came in first in the settlements of Kokhav Yaakov and Ganei Modiin.

Zehut:

Zehut, led by ex-Likud MK Moshe Feiglin, was expected to do well in the settlements and instead finished in just seventh place with 4.91%, still higher than their national average of 2.74%. 7.72% of all Zehut voters were from beyond the green line. Zehut finished seventh among cities, sixth among the local councils and fifth among the regional councils. Zehut did not finish in first place in any city, town or settlement.

Yisrael Beitenu:

Avigdor Liberman’s party finished in eighth place in the settlements with 1.9% of the vote compared to 2.8% of the vote in 2015. 67.76% of all the votes Yisrael Beitenu received in the Judea and Samaria district came from the cities of Ariel and Ma’ale Adumim. Yisrael Beitenu did not finish in first place in any city, town or settlement.

Kulanu:

Moshe Kahlon’s party finished in ninth place with 1.79% compared to 3.7% of the settler vote in 2015. 56% of the vote came from six places (Ma’ale Adumim, Ariel, Givat Zeev, Oranit, Alfei Meneshe & Beit Aryeh). Kulanu did not finish in first place in any city, town or settlement.

Others:

Orly Levy’s Gesher Party finished in 10th with 1.38% of the vote, ahead of Labor.

Labor, which started the settlement movement, finished in 11th place with 1.1% of the vote including a first-place finish in Niran. In the 2015 election the Zionist Union picked up 4.9% of the district vote., including a victory in the town of Har Adar and 11 settlements.

The anti-settler Meretz party picked up 853 settler votes compared to the 1,121 settler votes it won in 2015.

Hadah-Taal & Raam-Balad won a combined 58 votes. Back in 2015, The Joint (Arab) List picked up 75 votes.

Judea and Samaria (West Bank) District Voting:

AreaKosher VotesEligible VotesLikudUTJURP/Bayit YehudiHaYamin HeHadash
Cities 2015654198353114448247114558n/a
Cities 201972,46194,93315,35230,7953,4242,067
Regional Councils 201556624693061356993023947n/a
Regional Councils 201967276842061512817522080212196
Local Councils 2015416545315511199164412423n/a
Local Councils 2019453775872812365258493295473
Not Area-C 201523127116090n/a
Not Area-C 201922628517015721
Total 2015163928206263392322728541018n/a
Total 201918534023815242862351313371219757
2015%79.50%n/a23.90%16.60%25.00%n/a
2019%77.82%n/a23.12%18.95%18.18%10.66%
2015 Seats4.8966.161.170.811.23n/a
2019 Seats5.1616.6311.190.970.930.55
AreaKosher VotesEligible VotesLikudUTJURP/Bayit YehudiHaYamin HeHadash
AreaBlue & White/Yesh AtidShasZehut/YachadYisrael BeitenuKulanuGesher
Cities 201517188331426128392191n/a
Cities 20193,33210,2732,1022,3941,213681
Regional Councils 20152062171775689771975n/a
Regional Councils 201954983053453963611631043
Local Councils 20153218169938147871916n/a
Local Councils 2019720523052456490950844
Not Area-C 20152111405n/a
Not Area-C 20196121110
Total 20157000117481575746036087n/a
Total 201916041156329118352133272568
2015%4.30%7.20%9.60%2.80%3.70%n/a
2019%8.65%8.43%4.91%1.89%1.79%1.38%
2015 Seats0.210.350.470.140.18n/a
2019 Seats0.440.430.250.090.090.07
AreaBlue & White/Yesh AtidShasZehut/YachadYisrael BeitenuKulanuGesher
AreaLabor/Zionist UnionMeretzOtherArabs
Cities 20151459221682n/a
Cities 2019359150n/a18
Regional Councils 20152729371779n/a
Regional Councils 2019878346n/a27
Local Councils 20153836529589n/a
Local Councils 2019835356n/a13
Not Area-C 2015201n/a
Not Area-C 20190100
Total 2015802611212051n/a
Total 2019207285374658
2015%4.90%0.70%1.30%n/a
2019%1.11%0.46%0.40%0.03%
2015 Seats0.240.030.06n/a
2019 Seats0.050.020.02n/a
AreaLabor/Zionist UnionMeretzOtherArabs
CityKosher VotesEligible VotesUTJLikudShasURP/Bayit YehudiBlue & White/Yesh Atid
Modi’in Iliit 2015198662352915044256334225910
Modi’in Iliit 201922,38527,23218,0082063,83310522
Modi’in Iliit 2019%n/a84.47%80.45%0.92%17.12%0.47%0.10%
Ma’ale Adumim 201519860267092899472100028951144
Ma’ale Adumim 201920,25727,83922110,0931,0611,6782,049
Ma’ale Adumim 2019%n/a73.12%1.09%49.82%5.24%8.28%10.12%
Betar Illit 20151597619103934723439041018
Betar Illit 201919,81624,74012,5326795,25396129
Betar Illit 2019%n/a80.80%63.24%3.43%26.51%4.85%0.15%
Ariel 2015971714190314486851303556
Ariel 201910,00315,122344,3741266801,232
Ariel 2019%n/a66.76%0.34%43.73%1.26%6.80%12.32%
Total 201565419835312471114448833145581718
Total 201972,46194,93330,79515,35210,2733,4243,332
CityKosher VotesEligible VotesUTJLikudShasURP/Bayit YehudiBlue & White/Yesh Atid
CityYisrael BeitenuZehut/YachadHaYamin HeHadashKulanuOtherGesherLabor/Zionist Union
Modi’in Iliit 201515818n/a29122n/an/a
Modi’in Iliit 2019311633124747
Modi’in Iliit 2019%0.01%0.52%0.15%0.05%0.21%n/an/a
Ma’ale Adumim 20151248844n/a15302968n/an/a
Ma’ale Adumim 20199611,0231,418798955511228
Ma’ale Adumim 2019%4.74%5.05%7.00%3.94%4.72%n/an/a
Betar Illit 2015262249n/a27107n/an/a
Betar Illit 20195219842133110
Betar Illit 2019%0.03%1.11%0.42%0.11%0.15%n/an/a
Ariel 20151550350n/a6051356n/an/a
Ariel 20191,425744532382474165114
Ariel 2019%14.25%7.44%5.32%3.82%4.72%n/an/a
Total 201528394261n/a2,1914,553n/an/a
Total 20192,3942,1022,0671,2131,509681359
CityYisrael BeitenuZehut/YachadHaYamin HeHadashKulanuOtherGesherLabor/Zionist Union
Local CouncilKosher VotesEligible VotesLikudURP/Bayit YehudiBlue & White/Yesh AtidHaYamin HeHadashUTJ
Giv’at Ze’ev 20157802101092644813498n/a1051
Giv’at Ze’ev 20198,69511,4312,9056338024011,726
Giv’at Ze’ev 2019%n/a76.41%33.41%7.28%9.22%4.61%19.85%
Efrat 2015456958681394250171n/a26
Efrat 20195,4736,9511,3361,2472091,86634
Efrat 2019%n/a78.95%24.41%22.78%3.82%34.09%0.62%
Oranit 20154651569012146781004n/a35
Oranit 20195,0296,3081,3101542,12048023
Oranit 2019%n/a79.88%26.05%3.06%42.16%9.54%0.46%
Alfei Menashe 2015423753661286404866n/a39
Alfei Menashe 20194,3245,7111,369461,77020741
Alfei Menashe 2019%n/a75.87%31.66%1.06%40.93%4.79%0.95%
Karnei Shomron 2015366247571107168261n/a24
Karnei Shomron 20194,0905,3261,2071,27118865234
Karnei Shomron 2019%n/a77.15%29.51%31.08%4.60%15.94%0.83%
Kiryat Araba 201533194492834114115n/a11
Kiryat Araba 20193,4424,7041,1481,5756622948
Kiryat Araba 2019%n/a73.45%33.35%45.76%1.92%6.65%1.39%
Beit El 20152726321030816042n/a19
Beit El 20192,8193,3183102,005925539
Beit El 2019%n/a85.14%11.00%71.12%0.32%9.05%1.38%
Beit Aryeh-Ofarim 201524043082932520254n/a15
Beit Aryeh-Ofarim 20192,6643,5811,1318666017020
Beit Aryeh-Ofarim 2019%n/a74.76%42.45%3.23%24.77%6.38%0.75%
Har Adar 20152125266839292388n/a2
Har Adar 20192,3683,003482151,2031082
Har Adar 2019%n/a79.02%20.35%0.63%50.80%4.56%0.08%
Kedumim 20152045238241013326n/a12
Kedumim 20192,1772,6094181,1002443617
Kedumim 2019%n/a83.67%19.20%50.53%1.10%20.03%0.78%
Elkana 201520942455362145925n/a11
Elkana 20192,1202,5013888636162815
Elkana 2019%n/a84.89%18.30%40.71%2.88%29.62%0.71%
Immanuel 20151380191179641n/a395
Immanuel 20191,5482,149118221218574
Immanuel 2019%n/a72.68%7.62%14.28%0.13%1.16%37.08%
Ma’ale Efraim 2015640116523713327n/a4
Ma’ale Efraim 20196281,136243113912311
Ma’ale Efraim 2019%n/a55.63%38.69%17.99%14.49%3.66%1.75%
Total 2015416545315511199124233218n/a1644
Total 20194537758728123659329720554732584
Local CouncilKosher VotesEligible VotesLikudURP/Bayit YehudiBlue & White/Yesh AtidHaYamin HeHadashUTJ
Local CouncilZehut/YachadShasKulanuLabor/Zionist UnionOtherGesherYisrael Beitenu
Giv’at Ze’ev 2015599875472567283n/an/a
Giv’at Ze’ev 20193071,304201130286 137 76
Giv’at Ze’ev 2019%3.53%15.00%2.31%1.50%3.29%n/an/a
Efrat 20152443210781113n/an/a
Efrat 2019482527940128 72 12
Efrat 2019%8.81%0.95%1.44%0.73%2.35%n/an/a
Oranit 201557433381003279n/an/a
Oranit 201923344186181298 171 46
Oranit 2019%4.63%0.87%3.70%3.60%5.93%n/an/a
Alfei Menashe 20155350393879267n/an/a
Alfei Menashe 20191705218217830916973
Alfei Menashe 2019%3.93%1.20%4.21%4.12%7.15%n/an/a
Karnei Shomron 2015277829987243n/an/a
Karnei Shomron 2019399835525176 29 98
Karnei Shomron 2019%9.76%2.03%1.34%0.61%4.30%n/an/a
Kiryat Araba 20151006344730201n/an/a
Kiryat Araba 2019178502451191086
Kiryat Araba 2019%5.17%1.45%0.70%0.15%3.46%n/an/a
Beit El 20157242010534n/an/a
Beit El 2019147325512 4 2
Beit El 2019%5.21%1.14%0.18%0.18%0.42%n/an/a
Beit Aryeh-Ofarim 20155247205261118n/an/a
Beit Aryeh-Ofarim 2019158621156519712941
Beit Aryeh-Ofarim 2019%5.93%2.33%4.32%2.44%7.40%n/an/a
Har Adar 2015915162824241n/an/a
Har Adar 20196211621942298112
Har Adar 2019%2.62%0.46%2.62%8.19%9.69%n/an/a
Kedumim 20152281813521n/an/a
Kedumim 2019125295122610
Kedumim 2019%5.74%1.33%0.23%0.05%1.10%n/an/a
Elkana 201515117252222n/an/a
Elkana 2019842025432 17 5
Elkana 2019%3.96%0.94%1.18%0.19%1.51%n/an/a
Immanuel 20153604593217n/an/a
Immanuel 20194955801700
Immanuel 2019%3.17%36.05%0%0.06%0.45%n/an/a
Ma’ale Efraim 2015547427066n/an/a
Ma’ale Efraim 201962811660 19 29
Ma’ale Efraim 2019%9.87%1.27%1.75%0.96%9.57%n/an/a
Total 201538141699191638361905n/an/a
Total 2019245623059508351875844490
Local CouncilZehut/YachadShasKulanuLabor/Zionist UnionOtherGesherYisrael Beitenu
Regional CouncilKosher VotesEligible VotesURP/Bayit YehudiLikudHaYamin HeHadashBlue & White/Yesh AtidZehut/Yachad
Binyamin 20152509330609100865430n/a8684238
Binyamin 2019298273740898226139456421711843
Shomron 2015156681918264944346n/a6201844
Shomron 2019192782373662285063326317181192
Gush Etzion 201596781189648672596n/a170850
Gush Etzion 20191060213527247823773133476981
Har Hevron 2015328037651680536n/a117514
Har Hevron 2019408750401732712761304283
Jord. Valley 201522512993732540n/a196121
Jord. Valley 201926403385523659402536177
Megilot 201565486188121n/a911
Megilot 20198421110191787329363
6 Councils 201556624693062394713569n/a20627568
6 Councils 2019672768420620802151281219654984539
Regional CouncilKosher VotesEligible VotesURP/Bayit YehudiLikudHaYamin HeHadashBlue & White/Yesh AtidZehut/Yachad
Regional CouncilShasUTJKulanuGesherLabor/Zionist UnionYisrael BeitenuMeretz
Binyamin 20151359646799n/a1019254n/a
Binyamin 201924761299448357302168154
Shomron 2015210n/a599n/a781384n/a
Shomron 201935910740027924725382
Gush Etzion 2015125199259n/a216195n/a
Gush Etzion 201916932316315111815043
Har Hevron 201512n/a113n/a13958n/a
Har Hevron 201928167355384823
Jord. Valley 20158n/a137n/a35376n/a
Jord. Valley 20191734813595923
Megilot 20153n/a68n/a22110n/a
Megilot 201944316678821
6 Councils 20151717n/a1975n/a2729977n/a
6 Councils 20193053175211631043878636346
Regional CouncilShasUTJKulanuGesherLabor/Zionist UnionYisrael BeitenuMeretz
BinyaminKosher VotesEligible VotesURP/Bayit YehudiLikudHaYamin HeHadashShasBlue & White/Yesh Atid
Kokhav Ya’akov 201526843243419248n/a8482
Kokhav Ya’akov 20193,2954,085844337120119511
Kokhav Ya’akov 2019%n/a81.25%25.61%10.23%3.64%36.27%0.33%
Adam 201521612743363869n/a24975
Adam 20192,2963,1162981017153339148
Adam 2019%n/a74.13%12.98%44.29%6.66%14.76%6.45%
Kfar Adumim 201516812062601619n/a4111
Kfar Adumim 20191,9732,4961705466018277
Kfar Adumim 2019%n/a79.25%8.62%27.67%30.46%0.41%14.04%
Hashmonaim 201517362188865480n/a7513
Hashmonaim 20191,7962,3054494045567959
Hashmonaim 2019%n/a78.13%25.00%22.49%30.96%4.40%3.29%
Talmon 201513571538869106n/a92
Talmon 20191,7542,0251163136311153
Talmon 2019%n/a86.91%66.31%7.75%17.73%0.86%0.17%
Eli 201515251900760323n/a210
Eli 20191,6712,1059313142682312
Eli 2019%n/a79.43%55.72%18.79%16.04%1.38%0.72%
Shilo 201513091554761194n/a51
Shilo 20191,5811,917903202295205
Shilo 2019%n/a82.58%57.12%12.78%18.66%1.27%0.32%
Ofra 2015147917821051246n/a24
Ofra 20191,4971,869575233508820
Ofra 2019%n/a80.20%38.41%15.56%33.93%0.53%1.34%
Ganei Modiin 20191,4201,825276275715689
Ganei Modiin 2019%n/a78.41%19.44%19.37%5.00%40.00%0.63%
Kfar HaOranim 20151099135866128n/a2261
Kfar HaOranim 20191,2111,58711159403724
Kfar HaOranim 2019%n/a76.50%0.91%13.13%3.30%0.25%59.79%
Mitzpe Yeriho 20159871166526151n/a113
Mitzpe Yeriho 20191,0341,272593170139232
Mitzpe Yeriho 2019%n/a81.53%57.35%16.44%13.44%2.22%0.19%
Kokhav HaShahar 2015871101449474n/a30
Kokhav HaShahar 20199961,17762988161134
Kokhav HaShahar 2019%n/a84.71%63.15%8.84%16.16%1.31%0.40%
Mevo Horon 201585894244864n/a251
Mevo Horon 20199851,0946667993405
Mevo Horon 2019%n/a90.22%67.61%8.02%9.44%4.06%0.51%
Na’ale 2015629785125198n/a481
Na’ale 20198581,12124332835236
Na’ale 2019%n/a77.07%2.80%38.69%9.67%0.58%27.51%
Psagot 2015825957500122n/a42
Psagot 20198571,00055311414221
Psagot 2019%n/a85.80%64.53%13.30%16.57%0.23%0.12%
Nili 2015669832116223n/a497
Nili 20198421,0899281724288
Nili 2019%n/a77.50%1.07%33.37%8.55%0.48%34.20%
Ma’ale Mikhmas 2015681781391119n/a132
Ma’ale Mikhmas 2019746925354128174172
Ma’ale Mikhmas 2019%n/a80.65%47.45%17.16%23.32%2.28%0.27%
Almon 2015640825101327n/a675
Almon 201973395115390715108
Almon 2019%n/a77.08%2.05%53.21%9.69%0.68%14.73%
Giv’on HaHasasha 2015749102695272n/a19108
Giv’on HaHasasha 20197161,015222556116170
Giv’on HaHasasha 2019%n/a70.94%3.07%35.61%8.52%2.23%23.74%
Dolev 201560872545973n/a00
Dolev 20196858133517717983
Dolev 2019%n/a84.38%51.24%11.24%26.13%1.17%0.44%
Beit Horon 2015606706281184n/a810
Beit Horon 20196678031401871651437
Beit Horon 2019%n/a83.56%20.99%28.04%24.74%2.10%5.55%
Halamish 2015629761387140n/a84
Halamish 201960775225811616396
Halamish 2019%n/a80.98%42.50%19.11%26.85%1.48%0.99%
Rimonim 201531545453164n/a916
Rimonim 20193565132619729239
Rimonim 2019%n/a69.59%7.30%55.34%8.15%0.56%10.96%
Matityahu 20152183411214n/a90
Matityahu 2019338458985180
Matityahu 2019%n/a75.11%2.66%2.37%1.48%5.33%0
Ma’ale Levona 201528935913758n/a00
Ma’ale Levona 2019335405208444360
Ma’ale Levona 2019%n/a82.72%62.09%13.13%12.84%1.79%0
Nahliel 20152442882713n/a190
Nahliel 2019258330136225340
Nahliel 2019%n/a78.18%52.71%8.53%1.94%13.18%0
Ateret 201524427917921n/a20
Ateret 2019256295160255212
Ateret 2019%n/a86.78%62.50%9.77%20.31%0.39%0.78%
Amichai 20196465493410
Amichai 2019%n/a98.46%76.56%4.69%6.25%1.56%0
Total 20152509330609100865430n/a1359868
Total 2019298273740898226139456424762171
BinyaminKosher VotesEligible VotesURP/Bayit YehudiLikudHaYamin HeHadashShasBlue & White/Yesh Atid
BinyaminZehut/YachadUTJKulanuGesherLabor/Zionist UnionOther
Kokhav Ya’akov 201585427611n/a521
Kokhav Ya’akov 201916460210417
Kokhav Ya’akov 2019%4.98%18.27%0.30%0.12%0.03%0.22%
Adam 201527630150n/a6782
Adam 20191404349321958
Adam 2019%6.10%1.87%2.13%1.39%0.83%2.54%
Kfar Adumim 2015607100n/a11861
Kfar Adumim 20191101079726040
Kfar Adumim 2019%5.58%0.51%4.00%3.65%3.04%2.02%
Hashmonaim 20151644646n/a1829
Hashmonaim 2019155371817814
Hashmonaim 2019%8.63%2.06%1.00%0.95%0.45%0.77%
Talmon 2015353131n/a13
Talmon 201995243103
Talmon 2019%5.42%1.37%0.17%0.06%00.16%
Eli 2015365915n/a527
Eli 2019788121321
Eli 2019%4.67%0.48%0.72%0.06%0.18%1.24%
Shilo 201532735n/a013
Shilo 2019133104108
Shilo 2019%8.41%0.63%0.25%0.06%00.50%
Ofra 2015136412n/a519
Ofra 201913419324
Ofra 2019%8.95%0.07%0.60%0.20%0.13%0.28%
Ganei Modiin 20198411610326
Ganei Modiin 2019%5.92%8.17%0.70%0.21%0.14%0.42%
Kfar HaOranim 201514596n/a44087
Kfar HaOranim 2019199294010671
Kfar HaOranim 2019%1.57%0.74%2.39%3.30%8.75%5.87%
Mitzpe Yeriho 20152591212n/a112
Mitzpe Yeriho 201973199231
Mitzpe Yeriho 2019%7.06%1.84%0.87%0.19%0.29%0.11%
Kokhav HaShahar 201528515n/a09
Kokhav HaShahar 201980142401
Kokhav HaShahar 2019%8.03%1.41%0.20%0.40%00.10%
Mevo Horon 2015282323n/a03
Mevo Horon 201939571221
Mevo Horon 2019%3.96%5.79%0.10%0.20%0.20%0.11%
Na’ale 20159367n/a9745
Na’ale 201936341491534
Na’ale 2019%4.20%0.35%4.78%5.71%1.75%3.96%
Psagot 201518911n/a24
Psagot 20192954223
Psagot 2019%3.38%0.58%0.47%0.23%0.23%0.36%
Nili 20153574n/a8661
Nili 201948441353228
Nili 2019%5.70%0.48%4.87%4.16%3.80%3.32%
Ma’ale Mikhmas 201513567n/a17
Ma’ale Mikhmas 20195055614
Ma’ale Mikhmas 2019%6.70%0.67%0.67%0.80%0.13%0.55%
Almon 20155152n/a3637
Almon 201941035281228
Almon 2019%5.59%04.77%3.82%1.64%3.82%
Giv’on HaHasasha 201512083n/a10060
Giv’on HaHasasha 201944541312744
Giv’on HaHasasha 2019%6.15%0.70%5.73%4.33%3.77%6.15%
Dolev 20155913n/a49
Dolev 20195724040
Dolev 2019%8.32%0.29%0.58%00.58%0
Beit Horon 2015511331n/a1216
Beit Horon 2019778181029
Beit Horon 2019%11.54%1.20%2.70%1.50%0.30%1.34%
Halamish 20157263n/a09
Halamish 20194152016
Halamish 2019%6.75%0.82%0.33%00.16%1.01%
Rimonim 201510020n/a2023
Rimonim 2019271151208
Rimonim 2019%7.58%0.28%4.21%3.37%02.25%
Matityahu 2015201611n/a01
Matityahu 2019202770001
Matityahu 2019%5.92%81.95%0000.29%
Ma’ale Levona 20158711n/a05
Ma’ale Levona 20192235202
Ma’ale Levona 2019%6.57%0.90%1.49%0.60%00.59%
Nahliel 2015173100n/a02
Nahliel 201927300004
Nahliel 2019%10.47%11.63%0001.54%
Ateret 20153800n/a13
Ateret 20191312000
Ateret 2019%5.08%0.39%0.78%000
Amichai 2019700000
Amichai 2019%10.94%00000
Total 20154238646799n/a1019648
Total 201918431299448357302406
BinyaminZehut/YachadUTJKulanuGesherLabor/Zionist UnionOther
ShomronKosher VotesEligible VotesURP/Bayit YehudiLikudHaYamin HeHadashBlue & White/Yesh AtidZehut/Yachad
Sha’arei Tikva 201528423533814989n/a25383
Sha’arei Tikva 20193,0173,8682891069422566196
Sha’arei Tikva 2019%n/a78.15%9.58%35.43%13.99%18.76%6.50%
Tzofim 20159231104387272n/a5740
Tzofim 20191,1451,41717830626616183
Tzofim 2019%n/a80.88%15.55%26.72%23.23%14.06%7.25%
Alei Zahav 2015530657321140n/a1018
Alei Zahav 20191,1361,3453142134792943
Alei Zahav 2019%n/a84.54%27.64%18.75%42.17%2.55%3.79%
Etz Efraim 2015803955285280n/a4233
Etz Efraim 20191,0591,29820836219910178
Etz Efraim 2019%n/a81.66%19.64%34.18%18.79%9.54%7.37%
Yakir 2015824956532194n/a562
Yakir 20191,0401,1853662293431166
Yakir 2019%n/a88.19%35.19%22.02%32.98%1.06%6.35%
Barkan 20158961180179436n/a7111
Barkan 20199911,335284799014374
Barkan 2019%n/a74.53%2.83%48.34%9.08%14.43%7.47%
Revava 201571578754667n/a192
Revava 20199821,12263285179353
Revava 2019%n/a87.88%64.36%8.66%18.23%0.31%5.40%
Har Bracha 2015816953225476n/a197
Har Bracha 20199751,10128256369836
Har Bracha 2019%n/a88.65%28.92%57.74%7.08%0.82%3.69%
Peduel 201568478949784n/a290
Peduel 20198931,020532100207532
Peduel 2019%n/a87.65%59.57%11.20%23.18%0.56%3.58%
Avnei Hefetz 2015733854389147n/a0141
Avnei Hefetz 20198551,05943621090436
Avnei Hefetz 2019%n/a80.93%50.99%24.56%10.53%0.47%4.21%
Elon Moreh 201575190442979n/a4219
Elon Moreh 20197329165895839428
Elon Moreh 2019%n/a80.02%80.46%7.92%5.33%0.55%3.83%
Hinanit 201550262521982n/a825
Hinanit 2019595772220137681831
Hinanit 2019%n/a78.24%36.97%23.03%11.43%3.03%5.21%
Sal’it 20153174081149n/a780
Sal’it 20195797100562036913
Sal’it 2019%n/a81.55%09.67%3.45%63.73%2.25%
Yitzhar 2015448539908n/a1332
Yitzhar 20195366594631611131
Yitzhar 2019%n/a81.64%86.38%2.99%2.05%0.19%5.78%
Kfar Tapuach 201537149014697n/a0114
Kfar Tapuach 201948760224710662446
Kfar Tapuach 2019%n/a81.06%50.72%21.77%12.73%0.82%9.45%
Ma’ale Shomron 2015461567170170n/a1735
Ma’ale Shomron 2019469593641731023749
Ma’ale Shomron 2019%n/a79.26%13.65%36.89%21.75%7.89%10.45%
Itamar 201539848517835n/a0162
Itamar 20194495732884049152
Itamar 2019%n/a78.36%64.14%8.91%10.91%0.22%11.58%
Shavei Shomron 2015408520157106n/a2120
Shavei Shomron 201944454321510864923
Shavei Shomron 2019%n/a81.95%48.42%24.32%14.41%2.03%5.18%
Shaked 201539551682120n/a2711
Shaked 2019439594141535111731
Shaked 2019%n/a74.07%3.19%34.85%11.62%26.65%7.06%
Einav 201535742918265n/a466
Einav 20194144901749677117
Einav 2019%n/a84.49%42.03%23.19%18.60%0.24%4.11%
Bruchin 201519823015424n/a018
Bruchin 2019384427251328617
Bruchin 2019%n/a90.16%65.36%8.33%22.40%0.26%1.82%
Nofim 201530942581164n/a49
Nofim 201937649753175542132
Nofim 2019%n/a76.06%14.10%46.54%14.36%5.59%8.51%
Kiryat Netafim 201530635217488n/a318
Kiryat Netafim 20193444101009082252
Kiryat Netafim 2019%n/a84.15%29.07%26.16%23.84%0.58%15.12%
Rechelim 201519921314227n/a028
Rechelim 20192773031512383015
Rechelim 2019%n/a91.42%54.51%8.30%29.96%05.42%
Mevo Dotan 20151692653973n/a211
Mevo Dotan 2019192275457291233
Mevo Dotan 2019%n/a69.82%23.44%37.50%4.69%6.25%17.19%
Migdalim 2015931343426n/a46
Migdalim 20191732267315392113
Migdalim 2019%n/a76.55%42.20%8.67%22.54%12.14%7.51%
Reihan 2015991311820n/a110
Reihan 2019155192536125013
Reihan 2019%n/a80.73%3.23%23.23%7.74%32.26%8.39%
Hermesh 20151211811328n/a133
Hermesh 2019140204116111199
Hermesh 2019%n/a69.12%7.86%43.57%7.86%13.57%6.43%
Total 2015156681918264944346n/a6201844
Total 2019192782373662285063326317181192
ShomronKosher VotesEligible VotesURP/Bayit YehudiLikudHaYamin HeHadashBlue & White/Yesh AtidZehut/Yachad
ShomronKulanuShasGesherYisrael BeitenuLabor/Zionist UnionOther
Sha’arei Tikva 201522230n/a50288113
Sha’arei Tikva 201915464102297551
Sha’arei Tikva 2019%5.10%2.12%3.38%0.96%2.49%1.69%
Tzofim 2015569n/a125733
Tzofim 2019412418131441
Tzofim 2019%3.58%2.10%1.57%1.14%1.22%3.58%
Alei Zahav 2015146n/a1281
Alei Zahav 2019181312744
Alei Zahav 2019%1.58%1.14%1.06%0.62%0.35%0.35%
Etz Efraim 20154824n/a253828
Etz Efraim 201927311116917
Etz Efraim 2019%2.55%2.93%1.04%1.51%0.85%1.60%
Yakir 2015112n/a1512
Yakir 2019592045
Yakir 2019%0.48%0.87%0.19%00.38%0.48%
Barkan 2015611n/a356933
Barkan 201952641362517
Barkan 2019%5.25%0.61%4.14%3.63%2.52%1.70%
Revava 201502n/a106
Revava 20190200037
Revava 2019%02.04%000.31%0.69%
Har Bracha 201534n/a136
Har Bracha 20191101014
Har Bracha 2019%0.10%1.03%0.10%00.10%0.42%
Peduel 201526n/a003
Peduel 20191121012
Peduel 2019%0.11%1.34%0.11%00.11%0.24%
Avnei Hefetz 20151432n/a424
Avnei Hefetz 201946310110
Avnei Hefetz 2019%0.47%7.37%0.12%00.12%1.16%
Elon Moreh 201545n/a128
Elon Moreh 2019271004
Elon Moreh 2019%0.27%0.96%0.14%000.54%
Hinanit 2015204n/a129123
Hinanit 201971058847
Hinanit 2019%1.18%1.68%0.84%14.79%0.67%1.17%
Sal’it 201570n/a114823
Sal’it 20191011716725
Sal’it 2019%1.73%0.17%2.94%0.17%11.57%4.32%
Yitzhar 201513n/a0013
Yitzhar 20192100011
Yitzhar 2019%0.37%0.19%0002.05%
Kfar Tapuach 2015011n/a012
Kfar Tapuach 20191140205
Kfar Tapuach 2019%0.21%2.87%00.41%01.02%
Ma’ale Shomron 20152013n/a111312
Ma’ale Shomron 2019798947
Ma’ale Shomron 2019%1.49%1.92%1.71%1.92%0.85%1.48%
Itamar 201504n/a1216
Itamar 20190101008
Itamar 2019%02.23%0.22%001.79%
Shavei Shomron 201534n/a6010
Shavei Shomron 20196126010
Shavei Shomron 2019%1.35%0.23%0.45%1.35%02.26%
Shaked 2015557n/a22656
Shaked 2019242261092
Shaked 2019%5.47%0.46%5.92%2.28%2.05%0.45%
Einav 2015132n/a115
Einav 201933221110
Einav 2019%0.72%7.73%0.48%0.24%0.24%2.42%
Bruchin 201510n/a001
Bruchin 2019150001
Bruchin 2019%0.26%1.30%0000.27%
Nofim 2015105n/a18711
Nofim 20198651327
Nofim 2019%2.13%1.60%1.33%3.46%0.53%1.85%
Kiryat Netafim 2015114n/a314
Kiryat Netafim 2019472005
Kiryat Netafim 2019%1.16%2.03%0.58%001.46%
Rechelim 201510n/a001
Rechelim 2019112001
Rechelim 2019%0.36%0.36%0.72%000.37%
Mevo Dotan 201581n/a14147
Mevo Dotan 2019516711
Mevo Dotan 2019%2.60%0.52%3.13%3.65%0.52%0.51%
Migdalim 201530n/a7211
Migdalim 2019603111
Migdalim 2019%3.47%01.73%0.58%0.58%0.58%
Reihan 201580n/a02913
Reihan 20195083176
Reihan 2019%3.23%05.16%1.94%10.97%3.85%
Hermesh 2015151n/a29145
Hermesh 20195021147
Hermesh 2019%3.57%01.43%7.86%2.86%4.99%
Total 2015599210n/a384781390
Total 2019400359279253247276
2015%3.80%1.30%n/a2.50%5.00%2.50%
ShomronKulanuShasGesherYisrael BeitenuLabor/Zionist UnionOther
Gush EtzionKosher VotesEligible VotesHaYamin HeHadashURP/Bayit YehudiLikudZehut/YachadBlue & White/Yesh Atid
Alon Shvut 201516592009n/a106939810214
Alon Shvut 20191,7352,16964855826910152
Alon Shvut 2019%n/a80.22%37.35%32.16%15.50%5.82%3.00%
Tekoa 201514571797n/a71744512219
Tekoa 20191,6172,06756325734524958
Tekoa 2019%n/a78.37%34.82%15.89%21.34%15.40%3.59%
Neve Daniel 201510891341n/a691272705
Neve Daniel 20191,1821,52546833320710912
Neve Daniel 2019%n/a77.57%39.59%28.17%17.51%9.22%1.02%
Elazar 201511071309n/a6882916013
Elazar 20191,1711,4514423482345336
Elazar 2019%n/a80.77%37.75%29.72%19.98%4.53%3.07%
Nokdim 2015756922n/a296213705
Nokdim 20198751,13721616422810029
Nokdim 2019%n/a76.96%24.69%18.74%26.06%11.43%3.31%
Har Gilo 2015691864n/a932831656
Har Gilo 2019765973412132445163
Har Gilo 2019%n/a78.73%5.36%2.75%42.35%5.88%21.31%
Kedar 2015656822n/a883731440
Kedar 201970595425114325588
Kedar 2019%n/a74.11%3.55%1.56%61.28%7.80%12.48%
Bat Ayin 2015524703n/a185742124
Bat Ayin 201965085188245921784
Bat Ayin 2019%n/a76.38%13.54%37.69%14.15%27.38%0.62%
Carmeo Tzur 2015475529n/a30671860
Carmeo Tzur 20194495389723679121
Carmeo Tzur 2019%n/a83.64%21.60%52.56%17.59%2.67%0.22%
Rosh Tzurim 2015411461n/a3156294
Rosh Tzurim 20194264842419751179
Rosh Tzurim 2019%n/a88.22%56.57%22.77%11.97%3.99%2.11%
Kfar Etzion 2015337421n/a21169119
Kfar Etzion 201935746415566602120
Kfar Etzion 2019%n/a77.16%43.42%18.49%16.81%5.88%5.60%
Metzad 2015185248n/a526400
Metzad 201925534444497180
Metzad 2019%n/a76.16%17.25%19.22%2.75%7.06%0
Ma’ale Amos 2015158230n/a308320
Ma’ale Amos 2019242320304914132
Ma’ale Amos 2019%n/a75.94%12.40%20.25%5.79%5.37%0.83%
Migdal Oz 2015173240n/a1263161
Migdal Oz 2019173250754435102
Migdal Oz 2019%n/a69.20%43.35%25.43%20.23%5.78%1.16%
Total 2015967811896n/a48672596850170
Total 20191060213527313324782377981476
Gush EtzionKosher VotesEligible VotesHaYamin HeHadashURP/Bayit YehudiLikudZehut/YachadBlue & White/Yesh Atid
Gush EtzionUTJShasKulanuGesherYisrael BeitenuLabor/Zionist UnionOther
Alon Shvut 201510n/a25n/a32117
Alon Shvut 2019149202232325
Alon Shvut 2019%0.81%n/a1.15%1.27%0.17%1.33%1.44%
Tekoa 201514n/a28n/a421852
Tekoa 201919172022371532
Tekoa 2019%1.18%n/a1.24%1.36%2.29%0.93%1.96%
Neve Daniel 20154n/a18n/a21116
Neve Daniel 20191251414229
Neve Daniel 2019%1.02%n/a1.18%1.18%0.17%0.17%0.77%
Elazar 20153n/a16n/a31122
Elazar 2019710101111118
Elazar 2019%0.60%n/a0.85%0.94%0.09%0.94%1.53%
Nokdim 20159n/a13n/a1191219
Nokdim 2019111481281917
Nokdim 2019%1.26%n/a0.91%1.37%9.26%1.03%1.94%
Har Gilo 20152n/a79n/a138663
Har Gilo 20191332928184253
Har Gilo 2019%0.13%n/a3.79%3.66%2.35%5.49%6.93%
Kedar 20153n/a48n/a73845
Kedar 201911738215821
Kedar 2019%0.14%n/a5.39%2.98%0.71%1.13%2.98%
Bat Ayin 20159n/a3n/a0235
Bat Ayin 20191719100025
Bat Ayin 2019%2.62%n/a0.15%0003.85%
Carmeo Tzur 20154n/a1n/a007
Carmeo Tzur 20197834109
Carmeo Tzur 2019%1.56%n/a0.67%0.89%0.22%02.02%
Rosh Tzurim 20151n/a10n/a136
Rosh Tzurim 20190n/a74000
Rosh Tzurim 2019%001.64%0.94%000
Kfar Etzion 20150n/a16n/a1128
Kfar Etzion 2019001011185
Kfar Etzion 2019%0.00%n/a2.80%3.08%0.28%2.24%1.40%
Metzad 201569n/a0n/a2016
Metzad 201911423000023
Metzad 2019%44.71%n/a00009.10%
Ma’ale Amos 201571n/a0n/a1016
Ma’ale Amos 201911913001014
Ma’ale Amos 2019%49.17%n/a000.41%05.78%
Migdal Oz 20150n/a2n/a124
Migdal Oz 20191132001
Migdal Oz 2019%0.58%n/a1.73%1.16%000.58%
Total 2015199n/a259n/a195216326
Total 2019323169163151150118252
Gush EtzionUTJShasKulanuGesherYisrael BeitenuLabor/Zionist UnionOther
Har HevronKosher VotesEligible VotesURP/Bayit YehudiHaYamin HeHadashLikudBlue & White/Yesh AtidZehut/Yachad
Susya 2015426525318n/a35067
Susya 201954666026315262549
Susya 2019%n/a83.03%48.17%27.84%11.36%0.92%8.97%
Teneh 2015362474116n/a793838
Teneh 20193824999755806526
Teneh 2019%n/a76.95%25.39%14.40%20.94%17.02%6.81%
Otniel 2015335391228n/a33165
Otniel 201937045016010347348
Otniel 2019%n/a82.22%43.24%27.84%12.70%0.81%12.97%
Shani 201522032630n/a73204
Shani 20193364586215927126
Shani 2019%n/a74.02%18.45%4.46%27.38%21.13%7.74%
Shim’a 201521130471n/a621122
Shim’a 201931942511732901822
Shim’a 2019%n/a75.29%36.68%10.03%28.21%5.64%6.90%
Eshkolot 201516521225n/a54345
Eshkolot 20192703471723948214
Eshkolot 2019%n/a78.10%6.30%8.52%34.81%30.37%5.19%
Beit Hagai 2015225256126n/a34064
Beit Hagai 2019268324181473602
Beit Hagai 2019%n/a83.33%67.54%17.54%13.43%00.75%
Beit Yatir 2015249285168n/a27037
Beit Yatir 20192533081416814518
Beit Yatir 2019%n/a82.14%55.73%26.88%5.53%1.98%7.11%
Ma’on 2015204259141n/a11050
Ma’on 20192372961684010117
Ma’on 2019%n/a80.07%70.89%16.88%4.22%0.42%7.17%
Carmel 2015214263146n/a2020
Carmel 2019227264130413849
Carmel 2019%n/a85.98%57.27%18.06%16.74%1.76%3.96%
Adora 201517622057n/a391018
Adora 20191952455617533220
Adora 2019%n/a79.59%28.72%8.72%27.18%16.41%10.26%
Telem 201510013433n/a20030
Telem 2019194210842844912
Telem 2019%n/a92.86%43.30%14.43%22.68%4.64%6.19%
Sansana 2015145163110n/a2219
Sansana 201918620455972162
Sansana 2019%n/a91.18%29.57%52.15%11.29%3.23%1.08%
Ma’ale Hever 201516619252n/a20090
Ma’ale Hever 201917921313782034
Ma’ale Hever 2019%n/a84.98%76.54%4.47%11.17%1.68%2.23%
Negohot 2015828759n/a7015
Negohot 2019125137643511014
Negohot 2019%n/a91.24%51.20%28.00%8.80%011.20%
Total 2015328037651680n/a536117514
Total 2019408750401732761712304283
Har HevronKosher VotesEligible VotesURP/Bayit YehudiHaYamin HeHadashLikudBlue & White/Yesh AtidZehut/Yachad
Har HevronKulanuGesherYisrael BeitenuLabor/Zionist UnionOther
Susya 20152n/a004
Susya 201932208
Susya 2019%0.55%0.37%0.37%01.45%
Teneh 201527n/a15418
Teneh 20192215679
Teneh 2019%5.76%3.93%1.57%1.83%2.35%
Otniel 20155n/a003
Otniel 201940005
Otniel 2019%1.08%0001.36%
Shani 201521n/a272322
Shani 2019141325612
Shani 2019%4.17%3.87%7.44%1.79%3.57%
Shim’a 201514n/a71410
Shim’a 2019811678
Shim’a 2019%2.51%3.45%1.88%2.19%2.51%
Eshkolot 201514n/a3246
Eshkolot 2019126598
Eshkolot 2019%4.44%2.22%1.85%3.33%2.97%
Beit Hagai 20150n/a001
Beit Hagai 201900002
Beit Hagai 2019%00000.74%
Beit Yatir 20155n/a048
Beit Yatir 201911005
Beit Yatir 2019%0.40%0.40%001.97%
Ma’on 20150n/a002
Ma’on 201901000
Ma’on 2019%00.42%000
Carmel 20150n/a1045
Carmel 201911012
Carmel 2019%0.44%0.44%00.44%0.89%
Adora 201519n/a3246
Adora 201914345
Adora 2019%0.51%2.05%1.54%2.05%2.56%
Telem 20153n/a284
Telem 2019401012
Telem 2019%2.06%00.52%06.18%
Sansana 20152n/a001
Sansana 201931010
Sansana 2019%1.61%0.54%00.54%0
Ma’ale Hever 20150n/a013
Ma’ale Hever 201900034
Ma’ale Hever 2019%01.68%2.23%
Negohot 20151n/a000
Negohot 201900001
Negohot 2019%00000.80%
Total 2015113n/a58139123
Total 20197355483881
Har HevronKulanuGesherYisrael BeitenuLabor/Zionist UnionOther
Jor. ValleyKosher VotesEligible VotesLikudBlue & White/Yesh AtidURP/Bayit YehudiHaYamin HeHadashZehut/Yachad
Mehola 2015322394606185n/a43
Mehola 2019415484581316710736
Mehola 2019%n/a85.74%13.98%3.13%40.24%25.78%8.67%
Shadmot Mehola 2015263321260198n/a30
Shadmot Mehola 20193263803221729022
Shadmot Mehola 2019%n/a85.79%9.82%0.61%52.76%27.61%6.75%
Tomer 2015176243493429n/a0
Tomer 2019208252429421415
Tomer 2019%n/a82.94%20.19%45.19%0.96%6.73%7.21%
Petza’el 2015176225582538n/a0
Petza’el 2019195230725932513
Petza’el 2019%n/a84.78%36.92%30.26%1.54%12.82%6.67%
Gitit 201515018736261n/a19
Gitit 2019192241392663467
Gitit 2019%n/a79.67%20.31%13.54%32.81%23.96%3.65%
Yitav 201513716811049n/a15
Yitav 201916420458663429
Yitav 2019%n/a80.39%35.37%3.66%38.41%2.44%17.68%
Beka’ot 2015115142452110n/a0
Beka’ot 20191131364039082
Beka’ot 2019%n/a83.09%35.40%34.51%07.08%1.77%
Yafit 20158213526617n/a2
Yafit 20191071585413984
Yafit 2019%n/a67.72%50.47%12.15%8.41%7.48%3.74%
Netiv HaGdud 2015105149251211n/a3
Netiv HaGdud 20191071543647165
Netiv HaGdud 2019%n/a69.48%33.64%43.93%0.93%5.61%4.67%
Masua 201596132391125n/a0
Masua 2019101150362102210
Masua 2019%n/a67.33%35.64%20.79%021.78%9.90%
Hemdat 201910011418033424
Hemdat 2019%n/a87.72%18.00%033.00%42.00%4.00%
Ro’I 2015154190331954n/a2
Ro’I 2019991292944101
Ro’I 2019%n/a76.74%29.29%44.44%1.01%01.01%
Neama 2015771262296n/a1
Neama 2019981382439159
Neama 2019%n/a71.01%24.49%39.80%1.02%5.10%9.18%
Hamra 20159313233710n/a4
Hamra 20199713533253114
Hamra 2019%n/a71.85%34.02%25.77%3.09%11.34%4.12%
Mekhora 201581115221012n/a0
Mekhora 2019921333035283
Mekhora 2019%n/a69.92%32.61%38.04%2.17%8.70%3.26%
Gilgal 201582132212215n/a0
Gilgal 2019861472628326
Gilgal 2019%n/a58.50%30.23%32.56%3.49%2.33%6.98%
Argaman 20158713034912n/a2
Argaman 2019831283224047
Argaman 2019%n/a64.84%38.55%28.92%04.82%8.43%
Niran 20155572030n/a0
Niran 20195772021000
Niran 2019%n/a79.17%036.84%000
Total 201522512993540196732n/a121
Total 201926403385659536523402177
Jor. ValleyKosher VotesEligible VotesLikudBlue & White/Yesh AtidURP/Bayit YehudiHaYamin HeHadashZehut/Yachad
Jor. ValleyGesherLabor/Zionist UnionKulanuOther
Mehola 2015n/a13213
Mehola 201918169
Mehola 2019%4.34%0.24%1.45%2.17%
Shadmot Mehola 2015n/a117
Shadmot Mehola 20193023
Shadmot Mehola 2019%0.92%00.61%0.92%
Tomer 2015n/a351811
Tomer 2019151583
Tomer 2019%7.21%7.21%3.85%1.45%
Petza’el 2015n/a36145
Petza’el 20198942
Petza’el 2019%4.10%4.62%2.05%1.02%
Gitit 2015n/a16106
Gitit 20196410
Gitit 2019%3.13%2.08%0.52%0.00%
Yitav 2015n/a0458
Yitav 20191003
Yitav 2019%0.61%001.83%
Beka’ot 2015n/a2487
Beka’ot 201918213
Beka’ot 2019%15.93%1.77%0.88%2.66%
Yafit 2015n/a13108
Yafit 20196166
Yafit 2019%5.61%1.87%5.61%4.66%
Netiv HaGdud 2015n/a301410
Netiv HaGdud 20194125
Netiv HaGdud 2019%3.74%0.93%1.87%4.68%
Masua 2015n/a867
Masua 20196330
Masua 2019%5.94%2.97%2.97%0.00%
Hemdat 20190003
Hemdat 2019%0003.00%
Ro’I 2015n/a3178
Ro’I 201913335
Ro’I 2019%13.13%3.03%3.03%5.06%
Neama 2015n/a2586
Neama 201910262
Neama 2019%10.20%2.04%6.12%2.05%
Hamra 2015n/a24105
Hamra 201911523
Hamra 2019%11.34%5.15%2.06%3.11%
Mekhora 2015n/a20125
Mekhora 201921020
Mekhora 2019%2.17%10.87%2.17%0
Gilgal 2015n/a1761
Gilgal 20195727
Gilgal 2019%5.81%8.14%2.33%8.13%
Argaman 2015n/a13710
Argaman 20198107
Argaman 2019%9.64%1.20%08.44%
Niran 2015n/a4705
Niran 201913104
Niran 2019%1.75%54.39%07.02%
Total 2015n/a353137172
Total 2019135954865
Jor. ValleyGesherLabor/Zionist UnionKulanuOther
MegilotKosher VotesEligible VotesBlue & White/Yesh AtidLikudLabor/Zionist UnionHaYamin HeHadashGesher
Kalya 2015254330493572n/an/a
Kalya 201927937210445193327
Kalya 2019%n/a75.00%37.28%16.13%6.81%11.83%9.68%
Vered Yeriho 2015135173125322n/an/a
Vered Yeriho 2019176226447441511
Vered Yeriho 2019%n/a78.32%25.00%42.05%2.27%8.52%6.25%
Almog 2015104145161353n/an/a
Almog 201913619457162859
Almog 2019%n/a70.10%41.91%11.76%20.59%3.68%6.62%
Mitzpe Shalem 201511015112861n/an/a
Mitzpe Shalem 20191251736582338
Mitzpe Shalem 2019%n/a72.25%52.00%6.40%18.40%2.40%6.40%
Beit HaArava 2015516221213n/an/a
Beit HaArava 2019126145233541711
Beit HaArava 2019%n/a86.90%18.25%27.78%3.17%13.49%8.73%
Total 201565486191121221n/an/a
Total 20198421110293178787366
MegilotKosher VotesEligible VotesBlue & White/Yesh AtidLikudLabor/Zionist UnionHaYamin HeHadashGesher
MegilotZehut/YachadKulanuMeretzURP/Bayit YehudiOther
Kalya 2015n/a2974715
Kalya 201919114107
Kalya 2019%6.81%3.94%1.43%3.58%2.51%
Vered Yeriho 2015n/a151239
Vered Yeriho 2019116245
Vered Yeriho 2019%6.25%3.41%1.14%2.27%2.84%
Almog 2015n/a9652
Almog 2019131421
Almog 2019%9.56%0.74%2.94%1.47%0.73%
Mitzpe Shalem 2015n/a9956
Mitzpe Shalem 2019231003
Mitzpe Shalem 2019%1.60%2.40%8.00%02.40%
Beit HaArava 2015n/a6189
Beit HaArava 20191810134
Beit HaArava 2019%14.29%7.94%0.79%2.38%2.38%
Total 2015n/a68248841
Total 20196331211919
MegilotZehut/YachadKulanuMeretzURP/Bayit YehudiOther
AreaKosher VotesEligible VotesURP/Bayit YehudiHaYamin HeHadashZehut/YachadLikudBlue & White/Yesh Atid
Not Area-C 2015231271900114162
Not Area-C 20192262851572121176
Not Area-C 2019%n/a79.30%69.47%9.29%9.29%7.52%2.65%
AreaKulanuShasYisrael BeitenuMeretzOther
Not Area-C 201551003
Not Area-C 201911110
Not Area-C 2019%0.44%0.44%0.44%0.44%0.00%

These are the official certified results that were handed today to President Rivlin by Central Election Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer. The most significant change between the interim results that were released Thursday night and the official results today is that UTJ gained a seat at the expense of Likud.

President Rivlin, who has already completed his Phase 2 consultations, announced that later today he will officially ask Prime Minister Netanyahu to form the next government.

PartyLeader/sVotesVote PercentageKnesset SeatsOutgoing seats
Likud (Netanyahu)1,140,37026.46%35[29] 
Blue & White(Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)1,125,88126.13%35[11] 
Shas (Deri)258,2755.99%8[07] 
United Torah Judaism (Litzman)249,0495.78%8[06] 
Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)193,4424.49%6[05] 
Labor (Gabbai)190,8704.43%6[18]
Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)173,0044.01%5[05] 
United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)159,4683.70%5[05] 
Meretz (Zandberg)156,4733.63%4[05] 
Kulanu (Kahlon)152,7563.54%4[10] 
Raam-Balad (Abbas)143,6663.33%4[08] 
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)138,5983.22%0[03] 
Zehut (Feiglin)118,0312.74%0[–-] 
Gesher (Orly Levy)74,7011.73%0[01] 
All other parties Oren Hazan, Gal Hirsch & Others34,6860.82%0[01] 
Blocs
Current Right-Religious BlocNetanyahu2,132,92249.48%65[66] 
Current Center-Left-Arab BlocGantz1,810,33242.01%55[54] 
Missed Thresholdn/a366,0168.51%0n/a

Notes: 4,340,253 of the 6,339,729 eligible voters cast their vote for the 21st Knesset for a turnout rate of 68.46%. 30,983 votes were disqualified. The electoral threshold of 3.25% was 140,051 votes.

Raam-Balad made the threshold by 3,614 votes. HaYamin HeHadash missed the threshold by 1,453 votes. Zehut missed the threshold by 22,020 votes. Gesher missed the threshold by 65,350 votes.