Tag Archive: knesset


Direct Polls conducted a poll of 543 people with a 4.2% margin of error for Kan (Channel 11) that was conducted on Feb 16 2019 and broadcast on Feb 17 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
20 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
10 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.2% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
1.0% [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
0.9% [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
0.5% [06] Livni Party
Under 0.5%: [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai), Green Leaf, Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and other

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Midgam conducted a poll of 502 people with a 4.4% margin of error for Channel 12 that was conducted and broadcast on Feb 17 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
18 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
12 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

3.0% [–] Yachad (Eli Yishai) + Otzma (Ben Ari)
2.0% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.8% [06] Livni Party
0.8% [–] Zehut (Feiglin)
Below 1%: Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Scenario Poll: Gantz + Lapid

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid)
31 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

3.0% [–] Yachad (Eli Yishai) + Otzma (Ben Ari)
2.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.4% [–] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.1% [06] Livni Party
Below 1%: Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Additional Question:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

36% Netanyahyu, 31% Gantz, 22% Neither, 11% Don’t know

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 437 people with a 4.3% margin of error for 103 FM radio that was broadcast on Feb 8 2019. The poll was conducted on Feb 15 2019.

Do you want to see Ehud Barak return to the political leadership in the upcoming Knesset elections?

54% No, 34% Don’t care, 12% Yes

Note: The seat results are identical to the seat distribution Maagar Mochot produced for Yisrael HaYom on the same day. I have updated that poll to reflect the numbers without the parties that didn’t cross the threshold.
Those results are here: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/02/14/yisrael-hayom-poll-likud-30-israel-resilience-19-yesh-atid-12-joint-list-9-utj-9/

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday February 16th 2018.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 7 AVGCurrent
1stLikudNetanyahu313103130
2ndIsrael ResilienceGantz2019.8-1.521.30
3rdYesh AtidLapid1211.20.310.911
4thLaborGabbai993.55.518
5thHaYamin HeHadashBennett87.80.67.23
6thUTJLitzman87.516.56
7thJoint ListOdeh76.5-0.16.612
8thTaalTibi76.20.65.61
9thShasDeri55.20.34.97
10thMeretzZandberg55.20.44.85
11thKulanuKahlon43.8-0.34.110
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman43.5-0.545
13thGesherLevy02021
14thOtherOthers01.3-0.41.70
15thBayit YehudiPeretz00-3.73.75
16thLivniLivni00-0.20.26
Right-Religious6060-2.962.966
Center-Left-Arab60602.957.154

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on four polls that were released from Feb 12-14 (1 Panel Project HaMidgam, 1 Direct Polls, 1 Maagar Mochot and 1 Midgam).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: The official candidate lists will be submitted this coming week on Wed Feb 20 & Thurs Feb 21 2019.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 735 people with a 3.5% margin of error for Kan (Channel 11) that was broadcast by Reshet Bet Radio on Feb 14 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
20 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.5% [03] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
2.4% [02] Tekuma (Smotrich)
2.3% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.1% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.8% [06] Livni Party
1.3% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
0.4% [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
0.3% [–] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
Under 0.3% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai), Green Leaf, Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and other

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Scenario Poll #1 : Gantz+Lapid, Bayit Yehudi+Tekuma+Otzma+Yachad

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
29 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich) + Otzma (Ben Ari) + Otzma (Ben Ari)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
00 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)

65 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
55 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Scenario Poll #2: Gantz+Yaalon+Levy

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
22 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Gesher (Levy)
11 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Tekuma (Smotrich) + Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) 
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
00 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Where would you place Gantz on the political map?

26% Left-Center, 26% Center, 22% Left, 17% Center-Right, 5% Don’t know 4% Right

Should Gantz join a Netanyahu coalition if invited and offered the Defense Ministry or should he sit in the opposition?

55% Opposition, 24% Defense Ministry, 21% Don’t know

Note: I will update the post when the complete numbers for the second scenario poll comes in.

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 604 people with a 4% margin of error for Yisrael HaYom & I24 News that was published on Feb 14 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
19 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
12 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

56 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
64 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz

Distribution of seats without electoral threshold:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
16 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [01] Taal (Tibi)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under the 3.25% electoral threshold:

03 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
03 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
03 [–-] Otzma (Marzel)
02 [02] Tekuma (Smotrich)
01 [06] Livni Party
01 [03] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
01 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
01 [–-] Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others are all under 3.25% threshold.

49+13=62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56+02=58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Scenario Poll: Gantz + Lapid, Labor + Meretz, Bayit Yehudi+Tekuma+Otzma

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid)
28 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
12 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
11 [05] Otzma (Marzel) + Tekuma (Smotrich) + Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
09 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked) 
05 [01] Taal (Tibi) 
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz

Distribution of seats without electoral threshold:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid)
26 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
11 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
10 [05] Otzma (Marzel) + Tekuma (Smotrich) + Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
08 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [01] Taal (Tibi)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under the 3.25% electoral threshold:

03 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
03 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
03 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
01 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [–-] Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others are all under 3.25% threshold.

57+07=64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
53+03=56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who should lead center-left bloc?

44% None, 27% Gantz, 12% Lapid, 5% Gabbai, 4% Barak, 4% Livni, 4% Zandberg

Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

33% Netanyahu, 25% Other answers, 21% Gantz, 10% Lapid, 6% Bennett, 3% Liberman, 2% Gabbai

What government should be formed after elections?

39% Right, 22% National Unity Government (Netanyahu & Gantz), 21% Left government, 19% Other answers

Will the 2019 elections be decisive for Israel’s future?

56% Yes, 26% In the middle, 18% No

Maagar Mochot conducted an internal scenario poll series for religious Zionist Rabbis

Scenario #1: BY & NU run alone.

2-3 seats Bayit Yehudi
1-2 seats National Union-Tekuma

(Neither passes the threshold)

Scenario #2: By & NU run together

4 seats Bayit Yehudi+National Union-Tekuma

Scenario #3: BY+NU+Otzma run together

8 seats Bayit Yehudi+National Union-Tekuma+Otzma

Scenario #4: NU+Otzma+Yachad

8-9 seats National Union-Tekuma+Oztma+Yachad

Scenario #5: BY+NU+Yachad+Zehut+Otzma

12 seats Bayit Yehudi+National Union-Tekuma+Otzma+Yachad+Zehut

Key:

Bayit Yehudi is led by Rabbi Rafi Peretz.
Tekuma is led by Betzalel Smotrich.
Otzma is led by Michael Ben Ari.
Yachad is led by Eli Yishai.
Zehut is led by Moshe Feiglin.

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 517 people with a 4.3% margin of error for 103 FM radio that was broadcast on Feb 8 2019. The poll was conducted on Feb 7 2019.

In a post-Netanyahu world who should lead the Likud?

31% Don’t know, 25% Edelstein, 20% Saar, 16% Y. Katz, 4% Erdan, 4% Regev

Among Likud voters: 30% Saar, 21% Y. Katz, 20% Don’t know, 19% Edelstein, 5% Erdan, 5% Regev

Note: The seat results are identical to the seat distribution Maagar Mochot produced for Yisrael HaYom on the same day. I have updated that poll to reflect the numbers without the parties that didn’t cross the threshold.
https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/02/09/yisrael-hayom-poll-likud-29-israel-resilience-17-yesh-atid-11-joint-list-9-utj-7/

Midgam conducted a poll with a 4.4% margin of error for the Labor Party that was leaked on Feb 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
19 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

1.1% [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
1.0% [06] Livni Party
Under 1% [–] Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Otzma (Ben Ari), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Panel HaMidgam Project conducted a poll of 601 people with a 3.7% margin of error for Channel 13 that was broadcast on Feb 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
21 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under electoral threshold:

2.2% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.8% [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
1.2% [06] Livni Party
under 1% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari), Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Scenario Poll: Labor + Meretz

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
21 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
14 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
10 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 18% Dpm’t know