This post includes three tables. The election results, the exit poll averages and the accuracy of the exit polls.
The final results including the double envelopes/absentee ballots are expected either tomorrow night or Friday morning. The results must be certified eight days after the election – September 25th.
President Rivlin can ask Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer permission to start the Phase 2 consultations before the Phase 1 results are certified. It is at Meltzer’s discretion to agree or not. In the April election Meltzer allowed Rivlin to carry out his consultations before the results were certified.
Table 1: Final Results before Double Envelopes (Absentee Voting)
| Party | Leader | Seats | Percentage | Votes |
| Blue & White | Gantz | 33 | 25.66% | 1,035,624 |
| Likud | Netanyahu | 32 | 25.03% | 1,010,237 |
| Joint List | Odeh | 12 | 10.72% | 432,741 |
| Shas | Deri | 9 | 7.57% | 305,712 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | Lieberman | 8 | 7.12% | 287,305 |
| UTJ | Litzmna | 8 | 6.23% | 251,645 |
| Yamina | Shaked | 7 | 5.72% | 230,907 |
| Labor | Peretz | 6 | 4.81% | 194,211 |
| Democratic Union | Horowitz | 5 | 4.30% | 173,374 |
| Under the 3.25% Electoral Threshold (Under 6K not listed) | ||||
| Otzma | Ben Gvir | 0 | 1.87% | 75,301 |
| Tzomet | Green | 0 | 0.34% | 13,622 |
Table 2: Each Exit Poll & Exit Poll AVG
| Party | Exit Poll AVG | Channel 11 | Channel 13 | Channel 12 |
| Blue & White | 33 | 32 | 33 | 34 |
| Likud | 32 | 32 | 31 | 33 |
| Joint List | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| Shas | 8.7 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 8.7 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| UTJ | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Yamina | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| Labor | 5.3 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Democratic Union | 5.3 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Table 3: Accuracy of Exit Poll AVG
| Party | Exit Poll AVG | Current Results | Difference |
| Blue & White | 33 | 33 | 0 |
| Likud | 32 | 32 | 0 |
| Joint List | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Shas | 8.7 | 9 | -0.3 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 8.7 | 8 | -0.7 |
| UTJ | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Yamina | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Labor | 5.3 | 6 | -0.7 |
| Democratic Union | 5.3 | 5 | -0.07 |
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Lieberman won’t join govt with Arab List, leaves Gantz short either way. Likud won’t join unity govt without Netanyahu. Gantz won’t sit with Netanyahu (he says).
Netanyahu can’t form govt without Shas and Lieberman, Shas won’t sit with Lieberman and vice versa.
Third round of elections?
Tell Liberman to swallow his pride, take great concessions, and the draft law will remain until next time.
You could have a minority government. We have those in Canada often enough.
According to the minority government description in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minority_governments_in_Canada , Israel has always had “minority governments”, as no party has ever had 61 seats alone. They always depend on a coalition.
The problem now is that coalitions with 61+ votes are getting harder and harder to make.
Mark – Canadian minority governments generally aren’t coalitions either though. They govern on a case-by-case basis.
Your model predicted 38 seats for Likud. Where do you think you went wrong?
I’ll discuss it in a post after the final results are in.
I had predicted a margin of error of 3 seats and instead I ended up with a margin of error of 2 seats with the only exception being Likud.
Jeremy, will you be discussing the reasons for your wildly off base prediction of the results? I am a big fan of the site, but it seems like you predicted with your heart rather than your head…
I’ll discuss it in a post after the final results are in.
I had predicted a margin of error of 3 seats and instead I ended up with a margin of error of 2 seats with the only exception being Likud.
That’s true for individual party results. But summing up the individual party errors, the coalition algebra became wildly different…
I’ll look forward to reading that! We don’t see eye to eye politically but I really appreciate your work with this site. It’s indispensable during election season in Israel
Kudos to Cammil Fuchs. It looks like he had the most accurate model two elections in a row!
I don’t see any road at all to a Gantz-led coalition. He just does not have the votes, even with Lieberman. And, as Izzy noted, even if the Joint List joined (an unlikely scenario), Lieberman could not sit with them — his base would be enraged. While last time around, Bibi might have been able to put together a coalition with Lieberman (if there were additional compromises by UTJ and Shas), Lieberman won’t join a Bibi-led government now. I think Netanyahu’s best bet would be to try to peel off the more right wing B&W people, like Zvi Hauser and Ya’alon — enough to get to 61.
I am not sure what a third election would accomplish. Perhaps Otzma would finally get out, but even if all of their votes went to Yamina, the right would not get 61 seats.
Maybe the threshold needs to be raised to 5%? Or perhaps Israel should institute a British-type system, whereby each Knesset member represents a specific district and it’s “first past the post.” There would likely be fewer parties and, ultimately, a clearer winner.
Do you really want to replace government by the majority with government by the minority, and not necessarily even the largest majority? That’s what first past the post gives.
If you want to shrink the number of parties just adopt small multimember districts like Ireland.
Most (english language) newspapers do not present the blocs in a usefull way. They usually just add up Likud-Yemina-Haredim against all other parties except Liberman. But it is clear to anyone that Liberman is closer to Gantz than Tibi !
I think the actual blocs are :
i) Right / center-left dichotomy :
Likud-Yemina-Haredim-Liberman
Gantz-Avoda-Meretz-Arabs
–> right = 63
ii) Ideology :
[Secular center-right bloc] Likud-Gantz-Liberman
[religious bloc] Haredim-Yemina
[Secular leftist bloc] Avoda-Meretz-Hadash
(and other arab parties alone)
–> secular center-right = 72
iii) Government approval :
[Bibi bloc] Likud-Yamina-Haredim
[anti Bibi bloc]Gantz-Avoda-Meretz-Liberman-Arabs
–> anti-bibi = 65
It is easy to see what Israelis want. A secular, right-wing government without Netanyahu. So talks about including arab, left wing parties and even haredim (altough Shas did very well) will be interpreted by the public as “stealing the elections”.
I Believe Jeremy has his finger on the pulse of the Israeli Electorate. By far the absolute best authority on the issue. His postings and my private surveys moved toe to toe-his were slightly more accurate. I had Likud at 42 at one point, Likud lost votes fast as Bibi became reckless, when Jeremy posted 38 for Likud, I had 39, on the eve of the elections, I had 34.
All along I had Yamina at 7, UTJ at 8, Shas was always at 9 or more. I am on the record to support me saying that.
These are Private Surveys, they are not polls- They are not subject to Legal Constraints. I say “my surveys” to take legal responsibility, and absolve others.
As Bibi became reckless on National Security, and brought Israel to the brink. of war on multiple fronts, the electorate had second thoughts. And as he incited against Arabs, not only he drove them to the polls, but he also lost the substantial Likud Arab Vote. My surveys reflected that- step by step, day by day.
I slept good at night knowing Bibi is at the helm in Israel, for a long long time. I sang his praises for having his instincts in touch with The Israeli Populace. His Stature, Statesmanship, and Style. I became nervous as the elections drew close. I still believe Bibi is the man of the hour, but an adjustment is in order. A reversion to the Real Bibi.
I believe you are right. There is no other choice for Israel at this point. Maybe Netanyahu should start grooming a successor, for he is aging, but at this time he must continue.
Finally, Just like the “Grapes of Wrath” did Shimon Perez in, in 1996 and brought Bibi to power, it is Bibi’s own “grapes of Wrath” as of late, that shook his hold on power. The good news is that it did not knock him off, and it is not too late. If there will be a Third election: Bibi, please adjust. The Israeli Public wants Security with ” Peace Through Strength” Not War, nor the threat of it. And The Israeli Arab Electorate Percentage will increase with time. Menachim Begin understood the Israeli Arabs Best- They love him, they can love you.
I just want to add one point before I file these last elections away. Bibi’s incitement against Israeli Arabs cost him the Arab Likud Vote, Drove Israeli Arabs to the polls- as I said earlier. But the real damage was in the loss of Jewish Likud Votes who voted for other parties because of it.
Just necessary feedback in a low key entry away from the spotlight. I promise I will never talk about these elections again. In All Fairness to Bibi “Hind Sight is 20/20.
Thank You Jeremy once more for providing the Platform.
Did Bibi actually get fewer Arab votes than last time? I haven’t seen that.