Midgam conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 2 on September 6 2016. In addition they conducted a scenario poll with a new Yaalon party.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [11] Yesh Atid
22 [30] Likud
14 [08] Bayit Yehudi
13 [24] Zionist Union
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Scenario Poll: New Party of Yaalon
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
21 [30] Likud
21 [11] Yesh Atid
14 [08] Bayit Yehudi
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [24] Zionist Union
10 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [00] New Yaalon Party
06 [07] Shas
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [05] Meretz
70 [67] Right-Religious
50 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Updated KnessetJeremyPollingAverage:
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
so basically no change in the blocks and netanyaho would again be PM
The Drama!
Not even remotely believable, but will cause the usual useless chatter and speculation
You may have answered this. Is it out of question that Kulanu, and even Israel Beitenu join Yesh Arid? But I guess even if you had 61 with Joint List, is it accurate to say inclusion of Joint List to reach 61 is unworkable? Are there any circumstances in which religious would never join coalition with Yesh Atid? >
It is possible but unlikely for Kulanu and/or Yisrael Beitenu to choose Yair Lapid over Benjamin Netanyahu. I have discussed this point at length before in a number of my Weekend Perspective pieces. Lapid, Herzog or anyone else on the center-left are not able to match the deals Kahlon or Liberman can get from Netanyahu. If Lapid names Kahlon Finance Minister and Liberman Defense Minister that means he has very little to distribute between Yesh Atid, Zionist Union and Meretz. It is not a realistic scenario for a government to expect a larger party like Labor to accept a junior ministry or two.
The Arab Parties wouldn’t even nominate Herzog, so there is no logical situation where they would join a Lapid government. UTJ isn’t going to join a government with Lapid either. Litzman, the leader of UTJ refuses to even shake hands, talk, or look at Lapid when they are in the same room.
I’ve explained in the past that the only way there is a shot at a non-Netanyahu led government is if the Yesh Atid-Zionist Union-Meretz-Joint List block gets 61 or more seats and the Arabs sit in as a placeholder for Phase 2 to allow someone else to join in Phase 3.