| Party | Seats | Smith | -17 | Teleseker | -17 | New Wave | -17 | Panels | -19 | Dialog | -19 | Midgam | -19 | Geo | -20 | Maagar Mochot | -23 | TRI | -23 |
| Likud | 30 | 21 | -9 | 23 | -7 | 23 | -7 | 21 | -9 | 20 | -10 | 22 | -8 | 26 | -4 | 21 | -9 | 24 | -6 |
| Zionist Union | 24 | 25 | -1 | 25 | -1 | 23 | -1 | 25 | -1 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 | -3 | 24 | 24 | |||
| The Joint List | 13 | 13 | 12 | -1 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | -1 | 12 | -1 | 12 | -1 | |||||
| Yesh Atid | 11 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 | -2 | 13 | -2 | 12 | -1 | 12 | -1 | 12 | -1 | 13 | -2 | 14 | -3 | |
| Kulanu | 10 | 9 | -1 | 9 | -1 | 9 | -1 | 10 | 10 | 8 | -2 | 8 | -2 | 8 | -2 | 8 | -2 | ||
| Bayit Yehudi | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 | -3 | 12 | -4 | 11 | -3 | 12 | -4 | 11 | -3 | 13 | -5 | 13 | -5 | 12 | -4 |
| Shas | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 | 5 | -2 | |||||
| Yisrael Beitenu | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 5 | -1 | 5 | -1 | 7 | -1 | 5 | -1 | 4 | -2 | |||
| UTJ | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | -1 | 7 | -1 | ||||
| Merertz | 5 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | |||||||
| Yachad | 0 (3) | 4 | -1 | 4 | -1 | 4 | -1 | 5 | -2 | 5 | -2 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | -1 |
| Company | Off by | Last Poll |
| Smith | -17 | 13-Mar |
| Telesker | -17 | 13-Mar |
| New Wave | -17 | 6-Mar |
| Panels | -19 | 13-Mar |
| Dialog | -19 | 14-Mar |
| Midgam | -19 | 14-Mar |
| Geo | -20 | 8-Mar |
| Maagar Mochot | -23 | 12-Mar |
| TRI | -23 | 10-Mar |
The only pollster to correctly predict Netanyahu’s Phase 2 partners at 67 seats vs his non-Phase 2 partners at 53 seats is Teleseker.
Smith, New Wave, Dialog and Maagar Mochot predicted 66 seats, Panels, Midgam and TRI predicted 64, Geocartography predicted 70.
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And anyone who trusts anything Avi Degani says next time, shame on him.
Thanks for all your work on this site. Sorry your party didn’t do a little better
Great effort Jeremy, going to miss this forum.
I also am surprised and sorry that BY didn’t do better.
I always believed that Shas would up UTJ by at least 1 seat, that came true, I also believed that Shas would recover from the earlier polls that had them at 4/5, that came true. But I fully expected them to recover beyond what I believed was their core base of 7, to at least 8 possibly 9.
Other than the Yachad factor, I think its the surge to Likud caused to a great extent by the fear of the Labour polling well that did Shas in, but effected BY even more.
I think both parties can recover from this in the future. The now unfortunately wasted Yachad votes will surely be available next time.
Jeremy you did a brilliant job and I will miss your site.
Jeremy would you agree that If the voting turnout had been lower like 66% there would have been a completely different result in the right bloc.
Likud 27, BY 9, Kulanu 9, Shass 7 UTJ 7, YB 5 and Yachad 4 as I believe that BY, UTJ, and Yachads vote would have come out whatever the turnout.
Thanks everybody for the appreciation and the support.
I still have a few posts to release on the analysis of the Phase 1 results and there will be frequent updates in regards to Phase 2 and Phase 3.
Of course there will be post-election polls to examine.
I think when we have mapped where the increased turnout was it can help us determine the results in case of a lower turnout.
Yes. And it looks like the UTJ bubble did burst, although one commenter pointed out that it was more hat the total vote went up. I’m not that surprised; I suggested before that it is hard to keep up that level of enthusiasm.
So at the end, the blocs were predicted correctly by the polls.
Again, if you can’t poll the last 4 days of the campaign, credit or blame is ridiculous. More like blind luck. The exit polls are what’s more troubling.
Seems to me, New Wave has the most reliable polling methodology.
It is among those who were closest to predicting the final outcome.
Moreover, while it didnt predict the Likud in the lead, at least it didnt have ZU ahead by a wide margin.
I am also impressed with the methodology of Knesset Jeremy. His identification of blocs, then counting 66 seats within the bloc that supports Ntanyahu, proved predictively accurate.
I think there was also maybe a shift of 2 seats from left to right in the end. That may be not so much a shift as a bias in the polls.
The 4 lost mandates from Yachad were divided evenly between left and right, and Likud took 4 from Bayid Yehudi.
Koolanu and Yesh Atid – and also Meretz and the United Arab List – may or may not have traded a seat at the end.
Hello Jeremy,
How about some information please?
Likud set up coalition negotiation times for today:
9:30-11:30 Kulanu (Kahlon cancelled)
11:30-13:30 Bayit Yehudi
14:30-16:30 Shas
16:30-18:30 Yisrael Beitenu
19:00-21:00 UTJ