Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Issue Trends

Core takeaways: Netanyahu remains blocked in most polls and Bennett the clear opposition favorite.

While Netanyahu leads all head-to-head matchups, he is within the margin of error against Bennett (40–37), who remains competitive. At the same time, large pools of undecided voters signal continued volatility, particularly voters considering Gadi Eisenkot, whose potential support appears broad but shallow. Bennett is also the clear favorite to lead the non-Netanyahu Bloc, 37% to 28% for Eisenkot in the multi candidate poll and 51%-35% in the head-to-head matchup.

Public opinion remains sharply polarized:
Torch lighting ceremony: ~45% view it as political vs ~31% statesmanlike
Inquiry committee: 60% favor a state commission vs 23% a government-appointed one
Across both issues, there is a clear divide between coalition and opposition voters.

Bloc Trends & Eyes on the Threshold

The dominant structural factor remains the ~6–8% wasted vote from parties below the threshold, enough to materially shift bloc outcomes.

For the Netanyahu bloc: The central vulnerability is Bezalel Smotrich running alone, failing to pass the threshold in most polls outside Filber, Additional risks include potential independent runs by Avi Maoz (Noam) and a new party led by Ofer Winter.
For the Bennett bloc: Vote leakage to Benny Gantz and Yoaz Hendel, both consistently below threshold.
For the Arab bloc: Fragmentation risk if Sami Abu Shehadeh leads Balad in an independent run.

Threshold dynamics alone explain much of the gap between polls, particularly the divergence seen in Filber where Smotrich consistently passes and the others do not.

What to Watch Next

We are roughly six months out from the election, and the system remains structurally locked: Bennett bloc ~60 and the Netanyahu bloc short of 61 in most polls.

Key upcoming trigger point: The Knesset returns from recess on May 11 From there, two scenarios:
Status quo timeline: Knesset session runs through late July → election recess → 27 October election.
Early election scenario: Government falls in May → election window between August 11 – September 1.

Bottom Line: The map has not fundamentally shifted with Netanyahu still blocked and Bennett consolidating the support within his camp.

Poll	Publisher	Pollster	Date	Sample	Margin of Error
1	Maariv	Lazar	April 23, 2026	502	±4.4%
2	Channel 12	Midgam	April 23, 2026	502	±4.4%
3	Channel 14	Filber	April 23, 2026	958	N/A

Party	Maariv/Lazar	Channel 12/Midgam	Channel 14/Filber
Likud (Netanyahu)	24	25	35
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)	24	21	10
Yashar (Eisenkot)	12	14	12
Democrats (Golan)	9	10	8
Yisrael Beteinu (Lieberman)	9	8	9
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	7	7	4
Shas (Deri)	9	9	11
UTJ	7	7	8
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	9	9	8
Religious Zionist Party (Smotrich)	2.8%	2.7%	4
Joint List (Arab Bloc)	—	—	11
Hadash-Ta’al (Arab Bloc)	5	5	—
Ra’an (Arab Bloc)	5	5	—
Balad (Arab Bloc)	1.4%	0.4%	—
Reservists (Hendel)	2%	1.3%	—
Blue & White (Gantz)	1.7%	0.8%	1.2%

Bloc	Maariv/Lazar	Channel 12/Midgam	Channel 14/Filber
Netanyahu Bloc	49	50	66
Bennett Bloc	61	60	43
Arab Bloc	10	10	11

Additional Polls: All polls from Midgam unless specifically written

Matchup	Netanyahu	Opponent	Don’t Know
vs Bennett	40%	37%	23%
vs Eisenkot	40%	35%	25%
vs Lapid	44%	24%	32%
vs Lieberman	42%	19%	39%

Candidate to Lead the Non-Netanyahu Bloc	%
Bennett	37%
Eisenkot	29%
Lapid	12%
Lieberman	8%
Golan	6%
Don’t Know	8%

Bennett vs Eisenkot (Among Bloc Voters)	%
Bennett	51%
Eisenkot	35%
Don’t Know	14%

Commission of Inquiry Preference	General Public	Coalition Voters	Opposition Voters
State Commission (appointed by Supreme Court President)	60%	22%	89%
Government Commission (appointed by Netanyahu)	23%	54%	5%
Don’t Know	17%	25%	6%

Group	Political	Statesmanlike	Don’t Know
Maariv Poll (General Public)	44%	32%	24%
Midgam (General Public)	45%	31%	24%
Coalition Voters	11%	59%	30%
Opposition Voters	71%	14%	15%

Framing:

While I typically focus on polling, this post examines current market-implied probabilities on Polymarket. For context, Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where participants trade on real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting collective expectations.

Analysis:

Netanyahu has not crossed 50% since March 16. For an incumbent, remaining below that threshold ahead of any head-to-head consolidation is a notable constraint.

Momentum in the challenger field is shifting. Just two days ago, Bennett stood at 27% and Eisenkot at 18.9%; Bennett has since climbed to 32%, while Eisenkot has declined to 16.9%. The net effect is a clearer consolidation of second place.

Gideon Sa’ar, now aligned with Likud, has edged into fourth place at 2%. This is less a surge than a reflection of the broader field fading. Lapid has not exceeded 5% since December 9; Gantz has never reached 5%; and Lieberman has never crossed 4%.

Notably, Yair Golan sits in 11th place, behind senior ministers Yariv Levin, Israel Katz, and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Why it matters:

Prediction markets aim to aggregate dispersed information into a single price signal. In volatile political environments, especially in the Middle East, this can offer a real-time, probabilistic read that complements, and sometimes challenges, traditional polling and media narratives.

Polymarket Question: “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?”

Current odds:

Benjamin Netanyahu — 42%
Naftali Bennett — 32%
Gadi Eisenkot — 16.9%
Gideon Sa’ar — 2%
Yair Lapid — 2%
Avigdor Lieberman — 2%
Benny Gantz — 1%
Yariv Levin — 1%
Israel Katz — 1%
Itamar Ben-Gvir — 1%
Yair Golan — 1%
Yossi Cohen — 1%
Ayelet Shaked — <1%
Amir Ohana — <1%
Moshe Feiglin — <1%
Yoaz Hendel — <1%
Nir Barkat — <1%

Market Mechanics:
Open date: November 14, 2025 (7:21 PM ET)
Scheduled election: October 27, 2026
Resolution: The market resolves to the individual officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister following the election.
Early election clause: If elections are called early, resolution follows the next sworn-in Prime Minister after that vote.
Requirement: Formal swearing-in is necessary for resolution.
Caretaker PMs: Do not count.
Deadline: If no PM is sworn in by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “Other.”
Sources: Official Government of Israel information, supplemented by consensus credible reporting if needed.