Tag Archive: midgam


Midgam conducted a poll of 503 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 2 on April 22 2017. The poll was taken on April 19-20.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud
24 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [24] Zionist Union
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [05] Meretz

65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Are you pleased with the conduct of Prime Minister Netanyahu?

61% No, 33% Yes, 6% Don’t know

Do you support Kahlon’s plan?

85% Yes, 10% Don’t know, 5% No

Will Kahlon’s plan improve your economic situation?

45% Won’t influence, 41% Will improve, 14% Don’t know

Why is there opposition to Kahlon’s plan from the Likud?

63% Political considerations, 22% Don’t know, 15% Concern for handicap funds

Average has been UPDATED: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

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Midgam Poll on Term Limits

Midgam conducted a poll for the Knesset Channel that was broadcast on September 22 2016.

Should there be a two-term-limit on mayors?

63% Yes, 34% No, 3% Don’t know

Does the fact that mayors have political power and influence over primary party members deter MKs from proposing term-limit bills?

73% Yes, 17% No, 10% Don’t know

There have been cases where real estate moguls offered benefits to Mayors. Should Mayors be prevented from chairing construction committees that approve building plans?

77% Yes, 15% No, 8% Don’t know

Will a two-term-limit help eradicate corruption scandals in local municipalities?

63% Yes, 31% No, 6% Don’t know

Mayors have the authority to appoint their ombudsmen/comptroller and the legal advisers of the municipality. Should they keep that authority?

84% No, 11% Yes, 5% Don’t know

Should there be a term limit for the position of Israeli Prime Minister to two terms, as the United States limits US Presidents?

64% Yes, 32% No, 4% Don’t know

Midgam conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on September 15 2016.

Do you think the status-quo on religion and state issues is justified?

67% Yes, 26% No, 7% Don’t know

In cases where there is a conflict between the laws of the states and the laws of Halacha, which should determine the law?

70% State, 22% Halacha, 8% Don’t know

Are you for public transportation on Shabbat in places where there is no high concentration of religious and Haredi populations?

73% Yes, 22% No, 5% Don’t know

Are you for opening stores on the Sabbath where there is no high concentration of religious and Haredi populations?

67% Yes, 25% No, 5% Don’t know, 3% Only in Tel Aviv

Is it justified to have the train work on every Sabbath to make sure the trains can run the rest of the week?

72% Yes, 21% No, 7% Don’t know

Is Netanyahu giving in to the Haredim on train work on the Sabbath going to increase in your opinion the Haredi demands to change the status quo?

64% Yes, 24% No, 12% Don’t know

Does it encourage you that Netanyahu accepted the public opinion and allowed work on the Sabbath or does it presents fears that he would accept public opinion in a non-justified way in other areas where the public is not an expert?

49% Worried, 31% Encouraged, 20% Don’t know

Midgam conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on September 8 2016.

Do you think there is an inclination of racism within the Israeli police towards people with an Ethiopian background?

67% Yes, 21% No, 12% Don’t know

Does the educational system do enough to prevent incitement and violence in Israeli society?

86% No, 9% Yes, 5% Don’t know

Does the law enforcement system do enough to prevent incitement and violence in Israeli society?

89% No, 6% Yes, 5% Don’t know

Should we act against people who incite to racism on social media and regular media with criminal charges?

89% Yes, 7% Don’t know, 4% No

The former head of the Mossad Tamir Pardo said in public that the polarization between right and left could lead to a civil war. Do you agree with him?

62% Yes, 27% No, 11% Don’t know

Do the politicians statements on the ethnic divides in society actually cause the division of ethnic groups and hurt Israeli society?

85% Yes, 8% No, 7% Don’t know

Could the tension between right and left lead in your opinion to another political assignation?

53% Yes, 32% No, 15% Don’t know

Midgam conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 2 on September 6 2016. In addition they conducted a scenario poll with a new Yaalon party.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [11] Yesh Atid

22 [30] Likud

14 [08] Bayit Yehudi

13 [24] Zionist Union

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

10 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [10] Kulanu

06 [07] Shas

05 [05] Meretz

 

65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition

55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

 

Scenario Poll: New Party of Yaalon

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

21 [30] Likud

21 [11] Yesh Atid

14 [08] Bayit Yehudi

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

11 [24] Zionist Union

10 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [00] New Yaalon Party

06 [07] Shas

05 [10] Kulanu

05 [05] Meretz

 

70 [67] Right-Religious

50 [53] Center-Left-Arab

 

Updated KnessetJeremyPollingAverage:

https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Poll#1: Smith conducted a poll of 500 people with a margin of error of 4.5% that was broadcast by Reshet Bet Radio on Sep 4 2016.

Who is in your opinion is responsible for the Shabbat Crisis?

43% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 25% Haredi parties, 19% Transportation Minister Katz, 13% No opinion

In your opinion should the Prime Minister fire or not fire the Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz?

82% Not fire, 18% Fire

Notes: Among those who fault Yisrael Katz for the Shabbat crisis: 53% Not fire, 47% Fire. 43% of Haredim said Katz should be fired. Among Likud voters 76% said don’t fire and 24% said fire. Among Zionist Union voters 13% said fire, 11% of Yesh Atid voters also said he should be fired, just 5% of Meretz voters said Katz should be fired. 10% of Bayit Yehudi voters said Katz should be fired.

 

Poll #2: HaMidgam Project (formerly Dialog) conducted a poll of 501 people for Walla that was published on Sep 4 2016.

In your opinion who is responsible for the crisis of the train work on the Sabbath?

42% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 27% Haredi parties, 17% Transportation Minister Katz, 11% No opinion, 3% Someone else

Do you support or oppose infrastructure work on trains during the Sabbath?

57% Support, 35% Oppose, 8% no opinion

Notes:  57% of secular Jews blame Netanyahu and 37% of traditional Jews blame Netanyahu. Among religious Jews 40% blame Katz, 19% the Haredi parties and 16% blame Netanyahu. Among Haredim 53% blame Katz, 19% blame Netanyahu and just 6% blame their own Haredi parties.

Among secular Jews 86% support the work on the Sabbath compared to 7% who oppose. Among traditional Jews the level of support is 56%. Among religious Jews 78% oppose the work on the Sabbath and 13% support it. Among Haredim – 100% oppose the work on the Sabbath.

 

Poll #3: Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Sept 4 2016.

Who is to blame for the Train Crisis?

49% Netanyahu, 21% Both equally, 14% Katz

Should Netanyahu fire Minister Katz?

64% No, 17% Yes

Was Netanyahu’s decision not to have the work done on Shabbat justified?

63% No, 25% Yes

 

Poll #4:  Panels conducted a poll of 502 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was published by Maariv on Sep 5 2016

Would you advise Netanyahu to fire or not fire Minister Yisrael Katz?

62% No, 26% Don’t know, 12% Yes

Note: 62% – number the same among Likud members.

Who do you support in the current working on the Sabbath crisis?

52% Katz, 25% Netanyahu, 23% Don’t know

Note: Among Likud voters 41% support Katz, 32% support Netanyahu & 27% don’t know.

Is the current crisis due to the Sabbath or is it an internal political issue between Netanyahu and Katz?

67% Internal political issue, 21% About the Sabbath crisis, 12% Don’t know.

Note: Among Likud voters 60% think it is an internal political issue, 33% about the Sabbath crisis and 7% didn’t know.

In principle do you support or oppose serious infrastructure work on the Sabbath?

61% Support, 34% Oppose, 5% No opinion

Note: Among Likud voters 58% support working on the Sabbath, 33% oppose and 9% don’t know.

Are you pleased with the way Transportation Minister Katz does his job?

62% Yes, 30% No

Party Seats Smith -17 Teleseker -17 New Wave -17 Panels -19 Dialog -19 Midgam -19 Geo -20 Maagar Mochot -23 TRI -23
Likud 30 21 -9 23 -7 23 -7 21 -9 20 -10 22 -8 26 -4 21 -9 24 -6
Zionist Union 24 25 -1 25 -1 23 -1 25 -1 24 26 -2 21 -3 24 24
The Joint List 13 13 12 -1 13 13 13 13 12 -1 12 -1 12 -1
Yesh Atid 11 11 12 -1 13 -2 13 -2 12 -1 12 -1 12 -1 13 -2 14 -3
Kulanu 10 9 -1 9 -1 9 -1 10 10 8 -2 8 -2 8 -2 8 -2
Bayit Yehudi 8 11 -3 11 -3 12 -4 11 -3 12 -4 11 -3 13 -5 13 -5 12 -4
Shas 7 9 -2 7 6 -1 7 7 7 8 -1 7 5 -2
Yisrael Beitenu 6 6 6 6 4 -2 5 -1 5 -1 7 -1 5 -1 4 -2
UTJ 6 6 7 -1 6 6 7 -1 6 8 -2 7 -1 7 -1
Merertz 5 5 4 -1 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 -1
Yachad 0 (3) 4 -1 4 -1 4 -1 5 -2 5 -2 5 -2 3 5 -2 4 -1

 

Company Off by Last Poll
Smith -17 13-Mar
Telesker -17 13-Mar
New Wave -17 6-Mar
Panels -19 13-Mar
Dialog -19 14-Mar
Midgam -19 14-Mar
Geo -20 8-Mar
Maagar Mochot -23 12-Mar
TRI -23 10-Mar

The only pollster to correctly predict Netanyahu’s Phase 2 partners at 67 seats vs his non-Phase 2 partners at 53 seats is Teleseker.

Smith, New Wave, Dialog and Maagar Mochot predicted 66 seats, Panels, Midgam and TRI predicted 64,  Geocartography predicted 70.

Party Exit Poll AVG Knesset Jeremy Model Results after 99.9% Results vs Exits Results vs KJ
Likud 26.2 22 30 +3.8 +8
Zionist Union 25.6 25 24 -1.6 -1
Joint Arab List 13 12 13 0 +1
Yesh Atid 11.8 12 11 -0.8 -1
Kulanu 9.6 9 10 +0.4 +1
Bayit Yehudi 8.4 12 8 -0.4 -4
Shas 7.2 7 7 -0.2 0
UTJ 6.6 7 6 -0.6 -1
Yisrael Beitenu 5.2 5 6 +0.8 +1
Meretz 5.2 5 5 -0.2 0
Yachad 3.2 4 0 (3) -0.2 -1

Facts:

* Both Exit Poll average and Knesset Jeremy average are within 1 seat on 9 of the 11 parties.

* Exit polls are very close to the current results with the exception of Likud that is at +3.8.

* Knesset Jeremy Model published last week is very close to the results with the exception of Likud gaining at the expense of Bayit Yehudi.

Analysis:

* Likud is the “Yesh Atid” of the 2015 elections.

* Likud gradually gained at the expense of Bayit Yehudi during the last four-five days before the elections as indicated by internal polls that were prohibited from being published by Israeli law.

* Likud gain at expense of Bayit Yehudi is similar on a mathematical level to Yesh Atid gain at expense of Bayit Yehudi in previous election.

* Last polls gave us an accurate picture of Thursday-Friday before Likud’s strategic voting offensive against the right was launched.

* Exit polls missed Likud by close to four seats because their model missed a specific demographic or geographic area.

* It will probably take a few days of going over data to understand what they missed.

* Group of parties that are expected to nominate Prime Minister Netanyahu according to Phase 2 prediction was 66 in the Knesset Jeremy Model and that group is now currently at 67.

*This proves that the last minute shift was within the blocs.

Conclusions:

* People are going to focus too much on the polls getting Likud wrong and not enough on the polls more or less getting everything else right.

* I’m looking forward to an interesting and exciting Phase 2 process where I expect Kulanu, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ and Yisrael Beitenu to join Likud in nominating Prime Minister Netanyahu to get first crack at putting together his fourth term as Prime Minister.

Updates:

The table has been updated to reflect over 200,000 double envelope votes that were counted on March 19.

Party Channel 2 Channel 10 Channel 1 Channel 99 Channel 20 Exit Poll AVG Knesset Jeremy Model Difference
Likud 28 27 27 26 23 26.2 22 4.2
Zionist Union 27 27 27 27 20 25.6 25 0.6
Joint Arab List 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 1
Yesh Atid 12 11 12 12 12 11.8 12 -0.2
Kulanu 9 10 10 10 9 9.6 9 0.6
Bayit Yehudi 8 8 9 9 8 8.4 12 -3.6
Shas 7 7 7 7 8 7.2 7 0.2
UTJ 6 7 6 6 8 6.6 7 -0.4
Yisrael Beitenu 5 5 5 5 6 5.2 5 0.2
Meretz 5 5 5 5 6 5.2 5 0.2
Yachad 3 3 3 3 4 3.2 4 -0.8

According to the average of exit polls, Knesset Jeremy Model predicted 9 of 11 parties within one seat.

The exception being the transfer of votes from Bayit Yehudi to Likud in the final days at an advanced rate.

Phase 2 Prediction Analysis

Yesterday I focused on Phase 1.

Two days ago I posted the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2015.

Zionist Union 25
Likud 22
The Joint (Arab) List 12
Yesh Atid 12
Bayit Yehudi 12
Kulanu 9
Shas 7
UTJ 7
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Meretz 5
Yachad 4

I listed the two most likely scenarios for Phase 2:

Possible Netanyahu Phase 2: Likud (22), Bayit Yehudi (12), Kulanu (9), Shas (7), UTJ (7), Yisrael Beitenu (5), Yachad (4) =66

Possible Herzog Phase 2: Zionist Union (25), The Joint (Arab) List (12), Yesh Atid (12), Kulanu (9), Meretz (5) =63

Timeline between Phase 1 and 2, and exactly how Phase 2 works:

Tomorrow at 10 PM Israel time the voting will end and election polls will be closed. Those who enter the polling station before 10 PM will still be allowed to vote. Each of the 10,119 polling stations across 3,200 sites will have a committee of three people, representing three different parties and those three people will tally the votes by hand. The party representatives will text the results to their headquarters so that the Party Leaders know the results before the television journalists. The official results will be entered into the computer and published on the Central Elections Committee website http://bechirot.gov.il/ as the night goes on.

The focus will be on the exit polls until the middle of the night when a good percentage of the vote will have been counted. By the morning we should have most of the votes in and the Phase 1 results should be rather clear. The “double-envelope” votes will not be included in these initial results. These are votes by citizens who voted overseas or in Israeli army bases, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails or polling station committee members. These votes will be counted afterwards in the Knesset itself. Expect a slight shift of a seat-or-two in the final Phase 1 results after the double-envelope votes are counted.

Phase 2: The newly elected Knesset will be sworn in on March 31st. We will not have a government, but we should know who will get the first crack at putting together a government by that date. President Rivlin is expected to meet with the Knesset factions in an official capacity on March 24th, but he is most likely going to already start working unofficial channels after the election results are clear.

The law for some reason does not take the size of a party into account. The law requires President Rivlin to sit with all of the newly elected lists before making a decision on who should get the first crack at forming a new government. President Rivlin is looking to pressure all of the parties to make a decision, but most likely he will not need to. The last time someone didn’t receive a majority of votes in Phase 2 or the first person to receive that nod was not able to form a government was back in the 1980s. Historically, the issue that forced national unity governments was that the two largest parties had too many seats and it was impossible to form a coalition with the few small parties that passed the threshold in lower single-digits. This all changed with the rise of the middle-sized “kingmaker” parties. The unofficial negotiations that are conducted between Phase 1 and Phase 2 have always enabled one of the Prime Minister candidates to reach enough support to get the first crack.

Prediction:

Bottom line my prediction is that it will not be in President Rivlin’s hands. Someone is going to get a majority. The President has also made it clear that he will do everything in his power to force the parties to make a choice and not drag it out.

The parties visit the President in order of party size. Zionist Union will nominate Herzog. Likud will nominate Netanyahu. The Joint List party head who is from Hadash will nominate Herzog but the leaders of Ra’am and Balad will warn President Rivlin that their list head is not speaking for all of the parties on the list. By law Rivlin will count The Joint List’s votes but will take Ra’am and Balad into account to determine “who has the best chance at forming a coalition” in the event no one gets 61 seats. Yesh Atid will nominate Herzog. Bayit Yehudi will nominate Netanyahu. I predict this is where Rivlin will call it a day for the first day of deliberations.

I expect President Rivlin to start Day 2 of Phase 2 with Kahlon. Kahlon can go either way, but my feeling is that because Trajtenberg and Lapid are above him on the Finance Ministry Portfolio list that Kahlon goes with Netanyahu who had already offered him that position. I could be wrong here but it just seems like Herzog will have a tough job giving Kahlon a competitive offer compared to Netanyahu. I expect both UTJ and Shas to nominate Netanyahu again in return for Haredi funding and the sorts. It is possible that one of the parties in UTJ will not be happy with the Phase 2 decision to nominate Netanyahu.

Liberman might nominate himself to get out of Rivlin’s pressure tactics. He is capable of doing this, but most likely it is an empty threat to milk a better deal out of Netanyahu. Yisrael Beitenu showed their right-wing colors at the right’s rally yesterday and Liberman’s top campaign promises include killing jailed terrorists. This is not exactly the type of thing that you see from a candidate that is angling for a Herzog government invitation. Liberman prefers a national-unity-government but will most likely go for Netanyahu when he sees it is unlikely to happen. Meretz will endorse Herzog and Yachad will endorse Netanyahu. I expect Rivlin to officially give Netanyahu the first crack at a new coalition next weekend.

Netanyahu is going to have problems forming coalition agreements with six additional parties and the people are going to question the legitimacy of a government where the largest party once again does not rule the country. That is our system. It is possible Netanyahu doesn’t reach Phase 3 and that Herzog gets a nod to be the second person to try Phase 2, although I doubt it. It is because of this scenario (and others), that I am going to hold off on my Phase 3 predictions until after the official election results. Of course if Herzog scores the Kahlon nominating some how, he will get the first crack at forming a government.

I want to thank Five Thirty Eight for their interview with me that was released today, to the Huffington Post for using my model as their basis, the many publications that have been linking and crediting my site including the Washington Post and Jerusalem Post. I have started to commit to media appearances tomorrow and others who are interested know how to get in touch.

To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!