Tag Archive: knesset israel


Panels conducted a poll of 555 people with an error rate of 4.3% that was published by Maariv & The Jerusalem Post on July 21 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [30] Likud
22 [11] Yesh Atid
19 [24] Zionist Union
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [07] Shas
05 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [05] Meretz
00 [–-] Yaalon, Yachad, Zehut (as other)

63 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
57 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Do you think Netanyahu is a corrupt man?

48% Yes, 38% No, 14% Don’t know

Likud voters: 80% No, 12% Yes, 8% Don’t know

Do you believe Netanyahu’s version that he knew nothing of alleged corruption in connection to the government’s purchase of submarines from Germany?

55% No, 30% Yes, 15% Don’t know

Likud voters: 69% No, 20% Yes, 11% Don’t know

If Netanyahu is forced to resign, should Israel go to early elections?

53% Yes, 33% No, 14% Don’t know

Likud voters: 51% No, 35% Yes, 14% Don’t know
Right voters
: 47% No, 38% Yes, 15% Don’t know
Center Voters: 65% Yes
Left voters: 77% Yes

Does government’s agreement that Germany sell submarines to Egypt harm national security?

47% Yes, 30% Don’t know, 23% No

Likud voters: 43% Yes, 30% No, 27% Don’t know

Those who answered “yes“: Will this influence the way you vote in the next election?

49% Yes, 39% No, 12% Don’t know

Right voters: 45% Yes
Center voters: 34%  Yes
Left voters:  21% Yes

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

26% Netanyahu, 19% None, 14% Lapid, 12% Gabbai, 10% Don’t know, 8% Bennett, 8% Kahlon, 3% Liberman

The KnessetJeremyPollingAverage has been updated at this link: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

On May 14, 2015, the 34th Government of the State of Israel received the confidence of the Knesset by a razor thin margin of 61-59. In that vote the 24 Zionist Union MKs voted against the appointment of Environmental Protection Minister Avi Gabbay. Following his surprise upset victory in the Labor Party primary Gabbay will now lead the faction that led the vote against the launch of his political career.

Gabbay wasn’t elected to the 20th Knesset or to any previous Knesset. He is a rookie politician with little experience. His political experience can be summarized in one sentence: He worked on the Kulanu campaign and afterwards was appointed as a non-MK minister in Netanyahu’s government. Of the three portfolios that Kulanu received in 2015, he was given the least prestigious. Gabbay was one of the least known Israeli Ministers. He was left out of the great majority of public polling that measured Israel’s top ministers. There was only one public poll that measured the public opinion of all Israeli ministers. Panels conducted it for Maariv & The Jerusalem Post, and it was published on March 18, 2016. It measured the grade of each one of the 19 ministers at the time on a scale from 1 to 10 in terms of how well they did their job. Gabbay finished in the middle with a tie for 9th place and a 4.9 rating.

Many people only learned who Gabbay was when he resigned as minister on May 27, 2016, in protest of Yisrael Beitenu entering the coalition. Gabbay joined the Labor Party in late December, and less than six months later has just been elected to lead it. Gabbay defeated the entire establishment and party machine of the old guard. Gabbay closed the gap of a 1,746 vote deficit with the favorite, Amir Peretz, and defeated him by 1,346 votes. Of the 52,505 eligible primary voters, 30,998 voted in the first round and that number did not drop off in the second round with 30,916. Peretz only improved from 10,141 votes in the first round to 14,734 in the second round. Gabbay almost doubled his numbers from 8,395 votes in the first round to 16,080 votes in the second round.

Now the real questions start. Does Gabbay use his reserved slot in the next election to add his friend Moshe Yaalon, who opposes a two state solution, to the party? Can Gabbay maintain the existing alliance with Livni? Will Gabbay be able to successfully sabotage possible break-off attempts by various MKs? Will Herzog agree to stay on as Opposition Leader for the entire term or will he eventually leave over a future disagreement? If Herzog is removed as Opposition Leader, who replaces him? Will Gabbay be able to work together with Peretz? Despite the bad blood between them, would Kahlon agree to join a future Gabbay coalition? Would Lapid? Are this week’s favorable snap-poll results a sign of things to come or just a temporary artificial fluke? How will Gabbay manage to do all of that with such little political experience? Those questions will take time to answer.

We can start by exploring one question that we might be able to answer: How did Gabbay win?

Democratic primaries are a beautiful thing. It is a real pity that only three of the ten Knesset lists choose their leaders through primaries. Democratic primaries are the only system where each party member has an equal say in choosing their leadership and the direction of their party. It is also an unpredictable system where the entire leadership of a party can find themselves overthrown overnight. That is the reasoning of why seven of the ten Knesset lists object to the democratic primary system. The seasoned and experienced veteran can lose to the naïve and idealistic newcomer.

Amir Peretz is the most senior member of the Israeli Knesset, first elected to the Knesset in 1988. He emerged as the first round winner. For the second round Peretz picked up the endorsements of the first round’s third and fourth place finishers. Overall MK Peretz received endorsements from 10 MKs: Isaac Herzog, Erel Margalit, Merav Michaeli, Itzik Shmuli, Hilik Bar, Nachman Shai, Manuel Trajtenberg, Revital Swid, Eitan Broshi and Ayelet Nahmias-Verbin. Additionally, Peretz had the endorsements of Histadrut Chairman Avi Nissenkorn, Jewish National Fund Danny Atar and many other external interest groups. He was clearly the consensus establishment candidate.

Omer Barlev, who finished in fifth place in the first round, decided not to endorse either candidate. Tzipi Livni and her MKs Eyal Ben Reuven, Ksenia Svetlova, Yael Cohen Paran and Yoel Hasson did not endorse either.

Gabbay finished the first round with the backing of former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, a candidate who withdrew (Aviram Levin) and two MKs Michal Biran and Yossi Yonah. He picked up five MKs’ endorsements for the second round: Shelly Yachimovich, Eitan Cabel, Stav Shafir, Micky Rosenthal and Zouheir Bahloul.

Gabbay pulled out a victory despite not receiving the support of more than two thirds of the Zionist Union Faction MKs and failing to receive the endorsements of the failed first round candidates. How did Gabbay leapfrog over Peretz? Was it really his last-minute endorsements? His highest profile allies Shelly Yachimovich, Eitan Cabel and Stav Shafir spent a large portion of Election Day in the Knesset and not on the campaign trail. Was it an anti-Peretz sentiment? Most people thought Peretz was going to win.

Perhaps the answer is that Labor voters decided not to be disciplined and instead of falling in line voted against the Zionist Union that they had chosen 28 months beforehand. Perhaps the Labor voters were happy to vote for an outsider that is not responsible for the past, is perceived as a centrist, and had a mediocre 4.9 rating out of 10. Perhaps the Labor voter wanted to send a message to the entire establishment and machine that the vote was actually against them, even if that means that the vote was for someone who until recently served as a minister in the Netanyahu government they want to replace.

Perhaps the Labor party members are done with the old Labor Party that no longer represented them and that is why they voted for a new Labor Party.

 
The “KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls” is currently averaging the seven most recent polls from July 2017: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Poll #1

Panels conducted a poll of 517 people with an error rate of 4.3% that was broadcast by Walla News on July 12 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [30] Likud
21 [11] Yesh Atid
19 [24] Zionist Union
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [10] Kulanu
06 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
00 [–-] Yaalon, Yachad, Zehut (as other)

63 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
57 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Most suited for Prime Minister?

35% Netanyahu, 16% Don’t know, 16% Gabbay, 16% Lapid, 7% Bennett, 7% Kahlon, 3% Liberman

 

Poll #2

Geocartography conducted a poll that was broadcast by Kol Brama on July 12 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud
21 [11] Yesh Atid
19 [24] Zionist Union
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
09 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [10] Kulanu
05 [05] Meretz
04 [07] Shas
04 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
00 [–-] Yaalon, Yachad, Zehut (as other)

64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

The KnessetJeremyPollingAverage has been updated at this link: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Poll #1

Panel HaMidgam Project conducted a poll of 727 people (including 121 Arabs) that was broadcast by Channel 10 on July 11 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud
24 [24] Zionist Union
16 [11] Yesh Atid
14 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
00 [–-] Yaalon, Yachad, Zehut (as other)

67 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
53 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Most suited for Prime Minister?

37% Netanyahu, 22% Don’t know, 14% Gabbay, 12% Lapid, 8% Bennett, 7% Liberman

One-on-one match-up for Prime Minister: Netanyahu or Gabbay?

51% Netanyahu, 25% Gabbay, 24% Don’t know

 

Poll #2

Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people with an error rate of 4.5% that was broadcast by Channel 2 on July 11 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [30] Likud
20 [24] Zionist Union
18 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
00 [–-] Yaalon, Yachad, Zehut (as other)

64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Most suited for Prime Minister?

35% Don’t know, 34% Netanyahu, 13% Gabbay, 12% Lapid, 6% Bennett

The Updated KnessetJeremyPollingAverage has now been updated at this link: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Midgam conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 2 on May 26 2017.
In addition they ran a scenario poll with Ehud Barak at the head of the Zionist Union.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud
22 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [24] Zionist Union
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [05] Meretz
00 [–] Yaalon Party

67 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
53 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Scenario Poll with former Prime Minister Ehud Barak leading the Zionist Union

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud
21 [11] Yesh Atid
15 [24] Zionist Union under Barak
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [05] Meretz
00 [–] Yaalon Party

66 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
54 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Of following candidates who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

35% Netanyahu, 27% Don’t know, 14% Lapid, 9% Barak, 6% Yaalon, 5% Bennett, 4% Herzog

Are you for a peace deal that is based on 2 states for 2 peoples along 67 borders while maintaining large settlement blocs?

47% Yes, 39% No, 14% Don’t know

Note #1: New look for “KnessetJeremy Polling Average” – The KJPA next to 2017 AVG, 2016 AVG, All Polls & 2015 Election results: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Geocartography conducted a poll that was published by News 1 on May 26 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [30] Likud
24 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [24] Zionist Union
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
09 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [05] Meretz
06 [10] Kulanu
04 [07] Shas

64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Note #1: 63% of Likud voters said they are sure of their vote compared to just 45% of Yesh Atid voters.
Note #2: 15% of UTJ voters do not classify themselves as Haredi voters, Many of them classified themelves as former non-Haredi Shas voters.

Note #3: New look for “KnessetJeremy Polling Average” – The KJPA next to 2017 AVG, 2016 AVG, All Polls & 2015 Election results: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Smith conducted a poll of 500 registered Labor members with a 4.5% margin of error that was published by Maariv on April 22 2017. The model took into account age and geographic distribution. Poll was conducted after Margalit joined race with his video.

If Leadership Elections were held today who would you vote for?

(Among people who answered 100% chance they will vote in elections):
28% Peretz, 19% Bar-lev, 19% Gabai, 16% Herzog, 14% Margalit, 4% Don’t know yet

How sure are you that you will vote for the candidate you have chosen from a scale of 1-100?

88.17 Herzog, 85.83 Peretz, 84.61 Margalit, 80.2 Bar-lev, 79.07 Gabai

Percentage of people who answered 100:

50% Peretz, 48% Herzog, 42% Margalit, 36% Bar-lev, 30% Gabai

Notes: There are around 50 thousand members eligible to vote in the election. 74% answered the chance they will vote is above 90%. There are other candidates that were not polled.

Midgam conducted a poll of 503 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 2 on April 22 2017. The poll was taken on April 19-20.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud
24 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [24] Zionist Union
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [05] Meretz

65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Are you pleased with the conduct of Prime Minister Netanyahu?

61% No, 33% Yes, 6% Don’t know

Do you support Kahlon’s plan?

85% Yes, 10% Don’t know, 5% No

Will Kahlon’s plan improve your economic situation?

45% Won’t influence, 41% Will improve, 14% Don’t know

Why is there opposition to Kahlon’s plan from the Likud?

63% Political considerations, 22% Don’t know, 15% Concern for handicap funds

Average has been UPDATED: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Old Dialog conducted a poll of 612 people that was broadcast by Channel 10 on April 4 2017.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [11] Yesh Atid
27 [30] Likud
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Meretz
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [07] Shas
06 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
62 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
58 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Scenario Poll: Saar led Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [11] Yesh Atid
29 [30] Likud – led by Saar
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Meretz
06 [07] Shas
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
62 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
58 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

35% Don’t know or None, 23% Netanyahu, 18% Lapid, 11% Saar, 5% Bennett, 4% Liberman, 4% Herzog

Likud voters: 68% Netanyahu, 13% Saar, 6% Katz, 3% Erdan, 10% Don’t know or None

Panels conducted a poll of 520 people that was published by Walla on March 29 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [11] Yesh Atid
24 [30] Likud
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [24] Zionist Union
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [07] Shas
06 [05] Meretz

64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Does Netanyahu really want to go to elections right now?

67% No, 17% Don’t know, 16% Yes

Which side do you support in the current coalition crisis?

41% Kahlon, 32% Don’t know, 27% Netanyahu