Tag Archive: israeli poll


Kantar conducted a poll of 559 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on December 15 2019. The poll was conducted on Dec 15.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
53 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
27 [32] Likud (Saar)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

For Right voters:
Do you support taking apart the right wing bloc after the elections?

52% No, 32% Don’t know, 16% Yes

Should Gantz have formed a government with the Joint List to avoid elections?

54% Yes, 28% No, 18% Don’t know

Smith conducted a poll of 700 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was published by Maariv on December 14 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
12 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz + Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Note: This is the first poll since the September elections where the right-religious bloc received more seats than the center-left-arab bloc. The reasoning is that the United Right List & Otzma were polled together as a single united list in this poll.

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Yisrael Hayom on December 13 2019. The poll was conducted on Dec 12 after the new election was triggered.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
1% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

61 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
51 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Saar)
15 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
11 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
2% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

42% Netanyahu, 40% Gantz, 18% Don’t know

If Saar led the Likud who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

36% Gantz, 33% Don’t know, 31% Saar

Who is most to blame for the third elections?

43% Netanyahu, 30% Lieberman, 14% Don’t know, 6% Lapid, 5% Gantz, 2% Haredim

What government do you want to see?

30% Unity, 20% Right, 19% Large Unity w/Right Bloc + Blue & White, 16% Don’t know, 15% Center-Left government

If elections were today would you go out and vote?

59% Yes, 23% Probably, 15% No, 3% Maybe

Does the third election make you reconsider your vote from last time?

60% No, 27% Maybe, 13% Yes

PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremy Average (20 Polls)Current Seats
1stBlue & WhiteGantz34.533
2ndLikud Netanyahu32.832
3rdJoint List Odeh12.813
4thYisrael BeitenuLieberman88
5thShas Deri7.959
6thUTJLitzman7.37
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett5.953
8thLaborA. Peretz4.956
9thDemocratic UnionHorowitz4.555
10thUnited Right ListR. Peretz1.24
11thOtzmaBen Gvir00
xBloc KnessetJeremy Average (20 Polls) Current Seats x
xCenter-Left-Arab57.157
xRight-Religious54.955
xLieberman88

Note #1: The KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 20 polls that were released by Midgam (6), Maagar Mochot (6), Panel Project HaMdigam (4), Kantar (2), Smith (1), & Panels (1). The first poll was Oct 7 and the last poll was Dec 10. 3 polls were conducted in October, 12 polls were conducted in November & 5 polls were conducted in December.

Note #2: Otzma did not pass the electoral threshold in any of the polls. United Right List (Bayit Yehudi+Tekuma/National Union) did not pass the electoral threshold in nine polls and their results were calculated as zero seats to allow me to maintain an 120-seat framework for the blocs. In five polls that polled the Yamina alliance together. That means the party-by-party results are different than the bloc results as a result.

Note #3: The first poll conducted after the election was triggered is not included in the above average but can be found at this link: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/12/12/1st-poll-of-2020-election-blue-white-35-likud-32-joint-list-13-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8-shas-8-hayamin-hehadash-6/

Midgam conducted a poll of 513 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on December 12 2019. The poll was conducted on Dec 12 after the new election was triggered.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.8% [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
1.3% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
54 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
26 [32] Likud (Saar)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

38% Netanyahu, 37% Gantz, 19% Neither, 6% Don’t know

Right: 62% Netanyahu, 18% Neither, 17% Gantz, 3% Don’t know
Center-Left: 70% Gantz, 19% Neither, 6% Netanyahu, 5% Don’t know

If Saar led the Likud who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

36% Gantz, 30% Neither, 22% Saar, 12% Don’t know

Right: 36% Neither, 35% Saar, 16% Gantz, 13% Don’t know
Center-Left: 66% Gantz, 18% Neither, 9% Don’t know, 7% Saar

Who is most to blame for the third elections?

39% Netanyahu, 29% Lieberman, 16% All 3 equally, 9% Gantz, 7% Don’t know

Right: 43% Lieberman, 23% All 3 equally, 23% Netanyahu, 7% Gantz, 4% Don’t know
Center-Left: 64% Netanyahu, 15% All 3 equally, 9% Liebrman, 7% Don’t know, 5% Gantz

Post-indictment can Netanyahu still serve as Prime Minister?

56% No, 37% Yes, 7% Don’t know

Right: 58% Yes, 36% No, 6% Don’t know
Center-Left: 88% No, 9% Yes, 3% Don’t know

If elections were today would you go out and vote?

61% Yes

Right: 61%
Center-Left: 62%

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 803 people with a 3.6% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on December 10 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [09] Shas (Deri)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

60 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
52 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
29 [32] Likud (Saar)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
06 [09] Shas (Deri)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
05 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
54 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Who is to blame if we have third elections?

41% Netanyahu, 26% Lieberman, 23% Everyone equally, 5% Gantz, 5% None of the above

Midgam conducted a poll of 506 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Walla on December 10 2019. The poll was conducted on Dec 9-10 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
1.3% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

38% Gantz, 37% Netanyahu, 16% Neither, 9% Don’t know

Right voters: 58% Netanyahu, 20% Gantz, 15% Neither, 7% Don’t know
Center-Left: 70% Gantz, 18% Neither, 8% Don’t know, 4% Netanyahu

If we go to elections who is to blame?

41% Netanyahu, 33% Lieberman, 12% Don’t know, 6% Gantz, 5% Lapid, 2% Someone else, 1% Haredi parties

Right voters: 51% Lieberman, 26% Netanyahu, 8% Don’t know, 6% Lapid, 5% Gantz, 2% Haredi parties, 2% Someone else
Center-Left: 66% Netanyahu, 13% Lieberman, 8% Gantz, 7% Don’t know, 4% Lapid, 1% Haredi parties, 1% Someone else

Kantar conducted a poll of 556 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Kan Radio on December 9 2019. The poll was conducted the previous day on Dec 8 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
34 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
1.9% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

Who is most qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

Gantz vs Netanyahu: 41% Netanyahu, 38% Gantz, 21% Neither
Gantz vs Saar: 36% Neither, 36% Gantz, 28% Saar

Note: 17% of Blue & White voters prefer Saar over Gantz

Will you go out to vote:

60% Yes

Midgam conducted a poll of 504 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on December 6 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
1.9 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

Gantz vs Netanyahu: 39% Netanyahu, 37% Gantz, 17% Neither, 7% Don’t know
Gantz vs Saar: 36% Gantz, 31% Neither, 19% Saar, 14% Don’t know

Who should lead the Likud?

33% Netanyahu, 29% Saar, 24% Don’t know, 7% Barkat, 6% Edelstein, 1% Katz

Right voters: 52% Netanyahu, 22% Saar, 13% Don’t know, 8% Barkat, 5% Edelstein, 0% Katz

Who is to blame if there is another election?

33% Netanyahu, 30% Lieberman, 18% All 3 equally, 10% Gantz, 9% Don’t know

Following the indictment can Netanyahu remain Prime Minister?

52% No, 38% Yes, 10% Don’t know

Right voters: 57% Yes, 34% No, 9% Don’t know

Do you believe Netanyahu that he would carry out his rotation commitment if he goes first?

44% No, 37% Yes, 19% Don’t know

Will you come out and vote?

63% yes from Center-left, 61% yes from Right

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 503 people with a 4.1% margin of error that was published by Maariv on December 5 2019. Additional results will be released on Radio 103 FM the following day.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
12 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
04 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

Netanyahu & Gantz blame each other for the failed talks – who do you believe?

39% Gantz, 32% Neither, 29% Netanyahu