Tag Archive: Israeli Elections


Next week will mark one year since the March 17, 2015 election. Overall there have been ten public polls released since the election. These are all recent polls since there was no public polling on Knesset seats from late March through late November. Following every election there are questions on the accuracy of polls. When media outlets start ordering polls again there are questions on the necessity of polling in the middle of a term when there is no election in sight and before the end-of-term mergers and splits. My argument here is that polls are more accurate than they are given credit for, and their influence on Israeli politics is profound.

Polling is a science, but it is not an exact science. If the parameters of the model are off so is the estimated margin of error. The Israeli system for allocating seats is a complicated one, and most polling companies cannot predict all mathematical scenarios with their models. Some models are better than others, but each one has its flaws. The saying goes that if you ask two Jews a question you will get three opinions. Polling Jews can be difficult, and finding a representative sample of minority groups can prove even more difficult. However, polling is still the best tool we have for measuring public opinion.

Polling is not just a scientific tool. It can also be used as a political tool because many undecided voters make up their mind by looking at the polls that can influence their final vote. It was for that reason that Israel passed a law prohibiting the publishing of election polls in the last five days before an election. It is difficult to make a final prediction when you need to do so five days in advance.

In 2015 polling companies were blamed not only for getting it wrong with their last polls five days before the election, but also for getting it wrong with the exit polls. The exit poll average was correct on eight of the ten parties with a +1/-1 margin of error. The exit polls were wrong on the two largest lists, Likud and the Zionist Union. That was enough for no media outlet to order a public poll of Knesset seats for the 8 months following the election.

My weekly Poll of Polls model and Election Forecast was carried by The Huffington Post, Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, Jewish Press, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, and others. I updated my final prediction model for 2015 with my latest momentum model that tracked the week-by-week changes of the 15-week-campaign in addition to the methodology of my 2013 model that took into account voter exchange agreements, disqualified votes, votes from parties not expected to pass the 3.25% threshold, fractions of seats, and various 120th seat (last seat) scenarios. My model was released 5 days before the election, and I predicted correctly +1/-1 on eight of the ten party lists with the exception of the Bayit Yehudi to Likud swing that occurred during the five day public polling blackout.

Phase 1 is something that polling can measure (read a quick explanation of the three phases of choosing a Prime Minister here My Weekend Perspective: The Key to Defeating Netanyahu is Phase 2). Phases 2 and 3 require a different type of analysis. Many analysts’ pre-election coalition scenarios were flat out wrong. My Phase 2 prediction of Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ & Kulanu recommending Netanyahu for Prime Minister was correct. My prediction that there would be some sort of change between Phase 2 and Phase 3 was also correct. Yisrael Beitenu opted to vote against the government in Phase 3 despite their Phase 2 nomination of Netanyahu.

There have been ten polls released for public consumption since the election and all of them have been conducted over the last four months. The idea behind polling Knesset seats during a Knesset term is not about predicting election results. The purpose is to measure the popularity of each party based on the policy choices they are making and their public responses to current events.

The chart below averages these ten polls. I’d like to offer my analysis and explanation of why this polling matters. Likud remains in first place with a drop from 30 seats to 26.9. Despite the 3-seat drop Likud is in first place and has been in first place in each of the ten polls. Yesh Atid jumps from 11 seats to 18. This is the largest jump and the most important as Lapid’s party goes from the fourth largest party to the second largest. The Zionist Union drops from 24 to 17.1 and more importantly from the second largest party in Knesset to third place in the average of polling. The Joint List goes from 13 seats to 12.8 and drop from the third to fourth largest party. Bayit Yehudi jumps from 8 to 11.5 and improves a spot to enter the top 5. Yisrael Beitenu improves two spots as they go up from 6 to 8.3 seats. Shas stays in the same spot as they go from 7 seats to 6.8 in polling. UTJ goes up a spot from 6 to 6.6 seats. Kulanu drops four spots from 5th to 9thplace, and not one poll has Kahlon in double-digits as they dip from 10 to a 6.5 average. Meretz remains in last place above the threshold as they grow from 5 to a 5.5 average.

In terms of the blocs we are pretty much where we were before the election with 66.6 for the right-religious bloc and 53.4 for the center-left-Arab bloc. Not much has changed since the election results of 67-53.

This week the Knesset had their monthly discussion with the Prime Minister as mandated by the signatures of 40 opposition MKs. Following the Prime Minister’s speech, Opposition Leader Herzog got up to speak and for the first time decided to use the occasion to target Lapid over Netanyahu in his attacks. When the Opposition Leader dedicates his 40 signatures speech for an attack on the head of another opposition party, as opposed to the prime minister, as is customary, there is no external threat to the government. There was no reason to attack Lapid unless Herzog has been looking at the polls.

Herzog’s speech attacking Lapid proves the relevance and influence of polls on politics, why polls do matter in the middle of a term, and how polls can be used as a political tool instead of a scientific one.

2015 Results 10 Poll Avg 2015 Placing 10 Poll Avg Up/Down
Likud 30 26.9 1st 1st 0
Yesh Atid 11 18.0 4th 2nd 2
Zionist Union 24 17.1 2nd 3rd -1
Joint List 13 12.8 3rd 4th -1
Bayit Yehudi 8 11.5 6th 5th 1
Yisrael Beitenu 6 8.3 8th 6th 2
Shas 7 6.8 7th 7th 0
UTJ 6 6.6 9th 8th 1
Kulanu 10 6.5 5th 9th -4
Meretz 5 5.5 10th 10th 0
Right-Religious 67 66.6 n/a n/a n/a
Center-Left-Arab 53 53.4 n/a n/a n/a

 

Exit Poll Source: https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/18/comparing-results-after-over-99-of-results-to-exit-polls-and-knesset-jeremy-model/

 

Quick recap for new followers: The road to the Prime Minister’s House is a 3-phase process. Phase 1 is the results of the Knesset election process. Phase 2 is the nomination process at the President’s Residence. Phase 3 is the Knesset vote that approves the government presented by the Prime Minister candidate that was nominated by the President and succeeded in forming a coalition.

I believe I am the only website that has tracked every Knesset-seat-poll over Netanyahu’s second, third and fourth terms as they were published or broadcasted.  Loyal readers have noticed that under every poll I match the blocs up in a specific way that examines the Phase 2 chances of a Netanyahu re-election. From time to time people question that breakdown. Already in 2010 I was criticized by my followers for not using the standard coalition-opposition breakdown. Current events highlight the importance of why I divide up the blocs the way I do.

In 2009 Tzipi Livni won Phase 1 with Kadima winning 28 seats to Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud with 27. For some curious reason some in the international media decided to believe Livni’s spin from election night that she had a good shot at succeeding Ehud Olmert as Prime Minister. Most insiders knew that wasn’t going to happen. Of course many anti-Netanyahu analysts and pundits hoped that the former Director-General of the Prime Minister’s Office under Netanyahu’s first term Avigdor Liberman would take Yisrael Beitenu’s 15 seats to Livni over his former boss. In Phase 2 Netanyahu received the nomination of 65 MKs. Livni entered the President’s Residence with 28 seats and left with no other party agreeing to nominate her despite her Phase 1 victory.

It was during Phase 2 of the 2009 process that I realized the vital importance of the right-religious bloc. Ehud Barak brought Labor and their 13 seats into Netanyahu’s coalition so that he could remain the Defense Minister. National Union and their four seats were left out in the cold despite their Phase 2 nomination of Netanyahu. This was interesting on both fronts. Barak, who didn’t nominate Netanyahu in Phase 2, only entered the government in Phase 3 because Netanyahu had enough seats to run a government without him. Perhaps more importantly, Netanyahu was willing to give up on a party that nominated him in Phase 2.

In 2013 Netanyahu’s Likud Beitenu alliance with Liberman won Phase 1 with 31 seats. For some curious reason some people believed Labor Party Leader Shelly Yacimovich who gave a speech election night, when partial results showed a 60-60 bloc tie, claiming that an anti-Netanyahu bloc could be formed to oust him. Results started to indicate the right-religious bloc would get its 61st seat and Yair Lapid announced he would nominate Netanyahu for another term.  In Phase 2, Netanyahu had 82 MKs nominations and many options. His first move was to sign a coalition deal with Livni, who didn’t nominate him in Phase 2, who only entered the government in Phase 3 because Netanyahu had enough seats to run a government without her. Despite nominating him in Phase 2, Shas, UTJ and even Kadima were all left out.

In 2015 Netanyahu’s Likud won Phase 1 with 30 seats. For some curious reason some people believed Zionist Union/Labor Party Leader Issac Herzog who gave a speech election night that he had a shot at building a coalition. Besides overpromising on ministry portfolios Herzog faced the situation that Kahlon said he wouldn’t sit with the Arabs, Liberman said he wouldn’t sit with Meretz and the Haredim said they wouldn’t sit with Yesh Atid. Of course many anti-Netanyahu analysts and pundits hoped that the former Likud Central Committee Chairman and the only Likud Minister Netanyahu trusted with two portfolios during his second term Moshe Kahlon would take his ten seats to Herzog. There was also talk of President Rivlin pushing a national unity government even though the law states clearly that the President must give the first crack at forming a new coalition to the candidate that produces 61 or more nominating votes. Netanyahu received 67 MKs’ nominations to Herzog’s 29. The only other list to back Herzog was Meretz. The Joint List and Yesh Atid made the decision not to nominate Herzog in Phase 2. Netanyahu produced a 61-MK narrow coalition in Phase 3 after failing to come to an agreement with Liberman.

An interesting aspect of the 2015 election was the Arab-Left-Center bloc that can be labeled the “Anti-Netanyahu-Bloc”. If the four lists – Zionist Union, Yesh Atid, The Joint List and Meretz – would have together produced 61 seats then Netanyahu would have been defeated. We have established that there are changes in coalition politics between the nominating process of Phase 2 and the vote of Phase 3. In this scenario it would have been enough for the The Joint List to nominate Herzog in Phase 2 and serve as a placeholder for the Haredim or Liberman to replace them for Phase 3. The problem with the math was that even in this event Herzog would not be able to complete a coalition puzzle for Phase 3, but it could have been enough for Netanyahu to retire during Herzog’s failed attempt and for Likud to choose someone else that would be able to form a coalition afterwards.

This weekend reports surfaced of the latest attempt to unseat Netanyahu – a party or bloc of Lapid-Kalon-Liberman-Sa’ar-Ashkenazi. This reminds me of the Olmert-Livni-Lapid-Ramon-Shelly meetings to run on a party or bloc for the 2013 elections. The attempt is to prevent Netanyahu from reaching 61 in Phase 2. This measure has failed in the past because despite what the mainstream media says there has been no one else with the ability to be competitive for those 61 Phase 2 nominations. However, this modified plan to prevent Netanyahu from reaching 61 nominations as opposed to an alternative of a single candidate trying to secure 61 for themselves is an interesting development. As I stated previously, had the “Anti-Netanyahu-Bloc” of the center-left-Arab reached 61 seats it could have been possible to oust Netanyahu.

It is enough for one of the chips to fall out for a plan like this to collapse. At the once-every-five-years Yisrael Beitenu conference Liberman slammed Netanyahu saying he can’t trust him and won’t promise to recommend him as PM in next election. The part many reporters left out was that he also said he would never join a left-wing government. You might be able to count on Liberman to back an alternative candidate for Phase 2, but you run into the same Phase 3 problems of the previous election of his refusal to sit with Meretz or the Arabs.

Kahlon’s Faction Chairman MK Roy Folkman told Knesset TV on December 22nd that “the Prime Minister contacts us all the time and he places a lot of concrete proposals on the table but merging Kulanu into the Likud is not relevant at this point in time”.  Before the last elections Kahlon, after flirting with Lapid, started negotiations with Likud on a joint list that went on until a day before the final lists were submitted. If Kahlon, whose voters mostly supported Netanyahu for Prime Minister, moved away from the Likud he’d have to revamp his list because many of his MKs prefer Netanyahu to Lapid.

In the event we are talking about a “center-bloc” instead of a “mother-party”, Liberman, Kahlon and even Netanyahu’s former #2 Gideon Sa’ar might balk at not nominating Netanyahu. Despite “talking tough” they have all fallen in line with Netanyahu during the Phase 2 process. The three are all center-right and might not want to risk ending this current long tenure of the right in power just to remove Netanyahu. More importantly, the three all want senior portfolios and are more valuable to Netanyahu than the Herzog-Livni-Lapid-Ashkenazi struggle for the top spots. Liberman can’t be Defense Minister if Ashkenazi is a player. Kahlon can’t keep a senior portfolio if all the top center-left candidates are expecting one. Sa’ar isn’t going to come back to politics unless he gets one of the top three or four ministries. Egos and portfolios matter. Some argue it was Herzog’s indication that he would give Finance to Lapid over Kahlon that led Kulanu into the coalition. Liberman said he would have signed the coalition deal if Netanyahu agreed to give him the Defense Ministry and if Netanyahu hadn’t reached 61 MKs with his current coalition he might have done just that.

If the current coalition of Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas and UTJ are able to stay over 61 MKs none of this will even matter. Netanyahu knows this and that is the plan he is working on. Although I’m sure that if the current coalition grows in the next election the narrative will shift and there will be analysts and pundits that will assure us Shas would prefer a coalition where they would receive lower budgets and less power.

 

I’m going to keep measuring the blocs according to my Phase 2 predictions as I have since 2010. Liberman, Kahlon & Sa’ar will remain in the right column and Lapid & Ashkenazi will remain in the left. The right-religious bloc is the best indicator of Netanyahu’s chance at a fifth term. The center-left-Arab bloc is the key to defeating Netanyahu.

Opposition Leader Herzog led the Zionist Union to first place in the Tel Aviv district with 26.9% of the vote and picked up six seats from the district. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud finished second with 21.3%, which gave them 4.8 seats. Lapid’s Yesh Atid won about 2.5 seats with a third place finish of 11.2%. Kahlon’s Kulanu picked up 1.8 seats with 8% of the vote. Meretz finished in fifth place with 7.1%, representing 1.5 of their six seats.

The Tel Aviv District represented about 22.5 seats with a voter turnout of 66.9%. The turnout was lower than the national average of 72.3%. The Tel Aviv District is home to ten cities, two local councils and two villages.

Party-By-Party Breakdown:

Zionist Union: The Herzog-Livni ticket was a clear favorite across the District with nine victories and four second place finishes. The 26.9% vote in the District was significantly higher than their 18.67% national average. The Zionist Union ticket picked up 34.45% in Herzliya and 34.27% in Tel Aviv.

Likud: Netanyahu picked up victories in Holon, Bat Yam, Or Yehuda and Azor. Likud finished in second place in six cities. The District vote of 21.3% was below their 23.4% national average.

Yesh Atid: Lapid finished third overall in the Tel Aviv district but suffered significant losses across the board. He dropped from 21% to 11.55% in Tel Aviv, 20% to 12.5% in Holon, 23% to 14.28% in Ramat Gan, 15% to 9.27% in Bat Yam, and 26% to 14.98% in Herzliya. Lapid’s 11.2% district vote was still significantly higher than his 8.82% national average.

Kulanu: Kahlon came in fourth with 8%. He did particularly well in Holon with an 11.98% showing.

Meretz: The left-wing party finished fifth in the district with 7.1% and third in Tel Aviv with 13.02%. Meretz also had great showings in Hertzlia (6.51%) and Ramat Gan (6.15%).

UTJ: UTJ won Bnei Brak, which helped them finish in sixth place with 7.1% of the vote, giving them over a seat and a half of their six seats overall. 87.4% of UTJ’s vote in the district came from Bnei Brak.

Shas: The Deri-led party finished seventh with 6.7% of the vote, representing over a seat and a half of their seven seats. Shas dropped across the board in Tel Aviv, Holon, Ramat Gan, Bat Yam and Herzliya.

Bayit Yehudi: Bennett finished eight with 4.1% and picked up close to a seat. Bayit Yehudi finished low in a number of cities including Bnei Brak (2.35%), Tel Aviv (3.36%) and Herzliya (4.16%).

Yisrael Beitenu: Liberman’s party took 3.4% of the vote and picked up 0.7 seats. It was a mixed bag for him as he took 12.88% in Bat Yam but just 2.09% in Tel Aviv.

Others: Yachad finished tenth with 1.8%. The Joint Arab List won 1.2%, and Green Leaf took 1%. Greens and Nach Nach Party took 0.1% each. Each of the other parties finished under 0.1%.

City Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Zionist Union Likud Yesh Atid Kulanu Meretz UTJ
Tel Aviv 261345 403338 89567 47526 30241 17989 34056 2628
Holon 102064 154550 20535 31833 12760 12230 2173 631
Ramat Gan 85126 123618 26515 19542 12152 8288 5238 834
Bnei Brak 78621 101291 1004 3591 508 902 158 46661
Bat Yam 68204 124035 9942 22756 6344 7662 966 704
Herzliya 53681 77395 18495 11747 8040 4586 3495 578
Giv’atayim 33486 45863 13526 5636 5183 2595 3219 193
Ramat HaSharon 26635 35514 11767 4223 3902 1606 2392 650
Kiryat Ono 20454 26750 7208 4176 3458 1797 1223 103
Or Yehuda 18520 26366 2250 7509 1370 2084 255 304
Azor 6466 9238 1407 1994 794 716 140 66
Kfar Shmaryahu 1198 1762 636 157 194 40 102 6
Glil Yam 269 318 169 17 31 9 28 0
Mikveh Israel 108 156 43 16 9 10 7 0
Total 756177 1130194 203064 160723 84986 60514 53452 53358
% 66.9% 26.9% 21.3% 11.2% 8.0% 7.1% 7.1%
Seats 22.5846 33.75527 6.06487 4.8003 2.5383 1.8074 1.5964 1.594
City Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Shas Bayit Yehudi Yisrael Beitenu Yachad The Joint Arab List Other
Tel Aviv 261345 403338 10189 8772 5446 2906 8488 3537
Holon 102064 154550 8046 4959 5601 1842 91 1363
Ramat Gan 85126 123618 2661 5134 2167 1205 196 1194
Bnei Brak 78621 101291 18843 1848 533 4323 13 237
Bat Yam 68204 124035 4692 3513 8785 1651 123 1066
Herzliya 53681 77395 1529 2250 1433 593 101 834
Giv’atayim 33486 45863 417 1520 443 268 101 385
Ramat HaSharon 26635 35514 498 740 287 249 57 264
Kiryat Ono 20454 26750 505 1052 446 208 32 246
Or Yehuda 18520 26366 2682 841 622 401 10 192
Azor 6466 9238 517 364 254 114 2 98
Kfar Shmaryahu 1198 1762 2 29 9 8 4 11
Glil Yam 269 318 4 6 0 0 4 1
Mikveh Israel 108 156 1 18 2 1 0 1
Total 756177 1130194 50586 31046 26028 13769 9222 9429
% 66.9% 6.7% 4.1% 3.4% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2%
Seats 22.5846 33.75527 1.51084 0.9272 0.7774 0.4112 0.2754 0.282

Journalists: Please credit and/or link to the information if you choose to use it. I am happy to give additional insight if requested to do so.

Link: Jerusalem District Report and Data:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/09/17/the-2015-election-jerusalem-district-vote-the-most-comprehensive-report-and-data-in-english-on-jerusalem-district/

Link: Judea and Samaira (West Bank) District Report and Data:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/09/08/the-settler-vote-2015-the-most-comprehensive-report-and-data-on-judea-and-samaria-west-bank-district/

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud Party won the Jerusalem District with 24.8% of the 2015 vote, which gave them about 2.5 of the 30 seats they won nationally. The Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox UTJ Party won second place in the Jerusalem District with 19.6% of the vote, which gave them close to two of the six seats they won in the 2015 election. The Sephardic ultra-orthodox Shas finished in third place with 11.3%, which made up over a seat of their seven. Opposition Leader Herzog’s Zionist Union came in fourth with 10.9% of the vote and can claim one of their 24 seats as a Jerusalem District seat. Minister Naftali Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi was fifth with 8.1%. The ultra-nationalist Yachad party, which did not pass the threshold, finished sixth with 6.6%. Together UTJ and Shas won 30.9% of the Jerusalem District vote.

The Jerusalem District Vote represented about 9.9 seats with a voter turnout of 67.1%. The turnout was lower than the national average of 72.3%. The Jerusalem District is divided into three designations: Two Cities (Jerusalem, Bet Shemesh), three Local Councils-Towns (Mevaseret Tzion, Abu Gosh, Kiryat Ye’arim), and the Mateh Yehuda Regional Council.

Party-By-Party Breakdown

Likud: Likud finished first in the district with 24.8%, above their national average of 23.4%. In 2013 the Likud-Beitenu ticket had 21% in Jerusalem and Likud without Beitenu went up to 24.24% in 2015. Likud finished first in Jerusalem, Mevaseret Tzion and the Mateh Yehuda Regional Council. Within Mateh Yehuda Likud finished first in 29 of the 39 Moshavim and the town of Gizo.

UTJ: UTJ won about a third of their votes with 19.6% of the Jerusalem district. Without this district the party would be under the 3.25% threshold as their national average was just 4.99%. Besides an impressive showing in Jerusalem, UTJ won in Bet Shemesh and Kiryat Yearim.

Shas: Shas was third in the district with 11.3%. However, it is difficult to look at this district as a success because Shas dropped in Jerusalem from 16% to 11.98% over the last election and in Bet Shemesh from 18% to 14.35%. This is one of the few districts where a loss for Shas leader Aryeh Deri can easily be attributed to Yachad leader Eli Yishai’s gain.

Zionist Union: Herzog and Livni took 10.9% of the district vote compared to their 18.67% national average. Despite poor numbers Zionist Union did have a few bright spots such as winning seven of the eight kibbutzim in the Mateh Yehuda Regional Council. Zionist Union also recorded ten victories in moshavim and finished first in the towns of Tzur Hadasah, Srigim, Motza Illit and Nataf.

Bayit Yehudi: Bayit Yehudi finished fifth in the Jerusalem District with 8.1%. In the city of Jerusalem Bayit Yehudi dropped from 12% to 8.33%. In Bet Shemesh they dropped from 14% to 9%. Bayit Yehudi won the town of Nehusa.

Yachad: Eli Yishai’s breakaway party caused real damage to Shas in the Jerusalem District. Shas lost over 4% in Jerusalem alone. Yachad picked up 6.6% of the Jerusalem District vote compared to his national average of 2.97%.

Kulanu: Kahlon’s new party took 4.8% of the Jerusalem District vote. Kulanu finished third among the 39 Mateh Yehuda moshavim and fifth among the eight Mateh Yehuda kibbutzim.

Yesh Atid: Support for Lapid’s party dropped considerably in the Jerusalem District, and the party fell out of the top-five to eighth place with 4.6% of the vote compared to their national average of 8.82%. Lapid dropped from 18% to 10% in Mevasseret Tzion, 7% to 4.21% in Jerusalem and 4% to 2.6% in Bet Shemesh. Yesh Atid finished third overall in Mateh Yehuda.

Meretz: Meretz’s 4.1% in the Jerusalem district is actually slightly better than their national average of 3.93%. Meretz finished fourth in Mateh Yehuda, second in Kibbutzim, and won first place in the town of Nahson.

Yisrael Beitenu: Avigdor Liberman’s party finished tenth in the Jerusalem District with 2.4%, considerably lower than his 5.1% national average. 77% of their district vote came from Jerusalem itself.

The Joint Arab List: The Joint Arab List took 1.9% of the district vote. They won in Abu Gosh and three villages in Mateh Yehuda – Ein Naqquba, Ein Rafa and Neve Shalom. Neve Shalom is a mixed village with an Arab majority. Jerusalem, Abu Gosh, Ein Naqqubam, Ein Rafa and Neve Shalom contributed 98.1% of The Joint Arab List’s Jerusalem District vote.

Others: Green Leaf won 0.7% of the vote for twelfth place. Haredi Women, the other Arab List and the Nach Nach Party each earned 0.1% of the vote. Greens, Perech, Pirates, Demactura, Nivcheret, Schirut, Or, Kalkala, Tikva L’Shinui and Manhigut parties all received less than 0.1% of the vote.

Jerusalem District
Area Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Likud UTJ Shas Zionist Union Bayit Yehudi Yachad
Jerusalem 255286 385888 61874 53948 30579 24696 21266 18330
Beit Shemesh 33878 50926 9051 9589 4860 1111 3053 2421
Mateh Yehuda 23844 31409 6483 211 1055 6292 1805 511
Mevaseret Zion 13946 18713 4521 74 536 3724 759 301
Abu Ghosh 2506 4178 58 4 35 143 10 5
Kiryat Ye’arim 1800 2388 79 1248 241 17 41 141
Total 331260 493502 82066 65074 37306 35983 26934 21709
% 67.1% 24.8% 19.6% 11.3% 10.9% 8.1% 6.6%
Seats 9.8937 14.739 2.451 1.944 1.1142 1.0747 0.80443 0.6484
Area Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Kulanu Yesh Atid Meretz Yisrael Beitenu Arab List Other
Jerusalem 255286 385888 11949 10752 10166 6032 3148 2546
Beit Shemesh 33878 50926 1187 881 162 1321 8 234
Mateh Yehuda 23844 31409 1765 2032 1979 291 1064 356
Mevaseret Zion 13946 18713 1115 1518 1070 175 23 130
Abu Ghosh 2506 4178 21 14 41 5 2114 56
Kiryat Ye’arim 1800 2388 13 3 5 1 0 11
Total 331260 493502 16050 15200 13423 7825 6357 3333
% 67.1% 4.8% 4.6% 4.1% 2.4% 1.9% 1.0%
Seats 9.8937 14.739 0.479 0.454 0.4009 0.2337 0.18986 0.0995
Mateh Yehuda Stats
Type Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Likud Zionist Union Yesh Atid Meretz Bayit Yehudi Kulanu
Moshav 15254 19541 5260 3230 1215 920 1276 1337
Towns 4796 6197 1094 1398 565 583 474 337
Kibbutz 2538 3568 118 1531 248 421 46 83
Arab Village 1256 2103 11 133 4 55 9 8
Mateh Yehuda 23844 31409 6483 6292 2032 1979 1805 1765
Type Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Arab List Shas Yachad Yisrael Beitenu Green Leaf Other
Moshav 15254 19541 37 972 443 167 160 237
Towns 4796 6197 24 61 62 111 57 30
Kibbutz 2538 3568 23 3 3 10 32 20
Arab Village 1256 2103 980 19 3 3 6 25
Mateh Yehuda 23844 31409 1064 1055 511 291 255 312
Mateh Yehuda Breakdown
Moshav Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Likud Zionist Union Kulanu Bayit Yehudi Yesh Atid Shas
Beit Zeit 802 1054 118 316 54 49 109 8
Givat Ye’arim 681 874 230 137 73 62 45 24
Shoresh 647 827 113 280 47 30 89 4
Ora 606 799 197 131 69 42 63 31
Tal Shahar 568 684 77 282 39 16 78 1
Zekharia 554 686 352 42 52 26 14 38
Eshtaol 548 680 205 68 52 40 29 76
Mesilat Zion 527 647 110 211 59 18 48 16
Nes Harim 520 646 207 106 46 43 51 14
Neve Ilan 492 705 81 196 43 21 83 6
Aminadav 476 614 151 129 53 31 40 7
Tzelafon 430 575 235 24 53 42 17 28
Tarum 409 482 163 23 26 111 13 37
Aviezer 406 495 130 81 28 46 52 11
Kfar Uria 402 499 94 148 37 18 37 7
Yish’i 399 508 190 14 7 48 7 84
Mata 391 509 147 83 28 35 23 6
Aderet 381 498 193 12 21 78 15 26
Even Sapir 379 504 172 71 47 15 17 13
Mevo Beitar 379 496 128 74 31 38 59 1
Givat Yeshayahu 374 446 62 136 40 19 40 8
Bekoa 354 440 157 56 49 29 17 20
Naham 352 387 181 15 24 42 13 34
Sho’eva 337 425 74 108 28 16 52 5
Ramat Raziel 334 449 59 108 23 21 38 4
Ta’oz 328 405 106 52 31 48 35 28
Beit Nekofa 314 406 94 91 24 12 42 8
Bar Giora 295 395 120 50 25 26 16 15
Beit Meir 283 355 91 4 12 77 9 22
Neve Michael 278 363 128 27 31 34 7 26
Luzit 276 355 105 31 15 30 15 42
Zanoah 273 366 151 8 28 24 12 33
Mahsia 229 297 108 13 13 28 4 47
Kisalon 215 277 99 18 11 10 4 50
Tirosh 215 306 92 2 12 14 4 76
Agur 207 286 109 13 35 6 5 20
Tzafririm 204 282 44 56 27 7 9 15
Sdot Micha 195 267 80 10 29 6 1 53
Gefen 194 252 107 4 15 18 3 28
Total 15254 19541 5260 3230 1337 1276 1215 972
% 78.1% 34.5% 21.2% 8.8% 8.4% 8.0% 6.4%
Moshav Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Meretz Yachad UTJ Yisrael Beitenu Green Leaf Other
Beit Zeit 802 1054 111 5 4 8 10 10
Givat Ye’arim 681 874 60 20 11 7 6 6
Shoresh 647 827 64 2 2 11 4 1
Ora 606 799 23 25 2 8 15 0
Tal Shahar 568 684 57 5 0 5 6 2
Zekharia 554 686 2 15 2 4 5 2
Eshtaol 548 680 20 29 21 4 2 2
Mesilat Zion 527 647 47 5 0 5 6 2
Nes Harim 520 646 17 18 3 6 6 3
Neve Ilan 492 705 46 1 3 2 7 3
Aminadav 476 614 49 7 1 1 5 2
Tzelafon 430 575 5 19 3 2 2 0
Tarum 409 482 0 24 4 1 5 2
Aviezer 406 495 25 10 4 13 2 4
Kfar Uria 402 499 53 2 0 0 3 3
Yish’i 399 508 0 35 12 0 2 0
Mata 391 509 49 1 3 4 4 8
Aderet 381 498 9 9 1 10 3 4
Even Sapir 379 504 15 2 1 14 10 2
Mevo Beitar 379 496 19 17 0 5 5 2
Givat Yeshayahu 374 446 48 7 1 4 8 1
Bekoa 354 440 3 17 2 2 1 1
Naham 352 387 0 25 11 2 4 1
Sho’eva 337 425 35 4 4 7 3 1
Ramat Raziel 334 449 57 5 2 6 3 8
Ta’oz 328 405 14 7 2 1 1 3
Beit Nekofa 314 406 19 6 2 9 5 2
Bar Giora 295 395 17 12 6 3 2 3
Beit Meir 283 355 0 39 21 1 3 4
Neve Michael 278 363 0 14 4 3 3 1
Luzit 276 355 11 9 17 0 1 0
Zanoah 273 366 2 8 2 3 1 1
Mahsia 229 297 0 5 4 3 4 0
Kisalon 215 277 10 9 3 0 1 0
Tirosh 215 306 1 9 4 0 1 0
Agur 207 286 3 3 7 2 2 2
Tzafririm 204 282 28 2 2 6 5 3
Sdot Micha 195 267 0 8 2 4 2 0
Gefen 194 252 1 3 9 1 2 3
Total 15254 19541 920 443 182 167 160 92
% 78.1% 6.0% 2.9% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6%
Towns Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Zionist Union Likud Meretz Yesh Atid Bayit Yehudi Kulanu
Tzur Hadassah 2963 3779 810 786 274 418 211 233
Srigim 529 708 212 77 103 51 18 39
Motza Illit 503 714 235 50 88 59 20 33
Nehusa 442 533 7 134 5 9 215 17
Nataf 257 336 109 8 100 17 4 10
Gizo 102 127 25 39 13 11 6 5
Total 4796 6197 1398 1094 583 565 474 337
% 77.4% 29.1% 22.8% 12.2% 11.8% 9.9% 7.0%
Towns Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Yisrael Beitenu Yachad Shas Green Leaf Arab List Other
Tzur Hadassah 2963 3779 102 23 44 34 12 16
Srigim 529 708 1 4 3 13 7 1
Motza Illit 503 714 7 0 2 3 4 2
Nehusa 442 533 1 35 10 3 0 6
Nataf 257 336 0 0 0 4 1 4
Gizo 102 127 0 0 2 0 0 1
Total 4796 6197 111 62 61 57 24 30
% 77.4% 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6%
Kibbutz Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Zionist Union Meretz Yesh Atid Likud Kulanu Bayit Yehudi
Tzora 539 814 346 91 40 19 10 9
Tzova 433 633 307 28 38 19 20 9
Ma’ale HaHamisha 349 496 222 45 32 24 11 7
Nativ HaLamed-Heh 321 409 221 34 33 9 10 2
Nahshon 304 402 126 136 23 8 4 1
Ramat Rachel 259 322 136 29 38 24 9 8
Kiryat Anavim 229 293 129 29 30 12 13 8
Harel 104 199 44 29 14 3 6 2
Total 2538 3568 1531 421 248 118 83 46
% 71.1% 60.3% 16.6% 9.8% 4.6% 3.3% 1.8%
Kibbutz Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Green Leaf Arab List Yisrael Beitenu Nach Shas Other
Tzora 539 814 6 15 0 0 0 3
Tzova 433 633 1 1 1 4 0 5
Ma’ale HaHamisha 349 496 3 0 3 0 0 2
Nativ HaLamed-Heh 321 409 8 3 0 0 1 0
Nahshon 304 402 0 1 0 4 1 0
Ramat Rachel 259 322 10 0 2 0 0 3
Kiryat Anavim 229 293 4 1 1 0 1 1
Harel 104 199 0 2 3 0 0 1
Total 2538 3568 32 23 10 8 3 15
% 71.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
Arab Village Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Arab List Zionist Union Meretz Shas Likud UTJ
Ein Naqquba 759 1370 601 76 9 19 9 10
Ein Rafa 361 562 299 44 9 0 2 0
Neve Shalom 136 171 80 13 37 0 0 0
Total 1256 2103 980 133 55 19 11 10
% 59.7% 78.0% 10.6% 4.4% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8%
Arab Village Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Bayit Yehudi Kulanu Green Leaf Nivcheret Yesh Atid Other
Ein Naqquba 759 1370 7 5 2 5 3 13
Ein Rafa 361 562 2 0 3 0 1 1
Neve Shalom 136 171 0 3 1 0 0 2
Total 1256 2103 9 8 6 5 4 16
% 59.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3%

Journalists: Please credit and/or link to the information if you choose to use it. I am happy to give additional insight if requested to do so.

Link: Judea and Samaira (West Bank) District Report and Data:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/09/08/the-settler-vote-2015-the-most-comprehensive-report-and-data-on-judea-and-samaria-west-bank-district/

In the 2015 Israeli general election Naftali Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi party finished in first place among the population living over the green line with 25% of the vote. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud finished in second place with 23.9%. The Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox UTJ received 16.6% of the settler vote. The ultra-nationalist Yachad party, which did not pass the threshold, captured 9.6%, and the Sephardic ultra-orthodox Shas rounded out the top five with 7.2%. Together UTJ and Shas won 23.8%.

The Settler Vote represented about 4.9 seats with a voter turnout of 79.5%. The turnout was higher than the national average of 72.3%. The Judea and Samaria (West Bank) District is divided into four designations: Cities (4), Local Councils-Towns (13), Regional Councils (6) and non-Area C (Hebron).

Party-By-Party Breakdown

Bayit Yehudi: Despite the ‘settler party’ label, only 1 of every 4 settlers voted for Bayit Yehudi. The 25% figure is a drop from 28% in the 2013 elections. 14.4% of Bayit Yehudi’s overall vote came from the settlements. That means just 1.23 of their 8 seats are from settlers. Bayit Yehudi was not in first place in any of the four cities and won just six of the 13 municipal council towns. Bayit Yehudi won 57 of the 105 settlements in the six regional councils. In the Megilot Regional Council Bayit Yehudi finished fourth, its worst showing.

Likud: Likud increased their support over the green line from 21% in the 2013 election to about 24% in 2015. Likud gained a little over a seat (1.17) from the settlers. Likud won two cities (Ma’ale Adumim, Ariel), five towns (Givat Ze’ev, Oranit, Alfei Menashe, Beit Aryeh, Ma’ale Efraim), and 25 settlements in the regional councils. Likud was the only party to win at least one settlement in all six regional councils.

UTJ: Although a majority of their vote came from Modi’in Iliit and Betar Illit, UTJ won three additional settlements (Matityahu, Metzad, Ma’ale Amos) and had good showings in others (Givat Ze’ev, Immanuel, Kokhav Ya’akov). UTJ can attribute close to a seat (0.81) to their following in the district.

Yachad: About 12.5% of the vote for the ultra-nationalist Yishai-Chetboun-Marzel Party that failed to pass the threshold came from the settlements. A fourth place showing in the district of 9.6% illustrates that they are a key player across the green line. Yachad finished in 3rd place overall in each of the top-four populated regional councils (Binyamin, Shomron, Gush Etzion, Har Hevron) and won five settlements (Kohav Ya’akov, Nahliel, Yitzhar, Bat Ayin, Ma’ale Hever).

Shas: Most of Shas’s 7.2% showing across the green line is from the three cities of Modi’in Illit, Ma’ale Adumim, and Betar Illit, the town of Giv’at Zeev and the settlements of Kokhav Yaakov and Adam. Shas came in first in the settlement of Immanuel.

Zionist Union: Herzog and Livni’s joint faction picked up 4.9% of the district vote. The Labor Party, which started the settlement movement, picked up a victory in the town of Har Adar and 11 settlements. Labor finished in first place in the Megilot Regional Council, where it picked up four victories, and third place in the Jordan Valley, where the party also won in four settlements. The other three victories were in Shomron’s Sal’it and Reihan, and Binaymin’s Kfar HaOranim.

Yesh Atid: Lapid’s party finished 7th in the district’s voting with 4.3% of the vote. 43.7% of his votes came from three places (Ma’ale Adumim, Oranit, Alfei Menashe). Number 2 on the Yesh Atid list, Rabbi Shai Piron, is from the settlement of Oranit, where his party finished second. Yesh Atid finished first in the Jordan Valley settlement of Gilgal. Yesh Atid averaged in the top five in four of the six regional councils.

Kulanu: Kahlon won 3.7% of the settler vote. 42.8% of the vote came from three places (Ma’ale Adumim, Ariel, Giv’at Zeev). Kulanu finished in the top five in three of the six regional councils.

Yisrael Beitenu: Party head Liberman is a settler, but his party finished ninth overall among settlers with just 2.8% of the vote. His party finished third place, behind Bayit Yehudi and Likud, in his own hometown of Nokdim. Yisrael Beitenu did win in two settlements, Shomron’s Hermesh and Jordan Valley’s Yitav. 60% of Yisrael Beitenu’s district vote came from the two cities of Ariel and Ma’ale Adumim.

Green Leaf: The legalize marijuana party received 1% of the settler vote compared to their national average of 1.12%. Green Leaf’s settler vote made up 3.3% of their overall total and remained a top-10 option in almost every settlement.

Meretz: The anti-settler Meretz picked up 1,121 settler votes. Meretz finished in 11th place in the district with 0.7% of the vote. Without those 1,121 votes Meretz would have lost a seat to UTJ in the final seat distribution.

Others: The Haredi Women Party and the Nach Nach Party received 0.1% of the vote each. The Joint (Arab) List picked up 75 votes and finished 14th in the district among the party lists. The Green, Perech, Nivcheret, Pirates, Kalkala, Or, Schirut and Democatura parties all finished under 0.1%. The other competing Arabs lists – The Arab List and Hope for Change received four votes each.

Judea and Samaria (West Bank) District Voting:

Area Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Bayit Yehudi Likud UTJ Yachad Shas Zionist Union
Cities 65419 83531 4558 14448 24711 4261 8331 1459
Regional Councils 56624 69306 23947 13569 930 7568 1717 2729
Local Councils 41654 53155 12423 11199 1644 3814 1699 3836
Not Area-C 231 271 90 16 0 114 1 2
Total 163928 206263 41018 39232 27285 15757 11748 8026
% 79.5% 25.0% 23.9% 16.6% 9.6% 7.2% 4.9%
Seats 4.896004 6.1604 1.23 1.17 0.81 0.47 0.35 0.24
Area Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Yesh Atid Kulanu Yisrael Beitenu Green Leaf Meretz Other
Cities 65419 83531 1718 2191 2839 518 221 164
Regional Councils 56624 69306 2062 1975 977 612 371 167
Local Councils 41654 53155 3218 1916 787 465 529 124
Not Area-C 231 271 2 5 0 1 0 0
Total 163928 206263 7000 6087 4603 1596 1121 455
% 79.5% 4.3% 3.7% 2.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3%
Seats 4.896004 6.1604 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.05 0.03 0.01

Breakdown

City Kosher Votes Eligible Votes UTJ Likud Shas Bayit Yehudi Yachad
Modi’in Iliit 19866 23529 15044 256 3342 259 818
Ma’ale Adumim 19860 26709 289 9472 1000 2895 844
Betar Illit 15976 19103 9347 234 3904 101 2249
Ariel 9717 14190 31 4486 85 1303 350
Total 65419 83531 24711 14448 8331 4558 4261
% 78.3% 37.8% 22.1% 12.7% 7.0% 6.5%
City Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Yisrael Beitenu Kulanu Yesh Atid Other
Modi’in Iliit 19866 23529 15 29 10 93
Ma’ale Adumim 19860 26709 1248 1530 1144 1438
Betar Illit 15976 19103 26 27 8 80
Ariel 9717 14190 1550 605 556 751
Total 65419 83531 2839 2191 1718 2362
% 78.3% 4.3% 3.3% 2.6% 3.6%
Local Council Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Bayit Yehudi Likud Zionist Union Yachad Yesh Atid
Giv’at Ze’ev 7802 10109 813 2644 567 599 498
Oranit 4651 5690 678 1214 1003 57 1004
Efrat 4569 5868 2501 1394 81 244 71
Alfei Menashe 4237 5366 404 1286 879 53 866
Karnei Shomron 3662 4757 1682 1107 87 277 61
Kiryat Araba 3319 4492 1141 834 30 1006 15
Beit El 2726 3210 1604 308 5 724 2
Beit Aryeh-Ofarim 2404 3082 520 932 261 52 254
Har Adar 2125 2668 92 392 824 9 388
Elkana 2094 2455 1459 362 22 151 25
Kedumim 2045 2382 1332 410 5 228 6
Immanuel 1380 1911 64 79 2 360 1
Ma’ale Efraim 640 1165 133 237 70 54 27
Total 41654 53155 12423 11199 3836 3814 3218
% 78.4% 29.8% 26.9% 9.2% 9.2% 7.7%
Local Council Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Kulanu Shas UTJ Other
Giv’at Ze’ev 7802 10109 472 875 1051 283
Oranit 4651 5690 338 43 35 279
Efrat 4569 5868 107 32 26 113
Alfei Menashe 4237 5366 393 50 39 267
Karnei Shomron 3662 4757 99 82 24 243
Kiryat Araba 3319 4492 47 34 11 201
Beit El 2726 3210 10 20 19 34
Beit Aryeh-Ofarim 2404 3082 205 47 15 118
Har Adar 2125 2668 162 15 2 241
Elkana 2094 2455 25 17 11 22
Kedumim 2045 2382 13 18 12 21
Immanuel 1380 1911 3 459 395 17
Ma’ale Efraim 640 1165 42 7 4 66
Total 41654 53155 1916 1699 1644 1905
% 78.4% 4.6% 4.1% 3.9% 4.6%
Regional Council Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Bayit Yehudi Likud Yachad Zionist Union Yesh Atid
Binyamin 25093 30609 10086 5430 4238 1019 868
Shomron 15668 19182 6494 4346 1844 781 620
Gush Etzion 9678 11896 4867 2596 850 216 170
Har Hevron 3280 3765 1680 536 514 139 117
Jord. Valley 2251 2993 732 540 121 353 196
Megilot 654 861 88 121 1 221 91
6 Councils 56624 69306 23947 13569 7568 2729 2062
% 81.7% 42.3% 24.0% 13.4% 4.8% 3.6%
Regional Council Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Kulanu Shas Yisrael Beitenu Other
Binyamin 25093 30609 799 1359 254 1040
Shomron 15668 19182 599 210 384 390
Gush Etzion 9678 11896 259 125 195 400
Har Hevron 3280 3765 113 12 58 111
Jord. Valley 2251 2993 137 8 76 88
Megilot 654 861 68 3 10 51
6 Councils 56624 69306 1975 1717 977 2080
% 81.7% 3.5% 3.0% 1.7% 3.7%
Binyamin Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Bayit Yehudi Likud Yachad Shas Zionist Union
Kokhav Ya’akov 2684 3243 419 248 854 848 5
Adam 2161 2743 363 869 276 249 67
Hashmonaim 1736 2188 865 480 164 75 18
Kfar Adumim 1681 2062 601 619 60 4 118
Eli 1525 1900 760 323 365 21 5
Ofra 1479 1782 1051 246 136 2 5
Talmon 1357 1538 869 106 353 9 1
Shilo 1309 1554 761 194 327 5 0
Kfar HaOranim 1099 1358 66 128 14 2 440
Mitzpe Yeriho 987 1166 526 151 259 11 1
Kokhav HaShahar 871 1014 494 74 285 3 0
Mevo Horon 858 942 448 64 282 25 0
Psagot 825 957 500 122 189 4 2
Giv’on HaHasasha 749 1026 95 272 12 19 100
Ma’ale Mikhmas 681 781 391 119 135 13 1
Nili 669 832 116 223 3 4 86
Almon 640 825 101 327 5 6 36
Na’ale 629 785 125 198 9 4 97
Halamish 629 761 387 140 72 8 0
Dolev 608 725 459 73 59 0 4
Beit Horon 606 706 281 184 51 8 12
Rimonim 315 454 53 164 10 9 20
Ma’ale Levona 289 359 137 58 87 0 0
Nahliel 244 288 27 13 173 19 0
Ateret 244 279 179 21 38 2 1
Matityahu 218 341 12 14 20 9 0
Total 25093 30609 10086 5430 4238 1359 1019
% 82.0% 40.2% 21.6% 16.9% 5.4% 4.1%
Binyamin Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Yesh Atid Kulanu UTJ Other
Kokhav Ya’akov 2684 3243 2 11 276 21
Adam 2161 2743 75 150 30 82
Hashmonaim 1736 2188 13 46 46 29
Kfar Adumim 1681 2062 111 100 7 61
Eli 1525 1900 0 15 9 27
Ofra 1479 1782 4 12 4 19
Talmon 1357 1538 2 1 13 3
Shilo 1309 1554 1 5 3 13
Kfar HaOranim 1099 1358 261 96 5 87
Mitzpe Yeriho 987 1166 3 12 12 12
Kokhav HaShahar 871 1014 0 5 1 9
Mevo Horon 858 942 1 3 32 3
Psagot 825 957 2 1 1 4
Giv’on HaHasasha 749 1026 108 83 0 60
Ma’ale Mikhmas 681 781 2 7 6 7
Nili 669 832 97 74 5 61
Almon 640 825 75 52 1 37
Na’ale 629 785 81 67 3 45
Halamish 629 761 4 3 6 9
Dolev 608 725 0 3 1 9
Beit Horon 606 706 10 31 13 16
Rimonim 315 454 16 20 0 23
Ma’ale Levona 289 359 0 1 1 5
Nahliel 244 288 0 0 10 2
Ateret 244 279 0 0 0 3
Matityahu 218 341 0 1 161 1
Total 25093 30609 868 799 646 648
% 82.0% 3.5% 3.2% 2.6% 2.6%
Shomron Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Bayit Yehudi Likud Yachad Zionist Union Yesh Atid
Sha’arei Tikva 2842 3533 814 989 83 288 253
Tzofim 923 1104 387 272 40 57 57
Barkan 896 1180 179 436 11 69 71
Yakir 824 956 532 194 62 5 5
Har Bracha 816 953 225 476 97 3 1
Etz Efraim 803 955 285 280 33 38 42
Elon Moreh 751 904 429 79 219 2 4
Avnei Hefetz 733 854 389 147 141 2 0
Revava 715 787 546 67 92 0 1
Peduel 684 789 497 84 90 0 2
Alei Zahav 530 657 321 140 18 8 10
Hinanit 502 625 219 82 25 12 8
Ma’ale Shomron 461 567 170 170 35 13 17
Yitzhar 448 539 90 8 332 0 1
Shavei Shomron 408 520 157 106 120 0 2
Itamar 398 485 178 35 162 2 0
Shaked 395 516 82 120 11 65 27
Kfar Tapuach 371 490 146 97 114 1 0
Einav 357 429 182 65 66 1 4
Sal’it 317 408 11 49 0 148 78
Nofim 309 425 81 164 9 7 4
Kiryat Netafim 306 352 174 88 18 1 3
Rechelim 199 213 142 27 28 0 0
Bruchin 198 230 154 24 18 0 0
Mevo Dotan 169 265 39 73 11 14 2
Hermesh 121 181 13 28 3 14 13
Reihan 99 131 18 20 0 29 11
Migdalim 93 134 34 26 6 2 4
Total 15668 19182 6494 4346 1844 781 620
% 81.7% 41.4% 27.7% 11.8% 5.0% 4.0%
Shomron Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Kulanu Yisrael Beitenu Shas Other
Sha’arei Tikva 2842 3533 222 50 30 113
Tzofim 923 1104 56 12 9 33
Barkan 896 1180 61 35 1 33
Yakir 824 956 11 1 2 12
Har Bracha 816 953 3 1 4 6
Etz Efraim 803 955 48 25 24 28
Elon Moreh 751 904 4 1 5 8
Avnei Hefetz 733 854 14 4 32 4
Revava 715 787 0 1 2 6
Peduel 684 789 2 0 6 3
Alei Zahav 530 657 14 12 6 1
Hinanit 502 625 20 129 4 3
Ma’ale Shomron 461 567 20 11 13 12
Yitzhar 448 539 1 0 3 13
Shavei Shomron 408 520 3 6 4 10
Itamar 398 485 0 1 4 16
Shaked 395 516 55 22 7 6
Kfar Tapuach 371 490 0 0 11 2
Einav 357 429 1 1 32 5
Sal’it 317 408 7 1 0 23
Nofim 309 425 10 18 5 11
Kiryat Netafim 306 352 11 3 4 4
Rechelim 199 213 1 0 0 1
Bruchin 198 230 1 0 0 1
Mevo Dotan 169 265 8 14 1 7
Hermesh 121 181 15 29 1 5
Reihan 99 131 8 0 0 13
Migdalim 93 134 3 7 0 11
Total 15668 19182 599 384 210 390
% 81.7% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 2.5%
Gush Etzion Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Bayit Yehudi Likud Yachad Kulanu Zionist Union
Alon Shvut 1659 2009 1069 398 102 25 21
Tekoa 1457 1797 717 445 122 28 18
Elazar 1107 1309 688 291 60 16 11
Neve Daniel 1089 1341 691 272 70 18 11
Nokdim 756 922 296 213 70 13 12
Har Gilo 691 864 93 283 16 79 86
Kedar 656 822 88 373 14 48 38
Bat Ayin 524 703 185 74 212 3 2
Carmeo Tzur 475 529 306 71 86 1 0
Rosh Tzurim 411 461 315 62 9 10 3
Kfar Etzion 337 421 211 69 11 16 12
Metzad 185 248 52 6 40 0 0
Migdal Oz 173 240 126 31 6 2 2
Ma’ale Amos 158 230 30 8 32 0 0
Total 9678 11896 4867 2596 850 259 216
% 81.4% 50.3% 26.8% 8.8% 2.7% 2.2%
Gush Etzion Kosher Votes Eligible Votes UTJ Yisrael Beitenu Yesh Atid Other
Alon Shvut 1659 2009 10 3 14 17
Tekoa 1457 1797 14 42 19 52
Elazar 1107 1309 3 3 13 22
Neve Daniel 1089 1341 4 2 5 16
Nokdim 756 922 9 119 5 19
Har Gilo 691 864 2 13 56 63
Kedar 656 822 3 7 40 45
Bat Ayin 524 703 9 0 4 35
Carmeo Tzur 475 529 4 0 0 7
Rosh Tzurim 411 461 1 1 4 6
Kfar Etzion 337 421 0 1 9 8
Metzad 185 248 69 2 0 16
Migdal Oz 173 240 0 1 1 4
Ma’ale Amos 158 230 71 1 0 16
Total 9678 11896 199 195 170 326
% 81.4% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 3.4%
Har Hevron Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Bayit Yehudi Likud Yachad Zionist Union Yesh Atid
Susya 426 525 318 35 67 0 0
Teneh 362 474 116 79 38 41 38
Otniel 335 391 228 33 65 0 1
Beit Yatir 249 285 168 27 37 4 0
Beit Hagai 225 256 126 34 64 0 0
Shani 220 326 30 73 4 23 20
 Carmel 214 263 146 20 0 0 2
Shim’a 211 304 71 62 22 14 11
 Ma’on 204 259 141 11 50 0 0
Adora 176 220 57 39 18 24 10
Ma’ale Hever 166 192 52 20 90 1 0
Eshkolot 165 212 25 54 5 24 34
Sansana 145 163 110 22 9 0 1
Telem 100 134 33 20 30 8 0
Negohot 82 87 59 7 15 0 0
Total 3280 3765 1680 536 514 139 117
% 87.1% 51.2% 16.3% 15.7% 4.2% 3.6%
Har Hevron Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Kulanu Green Leaf Yisrael Beitenu Other
Susya 426 525 2 2 0 2
Teneh 362 474 27 2 15 6
Otniel 335 391 5 0 0 3
Beit Yatir 249 285 5 4 0 4
Beit Hagai 225 256 0 0 0 1
Shani 220 326 21 16 27 6
 Carmel 214 263 0 45 1 0
Shim’a 211 304 14 4 7 6
 Ma’on 204 259 0 1 0 1
Adora 176 220 19 4 3 2
Ma’ale Hever 166 192 0 0 0 3
Eshkolot 165 212 14 2 3 4
Sansana 145 163 2 0 0 1
Telem 100 134 3 1 2 3
Negohot 82 87 1 0 0 0
Total 3280 3765 113 81 58 42
% 87.1% 3.4% 2.5% 1.8% 1.3%
Jor. Valley Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Bayit Yehudi Likud Zionist Union Yesh Atid Kulanu
Mehola 322 394 185 60 13 6 2
Shadmot Mehola 263 321 198 26 1 0 1
Tomer 176 243 29 49 35 34 18
Petza’el 176 225 38 58 36 25 14
Ro’i 154 190 54 33 31 19 7
Gitit 150 187 61 36 16 2 10
Yitav 137 168 49 11 0 0 4
Beka’ot 115 142 10 45 24 21 8
Netiv HaGdud 105 149 11 25 30 12 14
Masua 96 132 25 39 8 11 6
Hamra 93 132 10 33 24 7 10
Argaman 87 130 12 34 13 9 7
Yafit 82 135 17 26 13 6 10
Gilgal 82 132 15 21 17 22 6
Mekhora 81 115 12 22 20 10 12
Na’omi 77 126 6 22 25 9 8
Niran 55 72 0 0 47 3 0
Total 2251 2993 732 540 353 196 137
% 75.2% 32.5% 24.0% 15.7% 8.7% 6.1%
Jor. Valley Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Yachad Yisrael Beitenu Green Leaf Other
Mehola 322 394 43 3 5 5
Shadmot Mehola 263 321 30 0 4 3
Tomer 176 243 0 7 4 0
Petza’el 176 225 0 1 4 0
Ro’i 154 190 2 2 2 4
Gitit 150 187 19 2 3 1
Yitav 137 168 15 52 4 2
Beka’ot 115 142 0 0 5 2
Netiv HaGdud 105 149 3 3 4 3
Masua 96 132 0 1 4 2
Hamra 93 132 4 0 1 4
Argaman 87 130 2 3 2 5
Yafit 82 135 2 0 3 5
Gilgal 82 132 0 0 0 1
Mekhora 81 115 0 0 5 0
Na’omi 77 126 1 2 2 2
Niran 55 72 0 0 0 5
Total 2251 2993 121 76 52 44
% 75.2% 5.4% 3.4% 2.3% 2.0%
Megilot Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Zionist Union Likud Yesh Atid Bayit Yehudi Kulanu
Kalya 254 330 72 35 49 47 29
Vered Yeriho 135 173 22 53 12 23 15
Mitzpe Shalem 110 151 61 8 12 5 9
Almog 104 145 53 13 16 5 9
Beit HaArava 51 62 13 12 2 8 6
Total 654 861 221 121 91 88 68
% 76.0% 33.8% 18.5% 13.9% 13.5% 10.4%
Megilot Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Meretz Green Leaf Yisrael Beitenu Other
Kalya 254 330 7 8 3 4
Vered Yeriho 135 173 1 5 0 4
Mitzpe Shalem 110 151 9 3 3 0
Almog 104 145 6 1 0 1
Beit HaArava 51 62 1 4 4 1
Total 654 861 24 21 10 10
% 76.0% 3.7% 3.2% 1.5% 1.5%
Non-C Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Yachad Bayit Yehudi Likud Kulanu Zionist Union
Hebron 231 271 114 90 16 5 2
% 85.2% 49.4% 39.0% 6.9% 2.2% 0.9%
Non-C Kosher Votes Eligible Votes Yesh Atid Shas Green Leaf Other
Hebron 231 271 2 1 1 0
% 85.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Journalists: Please credit and/or link to the information if you choose to use it. I am happy to give additional insight if requested to do so.

Panels conducted a poll on July 17 2013 that was broadcast by Channel 99 on July 18 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [31] Likud Beitenu
17 [15] Labor
15 [19] Yesh Atid
15 [12] Bayit Yehudi
11 [06] Mertez
09 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [06] Movement
02 [02] Kadima
02 [00] Strong Israel

62 [61] Right-Religious
58 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The Right gains 4 seats since last months poll to gain a majority while Yesh Atid’s tailspin continues placing Lapid in a tie for third largest party with his “brother” Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi.

Report: Probable look at Netanyahu government, his 21 ministers and 8 deputy ministers.

 

Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) Prime Minister , Minister of Foreign Affairs

 

Moshe Ya`alon (Likud) Minister of Defense

Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) Minister of Finance

Naftali Bennett (Bayit Yehudi) Minister of Economy, Industry, Trade, and Labor, Minister of Religious Services, Minister of Diaspora Affairs and Jerusalem

 

Tzipi Livni (Livni Party) Minister of Justice

Gideon Sa`ar (Likud) Minister of Internal Affairs

Shai Piron (Yesh Atid) Minister of Education

 

Yitzhak Aharonovitch (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Internal Security

Uri Ariel (Bayit Yehudi) Minister of Housing and Construction

Yael German  (Yesh Atid) Minister of Health

 

Uzi Landau (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Tourism

Yisrael Katz (Likud) Minister of Transportation, National Infrastructure, and Road Safety

Gilad Erdan (Likud) Minister of Communications and Minister of Home Front Defence

Yaakov Perry (Yesh Atid) Minister of Science and Technology

Limor Livnat (Likud) Minister of Culture and Sport

 

Yair Shamir (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development

Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid) Minister of Welfare and Social Services

Uri Orbach (Bayit Yehudi) Minister for Senior Citizens

Amir Peretz (Livni Party) Minister of Environmental Protection

Sofa Landver (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Immigrant Absorption

 

** Silvan Shalom (Likud) Minister of Energy and Water, Minister of the Development of the Negev and Galil, (possibly Minister of Regional Cooperation)

** Yuval Steinitz (Likud) Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy and Minister of Strategic Affairs

 

** = Pending

 

Reported Defense Ministers:

Deputy Defense Danon (Likud)

Deputy Foreign Elkin (Likud)

Deputy Education Vortzman (Bayit Yehudi)

Deputy Religious Ben Dahan (Bayit Yehudi)

Deputy Welfare Minister Levy (Yesh Atid)

Deputy Minister Akunis (Likud)

+ 2 more

 

* I will update this page as thing change.

 

I’m looking forward to Monday, that is most likely the day we will swear in a new government. Coalition deals should be on Knesset table Sunday. There is a 24-hour period in between.

Here are the highs and lows of Israel’s top 20 populated cities for the Knesset’s 12 parties.

Likud Beitenu: Avg 23%.

Highs: 42% Ashkelon, 38% Beer Sheva, 36% Ashdod.

Lows: 4% Bnei Brak, 18% Tel Aviv, 19% Raanana.

Yesh Atid: Avg 14%.

Highs: 26% Hertzlia, 23% Rishon Letzion and Ramat Gan.

Lows: 1% Bnei Brak, 4% Bet Shemesh, 7% Jerusalem.

Labor: Avg 11%.

Highs: 19% Kfar Saba, 17% Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan.

Lows: 1% Bnei Brak, 3% Bet Shemesh, 6% Ashdod.

Bayit Yehudi: Avg 9%.

Highs: 14% Bet Shemesh and Raanana, 13% Petah Tikva.

Lows: 4%, Tel Aviv and Bnei Brak, 6% Haifa, Holon and Hertzlia.

Shas: Avg 8%.

Highs: 25% Bnei Brak, 18% Bet Shemesh, 17% Ashdod.

Lows: 2% Modiin, 3% Haifa and Raanana.

UTJ: Avg 5%.

Highs: 60% Bnei Brak, 28% Bet Shemesh, 22% Jerusalem.

Lows: <1% Holon, Kfar Saba and Modiin.

Movement: Avg 4%.

Highs: 8% Hertzlia, 7% Tel Aviv, Haifa, Rishon Letzion and 4 others.

Lows: <1% Bnei Brak, 1% Bet Shemesh, 2% Jerusalem.

Meretz: Avg 4%.

Highs: 14% Tel Aviv, 8% Hertzlia, 7% Ramat Gan, Kfar Saba and Raanana.

Lows: <1% Bnei Brak, 1% Ashdod, Ashkelon and Bet Shemesh.

Ra’am-Ta’al: Avg 3%.

Highs: 1% Tel Aviv.

Lows: <1% 19 cities.

Hadash: Avg 2%.

Highs: 5% Haifa, 2% Tel Aviv.

Lows: <1% 18 cities.

Balad: Avg 2%.

Highs: 2% Haifa.

Lows: <1% 19 cities.

Kadima: Avg 2%.

Highs: 3% Rishon Letzion, Holon, Ramat Gan and Hertzlia.

Lows: <1% Bnei Brak and Bet Shemesh, 1% Jerusalem and Ashdod.

Top 20 Cities Breakdown

Party/City National Avg Tel Aviv Jerusalem Haifa Rishon Petah Tikva Ashdod
Overall Votes 3,792,742 244,901 241,139 139,363 125,345 111,194 103,274
Likud Beitenu 23% 18% 21% 26% 31% 29% 36%
Yesh Atid 14.33% 21% 7% 18% 23% 18% 10%
Labor 11.39% 17% 7% 15% 14% 11% 6%
Bayit Yehudi 9.12% 4% 12% 6% 7% 13% 7%
Shas 8.75% 6% 16% 3% 5% 7% 17%
UTJ 5.16% 1% 22% 3% 1% 4% 10%
Movement 4.99% 7% 2% 7% 7% 5% 4%
Meretz 4.55% 14% 4% 5% 2% 2% 1%
Ra’am-Ta’al 3.65% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Hadash 2.99% 2% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1%
Balad 2.56% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
Kadima 2.08% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1%
Party/City Holon Netanya Beer Sheva Ramat Gan Bnei Brak Bat Yam Rechovot
Overall Votes 93,248 92,694 85,611 80,182 75,147 63,960 62,147
Likud Beitenu 31% 34% 38% 23% 4% 37% 27%
Yesh Atid 20% 16% 11% 23% 1% 15% 17%
Labor 13% 9% 8% 17% 1% 10% 13%
Bayit Yehudi 6% 11% 12% 7% 4% 7% 11%
Shas 11% 11% 13% 4% 25% 12% 8%
UTJ <1% 2% 1% 1% 60% 1% 4%
Movement 6% 4% 5% 7% >1% 6% 6%
Meretz 3% 2% 2% 7% >1% 2% 4%
Ra’am-Ta’al <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Hadash <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Balad <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Kadima 3% 2% 2% 3% <1% 2% 2%
Party/City Ashkelon Kfar Saba Hertzlia Raanana Modiin Hadera Bet Shemesh
Overall Votes 54,431 51,659 50,958 41,153 39,954 38,578 29,593
Likud Beitenu 42% 23% 22% 19% 23% 34% 23%
Yesh Atid 10% 22% 26% 24% 27% 16% 4%
Labor 7% 19% 16% 16% 15% 12% 3%
Bayit Yehudi 9% 7% 6% 14% 12% 8% 14%
Shas 14% 4% 4% 3% 2% 9% 18%
UTJ 1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 2% 28%
Movement 4% 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 1%
Meretz 1% 7% 8% 7% 6% 2% 1%
Ra’am-Ta’al <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Hadash <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Balad <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Kadima 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% <1%

Official election results were announced a week after the elections.

3,834,210 of the 5,656,705 eligable voters (67.78%) voted in the election.
40,914 of the votes were disqualified for various reasons leaving 3,793,296 “kosher” votes.

12 parties entered Knesset after passing the 2% threshold.

Party                    Letters Seats   % of vote   Total Votes

Likud Beitenu מחל 31 23.33%
885,054
Yesh Atid פה 19 14.33%
543,458
Labor אמת 15 11.39%
432,119
Bayit Yehudi טב 12 9.12%
345,985
Shas שס 11 8.75%
331,871
UTJ ג 7 5.16%
195,893
Movement צפ 6 4.99%
189,168
Meretz מרץ 6 4.54%
172,403
Ra’am-Ta’al עם 4 3.66%
138,782
Hadash ו 4 3.00%
113,613
Balad ד 3 2.56%
97,071
Kadima כן 2 2.08%
79,081
Strong Israel נץ 0 1.76%
66,775
Am Shalem ץ 0 1.20%
45,691
Green Leaf קנ 0 1.15%
43,734
Eretz Hadasha ז 0 0.74%
28,080
Koach Lahaspia פז 0 0.74%
28,049
HaYisraelim יק 0 0.50%
18,941
Greens רק 0 0.21%
8,117
Pensioners זך 0 0.16%
5,975
Chaim Bkavod הפ 0 0.10%
3,640
Da’am ק 0 0.09%
3,546
Achim Anachnu פנ 0 0.08%
2,899
Social Justice צק 0 0.08%
2,877
Na Nach פץ 0 0.06%
2,176
Pirates פ 0 0.05%
2,076
Kalkala פי 0 0.05%
1,972
Mitkademet Liberalit נק 0 0.04%
1,352
Or ני 0 0.03%
1,027
Brit Olam נ 0 0.02%
761
Hatikva Leshinui הק 0 0.02%
649
Moreshet Avot הי 0 0.01%
461

I’ll post some other breakdowns in the coming days.

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