Israel Electioms | Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Tag Archive: Israel Electioms

Week 1 (Sep 2019 Elex): Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: Likud 35.4, Blue & White 33.5, Yisrael Beitenu 8; Right-Religious Bloc 67.8

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment

June 6, 2019

Place	Party	Leader	KnessetJeremyAvearge	6-Poll-AVG	April Results
1st	Likud+Kulanu	Netanyahu	36	35.4	39
2nd	Blue & White	Gantz	34	33.5	35
3rd	Yisrael Beitenu	Liberman	8	8	5
4th	United Torah Judaism	Litzman	8	7.5	8
5th	Shas	Deri	7	7	8
6th	Hadash-Taal	Odeh	7	6.3	6
7th	United Right List	Peretz	5	5.2	5
8th	Meretz	Zandberg	5	5.2	4
9th	HaYamin HeHadash	Bennett	5	4.7	0
10th	Labor	Gabbai	5	4.3	6
11th	Raam-Balad	Abbas	0	2.9	4
12th	Zehut	Feiglin	0	0	0
13th	Gesher	Levy	0	0	0
	Right-Religious Bloc		69	67.8	65
	Center-Left-Arab Bloc		51	52.2	55

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 6 polls that were released from May 27 to June 3 (2 Panels, 2 Direct Polls, 1 Maagar Mochot, 1 Panel Project HaMidgam, 0 Smith, 0 Teleseker & 0 Midgam).

Note #3: The right-religious bloc is polling at a high of 72 and a low of 66. The center-left-Arab bloc is polling at a high of 54 and a low of 48.

Note #4: Kulanu has merged into the Likud. Labor did not pass in one poll poll. HaYamin HeHadash, Zehut & Gesher were not polled in one of the polls.

Comment

The Pollster Scorecard for the April 2019 Israeli Election

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment

Below is a summary of each poll/prediction that was released before the polling blackout from April 6-April 9 2019. For the third consecutive election cycle the KnessetJeremy model was more accurate than any of the final polls that were released to the public.

Party/Pollster	Actual Results	KnessetJeremy	Smith	Direct Polls	Midgam
Blue & White	35	29	29	29	30
Likud	35	30	27	31	26
Shas	8	5	6	6	5
United Torah Judaism	8	6	7	7	7
Hadash-Taal	6	7	7	7	7
Labor	6	9	9	7	11
Yisrael Beitenu	5	4	4	4	4
United Right List	5	6	6	6	5
Meretz	4	5	5	6	5
Kulanu	4	4	5	0	5
Raam-Balad	4	4	4	4	4
HaYamin HeHadash	0	6	6	7	6
Zehut	0	5	5	6	5
Gesher	0	0	0	0	0
Place	Actual Results	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Right-Religious Bloc	65	66	66	67	63
Center-Left-Arab Bloc	55	54	54	53	57

Party/Pollster	Actual Results	Project	Teleseker	Panels	Maagar Mochot	Miskar
Blue & White	35	28	30	30	31	28
Likud	35	28	31	29	28	31
Shas	8	5	4	5	6	6
United Torah Judaism	8	6	6	6	7	6
Hadash-Taal	6	6	8	8	7	7
Labor	6	11	8	10	9	10
Yisrael Beitenu	5	4	0	4	0	0
United Right List	5	7	6	7	7	8
Meretz	4	5	6	6	7	5
Kulanu	4	4	5	0	6	0
Raam-Balad	4	4	4	4	0	4
HaYamin HeHadash	0	6	6	6	6	7
Zehut	0	6	6	5	6	8
Gesher	0	0	0	0	0	0
Place	Actual Results	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
Right-Religious Bloc	65	66	64	62	66	66
Center-Left-Arab Bloc	55	54	56	58	54	54

Party/Pollster	KnessetJeremy	Change	Smith	Change	Direct Polls	Change
Blue & White	29	6	29	6	29	6
Likud	30	5	27	8	31	4
Shas	5	3	6	2	6	2
United Torah Judaism	6	2	7	1	7	1
Hadash-Taal	7	-1	7	-1	7	-1
Labor	9	-3	9	-3	7	-1
Yisrael Beitenu	4	1	4	1	4	1
United Right List	6	-1	6	-1	6	-1
Meretz	5	-1	5	-1	6	-2
Kulanu	4	0	5	-1	0	4
Raam-Balad	4	0	4	0	4	0
HaYamin HeHadash	6	-6	6	-6	7	-7
Zehut	5	-5	5	-5	6	-6
Gesher	0	0	0	0	0	0
Off by # of seats	KnessetJeremy	34	Smith	36	Direct Polls	36
Right-Religious Bloc	66	-1	66	-1	67	-2
Center-Left-Arab Bloc	54	1	54	1	53	2

Party/Pollster	Midgam	Change	Project	Change	Teleseker	Change
Blue & White	30	5	28	7	30	5
Likud	26	9	28	7	31	4
Shas	5	3	5	3	4	4
United Torah Judaism	7	1	6	2	6	2
Hadash-Taal	7	-1	6	0	8	-2
Labor	11	-5	11	-5	8	-2
Yisrael Beitenu	4	1	4	1	0	5
United Right List	5	0	7	-2	6	-1
Meretz	5	-1	5	-1	6	-2
Kulanu	5	-1	4	0	5	-1
Raam-Balad	4	0	4	0	4	0
HaYamin HeHadash	6	-6	6	-6	6	-6
Zehut	5	-5	6	-6	6	-6
Gesher	0	0	0	0	0	0
Off by # of seats	Midgam	38	Project	40	Teleseker	40
Right-Religious Bloc	63	2	66	-1	64	1
Center-Left-Arab Bloc	57	-2	54	1	56	-1

Party/Pollster	Panels	Change	Maagar Mochot	Change	Miskar	Off By
Blue & White	30	5	31	4	28	7
Likud	29	6	28	7	31	4
Shas	5	3	6	2	6	2
United Torah Judaism	6	2	7	1	6	2
Hadash-Taal	8	-2	7	-1	7	-1
Labor	10	-4	9	-3	10	-4
Yisrael Beitenu	4	1	0	5	0	5
United Right List	7	-2	7	-2	8	-3
Meretz	6	-2	7	-3	5	-1
Kulanu	0	4	6	-2	0	4
Raam-Balad	4	0	0	4	4	0
HaYamin HeHadash	6	-6	6	-6	7	-7
Zehut	5	-5	6	-6	8	-8
Gesher	0	0	0	0	0	0
Off by # of seats	Panels	42	Maagar Mochot	46	Miskar	48
Right-Religious Bloc	62	3	66	-1	66	-1
Center-Left-Arab Bloc	58	-3	54	1	54	1

Comment

Yisrael HaYom Poll: Likud 36, Blue & White 34, Yisrael Beitenu 8, 2 tied at 7; Right-Religious Bloc 67

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 4 Comments

June 3, 2019

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 525 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was published on June 3 2019 by Yisrael HaYom.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
34 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
05 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
05 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
04 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
04 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

2% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)

Less than 1%

00 [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

67 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

39% Netanyahu, 27% Gantz, 18% Other answers, 5% Liberman, 3% Bennett, 3% Lapid, 3% Ashkenazi, 2% Gabbai

Who is at fault for the early elections?

41% Liberman, 37% Netanyahu, 13% Don’t know, 9% Haredi parties

Note: 96% of Shas voters, 81% URP voters & 72% of Likud voters blame Liberman. 82% of Labor voters, 70% of Yisrael Beitenu voters & 69% of Blue & White voters blame Netanyahu.

Does the decision to go to an early election change your vote?

51% No, 24% Reaffirms my decision to vote the same, 13% Don’t know, 11% Will vote for a different party, 1% I won’t vote at all

What are the chances you vote again in September?

64% For sure, 18% Most likely, 11% Not likely, 7% Likely

Comment

Maariv Poll: Likud 37, B&W 33, YB 9; Right Bloc 72 / Scenario Poll: Likud+Shaked 41, URP+Bennett 7

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment

May 31, 2019

Panels conducted a poll of 527 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was published on May 31 2019 by Maariv.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
05 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

1.9% [06] Labor (Gabbai)
1.4% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)

Less than 1%

00 [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

72 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
48 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Scenario Poll: Shaked in Likud, Bennett in URL

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

41 [39] Likud (Netanyahu, Shaked & Kahlon)
34 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [05] United Right List (Bennett, Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)

71 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
49 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Additional Questions:

Are you pleased with the early elections?

65% No, 30% Yes, 5% Don’t know

Note: 82% of Likud voters responded no.

Who is responsible for Israel going to early elections?

46% Liberman, 35% Netanyahu, 12% Haredim, 7% Don’t know

Would you like to see Netanyahu re-elected or someone else?

48% Someone else, 40% Netanyahu, 12% Don’t know

Who should lead Blue & White in the next elections?

51% Don’t know, 42% Gantz, 7% Lapid

Blue & White voters: 82% Gantz, 11% Don’t know, 7% Lapid

Comment

Channel 13 Poll: Likud 36, Blue & White 33, Yisrael Beitenu 9, 4 tied at 7; Right-Religious Bloc 66

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 2 Comments

May 30, 2019

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 720 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was conducted on May 30 2019 and broadcast by Channel 13.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
04 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Not polled:

?? [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
?? [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
?? [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

66 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Comment

Channel 11 Poll: Likud 35, Blue & White 34, UTJ 8, Yisrael Beitenu 8, Shas 7; Right-Religious Bloc 66

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 546 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was conducted on May 30 2019 and broadcast by Channel 11.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
34 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
05 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
05 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
04 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

3.1% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
2.2% [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

66 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Additional Questions:

Do you support early elections?

52% Oppose, 28% Support, 20% Don’t know

Who is responsible for early elections?

43% Liberman, 35% Netanyahu, 11% Haredim, 11% Don’t know

Comment

Dahaf Poll: Likud Beitenu 37, Labor 23, YA 15, Shas 13

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 3 Comments

October 31, 2012

Dahaf Poll of 500 people conducted on 28-29 October 2012.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

37 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
23 [08] Labor
15 [–] Yesh Atid
13 [10] Shas
09 [07] Tekum and Jewish Home (7), Hatikva and EYS (2)
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence

65 [65] Right
55 [55] Center-Left

Note: First poll to look at Jewish Home – Tekuma and HaTikva – Erertz Yisrael Shelanu as different parties.

Scenario Poll: Kahalon as Labor #2

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
32 [08] Labor
14 [–] Yesh Atid
13 [10] Shas
09 [07] Tekum and Jewish Home (7), Hatikva and EYS (2)
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence

60 [65] Right
60 [55] Center-Left

Tags: Biberman, Israel Electioms, knesset, Likud Beitenu, Polls

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Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Tag Archive: Israel Electioms

Week 1 (Sep 2019 Elex): Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: Likud 35.4, Blue & White 33.5, Yisrael Beitenu 8; Right-Religious Bloc 67.8

The Pollster Scorecard for the April 2019 Israeli Election

Yisrael HaYom Poll: Likud 36, Blue & White 34, Yisrael Beitenu 8, 2 tied at 7; Right-Religious Bloc 67

Maariv Poll: Likud 37, B&W 33, YB 9; Right Bloc 72 / Scenario Poll: Likud+Shaked 41, URP+Bennett 7

Channel 13 Poll: Likud 36, Blue & White 33, Yisrael Beitenu 9, 4 tied at 7; Right-Religious Bloc 66

Channel 11 Poll: Likud 35, Blue & White 34, UTJ 8, Yisrael Beitenu 8, Shas 7; Right-Religious Bloc 66

Dahaf Poll: Likud Beitenu 37, Labor 23, YA 15, Shas 13

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