Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Framing:

While I typically focus on polling, this post examines current market-implied probabilities on Polymarket. For context, Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where participants trade on real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting collective expectations.

Analysis:

Netanyahu has not crossed 50% since March 16. For an incumbent, remaining below that threshold ahead of any head-to-head consolidation is a notable constraint.

Momentum in the challenger field is shifting. Just two days ago, Bennett stood at 27% and Eisenkot at 18.9%; Bennett has since climbed to 32%, while Eisenkot has declined to 16.9%. The net effect is a clearer consolidation of second place.

Gideon Sa’ar, now aligned with Likud, has edged into fourth place at 2%. This is less a surge than a reflection of the broader field fading. Lapid has not exceeded 5% since December 9; Gantz has never reached 5%; and Lieberman has never crossed 4%.

Notably, Yair Golan sits in 11th place, behind senior ministers Yariv Levin, Israel Katz, and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Why it matters:

Prediction markets aim to aggregate dispersed information into a single price signal. In volatile political environments, especially in the Middle East, this can offer a real-time, probabilistic read that complements, and sometimes challenges, traditional polling and media narratives.

Polymarket Question: “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?”

Current odds:

Benjamin Netanyahu — 42%
Naftali Bennett — 32%
Gadi Eisenkot — 16.9%
Gideon Sa’ar — 2%
Yair Lapid — 2%
Avigdor Lieberman — 2%
Benny Gantz — 1%
Yariv Levin — 1%
Israel Katz — 1%
Itamar Ben-Gvir — 1%
Yair Golan — 1%
Yossi Cohen — 1%
Ayelet Shaked — <1%
Amir Ohana — <1%
Moshe Feiglin — <1%
Yoaz Hendel — <1%
Nir Barkat — <1%

Market Mechanics:
Open date: November 14, 2025 (7:21 PM ET)
Scheduled election: October 27, 2026
Resolution: The market resolves to the individual officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister following the election.
Early election clause: If elections are called early, resolution follows the next sworn-in Prime Minister after that vote.
Requirement: Formal swearing-in is necessary for resolution.
Caretaker PMs: Do not count.
Deadline: If no PM is sworn in by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “Other.”
Sources: Official Government of Israel information, supplemented by consensus credible reporting if needed.

Issue Trends

Five new polls this week show a race that is simultaneously consolidating and fragmenting. The top of the map is stabilizing. The blocs are not.

The prime ministerial matchup remains binary. Across multiple surveys, the race has consolidated into a Netanyahu vs Bennett frame, with Channel 14 uniquely framing an internal Bennett vs Eisenkot dynamic. Everywhere else, Bennett consistently performs best in direct matchups, while Netanyahu continues to lead comfortably against Eisenkot, Lapid and Lieberman. The anti-Netanyahu Lane is narrowing. The consolidation is real.

The economic mood is soft. In the Zman Yisrael poll, 42% say their economic situation has worsened compared to 20% who say it improved. That is a net negative environment heading into a budget deadline month, particularly for a government advancing economic reforms late in its term.

On the October 7 law, there is rare cross-bloc consensus. In the i24 poll, 84% oppose removing the word “massacre” from the legislation, including 73% of coalition voters. In a polarized system, that level of cross-camp alignment stands out.

Bloc Trends

The bloc map remains competitive but structurally fragile. The Bennett bloc ranges from 56–60 seats in three polls and collapses to 42 in the two Netanyahu-leaning surveys (i24 and Channel 14). The Netanyahu bloc ranges from 49–53 in most surveys and surges to 64–65 in i24 and Channel 14.

This divergence is not typical statistical noise. It reflects turnout assumptions, Arab party configuration, and threshold modeling. Small shifts in participation or list alignment generate dramatically different outcomes.

Eyes on the Threshold

The most volatile variable remains the small parties. Several lists consistently hover at or below the 3.25% threshold. The seat math changes dramatically depending on whether one or two of these lists clear the barrier. A single party failing to pass can swing the bloc map by 4–6 seats instantly. The system is currently within margin-of-error distance of multiple wasted-seat scenarios.

What to Watch Next

The budget deadline is looming. The House Committee has decided there will be no plenum next week due to Purim, compressing an already tight legislative calendar. Failure to pass the 2026 budget by April 1 automatically triggers elections on June 30. The draft law remains the hinge issue for Shas and UTJ support. As we enter the decisive month, both the coalition draft bill and the state budget must move through the system simultaneously.

Even if political agreement is reached internally, the inability to manage the legislative clock could independently trigger an election. The countdown, not the polls, remains the dominant variable.

At the same time, opposition leadership consolidation bears watching. In Channel 12, Bennett leads the question of who should head the opposition bloc at 42%, compared to 19% for Eisenkot. If that gap widens, the consolidation dynamic accelerates.

The coalition’s survival still depends more on internal legislative math than public polling, but the electoral battlefield is increasingly defined.

Poll #	Broadcaster / Publisher	Pollster	Date	Sample Size	Margin of Error
1	Maariv	Lazar	Feb 25–26, 2026	501 respondents	±4.4%
2	Channel 12	Midgam	Feb 26, 2026	507 respondents	±4.4%
3	Zman Yisrael	Taktika	Feb 25–26, 2026	500 respondents	±4.4%
4	i24NEWS	Direct Polls	Feb 18, 2026	535 respondents	±4.2%
5	Channel 14	Filber	Feb 26, 2026	579 respondents	Not provided

Party	Maariv	Channel 12	Zman Yisrael	i24NEWS	Channel 14
Likud (Netanyahu)	25	26	27	34	33
Bennett 2026	20	21	18	14	10
Joint List	14 (or 5+5)	10 (6+4)	11 (6+5 or 14)	14	13
Yashar (Eisenkot)	13	11	12	11	11
Shas (Deri)	8	9	10	10	11
Democrats (Golan)	9	11	9	9	9
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	8	8	10	8	8
Otzma Yehudit	9	10	8	8	8
United Torah Judaism (UTJ)	7	7	8	8	8
Yesh Atid	7	7	7	2.9%	4
Religious Zionism	2.2%	2.6%	0	4	5
Blue & White	2.7%	1.9%	0	2.6%	2.9%
Miluimnikim	1.9%	1.9%	0	2.4%	–

Bloc	Maariv	Channel 12	Zman Yisrael	i24NEWS	Channel 14
Bennett Bloc	60 / 57	58	56	42	42
Netanyahu Bloc	50 / 49	52	53 / 50	64	65
Arab Bloc	10 / 14	10	11 / 14	14	13

Poll	Question	Results
Channel 12	Who should lead the opposition bloc?	Bennett 42% Eisenkot 19% Lieberman 14% Lapid 10% Golan 7% Someone else 4% Don’t Know 4%
Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Bennett	Netanyahu 40% Bennett 36% Neither 19% Don’t Know 5%
Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Eisenkot	Netanyahu 41% Eisenkot 30% Neither 23% Don’t Know 6%
Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Lapid	Netanyahu 42% Neither 30% Lapid 25% Don’t Know 3%
Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Lieberman	Netanyahu 41% Neither 34% Lieberman 21% Don’t Know 4%
Zman Yisrael	Personal economic situation under current government	Worsened 42% Improved 20% No Change 37% No Opinion 2%
i24NEWS	Should the word “Massacre” remain in October 7 law?	Keep wording 84% Remove wording 16%
i24NEWS	Coalition voters	Oppose removal 73% Support removal 17% Don’t Know 10%
i24NEWS	Opposition voters	Oppose removal 96% Support removal 4%

Israeli Political System at a Decision Point: 38 Days Until the 2026 Budget Deadline

If the coalition fails to pass the 2026 State Budget by April 1, Israeli law triggers an automatic election on June 30, four months earlier than scheduled. With 38 days remaining, polling data and coalition math now intersect directly with legislative survival.

Issue Trends

Budget Deadline and Coalition Constraints

The coalition’s immediate hurdle is the Haredi Draft Law. The legislation must pass with sufficient time before April 1 to secure the support of Shas and at least part of United Torah Judaism for the budget vote. If the draft bill passes, the budget likely passes. If the draft bill stalls, the budget becomes highly uncertain. The countdown is not symbolic. It is structural.

Leadership Consolidation

Across multiple polls, the prime ministerial matchup has consolidated into a two-person frame. Bennett remains the clear alternative to Netanyahu, with other opposition figures structurally squeezed out. The race operates within a binary structure.

Issue Environment

Two dominant voter patterns: Security: ~40% overall priority; over 50% among coalition voters. The Trust Gap: A persistent credibility deficit around October 7 framing. The trust gap is not collapsing the coalition, but it continues to cap its expansion potential.

Bloc Trends

The bloc map is stable, but competitive. Across five recent polls: The Bennett-aligned bloc is in the mid-to-high 50s, peaking at 60. The Netanyahu bloc is 50–52 in four polls. The outlier is Filber with 65.

The structural battleground centers on three variables: Turnout asymmetry. Arab party configuration (unified vs. split). Threshold survival or mergers among smaller lists. Small shifts in any of these variables could reverse the bloc advantage.

Eyes on the Threshold

Several parties consistently poll below the 3.25% electoral threshold. If one party crosses, it could shift 3–5 seats between blocs. If multiple parties fail, wasted votes could reshape the entire map, as seen in 2022. In this environment, survival is not marginal. It is determinative.

What to Watch Next

The primary development outside the Knesset shaping the next 38 days is narrative dominance. Which frame defines the campaign? Security, Cost of Living, Leadership fatigue. Security currently leads, but compressed timelines amplify volatility.

The clock is legislative. The polls are structural. The next month determines whether this becomes a budget crisis or an election campaign.

Poll	Broadcaster / Publisher	Pollster	Date	Sample Size	Margin of Error
Poll 1	Maariv	Lazar	Feb 18–19, 2026	501	4.4%
Poll 2	Channel 12	Midgam	Feb 19, 2026	501	4.4%
Poll 3	Zman Israel	Taktika	Feb 18–19, 2026	500	4.4%
Poll 4	Channel 13	Maagar Mochot	Feb 17, 2026	Not Published	Not Published
Poll 5	Channel 14	Filber	Feb 19, 2026	1,024	Not Published

Party	Maariv	Channel 12	Zman Yisrael	Channel 13	Channel 14
Likud (Netanyahu)	26	27	27	25	34
Bennett 2026	20	20	18	22	11
Joint List (or Raamq)	10 (5+5)	12	11 (6+5)	15	13
Shas (Deri)	8	9	10	10	10
Democrats (Golan)	11	10	9	7	9
Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman)	8	9	10	8	8
Yashar (Eisenkot)	13	10	9	9	9
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	9	9	7	8	8
United Torah Judaism	7	7	8	7	9
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	8	7	7	9	5
Blue & White (Gantz)	2.9%	2.9%	4	1.6%	2.1%
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	2.6%	2.8%	0%	2.4%	4
Miluimnikim (Hendel)	1.3%	1.6%	0%	1.3%	–
–	–	–	–	–	–
Bennett Bloc	60	58 / 56	57 / 56	55	42
Netanyahu Bloc	50	52	52 / 51	50	65
Arab Bloc	10	10 / 12	11 / 13	15	13

Question	Poll	Results
Use full legal force against violent protests?	Maariv	Yes 69%, No 17%, Don’t Know 14%
Netanyahu vs Bennett	Channel 12	Netanyahu 43%, Bennett 35%, Neither 18%, Don’t Know 4%
Netanyahu vs Eisenkot	Channel 12	Netanyahu 45%, Eisenkot 28%, Neither 23%, Don’t Know 4%
Netanyahu vs Lieberman	Channel 12	Netanyahu 44%, Neither 31%, Lieberman 21%, Don’t Know 4%
Netanyahu vs Lapid	Channel 12	Netanyahu 47%, Neither 29%, Lapid 21%, Don’t Know 3%
Most suitable for PM	Channel 14	Netanyahu 52%, Bennett 21%, Eisenkot 16%, Lapid 5%, Lieberman 4%, Gantz 2%
Main issue influencing vote	Channel 12	Security 40%, Cost of Living 32%, Netanyahu tenure 19%, Don’t Know 9%
Coalition voters issue	Channel 12	Security 53%, Cost of Living 29%, Don’t Know 10%, Netanyahu tenure 8%
Opposition voters issue	Channel 12	Security 32%, Netanyahu tenure 32%, Cost of Living 31%, Don’t Know 5%
Remove the word “massacre” from October 7 memorial law?	Channel 13	No 72%, Yes 10%, Don’t Know 18%

Issue Trends

Across all five polls, Bennett emerges as the clear alternative in the prime minister matchup landscape. In every head-to-head pairing tested, whether against Netanyahu alone or in multi-candidate suitability questions, Bennett consistently places second and well ahead of other opposition figures. Against Netanyahu, he is competitive in direct matchups (often within single digits), and in broader “who is most suitable” questions he is the only opposition figure consolidating meaningful support. No other contender consistently clears the low-to-mid 30s.

At the same time, public distrust surrounding October 7 remains structurally significant. Majorities or pluralities in multiple polls say they do not believe Netanyahu’s version of events leading to October 7. Separate questions about documents submitted to the State Comptroller show similar skepticism. On responsibility, large majorities assign blame to senior security officials, but 63% in one poll also assign responsibility to Netanyahu himself.

On the draft law, a majority (52% in Channel 12) believe its primary purpose is preserving the government rather than drafting Haredim, a politically sensitive finding given the coalition arithmetic.

Among Religious Zionist voters specifically, Smotrich’s party is split evenly: 46% say it represents them; 46% say it does not. That is not consolidation, it is fragmentation.

Taken together: Bennett consolidates the alternative lane, while trust deficits and governance questions remain live issues for the prime minister.

Bloc Trends

The Bennett Bloc remains ahead in most polls. The key variable is Arab party configuration. When Arab parties are modeled as unified, the Arab Bloc reaches double digits and reshapes the math. Bloc totals show the difference between when the parties are united vs separate. When modeled separately, totals shift, tightening the race. Across four of five polls, however, the Bennett-aligned bloc clusters above the Netanyahu Bloc. Only one poll (Filber) shows a decisive Netanyahu Bloc advantage.

Eyes on the Threshold

Threshold volatility remains one of the most consequential moving parts in the bloc math. In the week of Hendel’s party primaries, the party failed to cross the electoral threshold in every poll. Equally notable: the party did not publicly release how many members registered to participate in the primaries, a data point typically used to signal momentum. The absence of both polling viability and organizational transparency raises real questions about its viability.

What to Expect Next

The deadline to pass the state budget is now 46 days away. If the budget is not approved, Israeli law mandates an automatic election for June 30. That ticking clock now overlays the polling environment. Any instability within the coalition, particularly around the draft law or budget committee meetings, could move from theoretical to procedural very quickly. The next six weeks will determine whether this remains a polling story or becomes an election calendar story.

Poll #	Broadcaster / Publisher	Pollster	Dates	Sample Size	Margin of Error
1	Maariv	Lazar / Panels	Feb 11–12, 2026	593	4%
2	Channel 12	Midgam	Feb 12, 2026	508	4.4%
3	Israel Hayom	Kantar	Feb 11, 2026	605	4%
4	Zman Israel	Tatika	Feb 11–12, 2026	500	4.4%
5	Channel 14	Filber	Feb 12, 2026	532	Not Reported

Party	Maariv	Channel 12	Yisrael Hayom	Zman Yisrael	Channel 14
Likud (Netanyahu)	25	25	26	27	35
Bennett 2026	21	20	20	19	10
Joint List	10 (5+5+2%)	12	13	15	13
Yashar (Eisenkot)	12	11	10	8	8
Democrats (Golan)	9	11	9	8	10
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	9	9	9	10	8
Shas (Deri)	8	9	9	10	10
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	10	9	10	7	7
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	9	7	7	8	5
United Torah Judaism	7	7	7	8	9
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	2.5%	2.7%	2.7%	0	5
Blue & White (Gantz)	2.5%	1.9%	2.9%	0	2.5%
Miluimnikim (Hendel)	2.3%	2.0%	1.9%	0	–
Bennett Bloc	60	58 / 59	55 / 57	53 / 56	41
Netanyahu Bloc	50	50 / 51	52 / 53	52 / 53	66
Arab Bloc	10	12 / 10	13 / 10	15 / 11	13

Poll	Question	Results
Maariv	Netanyahu vs Bennett	Netanyahu 41%, Bennett 40%, Don’t Know 19%
Maariv	Netanyahu vs Eisenkot	Netanyahu 42%, Eisenkot 38%, Don’t Know 20%
Maariv	Netanyahu vs Lieberman	Netanyahu 46%, Lieberman 30%, Don’t Know 24%
Maariv	Netanyahu vs Lapid	Netanyahu 47%, Lapid 30%, Don’t Know 23%
Maariv	Believe Netanyahu’s Version on Events Leading to Oct 7	Do Not Believe 47%, Believe 28%, Don’t Know 25%
Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Bennett	Netanyahu 38%, Bennett 35%, Neither 24%, Don’t Know 3%
Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Lieberman	Netanyahu 39%, Lieberman 22%, Neither 35%, Don’t Know 4%
Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Eisenkot	Netanyahu 40%, Eisenkot 30%, Don’t Know 30%
Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Lapid	Netanyahu 41%, Lapid 24%, Neither 33%, Don’t Know 2%
Channel 12	Believe Opposition Claim Regarding Edited Oct 7 Document	Believe Opposition 47%, Believe Netanyahu 32%, Don’t Know 21%
Channel 12	Purpose of Draft Law	Preserve Government 52%, Draft Haredim 35%, Don’t Know 13%
Channel 12	What Will Happen to Hamas?	Not Disarmed 47%, Partially Disarmed 28%, Fully Disarmed 12%, Don’t Know 13%
Yisrael Hayom	Convinced by Netanyahu’s Explanation to State Comptroller	Not Convinced 59%, Convinced 27%, Don’t Know 14%
Yisrael Hayom	Responsibility for October 7	Halevi 76%; Ronen Bar 75%; Barnea 60%; Gallant 68%; Netanyahu 63%
Yisrael Hayom	Does Religious Zionism (Smotrich) Represent Religious Zionists?	Yes 46%, No 46%, Don’t Know 8%
Zman Yisrael	Believe Netanyahu’s Version on Pre–Oct 7 Events	Do Not Believe 51%, Believe 39%, Don’t Know 10%
Channel 14	Suitability for Prime Minister	Netanyahu 57%, Bennett 19%, Eisenkot 13%, Lapid 5%, Lieberman 4%, Gantz 2%