Tag Archive: Israeli Knesset


Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of over 501 people with a 4% margin of error that was broadcast on June 21 2019 by 103 FM Radio.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
10 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
08 [08] Shas (Deri)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
04 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

00 [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [00] Zehut (Feiglin)

60 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (PM candidate is Netanyahu)
52 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out Netanyahu as PM)
08 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Liberman)

Additional Question:

Likud voters: Have Netanyahu’s recent statements influenced your decision to keep voting for Likud?

74% No change in my vote, 19% Don’t know/No Opinion, 5% My desire to vote for Likud has increased, 2% I will no longer vote for Likud

Who should lead Likud after Netanyahu?

General Public: 27% Saar, 20% Don’t know, 19% Edelstein, 19% Katz, 13% Shaked, 2% Erdan

Likud Voters: 33% Saar, 29% Katz, 16% Edelstein, 10% Shaked, 6% Erdan, 6% Don’t know

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of over 2000 people that was broadcast on June 14 2019 by 103 FM Radio.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
04 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

00 [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [00] Zehut (Feiglin)

68 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
52 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Note: There was an Ashkenazi-led Blue & White scenario poll that was broadcast as well where Blue & White did slightly better than with Gantz.

Panels conducted a poll that was published on June 7 2019 by Maariv.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [06] Labor (Gabbai)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

2.4% [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
2.2% [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Less than 2%

00 [00] Zehut (Feiglin)

71 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
49 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremyAvearge6-Poll-AVGApril Results
1stLikud+KulanuNetanyahu3635.439
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz3433.535
3rdYisrael BeitenuLiberman885
4thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman87.58
5thShasDeri778
6thHadash-TaalOdeh76.36
7thUnited Right ListPeretz55.25
8thMeretzZandberg55.24
9thHaYamin HeHadashBennett54.70
10thLaborGabbai54.36
11thRaam-BaladAbbas02.94
12thZehutFeiglin000
13thGesherLevy000
Right-Religious Bloc6967.865
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5152.255

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 6 polls that were released from May 27 to June 3 (2 Panels, 2 Direct Polls, 1 Maagar Mochot, 1 Panel Project HaMidgam, 0 Smith, 0 Teleseker & 0 Midgam).

Note #3: The right-religious bloc is polling at a high of 72 and a low of 66. The center-left-Arab bloc is polling at a high of 54 and a low of 48.

Note #4: Kulanu has merged into the Likud. Labor did not pass in one poll poll. HaYamin HeHadash, Zehut & Gesher were not polled in one of the polls.

Below is a summary of each poll/prediction that was released before the polling blackout from April 6-April 9 2019. For the third consecutive election cycle the KnessetJeremy model was more accurate than any of the final polls that were released to the public.

Party/PollsterActual ResultsKnessetJeremySmithDirect PollsMidgam 
Blue & White3529292930 
Likud3530273126 
Shas85665 
United Torah Judaism86777 
Hadash-Taal67777 
Labor699711 
Yisrael Beitenu54444 
United Right List56665 
Meretz45565 
Kulanu44505 
Raam-Balad44444 
HaYamin HeHadash06676 
Zehut05565 
Gesher00000 
PlaceActual Results1st2nd3rd4th 
Right-Religious Bloc6566666763 
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5554545357 
       
Party/PollsterActual ResultsProjectTelesekerPanelsMaagar MochotMiskar
Blue & White352830303128
Likud352831292831
Shas854566
United Torah Judaism866676
Hadash-Taal668877
Labor611810910
Yisrael Beitenu540400
United Right List576778
Meretz456675
Kulanu445060
Raam-Balad444404
HaYamin HeHadash066667
Zehut066568
Gesher000000
PlaceActual Results5th6th7th8th9th
Right-Religious Bloc656664626666
Center-Left-Arab Bloc555456585454
       
Party/PollsterKnessetJeremyChangeSmithChangeDirect PollsChange
Blue & White296296296
Likud305278314
Shas536262
United Torah Judaism627171
Hadash-Taal7-17-17-1
Labor9-39-37-1
Yisrael Beitenu414141
United Right List6-16-16-1
Meretz5-15-16-2
Kulanu405-104
Raam-Balad404040
HaYamin HeHadash6-66-67-7
Zehut5-55-56-6
Gesher000000
Off by # of seatsKnessetJeremy34Smith36Direct Polls36
Right-Religious Bloc66-166-167-2
Center-Left-Arab Bloc541541532
       
Party/PollsterMidgamChangeProjectChangeTelesekerChange
Blue & White305287305
Likud269287314
Shas535344
United Torah Judaism716262
Hadash-Taal7-1608-2
Labor11-511-58-2
Yisrael Beitenu414105
United Right List507-26-1
Meretz5-15-16-2
Kulanu5-1405-1
Raam-Balad404040
HaYamin HeHadash6-66-66-6
Zehut5-56-66-6
Gesher000000
Off by # of seatsMidgam38Project40Teleseker40
Right-Religious Bloc63266-1641
Center-Left-Arab Bloc57-254156-1
       
Party/PollsterPanelsChangeMaagar MochotChangeMiskarOff By
Blue & White305314287
Likud296287314
Shas536262
United Torah Judaism627162
Hadash-Taal8-27-17-1
Labor10-49-310-4
Yisrael Beitenu410505
United Right List7-27-28-3
Meretz6-27-35-1
Kulanu046-204
Raam-Balad400440
HaYamin HeHadash6-66-67-7
Zehut5-56-68-8
Gesher000000
Off by # of seatsPanels42Maagar Mochot46Miskar48
Right-Religious Bloc62366-166-1
Center-Left-Arab Bloc58-3541541

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 525 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was published on June 3 2019 by Yisrael HaYom.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
34 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
05 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
05 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
04 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
04 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

2% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)

Less than 1%

00 [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

67 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

39% Netanyahu, 27% Gantz, 18% Other answers, 5% Liberman, 3% Bennett, 3% Lapid, 3% Ashkenazi, 2% Gabbai

Who is at fault for the early elections?

41% Liberman, 37% Netanyahu, 13% Don’t know, 9% Haredi parties

Note: 96% of Shas voters, 81% URP voters & 72% of Likud voters blame Liberman. 82% of Labor voters, 70% of Yisrael Beitenu voters & 69% of Blue & White voters blame Netanyahu.

Does the decision to go to an early election change your vote?

51% No, 24% Reaffirms my decision to vote the same, 13% Don’t know, 11% Will vote for a different party, 1% I won’t vote at all

What are the chances you vote again in September?

64% For sure, 18% Most likely, 11% Not likely, 7% Likely

Panels conducted a poll of 527 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was published on May 31 2019 by Maariv.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
05 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

1.9% [06] Labor (Gabbai)
1.4% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)

Less than 1%

00 [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

72 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
48 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Scenario Poll: Shaked in Likud, Bennett in URL

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

41 [39] Likud (Netanyahu, Shaked & Kahlon)
34 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [05] United Right List (Bennett, Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)

71 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
49 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Additional Questions:

Are you pleased with the early elections?

65% No, 30% Yes, 5% Don’t know

Note: 82% of Likud voters responded no.

Who is responsible for Israel going to early elections?

46% Liberman, 35% Netanyahu, 12% Haredim, 7% Don’t know

Would you like to see Netanyahu re-elected or someone else?

48% Someone else, 40% Netanyahu, 12% Don’t know

Who should lead Blue & White in the next elections?

51% Don’t know, 42% Gantz, 7% Lapid

Blue & White voters: 82% Gantz, 11% Don’t know, 7% Lapid

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 720 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was conducted on May 30 2019 and broadcast by Channel 13.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
04 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Not polled:

?? [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
?? [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
?? [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

66 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 546 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was conducted on May 30 2019 and broadcast by Channel 11.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
34 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
05 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
05 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
04 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

3.1% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
2.2% [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

66 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Additional Questions:

Do you support early elections?

52% Oppose, 28% Support, 20% Don’t know

Who is responsible for early elections?

43% Liberman, 35% Netanyahu, 11% Haredim, 11% Don’t know

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 532 people with a 4.1% margin of error that was conducted on May 28 2019 and published by Makor Rishon.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [35] Likud (Netanyahu)
33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

2.30% [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
1.67% [04] Kulanu (Kahlon)
1.44% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
0.96% [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

68 [65] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
52 [55] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Tomorrow is Netanyahu’s deadline to present a government. If Israel heads to new elections who is at fault?

46% Liberman, 35% Netanyahu, 17% Haredi parties, 2% No opinion

If the crisis is not resolved what should be done?

50% Call new elections, 45% President should give someone else a chance to form a government, 5% No opinion