Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls (Updated September 14th)

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChange41-Poll-AVGApril Results
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz32321.230.835
3rdThe Joint ListOdeh1111.20.510.710
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman88.4-1.29.65
6thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman87.60.27.48
8thDemocratic UnionHorwitz55.1-1.46.54
10thOtzma/OtherBen Gvir32.81.71.10
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM5958.61.856.860
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM5353-0.653.655
Pushing Unity Government88.4-1.29.65

Note #1: The KnessetJeremy Average is based on the last seven polls that were released by Midgam, Smith, Maagar Mochot, Kantar, Panel Project HaMdigam, Panels & Shvakim Panorama. Otzma does not pass the electoral threshold in Smith or Panels but passes in 5 of the 7 polls. In rare statistical circumstances parties can receive 3 seats so I have left the 3-seat result in the average which also allows me to maintain an 120-seat framework.

Note #2: The 41-Poll-Average is based on the last 41 polls that were conducted from July 30th until September 13 (last six weeks): 12 Midgam, 8 Smith, 5 Maagar Mochot, 5 Kantar/Teleseker, 6 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls, 2 Panels & 1 Shvakim Panorama.

Note #3: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election. Zehut resigned and 31 parties remain.

Note #4: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Democratic Union, B) Blue and White & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & Yamina. D) Shas & UTJ. E) Otzma & Noam. The Joint List did not sign with any other list.

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

Final Note: I will post my final prediction based on my model tomorrow. As always the final prediction will be different than the final average because it takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.