Tag Archive: dialog


Poll#1: Smith conducted a poll of 500 people with a margin of error of 4.5% that was broadcast by Reshet Bet Radio on Sep 4 2016.

Who is in your opinion is responsible for the Shabbat Crisis?

43% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 25% Haredi parties, 19% Transportation Minister Katz, 13% No opinion

In your opinion should the Prime Minister fire or not fire the Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz?

82% Not fire, 18% Fire

Notes: Among those who fault Yisrael Katz for the Shabbat crisis: 53% Not fire, 47% Fire. 43% of Haredim said Katz should be fired. Among Likud voters 76% said don’t fire and 24% said fire. Among Zionist Union voters 13% said fire, 11% of Yesh Atid voters also said he should be fired, just 5% of Meretz voters said Katz should be fired. 10% of Bayit Yehudi voters said Katz should be fired.

 

Poll #2: HaMidgam Project (formerly Dialog) conducted a poll of 501 people for Walla that was published on Sep 4 2016.

In your opinion who is responsible for the crisis of the train work on the Sabbath?

42% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 27% Haredi parties, 17% Transportation Minister Katz, 11% No opinion, 3% Someone else

Do you support or oppose infrastructure work on trains during the Sabbath?

57% Support, 35% Oppose, 8% no opinion

Notes:  57% of secular Jews blame Netanyahu and 37% of traditional Jews blame Netanyahu. Among religious Jews 40% blame Katz, 19% the Haredi parties and 16% blame Netanyahu. Among Haredim 53% blame Katz, 19% blame Netanyahu and just 6% blame their own Haredi parties.

Among secular Jews 86% support the work on the Sabbath compared to 7% who oppose. Among traditional Jews the level of support is 56%. Among religious Jews 78% oppose the work on the Sabbath and 13% support it. Among Haredim – 100% oppose the work on the Sabbath.

 

Poll #3: Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Sept 4 2016.

Who is to blame for the Train Crisis?

49% Netanyahu, 21% Both equally, 14% Katz

Should Netanyahu fire Minister Katz?

64% No, 17% Yes

Was Netanyahu’s decision not to have the work done on Shabbat justified?

63% No, 25% Yes

 

Poll #4:  Panels conducted a poll of 502 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was published by Maariv on Sep 5 2016

Would you advise Netanyahu to fire or not fire Minister Yisrael Katz?

62% No, 26% Don’t know, 12% Yes

Note: 62% – number the same among Likud members.

Who do you support in the current working on the Sabbath crisis?

52% Katz, 25% Netanyahu, 23% Don’t know

Note: Among Likud voters 41% support Katz, 32% support Netanyahu & 27% don’t know.

Is the current crisis due to the Sabbath or is it an internal political issue between Netanyahu and Katz?

67% Internal political issue, 21% About the Sabbath crisis, 12% Don’t know.

Note: Among Likud voters 60% think it is an internal political issue, 33% about the Sabbath crisis and 7% didn’t know.

In principle do you support or oppose serious infrastructure work on the Sabbath?

61% Support, 34% Oppose, 5% No opinion

Note: Among Likud voters 58% support working on the Sabbath, 33% oppose and 9% don’t know.

Are you pleased with the way Transportation Minister Katz does his job?

62% Yes, 30% No

Dialog conducted a poll that was taken out for Channel 10 and released on March 14 2015.

This was the last poll released in the 2015 Election cycle.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
20 [18] Likud
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
10 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

66 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Midgam conducted a poll that was taken out for Channel 2 and released on March 14 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
22 [18] Likud
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [20] Yesh Atid
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

64 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

-This polls is was 2nd poll by Midgam on final day of voting and identical to Yediot Acharonot poll with the exception of Yachad gaining a seat from Bayit Yehudi.

* I will release the final Poll of Polls Average tonight with the Knesset Jeremy Phase 1 Prediction.

Dialog conducted a poll of 714 people with a 3% margin of error that was taken out for Haaretz and released on March 12 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
21 [18] Likud
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [20] Yesh Atid
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
04 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

65 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
55 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Dialog conducted a poll of 952 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was taken out for Channel 10 and was released on March 4 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
13 [20] Yesh Atid
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
10 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

66 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Dialog conducted a poll that was taken out for Channel 10 and was released on Feb 26 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
21 [18] Likud
13 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

67 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
53 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Dialog conducted a poll that was taken out for Haaretz and was released on Feb 25 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

68 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
52 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Interesting additional question that I will add:

Number of undecided voters (Largest Party that they are leaning towards)

1 – Yachad 49% (15% Shas,15% UTJ)
2 – Zionist Union 43% (17% Yesh Atid)
3 – The Joint List 40% (40% Meretz)
4 – Shas 38% (11% Yachad)
5 – Likud 36% (17% Bayit Yehudi)
6 – Yesh Atid 36% (14% Zionist Union)
7 – Bayit Yehudi 34% (17% Likud)
8 – Koolanu 29% (10% Yesh Atid)
9 – Yisrael Beitenu 29% (10% Koolanu)
10 – Meretz 26% (19% Zionist Union)
11 – UTJ 15% (7% Yachad)

Quick Take: Interesting that half of Yachad voters have not finalized their vote. Important to note that Likud voters are more locked in than Zionist Union voters.

Dialog conducted a poll that was taken out for Channel 10 and was released on Feb 18 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
22 [18] Likud
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

68 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
52 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition)

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #11 (week of Feb 8-Feb 14 2015) of 7 polls from 4 leading polling companies (2 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 0 Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.4 (25.3) [18] Likud

2nd 23.2 (23.6) [20] Zionist Union (Labor+Livni)

3rd 12.4 (13.0) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 12.4 (12.0) [11] The Joint (Arab) List

5th 10.1 (10.4) [20] Yesh Atid

6th 08.0 (07.5) [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)

7th 07.0 (07.2) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 06.8 (06.5) [10] Shas

9th 05.8 (05.4) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10th 05.1 (05.2) [06] Meretz

11th 04.4 (03.8) [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

69.0 (68.6) [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)

51.0 (51.3) [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)

*Note #1: Marzel & Zoabi are currently disqualified but Supreme Court has yet to have final say.

* Note #2: Results including the two polling companies that released their first polls of the election cycle and are not expected to carry out additional polls (Times of Israel’s 202 Strategies and Sekernet): Likud 24.4, Zionist Union23.6, Bayit Yehudi 12.1, The Joint (Arab) List 12.1, Yesh Atid 10.1, Koolanu 8.3, UTJ 7.1, Shas 6.5, Yisrael Beitenu 6.0, Meretz 5.0, Yachad 4.5. There is no change in placement compared to the regular poll of poll results and no party has a change of more than 0.4 of a seat on the average.

Changes: The Joint (Arab) List has tied Bayit Yehudi as the third largest party.

Largest Gains: Yachad gained 0.6 of a seat; Koolanu gained 0.5 of a seat and both The Joint (Arab) List and Yisrael Beitenu gained 0.4.

Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 0.9 of a seat; Bayit Yehudi dropped 0.6 of a seat & Zionist Union lost 0.4 of a seat.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 11:

1 – President Rivlin sets the ground rules for Phase 2: Race goes from a head-to-head war to a bloc war

Last week we discussed the 3-Phase process to the Prime Minister House. Phase 1 – Elections (seats). Phase 2 – President’s Residence (nomination). Phase 3 – Knesset vote (61 MKs needed).

Most analysts have been focusing on Phase 2 because President Rivlin chose to not be so clear on how he will conduct that process. Rivlin’s decision this week to announce he plans to pressure all parties to choose a preference turns the election from a head-to-head war to a bloc war.

Previously the thought process was that parties such as Koolanu, Yisrael Beitenu, UTJ and Shas could get away by saying they prefer a national unity government or say they do not have a preference between Netanyahu and Herzog. Rivlin’s insistence to force an answer out of each party leader will reduce the wiggle room each of these parties has.

Only six (Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Yachad vs Zionist Union-Yesh Atid-Meretz) of the eleven lists that are expected to be elected to the next Knesset have made their positions on Phase 2 clear, with a seventh (Joint Arab List) making it clear they will never nominate or vote for a Netanyahu government. Of course parties such as Yesh Atid have implied their Phase 2 preference does not necessarily indicate what their Phase 3 plans. Rivlin’s move is meant to force the other parties to announce their Phase 2 plans before the election. The move could also convince parties that have made commitments on Phase 2, but are non-committal about Phase 3, to announce their intentions before the election as well.

Both Likud and the Zionist Union are frustrated by this announcement because the head-to-head argument was helping the two largest lists in the polls during the last few weeks. Rivlin’s move could help parties that are polling close to the electoral threshold such as Meretz and Yisrael Beitenu stay afloat.

Fans of the two-party system shouldn’t blame President Rivlin for making this call because it is the Israeli public that is choosing to make this a bloc war. The two largest lists running in this election have failed in every poll to reach half of the seats together. A national unity government of the two largest parties would still require other parties to reach 61 MKs. Simply, a majority of Israelis are choosing the other nine.

2 – What would it take for Herzog to become Prime Minister?

If Herzog wins 23 seats in Phase 1, as he did in the average of this week’s polls, what would it take for him to reach the Prime Minister office?

One possible scenario:

In Phase 2, Herzog would need to receive the backing of enough party leaders to prove to Rivlin that he is capable of reaching 61 MKs to approve his government in Phase 3. To start off Herzog figures out a way to convince his future coalition partners why he is keeping the top three senior portfolios (Foreign Minister Livni, Finance Minister Trajtenberg and Defense Yadliin) or alternatively Herzog dumps some or all of the people he had campaigned with. Herzog starts with his natural partner. Meretz’s 5 seats will quickly bring Herzog from 23 to 28. Yair Lapid, who makes it harder to bring in the Haredim and the Arabs, joins a Herzog coalition and convinces Herzog to either dump Trajtenberg as Finance Minister or perhaps accepts a lower level portfolio. Yesh Atid brings Herzog up to 38. Herzog turns to Kahlon, who almost ran on a joint list with Likud, and offers Koolanu either the Finance portfolio that Herzog didn’t give Trajtenberg or Lapid, or perhaps a lower level portfolio.

At 46, Herzog makes a play to get a commitment from the Arabs. The Joint (Arab) List forgives the Zionist Union for voting to disqualify MK Zoabi from running in the election, ignore past commitments not to enter a Zionist coalition, and raises Herzog’s numbers to 58. Herzog, with a commitment from Zionist Union-Meretz-Joint Arab List-Yesh Atid-Koolanu for 58 seats has two options. Herzog either convinces Liberman to take a big demotion and sit with Meretz (and perhaps the Joint Arab List) in a left-wing government or Herzog tries to convince Shas and/or UTJ to sit with Lapid. The Hardim find some way to agree to sit with Lapid and not rollback the Haredi Draft Law, with some sort of increase Haredi institution funding. Or perhaps Lapid allows the Haredi Draft Law to be repealed for the sake of replacing Netanyahu. The Joint Arab List who helped Herzog in Phase 2 disappear in Phase 3, but it doesn’t matter because by this point you have a stable coalition of Zionist Union-Meretz-Yesh Atid-Koolanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Shas-UTJ.

Following this unusual Phase 2 arrangement, this potential Herzog government would now require 61 MKs to approve such a coalition in Phase 3, without any rebel MKs from any of the factions voting against such a union. Of course MKs such as Zoabi & Trajtenberg would vote for such an arrangement.

3 – What would it take for Netanyahu to become Prime Minister?

If Netanyahu wins 24 seats in Phase 1, as he did in the average of this week’s polls, what would it take for him to reach the Prime Minister office?

One possible scenario:

Prime Minister Netanyahu starts off with his natural partners. He offers Naftali Bennett a senior portfolio and jumps from 24 to 36. Netanyahu brings in the three Haredi parties (UTJ-Shas-Yachad) with promises of the Interior Minister, Appropriations Chairman and plenty of funding.  With 53 seats in the bag, Netanyahu offers Kahlon the Finance Minister position and Netanyahu’s coalition is already at 61. Yisrael Beitenu joins between Phase 2 and Phase 3.

There are challenges of course. Deri might refuse to nominate Netanyahu, even if given a major portfolio. Can Deri and Yishai sit together in the same cabinet? Can Netanyahu get away with selling out to the Haredim? Will Netanyahu be able to overpay Kahlon and/or Liberman for a commitment before they meet President Rivlin?

**

4 – Week 12 Preview

The election is in 30 days. Things have started to stabilize, no party gained or lost a complete seat this week. The ground game is also starting to pick up. Likud and Zionist Union will try to find a way to return the focus to their head-to-head match-up. Yesh Atid, Koolanu and Yisrael Beitenu will try to take advantage of Rivlin’s recent statements. Bayit Yehudi will try to keep rebounding after three consecutive weeks of bad polling with encouraging news following two Friday polls at 13 seats. The Joint Arab List and UTJ will keep focus on their plans to get out their vote.

For more analysis on the ‘Poll of Polls’ you can catch my weekly radio interview on Sundays with Gil Hoffman on Voice of Israel.com

Dialog (Panel Midgam Project) conducted a poll of 863 people with a 3% margin of error that was boradcast by Channel 10 on Feb 8 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
14 [11] Bayit Yehudi
13 [11] United Arab List
10 [20] Yesh Atid
10 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Shas
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

69 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Note: Prof. Fuchs told Channel 10 that it seems that Likud has slight edge over Zionist Union and that Bayit Yehudi’s decline has stopped.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #10 (week of Feb 1-Feb 7 2015) of 9 polls from 6 polling companies (2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 1 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Midgam, 0 Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 25.3 (24.4) [18] Likud

2nd 23.6 (25.2) [20] Zionist Union (Labor+Livni)

3rd 13.0 (14.7) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 12.0 (12.0) [11] United Arab List

5th 10.4 (09.4) [20] Yesh Atid

6th 07.5 (07.7) [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)

7th 07.2 (07.1) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 06.5 (07.1) [10] Shas

9th 05.4 (05.4) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10th 05.2 (05.3) [06] Meretz

11th 03.8 (03.3) [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

 

68.6 (68.0) [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition)

51.3 (52.0) [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition)

 

Changes: Likud replaces Zionist Union as the largest party.

Largest Gains: Yesh Atid gained 1 seat; Likud gained 0.9 of a seat and Yachad 0.5.

Biggest Losses: Bayit Yehudi dropped 1.7 seats; Zionist Union dropped 1.6 seats & Shas lost 0.6 of a seat.

 

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 10:

1 – Herzog’s Bad Week

Politics is a roller-coaster ride. In Israel we have a short election cycle. So here, our rollercoaster ride is running on fast-forward. Labor was averaging 13.4 seats in the polls when the election cycle officially started during the first week of December. That was 1.6 seats under the 15 seats Shelly Yachomich captured in 2013 and 0.4 of a seat over Ehud Barak’s 2009 showing. The following week Opposition Leader Herzog joined in an alliance with recently fired Justice Minister Livni. Herzog jumped from 13.4 seats without Livni to 22.2 seats with Livni. The alliance that went through a few name changes (Labor-Livni/Zionist Camp/Zionist Union) instantly became the largest party in the polls.

Following the dramatic shift of power between week 1 and week 2, Herzog and Netanyahu’s Likud ran neck-and-neck in a majority of polls taken between week 3 and week 8. Both lists took turns at the top, but overall Herzog had a slight lead. Herzog’s joint ticket peaked in week 9 with 25.2. However, this week the Zionist Union dropped 1.6 seats, but this wasn’t the worst news Herzog had this week.

Herzog doubled down on Manuel Trajtenberg as his candidate for Finance Minister. Trajtenberg is Herzog’s Eli Ochana. The socialist base of the Labor Party that backs MKs such as former leaders Shelly Yachomovich and Amir Peretz look at Trajtenberg as the the Netanyahu government’s rubber stamp for economic policy. The base was already not happy with Herzog for overlooking in-house options for the senior three ministry portfolios (Livni, Yadliin) but Trajtenberg added insult to injury.

The thing is that Herzog’s appointment of Trajtenberg to a reserved spot on his list and using him as the economic face of the party is more of a coalition building problem then an internal issue. Appearing on Channel 2 news earlier this week, an angry Livni said: “It is us or him. I expect you (Lapid) to inform the public that you commit to recommend us in order to stop Netanyahu”. Lapid refused to answer. Lapid has announced he wants to keep the Finance portfolio, so why would he do Herzog-Livni a favor?  Kahlon, a former Likud minister, has also said he is running to be Finance Minister, so why would Koolanu voice any support for a future Herzog administration? Meanwhile Netanyahu has avoided making any promises when it comes to what has become such a key portfolio for the coalition building process.

It wasn’t just the polls and Trajtenberg that made this the worst week of the 10-week campaign election cycle for Herzog. Liberman, Litzman and Deri ruled out a Herzog led government this week in various interviews. The dream of a Herzog government without Likud is over. Herzog’s silver lining is that the three are not ruling out a national unity government, but the reality of a national unity government with Netanyahu and Herzog is not considered likely at this point in time.

Another issue Herzog dealt with this week was the restructuring of his field campaign staff due to internal conflicts within the party. The restructuring unfolded as rumors of heated disagreements on key issues between Herzog and Livni emerged. Herzog ends this week with one ally left – Meretz, a party that is now fighting to stay over the new electoral threshold.

2 – Prime Minister: The three phase process and the importance of my bloc polling

The Prime Minister is chosen based on a process that includes three phases. In the first phase we have the electoral elections. The lists that are elected go on to the second phase which is nominating a candidate for Prime Minister at the President’s residence. The third phase is the newly elected Knesset voting to approve the new government with a minimum requirement of 61 seats.

At this point in the first phase we have two candidates for Prime Minister: Netanyahu & Herzog-Livni. Netanyahu’s Likud (25.3) has secured Bayit Yehudi (13.0) and Yachad (03.8) during the first phase. Herzog’s Zionist Union (23.6) has so far only secured Meretz (05.2). The United Arab List (12.0) might consider nominating Herzog in phase 2 but has ruled out voting for a Herzog (or any Zionist government) in phase 3. They might be in the game for the President’s residence but they are out of the game for approving any coalition. It is for this reason that I placed the Arab List in the ‘Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition’ bloc.

Of the 11 lists that are running in this election, this leaves us five parties in the middle. Yesh Atid (10.4) is not going to nominate Netanyahu to President Rivlin. It is just not going to happen. Lapid really does not like Netanyahu. Lapid is not married to Herzog either. If Herzog has no shot at forming a government, Lapid could end up in some long-shot scenarios in a Netanyahu government, assuming Netanyahu has 61 seats without him, to avoid sitting in the opposition. It is for this reason that I placed Yesh Atid in the ‘Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition’ bloc. The other four lists (Koolanu, Shas, UTJ & Yisrael Beitenu) ‘have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition’ bloc’. They might go to the President’s house without nominating Netanyahu but they haven’t ruled out negotiations to join his coalition, either with Herzog or without him. Historically, party leaders usually make a decision to nominate during phase 2 after receiving a concrete promise for a top portfolio from one of the Prime Minister candidates.

A lot can happen between phase 1 and phase 2, as well as between phase 2 and phase 3. In 2013, Livni didn’t nominate Netanyahu in phase 2 but was the first to sign a coalition agreement with him for phase 3. Shas & UTJ nominated Netanyahu in phase 2 and ended up in the opposition. In 2009, Livni gave a victory speech since Kadima won 28 seats in phase 1, but she couldn’t get any other party to nominate her in phase 2. Netanyahu won 27 seats in phase 1, but left the President’s house with the nomination of 65 MKs. Netanyahu’s maneuvers between phase 2 and phase 3 included bringing in Labor, who was to the left of Livni, and leaving out the National Union who nominated him for Prime Minister.

This bloc is not meant to say that this will be the next Netanyahu government by any means. This technical bloc that I have been putting at the bottom of all of my polls has a different level of importance. If the Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Yachad-Koolanu-Shas-UTJ-Yisrael Beitenu bloc has less than 61 seats, there will be no way for Prime Minister Netanyahu to form a new government.

3 – Eli Yishai’s Yachad Party & Shas Internal Politics

I was sitting with a person this week and he labeled Yishai’s joint list Yachad a collection of the ‘right-wing misfits’. It is a joint list of outcast MKs, Yishai is former Shas, Chetboun is former Bayit Yehudi, Marzel is sitting in for former MK Ben Ari and you also have a collection of smaller splinter groups that have made their way into unrealistic spots on their list. Yachad is now passing the new threshold in 8 of the 9 polls that were conducted this week, just missing threshold in the ninth poll. They are a protest vote for a collection of different communities from Sephardim to Chardal voters to Chabad to former Kahana supporters.

Shas has taken a dip this week. It is not just about Eli Yishai. The younger generation is disappointed that Former Minister Ariel Attias did not return to the list. The Bukharim are upset that MK Amnon Cohen is not on the list. The old right-wing establishment are upset MK Nissim Zeev, one of the party’s founders, is not on the list. Naming a leftist, Yitzchak Cohen, as Deri’s #2 was not a popular move in the right-wing camps of the party either. Former Yishai fans in the party are disgruntled and feel that former Yishai loyalist MK Avraham Michaeli was punished when he was placed in the 8th position behind all of the other returning Shas MKs. The northern supporters also expressed dissatisfaction with the placement of their representative, veteran MK Yitzchak Vaknin, at #7.

4 – Week 11 Preview

The election is in less than 40 days. The ground game is expected to pick up this week. Likud and Zionist Union are going to try to keep the focus on their head-to-head match-up. Bayit Yehudi is going to look to bounce back after a terrible two weeks of polling. The United Arab List is going to keep working on their plans to get out their vote. Yesh Atid is going to look to keep up their positive momentum which has brought them back to double-digits. Koolanu is going to attack Yesh Atid for centrist votes. UTJ is still focused on their internal organization for Election Day. The smaller parties (Shas, Yisrael Beitenu, Meretz and Yachad) will be fighting for screen-time.

For more analysis on the ‘Poll of Polls’ you can catch my weekly radio interview on Sundays with Gil Hoffman on Voice of Israel.com