Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls (Updated September 14th)
| Place | Party | Leader | Seats | KnessetJeremy AVG | Change | 41-Poll-AVG | April Results |
| 1st | Likud | Netanyahu | 33 | 32.9 | 1.5 | 31.4 | 39 |
| 2nd | Blue & White | Gantz | 32 | 32 | 1.2 | 30.8 | 35 |
| 3rd | The Joint List | Odeh | 11 | 11.2 | 0.5 | 10.7 | 10 |
| 4th | Yamina | Shaked | 8 | 8.3 | -1.5 | 9.8 | 5 |
| 5th | Yisrael Beitenu | Liberman | 8 | 8.4 | -1.2 | 9.6 | 5 |
| 6th | United Torah Judaism | Litzman | 8 | 7.6 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 8 |
| 7th | Shas | Deri | 7 | 7 | -0.1 | 7.1 | 8 |
| 8th | Democratic Union | Horwitz | 5 | 5.1 | -1.4 | 6.5 | 4 |
| 9th | Labor | Peretz | 5 | 4.7 | -0.9 | 5.6 | 6 |
| 10th | Otzma/Other | Ben Gvir | 3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM | 59 | 58.6 | 1.8 | 56.8 | 60 | ||
| Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM | 53 | 53 | -0.6 | 53.6 | 55 | ||
| Pushing Unity Government | 8 | 8.4 | -1.2 | 9.6 | 5 |
Note #1: The KnessetJeremy Average is based on the last seven polls that were released by Midgam, Smith, Maagar Mochot, Kantar, Panel Project HaMdigam, Panels & Shvakim Panorama. Otzma does not pass the electoral threshold in Smith or Panels but passes in 5 of the 7 polls. In rare statistical circumstances parties can receive 3 seats so I have left the 3-seat result in the average which also allows me to maintain an 120-seat framework.
Note #2: The 41-Poll-Average is based on the last 41 polls that were conducted from July 30th until September 13 (last six weeks): 12 Midgam, 8 Smith, 5 Maagar Mochot, 5 Kantar/Teleseker, 6 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls, 2 Panels & 1 Shvakim Panorama.
Note #3: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election. Zehut resigned and 31 parties remain.
Note #4: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Democratic Union, B) Blue and White & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & Yamina. D) Shas & UTJ. E) Otzma & Noam. The Joint List did not sign with any other list.
KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:
https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/
Final Note: I will post my final prediction based on my model tomorrow. As always the final prediction will be different than the final average because it takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Masterful work Jeremy. Thank you
My prediction,
There will be a unity government compromising Likud, Kachol Lavan., Yisroel Batenu, Shass and Labour. Free vote on Charedi enlistment. (85 seats)
Yamina, Otzma, UTJ, Meretz and Arabs in opposition.
personally i disagree, Shas’s opinion in the draft is is basically identical to that of UTJ, plus if otzma passes Netanyahu probably will be able to make a right wing coalition anyways
My prediction: I think the Likud (36) will emerge stronger than the polls have been showing and they will soundly defeat Blue and White (31) by a significant margin.
Gantz wants to govern and exert his influence on policy now. Seeing no realistic hope of leading with Blue and White (and not content to be in the opposition) he splits off, causing the party to crumble.
Gantz and Yaalon then negotiate with Bibi and get top cabinet positions and that leads to coalition of Likud (36), Resilience (13), Telem (4), UTJ (7), Shas (7) and Yamina (8). Lieberman loses his leverage and Yisrael Beiteinu (7) is relegated to the opposition.
I also see Labor failing to cross the threshold, losing a significant number of supporters to the Democratic Union who surprise with 10 mandates.
otzma, at 3 seats in your average, is not over the threshold, which is 4 seats.
wouldn’t it be more meaningful, in keeping with the actual electoral system, to assign them either 4 or 0? or if you want to represent an average of the predictions, show one decimal place, since averages aren’t always round numbers?