Tag Archive: poll


Smith conducted a poll of 500 registered Labor members with a 4.5% margin of error that was published by Maariv on April 22 2017. The model took into account age and geographic distribution. Poll was conducted after Margalit joined race with his video.

If Leadership Elections were held today who would you vote for?

(Among people who answered 100% chance they will vote in elections):
28% Peretz, 19% Bar-lev, 19% Gabai, 16% Herzog, 14% Margalit, 4% Don’t know yet

How sure are you that you will vote for the candidate you have chosen from a scale of 1-100?

88.17 Herzog, 85.83 Peretz, 84.61 Margalit, 80.2 Bar-lev, 79.07 Gabai

Percentage of people who answered 100:

50% Peretz, 48% Herzog, 42% Margalit, 36% Bar-lev, 30% Gabai

Notes: There are around 50 thousand members eligible to vote in the election. 74% answered the chance they will vote is above 90%. There are other candidates that were not polled.

Midgam conducted a poll of 503 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 2 on April 22 2017. The poll was taken on April 19-20.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud
24 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [24] Zionist Union
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [05] Meretz

65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Are you pleased with the conduct of Prime Minister Netanyahu?

61% No, 33% Yes, 6% Don’t know

Do you support Kahlon’s plan?

85% Yes, 10% Don’t know, 5% No

Will Kahlon’s plan improve your economic situation?

45% Won’t influence, 41% Will improve, 14% Don’t know

Why is there opposition to Kahlon’s plan from the Likud?

63% Political considerations, 22% Don’t know, 15% Concern for handicap funds

Average has been UPDATED: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Old Dialog conducted a poll of 612 people that was broadcast by Channel 10 on April 4 2017.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [11] Yesh Atid
27 [30] Likud
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Meretz
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [07] Shas
06 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
62 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
58 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Scenario Poll: Saar led Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [11] Yesh Atid
29 [30] Likud – led by Saar
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Meretz
06 [07] Shas
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
62 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
58 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

35% Don’t know or None, 23% Netanyahu, 18% Lapid, 11% Saar, 5% Bennett, 4% Liberman, 4% Herzog

Likud voters: 68% Netanyahu, 13% Saar, 6% Katz, 3% Erdan, 10% Don’t know or None

Panels conducted a poll of 520 people that was published by Walla on March 29 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [11] Yesh Atid
24 [30] Likud
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [24] Zionist Union
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [07] Shas
06 [05] Meretz

64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Does Netanyahu really want to go to elections right now?

67% No, 17% Don’t know, 16% Yes

Which side do you support in the current coalition crisis?

41% Kahlon, 32% Don’t know, 27% Netanyahu

Panels conducted a poll of 572 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was published in parts by both Maariv and the Jerusalem Post on March 24 2017. The poll was conducted on March 18 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [11] Yesh Atid
25 [30] Likud
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [24] Zionist Union
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [07] Shas
06 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [05] Meretz

64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Question for new Yesh Atid voters: Who did the additional 17 seats that voted for Yesh Atid choose in last election?

8 seats are from the Zionst Union, 3 seats are from Kulanu, 2 seats are from Likud and the other 4 seats are divided up between the other lists.

Are you certain that you will vote for the party you chose in this poll?

Average of all parties: 86% Certain, 13% Not certain, 1% Don’t know
Yesh Atid Voters (lowest of all lists): 76% Certain, 23% Not certain, 1% Don’t know

Note: Among those who answered “very certain” the average of all lists was 45%. For Yesh Atid it was just 29%.

The following individuals are now outside the political system and some have declared that they intend to return to it to contend for the leadership of the State of Israel. To what extent, in your opinion, are each of the following personalities suited to be the Prime Minister of Israel?

Sa’ar: 43% Not worthy (23% Not worthy, 20% Not at all worthy) Worthy 39% (27% Worthy, 12% Very worthy), 18% Don’t know
Gantz: 44% Not worthy (21% Not worthy, 23% Not at all worthy) Worthy 37% (25% Worthy, 12% Very worthy), 19% Don’t know
Ashkenazi: 53% Not worthy (25% Not worthy, 28% Not at all worthy) Worthy 30% (22% Worthy, 8% Very worthy), 17% Don’t know
Ya’alon: 53% Not worthy (25% Not worthy, 28% Not at all worthy) Worthy 30% (22% Worthy, 8% Very worthy), 17% Don’t know

Are you pleased or not pleased with how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does his job as Prime Minister?

59% Not Pleased (26% Not Pleased, 33% Not pleased at all), 35% Pleased (26% Pleased, 9% Very pleased), 6% Don’t know

Of the following personalities who is most worthy to be Prime Minister?

29% None, 26% Netanyahu, 15% Lapid, 12% Don’t know, 6% Herzog, 5% Bennett, 4% Kahlon, 3% Liberman

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this week that the fact coalition partners are not respecting coalition agreements and not supporting the closing of the IBC as enough of a reason to go to an election. Do you agree with Netanyahu’s position?

61% No, 21% Yes, 18% Don’t know

Do you think the IBC issue is the real reason behind Netanyahu’s statements or is it a spin to hide the real reasoning?

62% Spin, 27% Don’t know, 11% Real reason

Is the appointment of Geula Even-Sa’ar, Gideon Sa’ar’s wife, to the position of anchor for the main news broadcast of the IBC a worthy or not worthy appointment?

51% Worthy, 26% Don’t know, 23% Not worthy

What do you think should be done with the IBC?

33% Open it on April 30, 31% Don’t know, 20% Don’t open it at all, 16% Open it after replacing the current IBC leadership

Maagar Mochot conducted a scenario poll that included a new Yaalon-led-party that was broadcast by 103 FM Radio on March 22.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [11] Yesh Atid
24 [30] Likud
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
11 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Shas
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [05] Meretz

03 [–-] Yaalon Party (enough for 3 seats, but under 3.25% electoral threshold)

63 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
54 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
03 [–] Yaalon (under threshold)

Do you support or oppose early elections?

55% Oppose early elections, 24% Support early elections, 21% Don’t care

I am listing the parties in order of their performance in the March 17 2015 election from highest to lowest.

Likud:

2015 Election: 30
40 Poll Avg: 25.4 (1st)
Current Avg 23.9 (2nd)
High: 31
Low: 21 (twice)

It took Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu six elections at the helm of Likud to achieve a quarter (30 of 120) of the Knesset’s seats. The most favorable poll of 31 seats came back in 2015. Likud hasn’t received more than 26 seats in the last 12 polls conducted over the past six months.  Although the Likud leads all parties with its overall average of all 40 public polls conducted over the last two years, it has dropped to second place in a majority of polls conducted over the last six months. The good news for Likud is that their numbers have been relatively stable, and the last time they dropped to their lowest score of 21 seats was in late September. The best piece of news for Netanyahu is that his bloc of the current coalition has been able to form the next government in 39 of the 40 polls conducted over the last two years.

Zionist Union:

2015 Election: 24
40 Poll Avg: 13.2 (3rd)
Current Avg: 11 (5th)
High: 20
Low: 8 (3 times)

Herzog’s Zionist Union is one of just two party lists not to poll above their electoral result in any of the 40 public opinion polls of the last two years. Their high of 20 was achieved back in 2015, and the list has been dropping gradually ever since. Although Herzog’s party is in third place among all 40 polls, his list has dropped to 5th place in the current average. The Zionist Union hasn’t received a poll above 13 seats since June and has received single-digit-numbers in five polls since that time. It is remarkable that Herzog might still have a fighting chance in his upcoming Labor primary considering some polls have had his list drop two-thirds of its seats to 6th place in some recent polls.

Joint List:

2015 Election: 13
40 Poll Avg: 12.8 (4th)
Current Avg: 12.7 (3rd)
High: 14 (twice)
Low: 11

The Joint List has been the most consistent. The list has achieved between 11-14 seats in all 40 polls and has produced 12 or 13 seats in 37 of those 40 polls. The Joint List’s next electoral result depends on two factors: their turnout compared to the national average and their ability to maintain the union of the four parties currently on their list.

Yesh Atid:

2015 Election: 11
40 Poll Avg: 21.4 (2nd)
Current Avg: 25.6 (1st)
High: 27 (5 times)
Low: 15

Lapid’s Yesh Atid is the only list not to have one poll drop below their electoral result in any of the 40 public opinion polls of the last two years. Yesh Atid’s lowest showing of 15 seats was back in 2015. Since that point Lapid’s party gradually increased its showing until reaching 27 seats for the first time in September. Lapid would receive 27 seats in five of the nine polls conducted between that point in September until January.  Yesh Atid’s meteoric rise has stopped since it was unable to reach 27 seats in the four polls conducted since, including a showing this month of 22 seats, their lowest since November. Yesh Atid is ranked second among the 40 poll average but has been averaging a first place finish for a majority of the last six months.

Kulanu:

2015 Election: 10
40 Poll Avg: 6.6 (9th)
Current Avg: 6.3  (10th)
High: 9 (3 times)
Low: 4

Kahlon’s Kulanu is one of just two party lists not to poll above their electoral result in any of the 40 public opinion polls of the last two years and is the only current double-digit party to not have even one poll in the double digits.  Kulanu hasn’t polled above 7 seats since July and has gradually dropped down the rankings to 9th place in the average of all 40 polls. Kulanu has dropped to last place among the current average of the polls conducted in 2017. Kahlon’s low of 4 seats is right on the electoral threshold. Kahlon’s party is simply trending down. The silver lining is that pundits are paying more attention to Zionist Union’s collapse.

Bayit Yehudi:

2015 Election: 8
40 Poll Avg: 12.1 (5th)
Current Avg: 12.4 (4th)
High: 16 (twice)
Low: 8

Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi party has been trending gradually upwards since the election and has not received one poll over the last two years that would suggest it would lose any seats. The low point was a poll that suggested it would match its current showing of 8 seats back in May. Bennett’s party has been in double-digits in 36 of the 40 polls conducted since the last election. The high of 16 seats was achieved in two polls during the last summer recess in July and August. Since that point it has been averaging closer to its highest showing than to its lowest showing. Bayit Yehudi has received 13 seats in the last three polls and is currently in fourth place in the average of all 2017 polls.

Shas

2015 Election: 7
40 Poll Avg: 6.6 (8th)
Current Avg: 6.7 (8th)
High: 8 (6 times)
Low: 4 (4 times)

Arye Deri’s Shas is the second most stable party after the Joint List. Shas has received 6 or 7 seats in 30 of the last 40 polls conducted over the last two years. Shas has received its high of 8 seats more frequently than its low of 4 seats, which is on the border of the electoral threshold. The party has not polled at 5 seats during the last two years. Similar to the Joint List, the turnout of their base compared to the national average will determine their outcome in the next election.

Yisrael Beitenu:

2015 Election: 6
40 Poll Avg: 8.4 (6th)
Current Avg: 7.6 (6th)
High: 11
Low: 6

Defense Minister Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu has not received any poll that would translate into a loss of current seats. His high was in May just before he joined Netanyahu’s government, and his low was shortly thereafter in July. Overall the party has been dropping gradually since Liberman entered the government and started to present himself as more statesmanlike, but the decline has not been significant. Yisrael Beitenu remains in sixth place in both the average of all 40 polls and the current average of the 2017 polls.

UTJ:

2015 Election: 6
40 Poll Avg: 7.5 (7th)
Current Avg: 7.4 (7th)
High: 12
Low: 6 (6 times)

Litzman’s UTJ has enjoyed five double-digit polls thanks to Pollster Dagani’s Geocartographia that have been dismissed by the great majority of pundits. I have included them in the average to compensate for polls that have predicted a 6 seat showing for UTJ even in cases of a lower national election turnout. UTJ has received 7 seats in 24 of the 40 polls conducted over the last two years. Similar to the Joint List and Shas, UTJ’s electoral result will depend on the turnout of their base compared to the national turnout.

Meretz:

2015 Election: 5
40 Poll Avg: 6 (10th)
Current Avg:  6.4 (9th)
High: 9
Low: 4

The high of nine seats for Gal-on’s Meretz was the same Geocartographia poll in July that also gave UTJ their high of 12 seats. Meretz’s two showings of 8 seats were also in Geocartographia polls that produced double-digit numbers for UTJ. Meretz has received between 5-7 seats in 36 of the 40 polls conducted over the last two years. Meretz ranks last over those 40 polls and are above only Kulanu in the polls conducted in 2017. Meretz’s Central Committee rejected Gal-on’s motion last week to make Meretz the fourth Israeli party to have a primary election process for all of its members. Instead the Central Committee that includes dozens of family members of Meretz MKs supported Gal-on’s challenger for the leadership, Gilon. To quote Gal-on: “If Meretz will not open itself up, it simply will not exist”.

Current Coalition Bloc:

2015 Election: 67
40 Poll Avg: 66.5
Current Avg: 64.3
High: 72
Low: 60

The best news for Netanyahu is that his current coalition bloc of six lists has received a majority in 39 of the 40 polls conducted since the last election. Among the 40 polls his bloc drops just a half a seat. However, the gradual decline Kulanu has experienced led to an overall 1.7 seat loss for Netanyahu’s bloc among the polls conducted in 2017. The high point of 72 came in August. The low point was the 60-60 tie in the Geocartographia poll in January.

Current Opposition Bloc:

2015 Election: 53
40 Poll Avg: 53.5
Current Avg: 55.7
High: 60
Low: 48

The current opposition bloc of the Zionist Union, Yesh Atid, Meretz and the Joint List have gained an overall half seat in the average of all 40 polls conducted since the election, and that increases to a gain of 1.7 seats over the polls conducted in 2017. Although those numbers might be encouraging for some, they are not sufficient to form a government, and the cooperation of the Joint List for Phase 2 is luke-warm at best. The low point was obviously the six polls where the current coalition received 70 or more seats. The high point was the Geocartographia poll in January that resulted in a 60-60 tie.

 

Note: I am aware it is no longer the weekend, but the crazy week once again forced me to delay my piece to today.

Current KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls:
https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Midgam conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on March 16.

Are you worried that the Pension Funds will not be able to last because the longevity of life for Israeli citizens is increasing?

65% Yes, 24% No, 11% Don’t know

Do you have or your spouse a pension fund?

48% Both of us do, 28% Just me, 9% Just my spouse, 8% Neither, 7% Don’t know

Are your worried that your personal pension fund will not be able to pay you what you deserve?

63% Yes, 27% No, 10% Don’t know

Would you prefer to manage your own pension fund or would you prefer to keep the current system?

43% Keep current system, 38% Manage myself, 19% Don’t know

Are you considering moving your pension fund to funds with lower management rates?

35% Think so, 29% Don’t know, 18% Think not, 10% For sure, 8% For sure not,

Should the state nationalize all pension funds and place all of them under full government ownership?

42% Yes, 30% No, 28% Don’t know

Do you feel calm when you think about your future as an old person in Israel?

44% Don’t know, 34% Not at all, 18% Sort of, 4% Yes

Old Dialog (HaMidgam Project + Stat-Net) conducted a poll that included a new Yaalon-led-party of 755 people that was broadcast by Channel 10 on March 17.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [30] Likud
25 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [05] Meretz
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yaalon Party (2.5%, under the 3.25% electoral threshold)

65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

34%: Decsion not final

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on March 13 2017.

Where would you position Moshe Yaalon on the spectrum of the political map?

41% Right, 23% Center, 19% Don’t know, 17% Left

Would you recommend to Yaalon that he run in his own party or join another party?

55% Join another party, 34% Don’t know, 11% Run by himself

Question for those who suggest he join another party: Who should he join?

32% Yesh Atid, 23% Kulanu, 18% Likud, 16% Zionist Union, 11% Don’t know

How will the inclusion of Moshe Yaalon on a party list influence your decision to vote for a political party in the next elections?

50% Won’t influence, 19% Don’t know, 16% Won’t want to vote for list, 15% Will want to vote for list

Did the State Comptroller Report harm the security standing of Yaalon?

44% Yes, 31% No, 25% Don’t know

What do you think of Yaalon’s conduct during the Elor Azaria Story?

38% Should not have voiced an opinion, 23% Did right thing in voicing his position, 20% Did right thing but should have moderated his position, 19% Don’t know