Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 720 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was conducted on May 30 2019 and broadcast by Channel 13.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
36 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
04 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
Not polled:
?? [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
?? [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
?? [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)
66 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc
Lieberman has made a potentially disastrous move and a potentially brilliant move.
He holds a lot of cards right now.
without Yisrael Beiteinu, the Likud, UTJ, Shas, and URwP cannot get to 60 seats
So if Lieberman will not recommend Bibi as PM then either:
whoever is Likud leader cannot be PM or Bibi must retire
Bibi has made a lot of enemies both within Likud and outside Likud
There are a LOT of potential scenarios that could occur. A lot depends on what Bennett, Sa’ar, Kahlon, Shaked, and Feiglin decide to do
A list with top 3: Liberman, Bennett, and Feiglin could get a lot of votes. That list with Blue & white & Labor could get really close to 61. Add URwP or Meretz or a breakaway list from Likud and Lieberman could be PM.
Unity on these 2 issues:
1. Draft the Haredim (unlike Bibi)
2. Pro-rule of law and pro-democracy (unlike Bibi)
Then give Labor/Meretz social justice issues in exchange for giving Bennett/Feiglin/Lieberman hawkish foreign policy and settlement growth OR moderate policies on both social justice and foreign policy.
A coalition.
The above probably won’t happen, but something similar, plus or minus a party with different people joining different parties could conceivably happen. The above is just an example of many possible scenarios that could proceed to lead to the next PM not being Bibi.
I assume by “rule of law” do you mean enforcing laws the newspapers agree with (as opposed to laws they do not, or do the police crack down on Dizengoff on Tisha B’av?), and by “Democracy” you mean overriding the elected representatives with unelected judges and the like? I always note that the term Democratia seems to be the opposite of liberal Democracy (rule by elected representatives with protections for minorities – all minorities, not simply based on skin color).