| Party | Channel 2 | Channel 10 | Channel 1 | Channel 99 | Channel 20 | Exit Poll AVG | Knesset Jeremy Model | Difference |
| Likud | 28 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 23 | 26.2 | 22 | 4.2 |
| Zionist Union | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 20 | 25.6 | 25 | 0.6 |
| Joint Arab List | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 1 |
| Yesh Atid | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11.8 | 12 | -0.2 |
| Kulanu | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9.6 | 9 | 0.6 |
| Bayit Yehudi | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8.4 | 12 | -3.6 |
| Shas | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7.2 | 7 | 0.2 |
| UTJ | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6.6 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5.2 | 5 | 0.2 |
| Meretz | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5.2 | 5 | 0.2 |
| Yachad | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3.2 | 4 | -0.8 |
According to the average of exit polls, Knesset Jeremy Model predicted 9 of 11 parties within one seat.
The exception being the transfer of votes from Bayit Yehudi to Likud in the final days at an advanced rate.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
why does the official results seem to be so different from exit polls/pre-election polls?
3 am…likud winning 31 to 24
Because a chunk of Likud voters lied to the exit pollsters. They’ve done this before. In ’96 for example. So, unless there’s a big change in the last 25% of the vote, and if Kulanu goes along, Netanyahu can probably form a 67 seat government.
I don’t think any statistically significant group of people would systematically lie to exit pollsters. and for what reason should they do that? why wouldn’t any other group of voters lie evenif there is any benefit? something else is happening
It’s been documented before. Republicans in the U.S. and Likud does so because they view exit pollsters as part of the hated “media.” So they want to make them look bad. With such a huge exit poll sample, what other explanation is there
It is true, conservatives do tend to … massage … their answers to pollsters by pretending they’re more centrist than they actually are. It is a documented phenomenon. I don’t know so much about Giora’s explanation why, but it is a documented phenomenon.
For it to be this bad though … something must be seriously wrong with the pollsters’ sampling or something. This is like a 4-seat swing from ZU to Likud compared with the exit polls. That’s not a rounding error or a sociological hiccup. That’s big.
You aren’t content to slander right wing voters as racists and sleaze balls, they’re liars too. Your hatred and small mindedness are really something to behold.
That was for Giora BTW
Giora I challenge you to provide evidence to your claim from a reputable source. If you cant then do everyone a favor and stop posting baseless hate. Thanks
There was an article by a reporter recently who stated that “Idiot”, Israel’s largest newspaper, suppressed a Likud-trending poll. He conceded everything.
There is good reason to hate the media; they are bigoted, lying scum. They hate Israel in the US, religious Jews in New York, and Charedim and “settlers” in Israel.
For Aaron: one example.
http://www3.nd.edu/~mgrecon/datafiles/articles/opinionpolls.html
Thanks for the link. However that’s not what I meant. You claimed “a chunk of Likud voters lied”. Where’s the evidence?
Past practice, as noted in the article. What’s your explanation as to why the exit polls were off from 5 to 9 seats regarding the margin between the two top parties.
I don’t have an explanation Giora. That said, I don’t make it my first order of business to plug the knowledge gap by insinuating that a block of people are liars. Bad faith and ill will from you seems to be a continual theme.
Shy Likudnik?
Likud 30+Kahlon 10+Bennett 8+UTJ 7+Shas 7+Liberman 6=68
So disappointing. Israel is walking off a cliff. I’m really worried at the backlash when this settlement building goes into overdrive. Intifada 3 here we go.
Take that smile off your face! The biggest losers are ALL the polls. The models of ALL the polls were so similar to each other and yet so seriously wrong, there is only one explanation, and that is that they all cheated by copying from each other’s results. So taking the average of the polls of others has also failed miserably. The pollsters have collectively misled the public and should all be thoroughly ashamed of their dismal failure
Besides the Likud results the polls were actually pretty accurate and I addressed that in my latest post. There was a shift within the blocs based on voters changing their minds.
There is zero evidence that this will happen.
Actually, you should want this, because it is the only thing that will bring Abbas to the table and cause a peace agreement.
Dear Jeremy, your model cannot be called a prediction as it is does just summerize the pre-election polls. What is the reason, that all polls are totally wrong ? Nevertheless your blog is very good and informative. Best regards Leon
Thanks Leon. My model prediction is a little different from the actual average (which I also posted) because I attempted to also predict the future trend. I think my latest post addresses the perception that the polls were completely wrong.
Why should anyone want violence MZK1?
I’d be more worried about the international reaction though, as Israel would give the impression of acting in bad faith.
Jeremy – to your point – do you think sitting in that coalition is in Kahlon’s interests? I would think if price from UTJ/Shas is too high, there might be a backlash. Do you think this coalition would be stable too?
Cupofcanada – the Israeli government should do what’s in the best interest of the people and nation. They should do what the voters elected them to do. I think of far less concern is the perception of acting in bad faith especially since the other “peace partner” eg Fatah, had a unity agreement with Hamas terrorists, because they glorify terror against Jews, because they demonize Jews in their state media, and because their charter still calls for the destruction of Israel. That’s pretty bad faith yet nobody seems to mind.
Sorry – my reply about zero evidence was to Terry.
CoC – I was referring about settlement building. Bibi has been pretty anti-settlement in practice. On the other hand, if Israel were to build actual new settlements and be backed by the US in doing so, Abbas will come running to the table. Nothing else will bring an agreement, or do you thing history is no guide?
Please remember what happened the last time Israel lurched to the right. I think it’s called a peace treaty with Egypt.
Because the media did in fact lie; this was conceded by a reporter just before the election, who said a Likud-trending poll was suppressed by “Idiot”, Israel’s largest newspaper.
People in the US do lie to exit pollsters because they consider it to be counter to democracy. We have an example in Florida during Bush-Gore where the TV called Florida for Gore before polls had closed in the panhandle, and this is known to have suppressed Republican voting.
Same question. Likud running way ahead of the exit polls and ZU way behind with more than half the votes counted. Are the polls off, or are there some huge Labor strongholds out there still to be counted?
Blow out win for Likud, Bibi and the right. Kahlon is no longer even needed to block any left wing coalition even if Unitled List Joined. Kahlon now has to accept what Bibi gives him. As I said last night Bayit Yehudi voters went to likud as did most of the 12-16% of those who were undecided.
Not so. As of now, center-left has 53 seats. So, Kulanu’s 9 or 10 still is the difference.
The right with Kahlon is at 69, Kahlon has 9. so the left has 51. Historic right wing win
With 81 percent of precincts reporting before dawn on Wednesday, the Likud holds a seven-seat edge over Zionist Union.
According to the official up-to-the-minute tally, Likud wins 31 seats while Zionist Union comes in second at 24 seats.
The parties that follow are Yesh Atid (11); Joint Arab List (11); Kulanu (10); Bayit Yehudi (8); Shas (8); Yisrael Beytenu (6); United Torah Judaism (6); and Meretz (5).
Eli Yishai’s far-right outfit Yahad has so far failed to attract the sufficient number of votes to gain entry into the Knesset.
As post below, right now the center-left has 52 and Kulanu 10.
The point of this post was to examine the exit polls vs my model, not to give exact results as they are coming in.
As the official numbers become more clear we see that the swing to the Likud was even larger than initially expected.
Did you see the article where a reporter conceded that Yidiot suppressed a poll? I did not see the original.
Yachad’s at 3% and dropping. Looks like they won’t make the cut.
Looks like most Yachad voters went Likud, which would explain the huge surge in Likud numbers.
Right now it’s 58 for the right, 52 for the center-left and 10 for Kulanu.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nehemia_G/status/578013075795668992/photos
The full army vote will not be all in until Thursday at which point the right will gain at least one seat.
The army vote is likely to give Shass 8 seats at the expense of UTJ.
It won’t help Yachad?
I could have sworn that you JUST posted the center left had 58 and you were pleased.
If you mean posted 6 hours earlier, based on the initial exit polls, you would be right.
My point wasn’t to make you defensive on the numbers it was to illustrate how fast the numbers changed.
ZU is left-to-far left, hardly center-left.
Here are the near final results.
Likud 30
ZU 24
JAL 13
YA 11
Kulanu 10
BY 8
Shass 7
UJT 7
YB 6
Meretz 4
Yachad 0
Only 4 people really wanted elections.
Bennet, Yishai, Lieberman and Litzman.
This morning Litzman is the only one who does not regret his decision.
Rabot machashovet blev ish
Let’s see. I can still see Bibi going with Bennet or even a so-called unity government.
Lev Melachim B’yad Hashem; Kol Asher Rotze Yatenu. And that goes for election also.
With a decent Likud margin do you think Kahlon still demands unity?
That’s the question.
There will be no unity government.
If I was Herzog I wouldn’t accept in any event.
After his statement as to a Palestinian state, and his “the Arabs are voting” fearmongering, serving in a Netanyahu government should be verboten for Labor. And Yesh Atid for that matter.
I wish.
He might. Much easier for him to push his economic agenda with Labor and Hatunah in the majority. But Bibi would probably refuse to sit with Herzog with these new numbers, and Kahlon won’t walk away from the government just to make a point about national unity.
Unity government probably wouldn’t last long in any case.
A lot of people are making out Kahlon to be some sort of superhuman. The guy simply wants the Finance portfolio. Anything else is (anti Bibi sentiment, national unity agenda, hidden leftist beliefs) is all speculation . Unless someone cares to provide a source.
Yeah, I tend to agree with you there.
No. He wants the Finance portfolio not national unity (specifically).
What makes you think he’d ‘demand’ unity? He isn’t Buji’s houseboy, he’s an activist and politician looking for the Finance portfolio.
Get a grip on yourself. It’s over for ZU most likely, both as a coalition player and a cohesive party.
I’m wondering if Bibi will make a play to split HaTnuah off from ZU.
In retrospect.. Quite complicated decision making for our typical riGht wing voter. More than a handful of people I know would have loved to vote bayit but because of the impending probability that we would have to deal with a Herzog led government..They voted for bibi..I’m sure that goes for some yachad and lieberman people ad well.. I have to believe if there was a vote between bayit and likud today that did not involve the possibility of a left wing government…i believe the numbers would have been closer to 24 to 16 or something in that area. I hope bibi understand that and treats Bennett with the respect he deserves as his natural partner
Here’s hoping Jeremy’s asleep.
Best comment of the night
I as everyone else following this election I am shocked. Bibi simply clocked him hard. Nobody saw this coming
Let’s be real, Bibi didn’t “clock Herzog hard.” The leftist bloc grew considerably, and the only reason Bibi is at 29 as opposed to 24 is that he made a conscious decision to cannibalize BY.
Yes, Bibi is likely the next Prime Minister of Israel. BUT his coalition has a hard ceiling of 66, assuming he gets Kahlon (which is likely at this point), the other 54 seats will be livid – and united – at his late-campaign demagoguery, and Kahlon will only be as loyal as his agenda is passable. Assuming the easy coalition (Bibi-YB-BY-Shas-UTJ-Kahlon), this new government will be smaller than the one he dissolved when he called this election.
So, Bibi won … ish. He certainly did better than I and a lot of watchers would have expected.
Turned a 26 to 22 unfavorable poll estimate to a 30 to 24 win. That’s a clocking Lewis.
First of all, 29-24.
And second of all, no … tonight was pulling a rabbit out of your hat and barely hanging on. If Bibi had “clocked” anything we wouldn’t be talking about Kahlon right now and Bibi, BY, and YB would be cruising toward a coalition of 70+ with Yachad comfortably over the threshold.
And the Arabs certainly wouldn’t have 14 freaking seats.
So no, Bibi didn’t clock anybody. He looks poised to squeak by despite weak numbers. I call that winning … ish.
You’re letting your bias get the best of you Lewis. If Buji won 29 to 24 you’d be saying the right was KO’d and Bibi was done. In the reverse it’s barely a win? You sound silly. By all accounts it’s a major blow to ZU. Read the news much?
This is no “clocking”, see the next post.
Bibi will thread together coalition that will have a 6 vote majority. But those 6 votes are quantized. And in this arrangement, the smallest quanta is 6 votes. So his ruling coalition will hang by one quanta. And it won’t matter (much) if that quanta is a group of 1 vote or 6 votes.
Bibi would have been far better off if Yahad had gotten 4 mandates. Even if Likud had lost 4. But Bibi made his own bed by tacking a little too far to the right.
This will be interesting.
The right grew and is bigger than in last government
Not really. This could just as easily be a 58-62 Leftist government. Kahlon’s party is not really a Rightist party. He will only sit with the right because he will get more power there.
And with Kahlon as an integral part of this government, at least domestically, he will pull it to the left.
I just hope Kahlon is (at least somewhat) successful before the next early election… I need an apartment 😉
Can I disagree with both sides here? If anything the left/right breakdown seems exactly the same as before. The biggest difference seems to Likud and ZU both consolidating support on each side, with Likud consolidating more support than ZU was able to.
As the results get closer and closer to 100% in, I tend to agree with Canada here. The end result is a 67-seat right-center-haredi coalition with Bibi at the helm. Which is basically where we were last June. Except now the Prime Minister of Israel is anti two-state and the Arabs are the third largest party in the country.
So yeah, a status-quo election whose end result was just a consolidation of the two blocs’ opposition to each other.
What that is not is Bibi “clocking” anybody. Lest we forget, the last 67-seat right-center-haredi coalition dissolved and Bibi had to call elections early.
At least you admit they’re Leftists.
Likud 29 (30 after the army vote)
ZU 23
JAL 14 (good for them)
YA 11
Kul 9
BY 8
Shas 7
BY 6
UJT 6
Meretz 5
+1 based on current fractions of a mandate to either BY, UTJ, ZU. Most likely ZU.
National Unity won’t happen. Likud + ZU is 54, allowing any one of YA, Kul, BY, Shas, UAL to make a Nat Uni Col (forget UAL, as such a miracle would never happen). If there are 4 to choose from, they’ll come cheap. None of the four would want to come cheap. They would all get better deals w/o ZU.
Looks like a big Right win, but not really. Likud + Kul + BY + Shas + YB + UTJ is 66, any one party gets pissed, it collapses.
Vs ZU + UAL + YA + Kul + Meretz is 63, any one party gets pissed, it collapses.
It still all sits with Kul and where will he get a better deal.
This.
Since JAL has 4 separate components that would be harder to keep in line, a ZU col would be much less stable.
Not that a Likud col would be rock solid. It wouldn’t be. But if the appropriate perks are handed to the appropriate parties, they would be easier to hold together longer. Maybe it will be long enough for Kahlon to (partially) fix the housing market.
Net-net, Kahlon will be able to do more in a Likud government… And if he succeeds, he may be setting himself up to be the next PM, which will also make him a target. He best be very clean, and humble.
Agreed re: the Joint List. I doubt Odeh could deliver more than 7 of those 14 seats to a coalition even if he wanted to. Maybe he can consolidate the party between now and the next election.
I don’t see 53 as enough of an incentive for Kahlon to go left. Especially with Likud having a 5 seat lead. They would have had to have gotten to at lest 55 with Labor at worst one or two seats from Likud for that to happen. The saving grace is that Netanyahu will be totally dependent on Khalon for the government’s survival.
Final results, based on over 96% of votes (Still without soldiers etc..) – Over 4 million votes.
Likud 29
ZU 24
JAL 14
YA 11
Kulanu 10
BY 8
Shas 7
UJT 6
YB 6
Meretz 5
Yachad 0
Right (43) + Religious (13)=56 (56.75 in the Final Knesset Jeremy Poll of Polls 2015 – Weekly Average #15). With Kahlon 66 (65.56 in the Final Knesset Jeremy Poll of Polls 2015 – Weekly Average #15)
Center-left (40) + Arabs (14)=54 (54.44 in the Final Knesset Jeremy Poll of Polls 2015 – Weekly Average #15)
Kahlon=10 (8.81 in the Final Knesset Jeremy Poll of Polls 2015 – Weekly Average #15)
So we can all agree that Jeremy is the bigger winner in the election. His model, and his breakdown of it performed very well, even in the face of a big miss by the polls for Likud.
Cheers Jeremy. Great site, great work.
Funny how you can almost guess what district just reported. One time was Likud +10k, ZU +8k, JAL +14k.
Or, another was Likud +2k, ZU +1k, UTJ +2k, YB +1k, Yac +1k.
There is a strange amusement in this.
Top 5 stories from tonight:
1) Bibi holds off late surge by Herzog and will likely be PM
2) Moshe Kahlon is the new kingmaker
3) JAL is now comfortably the third biggest party and spoiling for a fight (JAL is this year’s YA)
4) Bibi drops support for two-state and sets stage for a series of long, loud fights with allies abroad
5) Why the hell did Bibi and Lieberman call this election?
6) Early elections likely … again
Except for #4.
With the correct resident in the White House. Results of the election are really orthogonal to fights abroad.
If anything is affected it would only be the volume. Not the degree nor the severity. Just buy ear plugs.
CURRENT resident.
(what a difference)
Don’t discount Europe. Less relevant militarily, but the EU is Israel’s largest trading partner, and has clout.
I don’t think Bibi’s specific comments will be as relevant even in the US as the general trajectory of his government over the last few years.
Bibi’s smart though. He could veer centre. Who knows.
Already talk that if the Israeli government doesn’t recognize the right of Palestinians to a state, the U.S. will stop vetoing pro-Palestinian UN resolutions.
Where you read that Giora?
On Tuesday, moderate Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told CNN that it was “hard to imagine” there would be no consequences from Netanyahu’s new one-state views.
Bibi has placed all his chips on the Republican Congress, which has no say over how the U.S. votes in the U.N. Schiff—who often reflects the view of the White House—hinted that the Obama administration might consider selectively lifting the American veto in the Security Council that has protected Israel for more than six decades.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/03/18/bibi-s-ugly-win-will-harm-israel.html
They’ll make the threat but the US won’t drop the veto yet. I would expect other pressure from the US and EU though. Potentially a lot of it depending on how Netanyahu acts. It helps the BDS crowd a lot too.
I hope this doesn’t empower Hamas at the expense of Fatah though.
The polls and exit polls were garbage.
One has to point the finger at the poll companies.
Are they influenced by the same journalism standards that afflict Haaretz ?
Perhaps they were publishing an ideal state in their minds.
In the event it was very useful to patriotic Israelis and the prospect of Labour scared people into voting for Likud
Well done I say and up yours poll companies!!!
Besides the Likud results the polls were actually pretty accurate and I addressed that in my latest post. There was a shift within the blocs based on voters changing their minds.
The exit polls were still pretty bad though.
A “crushing victory,” says the Times of Israel. A “sweeping victory,” says the Jerusalem Post. A “shock election victory,” says Ynet News.
Posters here who obviously favor the Left, “Not so much of a victory.” Okay…
Takeaways:
1. A 10-plus switch in positions for Likud (going from starting election day at 5 or more down, then moving to 6 or more over ZU) gives Bibi a surprising yet convincing victory.
2. No unity government. It’s not necessary and the self-absorbed personalities on the Left are better off sitting in opposition rather than constantly infighting in Bibi’s cabinet.
3. Bibi’s last minute electioneering panic, coupled with a promise of “no Palestinian state if I’m PM” paid off far more than Livni’s demanding a rotating PM, then backing out from rotation, then forcing Buji to reinstate the PM rotation once again (on election day.) This was no time to be flip-flopping on promises, and the voters punished the ZU for it.
4. With Bibi on the phone with the Haredim, with Kahlon, having already spoken with the PM, claiming today he’s “pleased” with the election results, and with the ZU’s Stav Shaffir conceding her party will “serve the country from the opposition,” you should have all the clues you need in terms of what the next government will look like. (If not, see point 2.)
5. The big losers are Yesh Atid (though no one in the media wants to discuss the fact that Lapid’s bubble has burst) and Yachad (who supposedly missed qualifying by a mere 12,000 votes.)
6. We can finally stop referring to the Joint Arab List as a “Party” and watch them split up again into the same old competing Arab factions they always were in the Knesset. Still, the voting Arab population has awakened and must be taken into account: let’s hope for a pro-Zionist Arab faction to emerge and dominate over all the firebrand Zoabi-types in the coming years.
7. Don’t forget to add another rightwing seat or two from the Army!
This is quite a good result. The real losers are the extreme right. 4 weeks ago it looked like that BY + YACHAD would receive 18 seats which would have resulted in Israel being internationally ostracised. Now we have a moderate right wing government.
Moderate? In what sense is it moderate? It’s the most right-wing government in Israel’s history.
Giora,
If we like it or not right through this campaign the majority of Israel’s were always going to vote for the right. However in the beginning of the election campaign it looked like that the 2 most right winged parties BY and Yachad who at times were polling 22 seats (Likud was at that time only polling 21 seats) were going to be the most influential in any Netanyahu government. That has thank g-d changed.
Yes we now are going to have a right winged government. All I am saying I would rather it is led by a relatively moderate Likud with Kulanu and the more moderate Charedim then a government where Bennet and Marzel were calling all the shots.
Bibi and the Likud have not formed their government yet Giora. It’s still in the coalition building stage. So your comment that it’s the most right wing government in Israeli history is just silly isn’t it?
True. It’s not as bad as it could have been. And everything’s relative. But in no objective analysis of the political spectrum in Israel, and in democratic countries around the world, can the word moderate apply to this government.
Aaron, I’m just taking Netanyahu at his word. Labor has already ruled out joining. YA is the only other possibility and, if nothing else, I can’t see them joining a government where UTJ and Shas will have the upper hand.
You really love to speak in absolutes don’t you? I’m guessing that many people in Israel and out would think a coalition without Yachad and with Kahlon, Leiberman and the Haredim would be moderate. Moshe thinks so. I think so. Even you said that YB and the Haredim were suitable coalition partners a few days ago when you were building fantasy Buji coalition scenarios. Now they’re radicals because they’re not in YOUR preferred coalition? Make up your mind.
Is it now unobjective to say those very same parties are not moderate simply because you’re a poor loser and are grasping at straws to turn this into some sort of a win when the left got pummeled?
Giora – why on earth would a fervent Likud hater like yourself take Bibi at his word?
Please. I’m trying to conduct political analysis. Shas and UTJ wouldn’t have been any more moderate in a Labor coalition, but they and YA would have been more evenly balanced in terms of demands because it was a Labor lead coalition. As opposed to a Likud lead coalition, where the religious parties are likely to have the upper hand.
You’re very good at criticism, but very short when it comes to analysis.
Coming from someone who already deemed a nonexistent government as the most right wing in Israeli history; I’ll take your comment with a grain of salt.
Bibi freezes settlements, destroys settlements, and throws Jews out of their homes. This is a right-winger?
And BTW, if Yachad had squeaked by, Marzal would not have been aboard. 3.9, not 4.
Anyone else now REALLY HOPING that Likud and BY would have formed a joint list where there would have been 1 likudnik for every BY-candidate? I at least do – then BY would have got 18 seats and Likud ONLY 19 seats! Think how GOOD that would feel like, contrary to the current result!
However, that did not happen – why one could now wonder – but it could happen in the future. So if Netanyahu will keep his promise not to agree to an arab state in Yesha, then maybe in the next election campaign Likud, BY and Yachad (and others? Kulanu? YB?) could form a joint list or simply (permanently???) merge into ONE nationalist party. This could be coupled with Shas and UTJ either forming a joint list, joining the nationalist list or whatever.
This idea could be the result of (another) electoral reform. This reform could take place as many (big) parties see the big number of parties as troublesome. Maybe raising the threshold to 10% making 12 seats the minimum. Or some other percentage.
The good consequence of this would be that the nationalist bloc (or parts of it) would unit under one umbrella – where there could be different factions with their own leaders and all the leaders would together rule the umbrella party. The factions could be the following: Religious Zionists, Hareidi, traditional orthodox and Secular. The umbrella party does what the majority of faction leaders want.
You can reduce the effective number of parties more organically by introducing districts rather than creating a threshold if that’s what you want. I’d argue that left or right, a 10% threshold would probably be a bad idea. 2-5% is more than international norm, and as you can see, a high threshold can have unanticipated results for both the left and the right.
If you had 8 member districts elected proportionally, the effective threshold in each district would be roughly 8-9%, but there’d be no threshold at the national level, so if two members of the same faction get pissed off at each other, that wouldn’t suddenly meaning 100,000 votes go into the garbage, or entire sections of Israeli society writing of democracy.
It’d also make open lists more feasible, which can help build bigger tent parties too, and means even though there’d be a reduction in choice between parties, there’d be an increase in choice within parties.
Based on the academic literature you could expect a reduction in the effective number of parties from ~8 to ~4 and a reduction in the number of parties in government to around ~2 at a time.
Thoughts? Obviously my leanings are in a different direction than you on a lot of things, but electoral reform is best approached from a non-partisan standpoint I think, if only because doing it for partisan reasons can have unintended consequences lol.
Can post some sources if you’re interested. Dunno how okay Jeremy is with a bunch of links in a post, but worst case can find a way to email them to you or something.
Also re: effective number of parties, just to be clear that’s a term that refers to both the number of parties and how evenly split seats are between them, not just the raw number of parties. So an effective number of parties of 8 would be the equivalent 8 parties with 15 MKs each. An effective number of parties of 4 would be the equivalent of 4 parties with 30 MKs each. In practice though, that could be something like a party two parties with 40 MKs, and a handful of smaller ones. In the 19th Knesset the effective number of parties was 7.28. Wiki has the mathematical definition if you’re interested.
Cheers. Would love to hear your thoughts, or those of anyone else.
Yes, I guess “defining” Israel as a district-based system, like the US, would be just fine. That would then surely mean fewer parties contending for the seat of a district. For example in a district where Likud is stronger than BY, YB,… then maybe the parties in question would agree to back the Likud candidate (if that person is seen as having a good chance to win the seat. And similarly in the opposite way in other places.
Basically this would mean creating the “house of representatives” of Israel. I do not know about a senate – a senate with representatives from 3-5 parties would for me, following US politics very in detail, sound strange. But the idea to also create a senate should certainly be considered.
I do not know if the idea to establish “open lists” is good – as a Scandinavian I am used to see that system mean that a so-called (from my perspective there are no REAL right-wing parties in Scandinavia) right-wing party can in the parliament be very split on issues like taxation, the extent to which the state is involved in the economy, etc. and there can be “right-wing” politicians that are really centrists or on certain issues even leftist. So what I am trying to say is that when voting and looking at the candidate list of parties, you cannot as a voter be “sure that your preferred candidate benefits from your vote – instead the vote can benefit a candidate (from the party) that you hope won’t get in.
So, in Israel’s case an “open list”-system could mean that the ruling party Likud would not be classified as a right-wing party but instead be more in line with YA or former Kadima – which would not be good. On the other hand, BY could have the chance to include hareidi candidates and more secular candidates in the party Knesset-group.
The trouble with the US is they use single member districts, which pushes towards a two party system, and in the absence of one makes coalition building very difficult. With a two party system you’d have alternating Labor and Likud governments – Likud would govern until people get pissed off at them and elect a Labor government, then Labor would govern until people get pissed off at them and things revert to Likud. If people get pissed off at both Labor and Likud at the same time, then people are just screwed (and this is more or less the situation in the US today).
If you keep districts at a larger size than that, like 4-8, you end up with a bit more choice, but not a huge proliferation of parties. If one party on the right fails, people could decide if they want to give the left a chance, or if they want to just choose a different party from the right. Under the American system they’re pretty much forced to lurch left in that situation. It’d also better reflect Israel’s diversity – trying to craft a single right-religious-Kulanu party would be a nightmarish endavour, as it would for the equivalent party on the left.
You wouldn’t need a senate though (and I would suggest that one would be a very bad idea, as that tends to create deadlock).
Re: ideological changes in parties due to open lists, I agree to some extent – one would expect the parties to broaden – but I wouldn’t think that would skew Likud either to the centre or to the right. It’d just make it bigger and a bit more diverse. Would you really view that as a bad thing? Netanyahu has to included centrists to build his coalition anyways – does it matter if those centrists are elected as part of Likud instead of Kulanu?
Certainly in Israel’s case there could be a need for every district to elect 1-6 (or a more narrow gap) representatives – that could mean the 1-6 top candidates in the election.
About open lists: surely Likud including “more” centrist or center-right candidates/representatives could not harm – but I just think that this should happen through (closed) party primaries, i.e. if centrist voters want (more) centrist candidates on the Likud list then these voters should join Likud in order to be able to vote in the primary (and also “unofficially” commit to vote Likud in the general election – preferable!). In this way there would exist at least SOME control over who will be a Likud MK.
But about the idea of ONE single nationalist list:
Of course there can be many opinions about how to establish this list, technical bloc or permanent merger being the two obvious ideas.
However let me put out a roadmap for a permanent merger. So there could be the following factions: Religious Zionists, Hareidi, traditional orthodox and Secular. Every faction chooses its own leader and has its own primary/other process for determining its part of the (umbrella) party list. Which faction that gets to “start” the list, would be decided based on rotation between the factions or why not based on which faction has the biggest amount of members. The outlook of the list could be the following:
1. traditional orthodox
2. Secular
3. Religious Zionists
4. Hareidi
5. traditional orthodox
6. Secular
7. Religious Zionists
8. Hareidi
9. traditional orthodox
10. Secular
11. Religious Zionists
12. Hareidi
…..
Policy decisions would be based on the majority vote of the faction leaders and the faction leaders would TOGETHER lead the party and decide how to act.
So of course when there now are so many parties that cannot establish a joint list – why would this satisfy seculars like Lieberman, Kahlon and others? And how could (right-wing) hareidim accept this, a format where there exists secular leadership? And what about religious zionists?
religious zionists: now they are split between BY, Likud, Yachad – which leads to hard choices for religious zionist voters; they have to choose if they are voting Likud to support politicians like Zeev Elkin, Danny Danon, Tzipi Hotovely,… and in the process hurts the only religious zionist party (BY). Instead they could support the nationalist list, knowing that all the (right-wing) religious zionists are in one place and no one is “stabbed in the back”.
Hareidi: this could be acceptable to them as they could (still) have a religious council choosing their part of the list (and they would not be forced into having primaries. Also they should certainly see that this arrangement could give them more power over policy in certain common interests (common with at least one other faction).
traditional orthodox: well the rest religious orthodox persons (I guess this would mean the less religious part of Likud; others interested). I cannot (right now) figure out a particularly good reason for these guys to not want to implement this model.
Secular: all the right and center-right secular persons interested (from BY, Likud, YB(?), Kulanu(?)) would form this faction. And they would all be in one place and not spread out on 3-5 lists (which makes it hard for these voters to choose which list to support . instead it would be clear that this kind of voter would support the nationalist list.
SO COMMENTS, PLEASE!!!!!
Just read that Yachad missed the threshold by 11600 votes. Has the soldiers’ votes already been counted in the results? And if not, can those votes then lift Yachad into Knesset, maybe get BY an additional mandate and/or drop Meretz out (which would really be helpful)?
Meretz has a 25,448 vote cushion as of me writing this, so you’re probably out of luck there.
Politics without Meretz would be interesting though. Would some sort of Hadash-Meretz hybrid emerge?
Cupofcanada – Meretz made it but it was quite a debacle. Galon stepped down and rightly so after a firm public rejection of their platform and candidates. I could see a Meretz Hadash hybrid, maybe with the Greens and Alei Yarok in particular after the JAL falls apart.
Isn’t Meretz just a victim of the Arab List success? They get a lot of Arab votes.
1 is unlikely, 3 is very unlikely and 2 is possible.
I have been following KnessetJeremy since the start of this election cycle. Turns out I wasted every minute I spent at this site as he is about as clueless as I am. Polls shmolls. This country is headed for international isolation and full-on pariah status.
Well 22 for Likud instead of 30 and a 3 seat lead for ZU instead of a 6 seat one for Likud, is rather guess work than analysis, hm?
Jeremy,
Can yachad party be saved by soldiers vote? last election Otzma(marzel) got 5113 votes and is 2.4% more than election 18th of knesset. Knowing now the 99% of this election counted balllots and BY is about 2+ for one in votes to Yachad…(total numbers) can this reflect on soldier votes thus giving aroung 11k votes needed? o knesset 19th soldeirs gave 32k votes to by and 5113…can it yachad pass 3,25% needed? btw good job in all the season of polls and analyzes!
They are too far. I don’t see that happening.
Thanks for the support 🙂
when will the soldiers’ votes be included?
I think it’s ridiculous that public polling isn’t permitted to be released the last 4 days. It probably would have picked up the movement to Likud. Not only makes a lot of the pollsters look bad, but keeps the public uninformed.
I agree, it seems very odd.
How about Yidiot suppressing a poll that trended Likud? I myself have seen a paper in explaining a poll, contradict the actual poll, printed only a few pages away.
I think at one point there was a law in New York prohibiting releasing partial poll results.
But if we have election laws limiting what people can do, then this seems fair. I think that the prohibition of blessings is outright discrimination; no-one limits the professors, and the universities are heavily subsidized, although most people don’t know this.
Winners and losers:
Winners…
1. Netanyahu. No doubt about it, his shift from 4-5 seats down to 5-6 seats up is an impressive comeback that will likely get him another term. Still, he needs to start thinking about endorsing a successor–five terms would be nothing short of miraculous.
2. Kahlon. Virtually guaranteed the Finance Ministry, which is exactly what he wanted. He’s got to be quite pleased right now.
3. Joint Arab List. I know, I know, they’re likely to fragment back into four parties in a matter of weeks. But they’ve shown that organized Arab voters can send a message. Let’s hope for a Zionist Arab party in the near future.
4. Deri. For him, treading water in this election is a victory. With the Haredim likely in the next government, they will regain some of the influence that had been stripped from them by Lapid’s machinations.
5. Knesset Jeremy. Just judging from the comments, it’s clear that far more people are paying attention to this blog than during the last election. At this rate he could soon become the Israeli Nate Silver (popular American poll analyst and number cruncher).
Losers…
1. Bennett. Clearly his attempts at expanding Bayit Yehudi have utterly failed. Instead of gaining seats, as it appeared would happen several weeks ago, the party actually lost seats. A party split or leadership challenge is probably in his future.
2. Yishai. His gamble to split off from Shas and unite with Strong Israel leaves him out of the Knesset.
3. Meretz. As with Bayit Yehudi, for a while it appeared that they would pick up lots of seats, but instead they ended up losing seats, as the public rejected their platform and even much of their voting base appears to have abandoned them.
4. Lapid and Livni. Yesh Atid went from second largest party in the Knesset and a major player in the government to barely cracking double digits and stuck as third largest opposition party. Worse yet, with Kulanu almost certainly in government, Yesh Atid is no longer the most important centrist voice, and is likely to decline into irrelevance as it will have little more left to distinguish it than its status as a staunch anti-Haredi party. Meanwhile, Livni’s perennial and increasingly desperate attempts to become Prime Minister continue to fail. When will she finally accept defeat and retire from politics? Clearly both Lapid and Livni made a mistake by antagonizing Bibi too much.
5. Spell check. An absolute fail when it comes to Israeli politics. Yesh Atid becomes “Yeah Arid,” Lapid becomes “Lipid”…
I just like how they spell John Kerry’s name in Hebrew……
Nice summary. A few comments.
1. I would say Nate Silver is not so much popular as highly regarded for his successes.
2. It is a shame that Yishai did not get in. I’ve always said that election “reforms” always hurt the moderates. It knocked out Poalai Agudah and Maimad, and now it knocked out Yachad, whose Chareidi / Religious Zionist hybrid was a beautiful thing, bringing back memories of Poalai Agudah’s popular Knesset members.
3. The loss of Yachad opens the door for a Shas resurgence. Unfortunately, this means that it is in Bibi’s interest not to allow them any gains on social legislation.
4. On the other hand, Bennet clearly saved Mizrachi, which would not have met the threshold, and Yair Lapid has done much better than his father, whose party disappeared after its initial triumph. Of course, Tommy Lapid’s “success” in souring Chareidi/Religious Zionist relations persists to this day.
5. I still think Lapid could be a kingmaker. I suspect Bibi will use him against the religious parties.
I am neither celebrating nor mourning. I am waiting.