Election Timing: If the Knesset fails to disperse this week, the window for a September election will effectively close, making an October election the only outcome.
Election Timing: The next election is still scheduled for October 27, 2026, just 131 days away. Unless the Knesset votes to disperse earlier before the end of the summer session in late July, that remains the date on which Israelis will choose the 27th Knesset.
After an extended break due to reserve duty and family commitments, KnessetJeremy will return next week with regular analysis and election coverage. Thank you to everyone who checked in during the break.
A lot has happened since my last post.
Most significantly, the Knesset this week approved in its first reading the bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset, by a vote of 106–0, moving Israel one step closer to early elections. The exact election date has not yet been finalized, but since we are already in June, elections would now almost certainly take place in either September or October.
The bill must still pass its second and third readings before early elections are officially called. If the bill ultimately does not advance, Israel remains on track for the regularly scheduled election date of October 27, 2026. As of today, that is less than five months away — just 146 days.
The election campaign has effectively begun. Whether Israelis go to the polls in mid-to-late September, early-to-mid October, or on the scheduled October 27 date, the political system is now entering full campaign mode.
Core takeaways: Netanyahu remains blocked in most polls and Bennett the clear opposition favorite.
While Netanyahu leads all head-to-head matchups, he is within the margin of error against Bennett (40–37), who remains competitive. At the same time, large pools of undecided voters signal continued volatility, particularly voters considering Gadi Eisenkot, whose potential support appears broad but shallow. Bennett is also the clear favorite to lead the non-Netanyahu Bloc, 37% to 28% for Eisenkot in the multi candidate poll and 51%-35% in the head-to-head matchup.
Public opinion remains sharply polarized: Torch lighting ceremony: ~45% view it as political vs ~31% statesmanlike Inquiry committee: 60% favor a state commission vs 23% a government-appointed one Across both issues, there is a clear divide between coalition and opposition voters.
Bloc Trends & Eyes on the Threshold
The dominant structural factor remains the ~6–8% wasted vote from parties below the threshold, enough to materially shift bloc outcomes.
For the Netanyahu bloc: The central vulnerability is Bezalel Smotrich running alone, failing to pass the threshold in most polls outside Filber, Additional risks include potential independent runs by Avi Maoz (Noam) and a new party led by Ofer Winter. For the Bennett bloc: Vote leakage to Benny Gantz and Yoaz Hendel, both consistently below threshold. For the Arab bloc: Fragmentation risk if Sami Abu Shehadeh leads Balad in an independent run.
Threshold dynamics alone explain much of the gap between polls, particularly the divergence seen in Filber where Smotrich consistently passes and the others do not.
What to Watch Next
We are roughly six months out from the election, and the system remains structurally locked: Bennett bloc ~60 and the Netanyahu bloc short of 61 in most polls.
Key upcoming trigger point: The Knesset returns from recess on May 11 From there, two scenarios: Status quo timeline: Knesset session runs through late July → election recess → 27 October election. Early election scenario: Government falls in May → election window between August 11 – September 1.
Bottom Line: The map has not fundamentally shifted with Netanyahu still blocked and Bennett consolidating the support within his camp.
Poll
Publisher
Pollster
Date
Sample
Margin of Error
1
Maariv
Lazar
April 23, 2026
502
±4.4%
2
Channel 12
Midgam
April 23, 2026
502
±4.4%
3
Channel 14
Filber
April 23, 2026
958
N/A
Party
Maariv/Lazar
Channel 12/Midgam
Channel 14/Filber
Likud (Netanyahu)
24
25
35
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)
24
21
10
Yashar (Eisenkot)
12
14
12
Democrats (Golan)
9
10
8
Yisrael Beteinu (Lieberman)
9
8
9
Yesh Atid (Lapid)
7
7
4
Shas (Deri)
9
9
11
UTJ
7
7
8
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)
9
9
8
Religious Zionist Party (Smotrich)
2.8%
2.7%
4
Joint List (Arab Bloc)
—
—
11
Hadash-Ta’al (Arab Bloc)
5
5
—
Ra’an (Arab Bloc)
5
5
—
Balad (Arab Bloc)
1.4%
0.4%
—
Reservists (Hendel)
2%
1.3%
—
Blue & White (Gantz)
1.7%
0.8%
1.2%
Bloc
Maariv/Lazar
Channel 12/Midgam
Channel 14/Filber
Netanyahu Bloc
49
50
66
Bennett Bloc
61
60
43
Arab Bloc
10
10
11
Additional Polls: All polls from Midgam unless specifically written
Matchup
Netanyahu
Opponent
Don’t Know
vs Bennett
40%
37%
23%
vs Eisenkot
40%
35%
25%
vs Lapid
44%
24%
32%
vs Lieberman
42%
19%
39%
Candidate to Lead the Non-Netanyahu Bloc
%
Bennett
37%
Eisenkot
29%
Lapid
12%
Lieberman
8%
Golan
6%
Don’t Know
8%
Bennett vs Eisenkot (Among Bloc Voters)
%
Bennett
51%
Eisenkot
35%
Don’t Know
14%
Commission of Inquiry Preference
General Public
Coalition Voters
Opposition Voters
State Commission (appointed by Supreme Court President)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 