Tag Archive: Israeli Knesset


Midgam conducted a poll of 513 people with a margin of error of 4.4% that was published by Walla on October 7 2019. It was conducted between October 3-6.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] Yamina (Shaked)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

  • Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
26 [32] Likud (Saar)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
12 [07] Yamina (Shaked)
10 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Do you support a national unity government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu?

50% No, 42% Yes, 8% Don’t know

Right voters: 54% Yes, 41% No, 5% Don’t know
Center & Left: 68% No, 26% Yes, 6% Don’t know

Who should lead the Likud?

35% Netanyahu, 29% Saar, 20% Don’t know, 8% Other, 5% Edelstein, 2% Erdan, 1% Katz

Right voters: 54% Netanyahu, 24% Saar, 9% Don’t know, 5% Other, 5% Edelstein, 2% Erdan, 1% Katz
Center & Left: 41% Saar, 29% Don’t know, 13% Other, 8% Netanyahu, 6% Edelstein, 2% Katz, 1% Erdan

Phase 2 Update

On September 25th, President Rivlin chose Prime Minister Netanyahu as the first candidate to form Israel’s next government. Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised President Rivlin that he will not try to activate Section 12 of “Basic: Law The Government” which triggered the September Knesset Election.

The first candidate receives 28 days to form a government. The first candidate may ask for an extension and the President may grant him up to 14 days. Additionally, the President can choose to break up the 14 days into separate extensions and force the candidate to keep returning for additional extensions. In any event the first candidate cannot hold on to the mandate for more than 42 days.

The first candidate can choose at any point to hand back the mandate to the President early.

If the first candidate fails or chooses to return the mandate early that leaves the President with three options that he has up to three days to consider:

A) He can grant the mandate to the alternative candidate from the first round of consultations.

B) He can conduct another round of consultations in the hopes that an additional candidate will emerge in addition to the alternative candidate from the first consultations. The first candidate cannot be chosen as the second candidate.

In the event the the second candidate that is appointed in A or B fails to form a government the mandate is then transferred from the President to the Knesset.

C) He can choose to inform the Knesset Speaker that there is no second candidate and the mandate is then transferred from the President to the Knesset .

The Knesset then has two options:

A) For the next 21 days the Knesset may put forth a third candidate to the President by submitting 61 MKs signatures. Any MK can participate.

The President will have two days to process the request.

B) If the Knesset fails to put forth their own candidate that will automatically trigger a snap-election.

The third candidate has 14 days to inform the Speaker & President he has formed a government. The Speaker can delay the vote for an additional seven days if necessary.

In the event the third candidate fails to form a government a snap-election will automatically be triggered.

If all three candidates (or two if the President forfeits his ability to choose a second candidate himself) fail to form a government so a snap-election would take place 84-90 days later on a Tuesday.

Section 43 of “Basic Law: The Government” allows the Knesset in certain circumstances, within five days of the Knesset candidate failing to form a government, to push off the election up to 100 days if necessary.

Five lists arrived at the President’s Residence today for “Day 1”. Six lists arrived today for “Day 2”.

Yesterday, on Day 1, Netanyahu was nominated by Likud (31) & Shas (9). Gantz was nominated by Blue & White (33) and The Joint List (13). Yisrael Beitenu (8) chose not to nominate anyone. After Yisrael Beitenu’s decision not to nominate the Balad Party (3) that is part of The Joint List chose to inform the President that they wish to withdraw their nomination. Rivlin accepted their request.

At the end of Day 1, Gantz had 43 nominations to Netanyahu’s 40 nominations with 11 MKs choosing not to nominate anyone.

Today, on Day 2, Netanyahu was nominated by UTJ (8) & Yamina (7). Gantz was nominated by Labor-Gesher (6) & Democratic Union (5).

At the end of Day 2, Netanyahu has 55 nominations to Gantz’s 54 nominations with 11 MKs choosing not to nominate anyone.

For the first time since Israel abolished the direct PM system there is no candidate with 61 nominations. The President will have to choose who will receive the first mandate to form a new government between the two Prime Ministerial candidates.

President Rivlin has invited both Netanyahu & Gantz to a meeting tonight. Both accepted.

This post includes two tables. The final election results and the Double Envelopes (Absentee Voting).

There are still 14 ballot boxes that have various issues with them but the combined total is not enough to change the seat allocation. Therefore these are the final results but not the official results. The official results must be certified by September 25th so the vote total could change slightly before the results are certified.

President Rivlin received permission from Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer to start the Phase 2 consultations before the Phase 1 results are certified. The Phase 2 consultations will be conducted Sunday and Monday. The President is expected to grant the mandate to form the next government on Monday.

Assuming neither candidate receives 61 nominations the President will still need to choose a candidate to form a government. It will be at his discretion in the event neither candidate reaches 61 nominations, but he must choose one of them. If the first candidate fails so the mandate will be returned to the President. The President can either conduct another round of consultations or grant the mandate to the alternative candidate from the first consultations. If the second candidate the President chooses fails to form a government so the mandate will be transferred from the President to the Knesset. The Knesset may put forth a third candidate to the President for his approval by submitting 61 MKs signatures. In the event the third candidate fails to form a government a snap-election will automatically be triggered and take place 84-90 days later on a Tuesday.

Table 1: Final Results

Eligible VotersTotal VotersTurnoutKosher VotesDisqualified Votes
6,394,0304,458,16769.72%4,430,56627,601
PartyLeaderSeatsPercentageVotes
Blue & WhiteGantz3325.93% 1,148,700
LikudNetanyahu3125.09% 1,111,535
Joint ListOdeh1310.62% 470,611
ShasDeri97.44% 329,834
Yisrael BeitenuLieberman86.99% 309,688
UTJLitzmna86.06% 268,688
YaminaShaked75.88% 260,339
LaborPeretz64.80% 212,529
Democratic UnionHorowitz54.34% 192,261
Under the 3.25% Electoral Threshold    
OtzmaBen Gvir01.88% 83,266
TzometGreen00.33% 14,817
 Other Parties Various 0 Each under 0.15% Each
under
6,000

Table 2: Absentee Votes/Double Envelopes

Total VotersKosher VotesDisqualified Votes
279,412277,2122,200
PartyPercentageVotes
Blue & White30.18% 83,670
Likud27.81% 77,096
Yamina8.85% 24,543
Shas6.29% 17,434
Yisrael Beitenu5.01% 13,879
Democratic Union4.95% 13,711
Labor4.72% 13,074
Joint List4.28% 11,858
UTJ4.17% 11,559
Otzma2.35% 6,520
Other PartiesEach under 0.4%Each under 1,100

This post includes three tables. The election results, the exit poll averages and the accuracy of the exit polls.

The final results including the double envelopes/absentee ballots are expected either tomorrow night or Friday morning. The results must be certified eight days after the election – September 25th.

President Rivlin can ask Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer permission to start the Phase 2 consultations before the Phase 1 results are certified. It is at Meltzer’s discretion to agree or not. In the April election Meltzer allowed Rivlin to carry out his consultations before the results were certified.

Table 1: Final Results before Double Envelopes (Absentee Voting)

PartyLeaderSeatsPercentage Votes
Blue & WhiteGantz3325.66% 1,035,624
LikudNetanyahu3225.03% 1,010,237
Joint ListOdeh1210.72% 432,741
ShasDeri97.57% 305,712
Yisrael BeitenuLieberman87.12% 287,305
UTJLitzmna86.23% 251,645
YaminaShaked75.72% 230,907
LaborPeretz64.81% 194,211
Democratic UnionHorowitz54.30% 173,374
Under the 3.25% Electoral Threshold (Under 6K not listed)    
OtzmaBen Gvir01.87% 75,301
TzometGreen00.34% 13,622

Table 2: Each Exit Poll & Exit Poll AVG

PartyExit Poll AVGChannel 11Channel 13Channel 12
Blue & White33323334
Likud32323133
Joint List12121311
Shas8.7998
Yisrael Beitenu8.71088
UTJ8888
Yamina7768
Labor5.3565
Democratic Union5.3565

Table 3: Accuracy of Exit Poll AVG

PartyExit Poll AVGCurrent ResultsDifference
Blue & White33330
Likud32320
Joint List12120
Shas8.79-0.3
Yisrael Beitenu8.78-0.7
UTJ880
Yamina770
Labor5.36-0.7
Democratic Union5.35-0.07

The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yamina-8-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8

The final Knesset Jeremy Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/16/phase-1-knesset-election-prediction-analysis/

The final Knesset Jeremy Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/17/phase-2-nominations-at-presidents-residence-prediction-analysis/

The rest of the schedule: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis

There are three votes that determine the Israeli Prime Minister. The first, or as I call it “Phase 1”, takes place tomorrow – the Knesset election for Israel’s legislative branch. The second, or as I call it “Phase 2”, takes place when the parties that enter the Knesset nominate a Prime Minister candidate at the President’s Residence. The third, or as I call it “Phase 3”, takes place when the person who was handed the mandate to form a coalition government presents his new government for a confidence vote in the Knesset.

In my previous posts I provided my predictions for Phase 1 and Phase 2. In this piece I will present my predictions for Phase 3.

Option #1: 63 MK coalition for Netanyahu: 38 Likud, 9 UTJ, 9 Shas, 7 Yamina

In this scenario all of the parties who nominated Netanyahu join his coalition.

Option #2: 66 MK coalition for Gantz: 35 Blue & White, *8 UTJ, *8 Shas, 6 Yisrael Beitenu, 5 Labor, *4 Democratic Union

This can happen if Gantz is given the mandate first to form a government or if he is given the mandate second. Either way, in this scenario, which takes into account my 3-seat margin of error, Gantz leads a coalition with the Haredim, Yisrael Beitenu and has the ability to either leave out Labor or Meretz if he so desires. The Joint List serves as a placeholder between Phase 2 and Phase 3 so that Gantz can form a government with both Shas & UTJ. In this scenario which is highly unlikely Lapid is able to sit with UTJ and Shas, Yaalon is able to sit with Lieberman and the Democratic Union is somehow able to sit with Yisrael Beitenu, UTJ & Shas.

Option #3: 73 MK National Unity Government with 38 Likud and 35 Blue & White.

There is no need for Yisrael Beitenu. This option needs to overcome to hurdle that Gantz is ruling out joining Netanyahu in the hopes that Netanyahu fails to form a government and Gantz will get the second crack at forming a coalition. This scenario can happen if Gantz gets the mandate first, fails and Netanyahu chooses to bring Blue & White into his government over negotiating with the other parties. In this scenario Netanyahu either remains Prime Minister for the entire term or he agrees to a rotation where he will step down at some point during the term in favor of Gantz. There is also the chance that Netanyahu offers Gantz the choice to replace his natural partners between Phase 2 & Phase 3 in order to pass through Trump’s deal of the century.

Option #4: Mystery MK forms coalition.

If both Netanyahu and Gantz fail to form a coalition the law allows any MK to sign 61 MKs on a nomination paper that he or she hands to the President. In this “wild west” scenario any MK can break with party lines and sign for whichever candidate he or she chooses. This is a scenario that will be the elephant in the room if indeed neither side receives 61 nominations. My model predicts 63 seats, yet with a 3-seat-margin-of-error it is possible we see a 60-60 tie between the nominating blocs which could eventually lead to this scenario. I don’t see this scenario playing out but the fact that it exists will influence the decisionmakers choices in Phase 2.

Prediction:

Option 1 would provide Netanyahu with an ideal coalition of his natural partners, yet he will have little flexibility in such a tight coalition. There would only be three coalition partners, but he would need to concede senior portfolios which could lead to issues within his own party.

Option 2 is a big stretch. UTJ & Shas have ruled out sitting with Lapid. Liberman refuses to sit with Meretz or with Yaalon. Yaalon and Meretz refuse to sit with Liberman. There does not seem to be enough senior portfolios to hand off to everyone. Gantz can’t offer anyone a better deal to defect when everyone would probably receive a better deal from Netanyahu.

Option 3 might provide the most stable government, especially if the Trump Peace Plan is indeed released between Phase 2 and Phase 3. In this scenario Gantz doesn’t need to nominate Netanyahu for Prime Minister. Gantz can fulfill his campaign pledge not to nominate Netanyahu at the President’s Residence and “replace” the right-religious bloc parties who had nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2 in Phase 3 by signing a coalition agreement. Gantz can justify it to his base that he alone can provide the stability needed for an Israeli government that would agree to pursue the Trump Peace Plan. The most difficult issue for Gantz to overcome is that Netanyahu’s legal cases are expected to keep moving forward and he will be the one keeping him in power. In the past Netanyahu has signed coalition deals with parties that have not nominated him in Phase 2. The most recent cases are Ehud Barak’s Labor Party in 2009 and Tzipi Livni’s HaTnuna Party in 2013.

Option 4 is the least likely but might get the most play in the media. If we do get there so there will be a lot of pressure to form a government because if not the country will automatically head to a third election.

The two most likely Phase 3 options are Option 1 or Option 3. It is difficult to predict which option Netanyahu will choose and he might pursue both of them simultaneously. He has done that in the past. The most recent case was in 2016 when Netanyahu negotiated with Herzog’s Zionist Union and Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu in efforts to expand his government. He did so during the April Elections negotiations when he simultaneously negotiated with Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu & with Avi Gabbai’s Labor.

I can’t determine at this time which option, between option 1 and option 3, is more likely but I can determine that the most likely option is that Prime Minister Netanyahu is re-elected in Phase 3.

To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!

The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yamina-8-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8

The final Knesset Jeremy Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/16/phase-1-knesset-election-prediction-analysis/

Last night I posted my Phase 1 Prediction Analysis:

38 Likud

35 Blue & White

11 Joint List

9 UTJ

9 Shas

7 Yamina

6 Yisrael Beitenu

5 Labor

0 (3) Democratic Union

0 (3) Otzma

  • The margin of error is 3 seats.

Today I am posting my Phase 2 Prediction Analysis:

Based on the Phase 1 predictions these are the three most likely scenarios for Phase 2 based on the math. Remember, President Rivlin is on record that if a Prime Minister candidate receives 61 or more nominations in the President’s Residence that he will grant them the chance to form the next government.

#1 Path to a Netanyahu Coalition:

63 nominations for Netanyahu: 38 Likud, 9 UTJ, 9 Shas, 7 Yamina

40 nominations for Gantz: 35 Blue & White, 5 Labor

17 Won’t nominate: 11 Joint List, 6 Yisrael Beitenu

#2 Path to a Gantz Coalition:

61 nominations for Gantz: 35 Blue & White, 11 Joint List, 6 Yisrael Beitenu, 5 Labor, *4 Meretz

59 nominations for Netanyahu: *37 Likud, *8 UTJ, *8 Shas, *6 Yamina

#3 Path to a National Unity (Netanyahu-Gantz) Coalition:

73 nominations: 38 Likud, 35 Blue & White

The 3 possible paths:

Path #1 is the most likely based on my model and indeed the most ideal for the Prime Minister. In this scenario the four lists who have made public commitments to endorse Netanyahu in Phase 2 receive 61+ seats.

Path #2 is less likely. In this scenario has 61 nominations because Democratic Union passes the electoral threshold at the expense of four seats being lost by the right. Additionally, both Yisrael Beitenu & The Joint List nominate Gantz. This is a theoretical scenario that can be taken into account within the margin of error. In this scenario Gantz would need to have UTJ & Shas replace The Joint List in order to actually form a coalition. How would he juggle UTJ & Lapid, Lieberman & Yaalon, Shas & Meretz? Well, as I said this is a less likely scenario.

Path #3 is the least likely. Historically, Presidents have only pursued national unity governments when neither side has a pathway to 61.

Timeline between Phase 1 and 2, and exactly how Phase 2 works:

Tuesday at 10 PM Israel time the voting will end and election will be over. Those who enter the polling station before 10 PM will still be allowed to vote. Each polling station will have a committee of three people, representing three different parties and those three people will tally the votes by hand. The party representatives will text the results to their headquarters so that the Party Leaders know the results before the television journalists. The official results will be entered into the computer and published on the Central Elections Committee website as the night goes on. Exit polls are closed at 8 PM and therefore will not include trends that affect the voting in the closing hours. The media focus will be on the exit polls until the middle of the night when a good percentage of the vote will have been counted.

By the morning we should have most of the votes in and the Phase 1 results should be rather clear. The “double-envelope” votes will not be included in these initial results. These are votes by citizens who voted overseas or in Israeli army bases, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails or polling station committee members. These votes will be counted afterwards in the Knesset itself. Expect a slight shift of a seat-or-two in the final Phase 1 results after the double-envelope votes are counted. This becomes particularly interesting for the parties that are close to the electoral threshold.

The unofficial negotiations that are conducted between Phase 1 and Phase 2 have almost always enabled one of the Prime Minister candidates to reach enough support to get the first crack at forming a government. President Rivlin is expected to meet with the Knesset factions in an unofficial capacity after the election results are clear. It is possible that Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer does not allow Rivlin to hold the consolations until the results are certified which is eight days after the election. The parties visit the President in order of party size. The law does not take the size of a party into account in terms of mandating who the President should select to form the next government. The law requires President Rivlin to sit with each of the newly elected lists before making a decision on who should get the first crack at forming a new government. Rivlin will make an announcement after all of the nominations are in. When the newly elected Knesset will be sworn in we will not yet have a new government at that date, but we should know who will get the first crack at putting together the next government.

Prediction:

Bottom line my prediction is that it will not be in President Rivlin’s hands. Someone is going to get a majority and the most likely candidate is Netanyahu. By law, in the event no one gets 61 seats, Rivlin can determine based on his own considerations “who has the best chance at forming a coalition”. This scenario seems unlikely based on the current projections. In each of the cases where this scenario did occur the President presented the mandate to whoever had the most seats even if that candidate failed to reach 61.

It is still possible that even if Netanyahu is nominated in Phase 2 that he doesn’t reach Phase 3 and that most likely means that Gantz gets a nod to be the second person to try Phase 2, although this option is highly unlikely in the case that Netanyahu gets a minimum of 61 recommendations.

If both Netanyahu and Gantz fail in Phase 2 are we headed to a third election? No. The law does grant a third candidate the chance to form a government if the first two candidates are not able to form a coalition. In this scenario any MK can present 61 MK signatures to the President and will be granted the chance to form a coalition. In this “wild west” scenario any MK can break with party lines and sign for whichever candidate he or she chooses. The President cannot choose the third candidate and he cannot force upon the sides to take upon themselves a national unity government. The rules to each scenario can be found in Basic Law: The Government

The rest of the KnessetJeremy schedule: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!

Phase 1 Prediction Analysis

The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yamina-8-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8/

This is the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2019:

PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremy Prediction ModelChangeLast KnessetJeremy AVG
1stLikudNetanyahu38533
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz35332
3rdThe Joint ListOdeh11011
4thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman918
5thShasDeri927
6thYaminaShaked7-18
7thYisrael BeitenuLiberman6-28
8thLaborPeretz505
9thDemocratic UnionHorwitz0 (3)-55
10thOtzma/OtherBen Gvir0 (3)-33
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM63459
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM51-253
Pushing Unity Government6-28

Few quick notes:

*For those who are wondering: In 2013 my mode had a 2-seat margin of error. In 2015 I had a 1-seat margin of error. In April 2019 I had a 3-seat margin of error. In all three elections there were two “exceptions” that did not meet the margin of error and the rest met the margin of error. This happen because there is usually a major swing where one party receives most of the undecided voters at the last minute that is difficult to project.

Phase 1 Recap:

#1 Likud: 38 seats:

How we got here: It took Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seven elections as Likud’s leader (1996, 1999, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015) to reach his peak of 35 seats. It didn’t matter because he couldn’t form a government and that is why we have repeat elections. Kahlon merged his Kulanu party into the Likud. This time it looks like Likud will gain an extra three seats – mostly from voters who voted for right-wing parties that did not pass the electoral threshold in April and partly from former Kulanu voters.

Why they could get more: If Netanyahu’s decision to repeat his 2015 & 2019A campaign strategy of a last-minute effort to attract right-wing voters from his bloc to Likud is a success. The danger of this approach is that if he succeeds too much, as he did in April, he might send some of his coalition partners under the electoral threshold, which could put his re-election as Prime Minister in jeopardy.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of Likud voters feel that Netanyahu has won and choose to skip the voting booth on their way to the beach or Yamina is able to win back some of the voters that have left for Likud in recent days.

#2 Blue & White: 35 seats:

How we got here: Ahead of the April elections, after years of scenario polls, the “big four” of Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashekenazi joined up to create the latest mega-party that markets itself as an alternative to Netanyahu.  Gantz succeeded where Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in 2009 (28 seats) & Issac Herzog’s Zionist Union (24 seats) failed, as Blue & White won 35 seats in April. Right now it looks like Blue & White will retain their 35 seats.

Why they could get more: If Gantz is able to convince more anti-Netanyahu voters that he is the only alternative to Netanyahu.

Why they could get less: If Labor & Democratic Union voters decide to bolt back to their previous parties because they believe Gantz might take their votes and sit in a coalition government with Netanyahu.

#3 Joint List: 11 seats:

How we got here: The band is back together after splitting in April which led to a drop in seats compared to 2015. Turnout is expected to be higher in the non-Jewish sector this time around which will lead to an extra seat.

Why they could get more: If turnout is higher.

Why they could get less: If turnout is lower.

#4-tie UTJ: 9 seats:

How we got here: Before the April elections Agudat Yisrael agreed to Degel HaTorah’s terms and for the first time the two Ashkenazi parties that make up the faction are running on a 50%-50% slate. This move helped increase turnout among the Lithuanian sector and the party won 8 seats. Overall turnout is expected to be lower this time around and UTJ is expected to maintain their high turnout.

Why they could get more: If the general turnout is even lower than expected so UTJ is in a great spot to win a 10th seat.

Why they could get less: The more likely option is that the overall turnout is surprisingly high. The less likely option is if a larger number of undecided Haredi voters choose to vote for non-Haredi parties.

#4-tie Shas: 9 seats:

How we got here: As usual Shas, like UTJ, is focused on its base and most of the campaign has been devoted to bring-out-the-vote either through emotionally driven campaign videos or their ground game for election day.

Why they could get more: If additional Sephardi voters decide that Aryeh Deri represents them better than anyone else or that the late Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef still expects them to vote for Shas.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#6 Yamina: 7 seats:

How we got here: Naftali Bennett & Ayelet Shaked, the two most popular ministers of the 2015-2019 term in a series of polls before the elections, formed a new party 100 days before the April election but failed to pass the electoral threshold. Bennett handed control of the party over to Shaked who decided to run on a joint ticket with Bayit Yehudi and Tekuma.

Why they could get more: Early polls had the party in double digits and there are many undecided voters who list them as their second option.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#7 Yisrael Beitenu: 6 seats:

How we got here: Avigdor Liberman won 5 seats in the April elections. He nominated Netanyahu for Prime Minister. However, he refused to sign a coalition agreement with him. Instead of allowing Gantz the chance to form a government Liberman chose to support Netanyahu’s initiative for another election. Yisrael Beitenu chose to push for a national unity government and carry the flag of religion and state issues in this election. The initial results led them to double digit numbers. However, after Blue & White decided to champion their causes as well leading to a sharp decline in support. The final average gave them 8 seats and I expect them to lose another 2.

Why they could get more: If Lieberman is able to win back the votes he has lost to Blue & White in recent days.

Why they could get less: If Lieberman can’t stop the bleeding he might start flirting with the electoral threshold.

#8 Labor: 5 Seats:

How we got here: Amir Peretz replaced Avi Gabbai as leader of the historic party that established the country. He will be judged based on his decision to run on a joint ticket with Orly Levy’s Gesher over a joint ticket with Meretz.

Why they could get more: If Blue & White stumble during the stretch run there are many undecided voters on the center-left bloc that name Labor as their second choice.

Why they could get less: If even more voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc or decide to vote for the Democratic Union.

#9 Democratic Union: 0 (3) seats:

How we got here: Tamar Zandberg led Meretz to 4 seats and was ousted in the subsequent primary for Nitzan Horovitz. The new Meretz leader made a deal to run with Ehud Barak’s new party and the green movement which placed Labor MK Stav Shafir at its head. 4 of the top 6 spots are Meretz candidates. Like HaYamin HeHadash (New Right) of the last election the Democratic Union is losing voters at a fast pace to its counterpart in the bloc. The final average has them at 5 and I expect them to keep bleeding votes until they fall under the threshold.

Why they could get more: If the Democratic Union is able to convince undecided center-left voters that they are the only ones that can pull Gantz to the left.

Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.

#10 Otzma: 0 (3) seats:

How we got here: After the disqualification of multiple candidates Itamar Ben Gvir leads a list of relatively unknown candidates on a list that is passing in five of the last seven polls. In April, all of the polls showed both HaYamin HeHadash & Zehut passing the electoral threshold.

Why they could get more: Extremely low turnout.

Why they could get less: If Likud & Yamina are successful in saving more right wing votes from falling under the electoral threshold.

Right-Religious Bloc: 63

Likud 38 – UTJ 9 – Shas 9 – Yamina 7

How we got here: In April there was eight parties in the bloc but that has been reduced to four parties that are expected to pass the threshold. Kulanu and Zehut merged into Likud, HaYamin HeHadash joined the others in the Union of Right Parties and Yisrael Beitenu removed themselves from the bloc. Otzma is not expected to pass.

Why they could get more: If Likud is able to pick up undecided voters who are leaning Yisrael Beitenu.

Why they could get less: If somehow Netanyahu is too successful and Yamina drops under the electoral threshold.

Center-Left-Arab Bloc: 51

Blue & White 35 – Joint List 11 – Labor 5

How we got here: In April there was 5 parties that are ruling out joining a Netanyahu Government as part of their campaign. The Joint List is back however it looks like the Democratic Union might fall under the threshold.

Why they could get more: If Blue & White is able to pick up undecided voters who are leaning Yisrael Beitenu.

Why they could get less: If both Labor & Democratic Union fall under the threshold.

Yisrael Beitenu Bloc: 6

How we got here: Liberman set himself up to be the kingmaker.

Why they could get more: If he is able to win back the seats he has lost in recent days.

Why they could get less: If both Likud and Blue & White keep taking away more votes.

Smith conducted a poll of 650 people with a margin of error of 3.9% that was published by the Jerusalem Post & Maariv on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
05 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

3.1% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
55 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
08 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Note: An earlier Smith poll had been broadcast by Radio 103 FM. The only difference between the two polls is that Labor gained a seat at the expense of Yisrael Beitenu.

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 943 people with a margin of error of 3.2% that was broadcast by Channel 13 on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [08] Shas (Deri)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 33% Don’t know, 31% Gantz

If the Blue & White rotation is cancelled will that increase or decrease the chance you vote for them?

30% Increase, 9% Decrease

Who is showing up to vote at a level of 100% confidence?

87% Otzma, 84% Yamina, 79% Blue & White, 75% Labor, 73% Likud, 70% Yisrael Beitenu,

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/