Issue Trends
Several indicators this week are worth treating as directional rather than just another data point.
The Qatar-ties question is widening the credibility gap. In the Channel 12 poll, 56% say they do not believe Netanyahu when he claims he knew nothing about ties between people in his office and Qatar. Only 30% believe him, while 14% don’t know. This is a clear majority finding, suggesting the story is landing less as partisan noise and more as a question of trust and competence.
The war “win” question remains net-negative. In the same poll, 54% say Israel has not defeated Hamas, compared to 29% who believe it has, and 17% who are unsure. Taken together, the picture is one of low trust and low victory clarity, a combination that tends to sustain political volatility rather than resolve it.
The Joint Arab List is being polled as though unity were already settled, even though it isn’t. Poll 3B shows a unified Joint List at 16 seats, while Poll 3A, the split scenario, totals only 11 across the Arab parties. That five-seat swing is substantial, and it is being tested despite the absence of any agreement on leadership or seat allocation among the four factions.
Bloc Trends
The Netanyahu Bloc leads only in the Channel 14 (Filber) poll. Across all other surveys, the Bennett Bloc holds the advantage. Notably, a unified Arab list compresses the overall map, reducing seat totals for both major blocs by consolidating representation.
Eyes on the Threshold
Gantz and Hendel fail to cross the threshold in every poll this week. Smotrich manages to clear it in only one.
What to Expect Next
Election timing preferences remain divided. In the Maariv poll, 49% prefer elections on schedule (end of October 2026), while 39% want elections as early as possible (May–June).
Calendar mechanics matter as we enter February. The current scheduled election date is 27 October 2026, now less than nine months away. However, if the government fails to pass the 2025 budget by March 31, 2026, the Knesset will automatically dissolve, pushing elections into 30 June 2026, roughly four months early. May is the fastest imaginable scenario but remains highly unlikely.
| Poll # | Broadcaster/Publisher | Pollster | Fieldwork Date | Sample Size | Margin of Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maariv | Lazar / Panels | Jan 28–29, 2026 | 503 | ±4.4% |
| 2 | Channel 12 | Midgam | Jan 29, 2026 | 501 | ±4.4% |
| 3A | Zman Yisrael (No Joint List) | Tatika | Jan 28–29, 2026 | 500 | ±4.4% |
| 3B | Zman Yisrael (Joint List scenario) | Tatika | Jan 28–29, 2026 | 500 | ±4.4% |
| 4 | Channel 14 | Filber | Jan 29, 2026 | 952 | N/A |
| Party | Maariv | Channel 12 | Zman Yisrael A | Zman Yisrael B | Channel 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud (Netanyahu) | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 34 |
| Bennett 2026 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 12 |
| Joint List | 13 | 12 | — | 16 | 13 |
| Democrats (Golan) | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman) | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Shas (Deri) | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Yashar (Eisenkot) | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| United Torah Judaism | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Yesh Atid (Lapid) | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| Ra’am (Abbas) | — | — | 6 | — | — |
| Hadash-Ta’al | — | — | 5 | — | — |
| Balad | — | — | 0 | — | — |
| Blue & White (Gantz) | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0 | 0 | 3% |
| Miluimnikim (Hendel) | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0 | 0 | — |
| Religious Zionism (Smotrich) | 1.8% | 2.9% | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Bennett Bloc | 57 | 57 | 56 | 53 | 43 |
| Netanyahu Bloc | 50 | 51 | 53 | 51 | 64 |
| Arab Bloc | 13 | 12 | 11 | 16 | 13 |
| Poll | Question | Results |
|---|---|---|
| Maariv | When should Knesset elections be held? | On time (end of Oct 2026): 49% | As early as possible (May–Jun): 39% | Don’t know: 12% |
| Channel 12 | PM suitability: Netanyahu vs Bennett 2026 | Netanyahu: 42% | Bennett 2026: 33% | Don’t Know/Other: 25% |
| Channel 12 | PM suitability: Netanyahu vs Lapid | Netanyahu: 44% | Don’t Know/Other: 32% | Lapid: 24% |
| Channel 12 | PM suitability: Netanyahu vs Eisenkot | Netanyahu: 43% | Don’t Know/Other: 29% | Eisenkot: 28% |
| Channel 12 | Did Netanyahu know about the ties between people in his office and Qatar? | Do not believe him: 56% | Believe him: 30% | Don’t know: 14% |
| Channel 12 | Has Israel defeated Hamas? | No: 54% | Yes: 29% | Don’t know: 17% |
| Channel 14 | PM suitability (multi-candidate) | Netanyahu: 52% | Bennett 2026: 23% | Eisenkot: 12% | Lapid: 5% | Liberman: 5% | Gantz: 3% |

