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These are the official certified results that were handed today to President Rivlin by Central Election Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer. The most significant change between the interim results that were released Thursday night and the official results today is that UTJ gained a seat at the expense of Likud.

President Rivlin, who has already completed his Phase 2 consultations, announced that later today he will officially ask Prime Minister Netanyahu to form the next government.

PartyLeader/sVotesVote PercentageKnesset SeatsOutgoing seats
Likud (Netanyahu)1,140,37026.46%35[29] 
Blue & White(Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)1,125,88126.13%35[11] 
Shas (Deri)258,2755.99%8[07] 
United Torah Judaism (Litzman)249,0495.78%8[06] 
Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)193,4424.49%6[05] 
Labor (Gabbai)190,8704.43%6[18]
Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)173,0044.01%5[05] 
United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)159,4683.70%5[05] 
Meretz (Zandberg)156,4733.63%4[05] 
Kulanu (Kahlon)152,7563.54%4[10] 
Raam-Balad (Abbas)143,6663.33%4[08] 
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)138,5983.22%0[03] 
Zehut (Feiglin)118,0312.74%0[–-] 
Gesher (Orly Levy)74,7011.73%0[01] 
All other parties Oren Hazan, Gal Hirsch & Others34,6860.82%0[01] 
Blocs
Current Right-Religious BlocNetanyahu2,132,92249.48%65[66] 
Current Center-Left-Arab BlocGantz1,810,33242.01%55[54] 
Missed Thresholdn/a366,0168.51%0n/a

Notes: 4,340,253 of the 6,339,729 eligible voters cast their vote for the 21st Knesset for a turnout rate of 68.46%. 30,983 votes were disqualified. The electoral threshold of 3.25% was 140,051 votes.

Raam-Balad made the threshold by 3,614 votes. HaYamin HeHadash missed the threshold by 1,453 votes. Zehut missed the threshold by 22,020 votes. Gesher missed the threshold by 65,350 votes.

Yesterday I released the results of the top 10 populated cities. I compared the 2019 results to the results in 2015 and 2013 to provide context. In this post I provide the complete Top 20 Model that includes the cities that are rated 11-20 in terms of population.

In future posts I will examine specific areas of interest of the 2019 election and compare them to the previous election results from 2015.

Top 20 Cities
CityTel AvivTel AvivTel Aviv
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes268,795261,344244,901
Likud19.28%18.19%18%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White45.69%11.55%21%(Yesh Atid)
Shas3.20%3.90%6%
UTJ0.90%1.07%1%
Hadash-Taal1.63%3.18%3%(Joint List)
Labor8.52%34.27%24%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu1.38%2.09%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi1.08%3.36%4%
Meretz8.98%13.02%14%
Kulanu2.42%6.88%
Raam-Balad0.68%3.18%3%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash1.96%3.36%4%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.01%n/an/a
Gesher1.78%n/an/a
CityJerusalemJerusalemJerusalem
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes262,103255,286241,139
Likud24.76%24.24%21%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White11.76%4.21%7%(Yesh Atid)
Shas13.76%11.95%16%
UTJ23.32%21.13%22%
Hadash-Taal0.67%1.23%1%(Joint List)
Labor2.99%9.67%9%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu1.56%2.36%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi6.79%8.33%12%
Meretz3.24%3.98%4%
Kulanu2.00%4.68%
Raam-Balad0.16%1.23%1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash4.46%8.33%12%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.67%n/an/a
Gesher1.51%n/an/a
CityHaifaHaifaHaifa
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes145,606149,560139,363
Likud23.67%20.74%26%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White32.69%11.25%18%(Yesh Atid)
Shas2.03%2.23%3%
UTJ3.60%3.27%3%
Hadash-Taal5.06%8.27%7%(Joint List)
Labor5.62%25.28%22%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu7.30%8.03%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi2.09%5.37%6%
Meretz4.70%4.54%5%
Kulanu5.06%8.49%
Raam-Balad1.01%8.27%7%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.30%5.37%6%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.31%n/an/a
Gesher1.64%n/an/a
CityRishon L’TzionRishonRishon
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes138,817137,810125,345
Likud34.58%29.98%31%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White35.27%14.40%23%(Yesh Atid)
Shas2.78%2.97%5%
UTJ0.83%0.67%1%
Hadash-Taal0.05%0.06%<1%(Joint List)
Labor4.12%22.85%21%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu5.67%6.92%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi1.59%5.25%7%
Meretz1.49%2.13%2%
Kulanu5.24%11.44%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.06%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.45%5.25%7%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.84%n/an/a
Gesher2.39%n/an/a
CityPetah TikvaPetah TikvaPetah Tikva
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes131,617124,400111,194
Likud31.66%28.15%29%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White27.14%11.69%18%(Yesh Atid)
Shas6.03%5.58%7%
UTJ4.34%3.87%4%
Hadash-Taal0.05%0.07%<1%(Joint List)
Labor3.31%17.81%16%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu5.68%6.72%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi6.03%10.71%13%
Meretz1.31%2.00%2%
Kulanu4.23%9.52%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.07%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash4.74%10.71%13%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.94%n/an/a
Gesher1.85%n/an/a
CityAshdodAshdodAshdod
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes117,488113,203103,274
Likud33.94%31.49%36%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White16.45%7.78%10%(Yesh Atid)
Shas11.40%10.53%17%
UTJ11.69%9.83%10%
Hadash-Taal0.04%0.03%<1%(Joint List)
Labor1.51%8.56%10%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu12.38%13.36%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi1.61%4.83%7%
Meretz0.52%0.75%1%
Kulanu3.66%7.61%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.03%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.18%4.83%7%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.77%n/an/a
Gesher1.16%n/an/a
CityNetanyaNetanyaNetanya
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes109,241105,46892,694
Likud37.85%33.54%34%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White22.83%10.46%16%(Yesh Atid)
Shas8.73%7.77%11%
UTJ2.94%2.77%2%
Hadash-Taal0.03%0.06%<1%(Joint List)
Labor2.67%13.82%13%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu6.76%7.99%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi3.35%6.43%11%
Meretz1.05%1.46%2%
Kulanu5.29%11.18%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.06%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash3.10%6.43%11%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut3.04%n/an/a
Gesher1.64%n/an/a
CityHolonHolonHolon
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes101,653102,06493,248
Likud37.51%31.19%31%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White28.98%12.50%20%(Yesh Atid)
Shas7.28%7.88%11%
UTJ1.02%0.62%<1%
Hadash-Taal0.06%0.09%<1%(Joint List)
Labor4.13%20.12%19%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu4.26%5.49%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi1.59%4.86%6%
Meretz1.49%2.13%3%
Kulanu5.64%11.98%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.09%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.15%4.86%6%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.68%n/an/a
Gesher2.49%n/an/a
CityBeer ShevaBeer ShevaBeer Sheva
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes98,99397,15385,611
Likud43.01%37.69%38%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White17.49%7.53%11%(Yesh Atid)
Shas6.03%6.36%13%
UTJ1.30%0.70%1%
Hadash-Taal0.29%0.55%<1%(Joint List)
Labor2.69%12.24%13%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu9.50%12.06%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi2.83%6.98%12%
Meretz1.27%1.40%2%
Kulanu3.93%8.80%
Raam-Balad0.15%0.55%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash4.58%6.98%12%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut4.32%n/an/a
Gesher1.78%n/an/a
CityRamat GanRamat GanRamat Gan
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes87,12685,12680,182
Likud24.80%22.96%23%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White42.91%14.28%23%(Yesh Atid)
Shas2.70%3.13%4%
UTJ0.99%0.98%1%
Hadash-Taal0.22%0.23%<1%(Joint List)
Labor7.38%31.15%24%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu1.58%2.55%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi2.19%6.03%7%
Meretz4.37%6.15%7%
Kulanu4.28%9.74%
Raam-Balad0.04%0.23%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.85%6.03%7%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.70%n/an/a
Gesher2.43%n/an/a
CityBnei BrakBnei BrakBnei Brak
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes84,20278,62175,147
Likud5.35%4.57%4%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White1.23%0.65%1%(Yesh Atid)
Shas26.47%23.97%25%
UTJ61.81%59.35%60%
Hadash-Taal0.01%0.02%<1%(Joint List)
Labor0.25%1.28%1%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu0.38%0.68%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi2.29%2.35%4%
Meretz0.14%0.20%<1%
Kulanu0.48%1.15%
Raam-Balad0.01%0.02%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash0.61%2.35%4%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut0.62%n/an/a
Gesher0.15%n/an/a
CityRechovotRechovotRechovot
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes73,52069,38262,147
Likud28.91%27.18%27%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White30.62%11.77%17%(Yesh Atid)
Shas5.33%4.80%8%
UTJ4.04%3.58%4%
Hadash-Taal0.12%0.15%<1%(Joint List)
Labor4.75%20.64%19%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu4.07%5.26%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi5.19%8.35%11%
Meretz3.17%3.76%4%
Kulanu4.20%8.78%
Raam-Balad0.04%0.15%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash3.65%8.35%11%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut3.08%n/an/a
Gesher2.23%n/an/a
CityAshkelonAshkelonAshkelon
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes70,01063,83654,431
Likud42.61%39.88%42%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White15.81%6.60%10%(Yesh Atid)
Shas6.78%6.58%14%
UTJ1.78%1.00%1%
Hadash-Taal0.04%0.08%<1%(Joint List)
Labor1.85%9.72%11%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu13.13%15.12%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi3.09%5.68%9%
Meretz0.66%0.89%1%
Kulanu5.35%8.37%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.08%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.97%5.68%9%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut3.48%n/an/a
Gesher1.34%n/an/a
CityBat YamBat YamBat Yam
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes64,94868,20463,960
Likud38.51%33.36%37%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White21.75%9.27%15%(Yesh Atid)
Shas6.56%6.88%12%
UTJ1.11%1.03%1%
Hadash-Taal0.12%0.18%<1%(Joint List)
Labor2.79%14.58%16%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu12.52%12.88%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi2.68%5.15%7%
Meretz1.12%1.42%2%
Kulanu5.20%11.19%
Raam-Balad0.04%0.18%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash1.80%5.15%7%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.95%n/an/a
Gesher1.77%n/an/a
CityKfar SabaKfar SabaKfar Saba
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes58,66256,47751,659
Likud23.93%21.89%23%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White45.94%14.32%22%(Yesh Atid)
Shas1.96%2.43%4%
UTJ0.62%0.63%<1%
Hadash-Taal0.13%0.19%<1%(Joint List)
Labor7.59%34.94%26%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu2.38%3.39%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi2.13%5.57%7%
Meretz4.54%5.98%7%
Kulanu3.15%7.88%
Raam-Balad0.04%0.19%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.76%5.57%7%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.22%n/an/a
Gesher2.13%n/an/a
CityHertzliaHertzliaHertzlia
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes54,92753,68150,958
Likud23.45%21.88%22%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White47.82%14.98%26%(Yesh Atid)
Shas2.35%2.85%4%
UTJ0.84%1.08%1%
Hadash-Taal0.14%0.19%<1%(Joint List)
Labor6.66%34.45%24%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu1.93%2.67%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi1.58%4.16%6%
Meretz4.69%6.51%8%
Kulanu3.44%8.54%
Raam-Balad0.03%0.19%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.24%4.16%6%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.08%n/an/a
Gesher2.30%n/an/a
CityModiinModiinModiin
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes47,97543,83039,954
Likud22.72%22.87%23%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White42.30%18.01%27%(Yesh Atid)
Shas1.23%1.25%2%
UTJ0.55%0.58%<1%
Hadash-Taal0.08%0.08%<1%(Joint List)
Labor6.78%29.06%23%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu1.62%2.19%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi3.34%10.56%12%
Meretz3.55%4.84%6%
Kulanu4.02%8.12%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.08%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash7.18%10.56%12%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.77%n/an/a
Gesher3.40%n/an/a
CityHaderaHaderaHadera
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes47,50844,72638,578
Likud37.97%32.16%34%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White25.93%9.83%16%(Yesh Atid)
Shas6.39%6.09%9%
UTJ1.06%1.69%2%
Hadash-Taal0.08%0.31%<1%(Joint List)
Labor3.53%15.86%18%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu6.70%8.38%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi2.11%5.04%8%
Meretz1.52%1.94%2%
Kulanu6.97%15.75%
Raam-Balad0.07%0.31%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.08%5.04%8%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut3.00%n/an/a
Gesher1.72%n/an/a
CityRaananaRaananaRaanana
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes44,30942,84241,153
Likud23.36%21.45%19%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White43.53%14.18%24%(Yesh Atid)
Shas2.82%2.06%3%
UTJ1.40%1.20%1%
Hadash-Taal0.08%0.11%<1%(Joint List)
Labor5.76%32.95%23%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu0.98%1.48%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi4.01%10.91%14%
Meretz3.96%
Kulanu2.63%6.73%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.11%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash6.74%5.47%7%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.37%n/an/a
Gesher1.92%n/an/a
CityBet ShemeshBet ShemeshBet Shemesh
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes40,58833,87829,593
Likud25.79%26.72%23%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White4.26%2.60%4%(Yesh Atid)
Shas15.94%14.35%18%
UTJ33.58%28.30%28%
Hadash-Taal0.03%0.02%<1%(Joint List)
Labor0.82%3.28%4%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu2.12%3.90%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi7.46%9.01%14%
Meretz0.32%0.48%1%
Kulanu1.48%3.50%
Raam-Balad<0.01%0.02%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash3.76%9.01%14%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut3.40%n/an/a
Gesher0.60%n/an/a

Notes: 2013 Likud results include Yisrael Beitenu. Blue & White is being compared to Yesh Atid in 2015 & 2013. Both Hadash-Taal & Raam-Balad are being compared to The Joint List in 2015 & a combo of the four parties in 2013. Labor is being compared to the Zionist Union in 2015 and Labor + The Livni party in 2013. Yisrael Beltenu ran in 2013 with the Likud. Kulanu did not run in the 2013 elections. HaYamin HeHadash’s results are being compared to 2015 & 2013 Bayit Yehudi results.

Tonight I am releasing the results in the top 10 populated cities. The 2019 results are being compared to results in 2015 and 2013 to provide context.

In the next post I will release the results of the cities that are rated 11-20 in terms of population.

Top 10 Cities
CityTel AvivTel AvivTel Aviv
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes268,795261,344244,901
Likud19.28%18.19%18%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White45.69%11.55%21%(Yesh Atid)
Shas3.20%3.90%6%
UTJ0.90%1.07%1%
Hadash-Taal1.63%3.18%3%(Joint List)
Labor8.52%34.27%24%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu1.38%2.09%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi1.08%3.36%4%
Meretz8.98%13.02%14%
Kulanu2.42%6.88%
Raam-Balad0.68%3.18%3%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash1.96%3.36%4%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.01%n/an/a
Gesher1.78%n/an/a
CityJerusalemJerusalemJerusalem
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes262,103255,286241,139
Likud24.76%24.24%21%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White11.76%4.21%7%(Yesh Atid)
Shas13.76%11.95%16%
UTJ23.32%21.13%22%
Hadash-Taal0.67%1.23%1%(Joint List)
Labor2.99%9.67%9%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu1.56%2.36%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi6.79%8.33%12%
Meretz3.24%3.98%4%
Kulanu2.00%4.68%
Raam-Balad0.16%1.23%1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash4.46%8.33%12%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.67%n/an/a
Gesher1.51%n/an/a
CityHaifaHaifaHaifa
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes145,606149,560139,363
Likud23.67%20.74%26%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White32.69%11.25%18%(Yesh Atid)
Shas2.03%2.23%3%
UTJ3.60%3.27%3%
Hadash-Taal5.06%8.27%7%(Joint List)
Labor5.62%25.28%22%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu7.30%8.03%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi2.09%5.37%6%
Meretz4.70%4.54%5%
Kulanu5.06%8.49%
Raam-Balad1.01%8.27%7%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.30%5.37%6%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.31%n/an/a
Gesher1.64%n/an/a
CityRishon L’TzionRishonRishon
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes138,817137,810125,345
Likud34.58%29.98%31%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White35.27%14.40%23%(Yesh Atid)
Shas2.78%2.97%5%
UTJ0.83%0.67%1%
Hadash-Taal0.05%0.06%<1%(Joint List)
Labor4.12%22.85%21%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu5.67%6.92%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi1.59%5.25%7%
Meretz1.49%2.13%2%
Kulanu5.24%11.44%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.06%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.45%5.25%7%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.84%n/an/a
Gesher2.39%n/an/a
CityPetah TikvaPetah TikvaPetah Tikva
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes131,617124,400111,194
Likud31.66%28.15%29%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White27.14%11.69%18%(Yesh Atid)
Shas6.03%5.58%7%
UTJ4.34%3.87%4%
Hadash-Taal0.05%0.07%<1%(Joint List)
Labor3.31%17.81%16%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu5.68%6.72%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi6.03%10.71%13%
Meretz1.31%2.00%2%
Kulanu4.23%9.52%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.07%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash4.74%10.71%13%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.94%n/an/a
Gesher1.85%n/an/a
CityAshdodAshdodAshdod
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes117,488113,203103,274
Likud33.94%31.49%36%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White16.45%7.78%10%(Yesh Atid)
Shas11.40%10.53%17%
UTJ11.69%9.83%10%
Hadash-Taal0.04%0.03%<1%(Joint List)
Labor1.51%8.56%10%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu12.38%13.36%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi1.61%4.83%7%
Meretz0.52%0.75%1%
Kulanu3.66%7.61%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.03%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.18%4.83%7%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.77%n/an/a
Gesher1.16%n/an/a
CityNetanyaNetanyaNetanya
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes109,241105,46892,694
Likud37.85%33.54%34%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White22.83%10.46%16%(Yesh Atid)
Shas8.73%7.77%11%
UTJ2.94%2.77%2%
Hadash-Taal0.03%0.06%<1%(Joint List)
Labor2.67%13.82%13%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu6.76%7.99%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi3.35%6.43%11%
Meretz1.05%1.46%2%
Kulanu5.29%11.18%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.06%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash3.10%6.43%11%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut3.04%n/an/a
Gesher1.64%n/an/a
CityHolonHolonHolon
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes101,653102,06493,248
Likud37.51%31.19%31%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White28.98%12.50%20%(Yesh Atid)
Shas7.28%7.88%11%
UTJ1.02%0.62%<1%
Hadash-Taal0.06%0.09%<1%(Joint List)
Labor4.13%20.12%19%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu4.26%5.49%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi1.59%4.86%6%
Meretz1.49%2.13%3%
Kulanu5.64%11.98%
Raam-Balad0.02%0.09%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.15%4.86%6%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.68%n/an/a
Gesher2.49%n/an/a
CityBeer ShevaBeer ShevaBeer Sheva
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes98,99397,15385,611
Likud43.01%37.69%38%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White17.49%7.53%11%(Yesh Atid)
Shas6.03%6.36%13%
UTJ1.30%0.70%1%
Hadash-Taal0.29%0.55%<1%(Joint List)
Labor2.69%12.24%13%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu9.50%12.06%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi2.83%6.98%12%
Meretz1.27%1.40%2%
Kulanu3.93%8.80%
Raam-Balad0.15%0.55%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash4.58%6.98%12%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut4.32%n/an/a
Gesher1.78%n/an/a
CityRamat GanRamat GanRamat Gan
Party/Year201920152013
Overall Votes87,12685,12680,182
Likud24.80%22.96%23%(2013 w/YB)
Blue & White42.91%14.28%23%(Yesh Atid)
Shas2.70%3.13%4%
UTJ0.99%0.98%1%
Hadash-Taal0.22%0.23%<1%(Joint List)
Labor7.38%31.15%24%(Zionist Union)
Yisrael Beitenu1.58%2.55%w/Likud
Bayit Yehudi2.19%6.03%7%
Meretz4.37%6.15%7%
Kulanu4.28%9.74%
Raam-Balad0.04%0.23%<1%(Joint List)
HaYamin HeHadash2.85%6.03%7%(Bayit Yehudi)
Zehut2.70%n/an/a
Gesher2.43%n/an/a

Notes: 2013 Likud results include Yisrael Beitenu. Blue & White is being compared to Yesh Atid in 2015 & 2013. Both Hadash-Taal & Raam-Balad are being compared to The Joint List in 2015 & a combo of the four parties in 2013. Labor is being compared to the Zionist Union in 2015 and Labor + The Livni party in 2013. Yisrael Beltenu ran in 2013 with the Likud. Kulanu did not run in the 2013 elections. HaYamin HeHadash’s results are being compared to 2015 & 2013 Bayit Yehudi results.

Five lists arrived at the President’s Residence today for “Day 1”. Six lists arrived today for “Day 2”.

On Day 2, Netanyahu was nominated by Yisrael Beitenu, URP & Kulanu. Gantz was nominated by Labor & Meretz. Raam-Balad chose not to nominate anyone.

Yesterday, on Day 1, Netanyahu was nominated by Likud, Shas & UTJ. Gantz was nominated by Blue & White. Hadash-Taal chose not to nominate anyone.

The final Phase 2 results are Netanyahu 65, Gantz 45 and neither 10.

Tomorrow Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer will submit the certified results of Phase 1 to President Rivlin. Rivlin, who has already conducted the Phase 2 consultations, is expected to formally ask Prime Minister Netanyahu to form his fifth government. Once given the mandate Netanyahu will have 42 days until May 29th 2019.

The 21st Knesset will be sworn in April 30th and the new government is expected to be sworn in during the first week of June.

President Rivlin received special permission from the Central Elections Committee Chairman to begin consultations with the delegations of the lists elected to Knesset prior to the official certified results that will be released on Wednesday. The Jewish Holiday of Passover starts Friday night.

Five lists arrived at the President’s Residence today for “Day 1”. Six will arrive tomorrow for “Day 2”.

Netanyahu was nominated by Likud, Shas & UTJ for a combined 51 nominations. Gantz was nominated by Blue & White. Hadash-Taal chose not to nominate anyone.

Going into Day 2 tomorrow – the interim results are Netanyahu 51, Gantz 35 and neither 6.

“The final results of the elections for the 21st Knesset will be published in Reshumot by Wednesday, April 17, 2019. By this date, the results may be revised due to the various control and examination processes that the committee conducts on the election results.” Source: Israeli Central Committtee Elections Website: https://votes21.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=99999

Note: The official results will be certified by Central Election Committee Justice Meltzer on Wednesday. There are a number of polling stations that will be looked at again such as the ones in Bat Ayin, Gevaot Bar & Itamar. The magic number for HaYamin HeHadash to get in is 1,461 votes. I will post again on Wednesday an updated bracket of the final percentage points.

Vote PercentageKnesset SeatsOutgoing seatsPartyLeader/s
26.45%36[29] Likud (Netanyahu)
26.11%35[11] Blue & White(Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
5.99%8[07] Shas (Deri)
5.77%7[06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
4.49%6[05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
4.44%6[18]Labor (Gabbai)
4.02%5[05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
3.70%5[05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
3.63%4[05] Meretz (Zandberg)
3.54%4[10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
3.34%4[08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
3.22%0[03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
2.73%0[–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.73%0[01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
0.74%0[01] All other parties Oren Hazan, Gal Hirsch & Others
65[66] Current Right-Religious BlocNetanyahu
55[54] Current Center-Left-Arab BlocGantz

Meltzer Decision that was sent to the parties and published a few minutes before midnight between Thursday night and Friday morning. The translation to English is my own:

Re: Election results for the 21st Knesset

Further to my announcement today, at 19:30, I submit to you the results of the elections for the 21st Knesset, as prepared by the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset, as of this time. I would like to emphasize that these results are published after many control procedures carried out by the Central Elections Committee. However, these are not the official results to be published on April 17 2019, in accordance with Article 11 of the Basic Law: The Knesset, and shall be submitted to the President of the State. We reserve the right to examine the results in various other control tools that the committee operates, in order to reflect accurate results, in a manner that is beneficial and in accordance with the Knesset Elections Law [Consolidated Version], 1969, and therefore these results are still subject to changes and adjustments. Before these results were published, I was presented with a request from the United Torah Judaism faction, which was submitted to me in writing, as well as a telephone call from Minister Ayelet Shaked to the Legal Advisor to the Committee, Adv. Dan Livneh, who requested to delay this publication, since the results set to be published are not final. After examination of the request and the appeal I found that there is no room to accept it because of course this is the publication of “interim” results, which are still subject to change. And I believe that it has an inherent advantage, since it increases the transparency of the results to the public, and enables the public and the parties to examine the results of the publication of the results. I would like to mention that in previous election campaigns, the results of the elections were published in a similar format, which were later modified and adjusted – on the Election Committee website, and I was not given any clear reason to deviate from this practice. Therefore, soon after the letters are sent to members of the Central Elections Committee and to the lists of candidates, the results will be posted on the committee’s website.


Exit polls 2019:

PlacePartyLeaderChannel 11Channel 12Channel 13Channel 20i24 newsYnetExit Poll AVGExit Poll Seats
1stBlue & WhiteGantz37373633333334.936
2ndLikudNetanyahu3633362727273133
3rdLaborGabbai8679897.99
4thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman7777756.77
5thShasDeri7676576.37
6thHadash-TaalOdeh6675776.37
7thUnited Right ListPeretz5546745.26
8thKulanuKahlon54466556
9thMeretzZandberg5546544.85
10thHaYamin HeHadashBennett0 (2.51%)046763.84
11thRaam-BaladAbbas06044430
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman4540042.80
13thZehutFeiglin0 (2.42%)005452.30
14thGesherLevy0 (1.73%)0000000
Right-Religious Bloc64606663636363.263
Center-Left-Arab Bloc56605457575756.857

Notes (I’lll update as more methodology is released): Channel 11 was conducted by TNS/Teleseker in 60 polling stations. Channel 12 was conducted by Midgam. Channel 13 was conducted by Dialog. Channel 20 was conducted by Maagar Mochot. I24news was conducted by Sarid with 3,756 people with a 1.8% +/- margin of error. Ynet was conducted by Pardes with over 10,000 people.

Here is the average of the 5 exit polls from 2015:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/18/average-of-5-exit-polls-likud-26-2-zionist-union-25-6-joint-arab-list-13-yesh-atid-11-8-kulanu-9-6-bayit-yehudi-8-4-shas-7-2/

Takeaway: The average was more accurate than any individual exit poll.

Here is the 2015 exit poll average compared to the 2015 election results.

Takeaway: The average was accurate for most of the parties with a +/-1 seat margin of error.

https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/18/comparing-results-after-over-99-of-results-to-exit-polls-and-knesset-jeremy-model/


There are three votes that determine the Israeli Prime Minister. The first, or as I call it “Phase 1”, takes place tomorrow’s Knesset election for Israel’s legislative branch. The second, or as I call it “Phase 2”, takes place when the parties that enter the Knesset nominate a Prime Minister candidate at the President’s Residence. The third, or as I call it “Phase 3”, takes place when the person who was handed the mandate to form a coalition government presents his new government for a confidence vote in the Knesset.

In my previous posts I provided my predictions for Phase 1 and Phase 2. In this piece I will present my predictions for Phase 3.

Option #1: 66 MK right-religious bloc led by Netanyahu: 30 Likud, 6 UTJ, 6 URP, 6 HaYamin HeHadash, 5 Shas, 5 Zehut, 4 Kulanu, 4 Yisrael Beitenu.

In this scenario all of the parties who nominated Netanyahu join his coalition.

Option #2: 61 MK right-religious bloc led by Netanyahu: 30 Likud, 6 UTJ, 6 URP, 6 HaYamin HeHadash, 5 Shas, 4 Kulanu, 4 Yisrael Beitenu.

In this scenario Zehut is left outside of the coalition. A variation of this option would see Netanyahu leaving out Shas, Kulanu or Yisrael Beitenu. Leaving Kahlon or Liberman out would provide a slightly more stable 62-58 coalition.

Option #3: 69 MK National Unity Government with 30 Likud, 29 Blue & White, 9 Labor, 4 Kulanu.

In this scenario Netanyahu either remains Prime Minister for the entire term or he agrees to a rotation where he will step down at some point during the term in favor of Gantz.

Option #4: 67 MK right-center-left coalition for Gantz: 29 Blue & White, 9 Labor, 6 UTJ, 5 Shas, 5 Meretz. 5 Zehut, 4 Kulanu, 4 Yisrael Beitenu

In this scenario Gantz can leave Liberman out and still lead a 63-MK coalition.

Prediction:

Option 1 would provide Netanyahu with the most flexibility because none of the coalition partners would have the leverage of bringing down the government if they chose to leave the coalition. However, giving senior portfolios to seven parties could prove difficult.

Option 2 is a more likely scenario than Option 1 because Feiglin, Liberman or Kahlon could ask for too much. Netanyahu might prefer to leave one of the parties in his bloc outside to start off the term instead of giving in to too many parties in coalition demands. In Phase 3 of 2015 Netanyahu started off with a 61-59 coalition, leaving Liberman out of the government for about a year, before bringing him in later when it was necessary.

Option 3 might prove the most stable, especially if the Trump Peace Plan is released between Phase 2 and Phase 3. In this scenario Gantz doesn’t need to nominate Netanyahu for Prime Minister. Gantz can fulfill his campaign pledge not to nominate Netanyahu at the President’s Residence and “replace” the right-religious bloc parties who had nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2 in Phase 3 by signing a coalition agreement. Gantz can justify it to his base that he alone can provide the stability needed for an Israeli government that would agree to pursue the Trump Peace Plan. Netanyahu has signed coalition deals with parties that have not nominated him in Phase 2. The most recent cases are Ehud Barak’s Labor Party in 2009 and Tzipi Livni’s HaTnuna Party in 2013.

Option 4 is a big stretch. UTJ & Shas have ruled out sitting with Lapid. Liberman refuses to sit with Meretz or with Yaalon. Yaalon and Meretz refuse to sit with Liberman. There does not seem to be enough senior portfolios to hand off to Liberman or Kahlon. Gantz can’t offer either of them anything better than what they would probably receive from Netanyahu. Additionally, both of them consider themselves part of the right-religious bloc.

The two most likely Phase 3 options are Option 2 (or a variation of it) or Option 3. It is difficult to predict which option Netanyahu will choose and he might pursue both of them simultaneously. He has done that in the past. The most recent case was in 2016 when Netanyahu negotiated with Herzog’s Zionist Union and Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu in efforts to expand his government.

I can’t determine at this time which option, between option 2 and option 3, is more likely but I can determine that the most likely option is that Prime Minister Netanyahu is re-elected in Phase 3.

The polls open in less than seven hours.
To all of my Israeli followers – go vote!

Last night I posted my Phase 1 Prediction Analysis:

30 Likud
29 Blue & White
9 Labor
7 Hadash-Taal
6 UTJ
6 URP
6 HaYamin HeHadash
5 Meretz
5 Shas
5 Zehut
4 Kulanu
4 Yisrael Beitenu
4 Raam-Balad
0 Gesher & Others

Today I am posting my Phase 2 Prediction Analysis:

Based on the Phase 1 predictions these are the three most likely scenarios for Phase 2 based on the math. Remember, President Rivlin is on record that if a Prime Minister candidate receives 61 or more nominations in the President’s Residence that he will grant them the chance to form the next government.

#1 Path to a Netanyahu Coalition:

66 nominations for Netanyahu: 30 Likud, 6 UTJ, 6 URP, 6 HaYamin HeHadash, 5 Shas, 5 Zehut, 4 Kulanu, 4 Yisrael Beitenu

43 nominations for Gantz: 29 Blue & White, 9 Labor, 5 Meretz

11 Won’t nominate: 7 Hadash-Taal, 4 Raam-Balad 

#2 Path to a Gantz Coalition:

59 nominations for Gantz: 29 Blue & White, 9 Labor, 7 Hadash-Taal, 5 Meretz. 5 Zehut, 4 Kulanu

57 nominations for Netanyahu: 30 Likud, 6 UTJ, 6 URP, 6 HaYamin HeHadash, 5 Shas, 4 Yisrael Beitenu

4 Won’t nominate: 4 Raam-Balad 

#3 Path to a National Unity (Netanyahu-Gantz) Coalition:

69 nominations: 30 Likud, 29 Blue & White, 9 Labor, 4 Kulanu

The 3 possible paths:

Path #1 is the most likely. Likud, UTJ, URP, HaYamin HeHadash, Shas & Yisrael Beitenu have all made public commitments to endorse Netanyahu in Phase 2. Likud helped form the URP. UTJ & Shas have vowed to never sit a coalition with Lapid. Deri used Netanyahu in his campaign ads. Liberman went as far as going on record that he has no interest in reading the 57-page document released by the Attorney General that recommends an indictment of the Prime Minister pending a hearing. Liberman also refuses to sit with Yaalon. Kahlon has gone on record many times that he is willing to sit with Netanyahu until after the AG makes a decision after the hearing. Kahlon has enlisted former Likud Prime Minister Menachem Begin for his campaign ads and has added the words “right-wing” to the Kulanu ballot note. Netanyahu has 61 nominations even without Ex-Likud MK Feiglin’s Zehut party. The majority of Zehut’s voters are right wing and that makes it difficult for Feiglin not to recommend Netanyahu in Phase 2, although he has more room when it comes to Phase 3 which we will discuss tomorrow.

Path #2 is less likely. In this scenario Gantz doesn’t get 61 nominations and he relies on Tibi & Odeh nominating him. In this scenario Gantz would need to give both Kahlon and Feiglin senior portfolios as a prize for not nominating Netanyahu. Would Labor and Meretz agree to sit in a government where they do not receive top portfolios? Where does that leave Lapid, Yaalon and Ashkeanzi? There might not be enough to go around.

Path #3 is the least likely. If the two largest parties don’t have a majority of seats between them that would mean that they would need additional parties to agree to join a possible coalition like that before the official coalition negotiations even get started. Historically, Presidents have only pursued national unity governments when the two largest parties have a majority of the Knesset seats.

Timeline between Phase 1 and 2, and exactly how Phase 2 works:

Tuesday at 10 PM Israel time the voting will end and election will be over. Those who enter the polling station before 10 PM will still be allowed to vote. Each polling station will have a committee of three people, representing three different parties and those three people will tally the votes by hand. The party representatives will text the results to their headquarters so that the Party Leaders know the results before the television journalists. The official results will be entered into the computer and published on the Central Elections Committee website as the night goes on. Exit polls are closed at 8 PM and therefore will not include trends that affect the voting in the closing hours. The media focus will be on the exit polls until the middle of the night when a good percentage of the vote will have been counted.

By the morning we should have most of the votes in and the Phase 1 results should be rather clear. The “double-envelope” votes will not be included in these initial results. These are votes by citizens who voted overseas or in Israeli army bases, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails or polling station committee members. These votes will be counted afterwards in the Knesset itself. Expect a slight shift of a seat-or-two in the final Phase 1 results after the double-envelope votes are counted. This becomes particularly interesting for the parties that are close to the electoral threshold.

Phase 2:

President Rivlin is expected to meet with the Knesset factions in an unofficial capacity after the election results are clear. The unofficial negotiations that are conducted between Phase 1 and Phase 2 have almost always enabled one of the Prime Minister candidates to reach enough support to get the first crack. The parties visit the President in order of party size. The law does not take the size of a party into account in terms of mandating who the President should select to form the next government. The law requires President Rivlin to sit with all of the newly elected lists before making a decision on who should get the first crack at forming a new government. Rivlin will make an announcement after all of the nominations are in. The newly elected Knesset will be sworn in on April 30th. We will not have a new government at that date, but we should know who will get the first crack at putting together the next government. As I have mentioned before I expect the new government to be sworn in during the first week of June.

Prediction:

Bottom line my prediction is that it will not be in President Rivlin’s hands. Someone is going to get a majority and the most likely candidate is Netanyahu. By law, in the event no one gets 61 seats, Rivlin can determine based on his own considerations “who has the best chance at forming a coalition”. This scenario seems unlikely based on the current projections.

During the unofficial negotiating phase Gantz will have a tough job giving Kahlon a competitive offer compared to Netanyahu. Gantz can’t negotiate with other Likud members as long as Netanyahu remains the leader of Likud. Feiglin is capable of just nominating himself. He might be capable of making the threat to follow through with a crazy idea like that, but most likely it would be an empty threat to milk a better deal out of Netanyahu. Netanyahu gets through Phase 2 without Feiglin based on my Phase 1 prediction.

Netanyahu, after he gets the mandate from Rivlin, is going to have problems forming coalition agreements with seven additional parties. It is possible Netanyahu doesn’t reach Phase 3 and that Gantz gets a nod to be the second person to try Phase 2, although this option is highly unlikely. A national unity government is possible in Phase 3 and I will address that in my post tomorrow. I do expect changes between Phase 2 and Phase 3.

To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!

Phase 1 Prediction Analysis

Yesterday, I posted the final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019.

Tonight, I am posting the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2019.

PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremy Prediction ModelChangeLast KnessetJeremy AVG
1stLikudNetanyahu30129
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz29-130
3rdLaborGabbai9-110
4thHadash-TaalOdeh7-18
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman6-17
6thUnited Right ListPeretz6-17
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett606
8thMeretzZandberg5-16
9thShasDeri5-16
10thZehutFeiglin5-16
11thKulanuKahlon4-15
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman440 (3)
13thRaam-BaladAbbas440 (3)
14thGesher27 Others000 (2)
Right-Religious Bloc66066
Center-Left-Arab Bloc54054

Few quick notes:

*For those who are wondering, I am expecting a 2-seat margin of error for the larger parties, a 1-seat margin of error for the smaller parties and two “exceptions”. I am expecting there to be a major swing where one party receives a majority of undecided voters last minute at the expense of another party that will lose a significant number of votes.

Phase 1 Recap:

#1 Likud: 30 seats:

How we got here: It took Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu six elections as Likud’s leader (1996, 1999, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015) to reach 30 seats. After a four-year term and an election season of ups and downs it appears that Netanyahu will be right back where he started – 30 seats and the largest party in Knesset.

Why they could get more: If Netanyahu’s decision to repeat his 2015 campaign strategy of a last-minute effort to attract right-wing voters from his bloc to Likud is a success. The danger of this approach is that if he succeeds too much, he might send some of his coalition partners under the electoral threshold, which could put his re-election as Prime Minister in jeopardy.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of Likud voters feel that Netanyahu has won and choose to skip the voting booth on their way to the beach.

#2 Blue & White: 29 seats:

How we got here: After years of scenario polls the “big four” of Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashekenazi joined up to create the latest mega-party that markets itself as an alternative to Netanyahu. Gantz hopes to succeed where Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in 2009 & Issac Herzog’s Zionist Union failed.

Why they could get more: If Gantz is able to convince more anti-Netanyahu voters that he is the only alternative to Netanyahu.

Why they could get less: If Labor & Meretz voters decide to bolt back to their previous parties because they believe Gantz might take their votes and sit in a coalition government with Netanyahu.

#3 Labor: 9 Seats:

How we got here: Avi Gabbai has brought his party back from polls that had his party within the margin of error of not crossing the threshold to what is now expected to be the third largest party in the next Knesset.

Why they could get more: If Blue & White stumble during the stretch run there are many undecided voters on the center-left bloc that name Labor as their second choice.

Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.

#4 Hadash-Taal: 7 seats:

How we got here: Odeh & Tibi joined to form what is viewed as a more moderate political home for the non-Jewish population.

Why they could get more: If the turnout of the non-Jewish population is higher than expected.

Why they could get less: If Hadash-Taal voters vote for Raam-Balad because they fear that the latter might not pass the threshold.

#5-tie UTJ: 6 seats:

How we got here: Agudat Yisrael agreed to Degel HaTorah’s terms and for the first time the two Ashkenazi parties that make up the faction are running on a 50%-50% slate. Eli Yishai’s endorsement was also helpful.

Why they could get more: If the general turnout is lower than expected so UTJ is in a great spot to win a seventh seat.

Why they could get less: If a larger number of undecided Haredi voters choose to vote for non-Haredi parties.

#5-tie URP: 6 seats:

How we got here: Bayit Yehudi, Tekuma & Otzma agreed to run a joint faction. Likud gave Bayit Yehudi an additional slot on their list to make up for the voters that can’t stomach voting for Otzma.

Why they could get more: If the last-minute push to get Otzma candidate Itamar Ben Gvir in the Knesset is successful.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#5-tie HaYamin HeHadash: 6 seats:

How we got here: Naftali Bennett & Ayelet Shaked, the two most popular ministers in a series of polls before the elections, formed a new party 100 days before the election with a 50% religious – 50% secular slate.

Why they could get more: Early polls had the party in double digits and there are many undecided voters who list them as their second option.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#8-tie Meretz: 5 seats:

How we got here: Tamar Zandberg has made the case that Meretz is the only party in Israel that labels itself as a left-wing party and that she will only sit in a Gantz Government.

Why they could get more: If Meretz is able to convince undecided center-left voters that they are the only ones that can pull Gantz to the left.

Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.

#8-tie Shas: 5 seats:

How we got here: Deri is the only coalition partner that has Netanyahu in his campaign posters. This time around most of the campaign has been devoted to bring-out-the-vote.

Why they could get more: If additional Sephardi voters decide that Aryeh Deri represents them best or that the late Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef still expects them to vote for Shas.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#8-tie Zehut: 5 seats:

How we got here: In 2015 then MK Moshe Feiglin fared poorly in the primary and was placed #36 on the Likud list. Likud activist Shai Malka lost his bid for the #30 young slot to Oren Hazan. They left to establish Zehut.

Why they could get more: Although the great majority of their support is from the right, they have the potential to be the surprise of this election because they are pulling voters from across the spectrum.

Why they could get less: If Feiglin makes a gaffe in the final days.

#11-tie Kulanu: 4 seats:

How we got here: Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon won 10 seats in the 2015 election. He was not able to fulfill most of his campaign promises and is now fighting for his political life.

Why they could get more: If soft-right voters that have left him for Likud or Blue & White return home.

Why they could get less: If additional voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#11-tie Yisrael Beitenu: 4 seats:

How we got here: Avigdor Liberman quit as Defense Minister and exited the government the day after the second-round of municipal elections. After a few weeks with a slim 61-59 majority Netanyahu decided to call early elections. Liberman is now fighting for his political life.

Why they could get more: If FSU immigrants that have left him for Likud or Blue & White return home.

Why they could get less: If additional voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#11-tie Raam-Balad: 4 seats:

How we got here: Following the success of The Joint List in the previous election Raam & Balad took a hard line in negotiations in efforts to maximize the number of slots they would have on the next joint slate. Taal left first and Hadash followed. Raam & Balad hold 8 of the 13 Joint List’s current seats but are now fighting for their political survival.

Why they could get more: If efforts to convince non-Jewish voters that voting for them is necessary or else, they will fall under the threshold.

Why they could get less: If turnout among Raam’s Bedouin sector is lower than expected.

#14 Gesher and others: 0 seats:

How we got here: Orly Levy broke off from Yisrael Beitenu. Early on it appeared like she could be the surprise of the election, but Blue & White stole her thunder.

Why they could get more: In a lower turnout situation Gesher has a decent shot at passing.

Why they could get less: You can’t get less than zero seats. Gesher didn’t pass the electoral threshold in 13 of the last 14 polls.

Right-Religious Bloc: 66

Likud 30 – UTJ 6 – URP 6 – HaYamin HeHadash 6 – Shas 5 – Zehut 5 – Kulanu 4 – Yisrael Beitenu 4

How we got here: Instead of six there are now eight parties in the bloc. For the most part Netanyahu’s core base has remained in Likud and the rest of the bloc have rearranged themselves. Zehut’s support from center-left voters have replaced the voters from the right-religious bloc that have moved to Blue & White.

Why they could get more: If HaYamin HeHadash, Zehut, Kulanu & Yisrael Beitenu pick up undecided voters from Blue & White.

Why they could get less: If Kahlon and/or Liberman fall under the threshold.

Center-Left-Arab Bloc: 54

Blue & White 29 – Labor 9 – Hadash-Taal 7 – Meretz 5 – Raam Balad 4

How we got here: In 2015 there were four parties, but in 2019 there are now five parties that are ruling out joining a Netanyahu Government as part of their campaign. Blue & White has gained some votes from the right-religious bloc, although they have lost many of the soft right votes they had six weeks ago.

Why they could get more: If Center-left Zehut voters decide to move back to their bloc.

Why they could get less: If Raam-Balad falls under the threshold.