Tag Archive: Polls


Below is a summary of each poll/prediction that was released before the polling blackout from April 6-April 9 2019. For the third consecutive election cycle the KnessetJeremy model was more accurate than any of the final polls that were released to the public.

Party/PollsterActual ResultsKnessetJeremySmithDirect PollsMidgam 
Blue & White3529292930 
Likud3530273126 
Shas85665 
United Torah Judaism86777 
Hadash-Taal67777 
Labor699711 
Yisrael Beitenu54444 
United Right List56665 
Meretz45565 
Kulanu44505 
Raam-Balad44444 
HaYamin HeHadash06676 
Zehut05565 
Gesher00000 
PlaceActual Results1st2nd3rd4th 
Right-Religious Bloc6566666763 
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5554545357 
       
Party/PollsterActual ResultsProjectTelesekerPanelsMaagar MochotMiskar
Blue & White352830303128
Likud352831292831
Shas854566
United Torah Judaism866676
Hadash-Taal668877
Labor611810910
Yisrael Beitenu540400
United Right List576778
Meretz456675
Kulanu445060
Raam-Balad444404
HaYamin HeHadash066667
Zehut066568
Gesher000000
PlaceActual Results5th6th7th8th9th
Right-Religious Bloc656664626666
Center-Left-Arab Bloc555456585454
       
Party/PollsterKnessetJeremyChangeSmithChangeDirect PollsChange
Blue & White296296296
Likud305278314
Shas536262
United Torah Judaism627171
Hadash-Taal7-17-17-1
Labor9-39-37-1
Yisrael Beitenu414141
United Right List6-16-16-1
Meretz5-15-16-2
Kulanu405-104
Raam-Balad404040
HaYamin HeHadash6-66-67-7
Zehut5-55-56-6
Gesher000000
Off by # of seatsKnessetJeremy34Smith36Direct Polls36
Right-Religious Bloc66-166-167-2
Center-Left-Arab Bloc541541532
       
Party/PollsterMidgamChangeProjectChangeTelesekerChange
Blue & White305287305
Likud269287314
Shas535344
United Torah Judaism716262
Hadash-Taal7-1608-2
Labor11-511-58-2
Yisrael Beitenu414105
United Right List507-26-1
Meretz5-15-16-2
Kulanu5-1405-1
Raam-Balad404040
HaYamin HeHadash6-66-66-6
Zehut5-56-66-6
Gesher000000
Off by # of seatsMidgam38Project40Teleseker40
Right-Religious Bloc63266-1641
Center-Left-Arab Bloc57-254156-1
       
Party/PollsterPanelsChangeMaagar MochotChangeMiskarOff By
Blue & White305314287
Likud296287314
Shas536262
United Torah Judaism627162
Hadash-Taal8-27-17-1
Labor10-49-310-4
Yisrael Beitenu410505
United Right List7-27-28-3
Meretz6-27-35-1
Kulanu046-204
Raam-Balad400440
HaYamin HeHadash6-66-67-7
Zehut5-56-68-8
Gesher000000
Off by # of seatsPanels42Maagar Mochot46Miskar48
Right-Religious Bloc62366-166-1
Center-Left-Arab Bloc58-3541541

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 525 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was published on June 3 2019 by Yisrael HaYom.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
34 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
05 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
05 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
04 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
04 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

2% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)

Less than 1%

00 [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

67 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

39% Netanyahu, 27% Gantz, 18% Other answers, 5% Liberman, 3% Bennett, 3% Lapid, 3% Ashkenazi, 2% Gabbai

Who is at fault for the early elections?

41% Liberman, 37% Netanyahu, 13% Don’t know, 9% Haredi parties

Note: 96% of Shas voters, 81% URP voters & 72% of Likud voters blame Liberman. 82% of Labor voters, 70% of Yisrael Beitenu voters & 69% of Blue & White voters blame Netanyahu.

Does the decision to go to an early election change your vote?

51% No, 24% Reaffirms my decision to vote the same, 13% Don’t know, 11% Will vote for a different party, 1% I won’t vote at all

What are the chances you vote again in September?

64% For sure, 18% Most likely, 11% Not likely, 7% Likely

Panels conducted a poll of 527 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was published on May 31 2019 by Maariv.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
05 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

1.9% [06] Labor (Gabbai)
1.4% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)

Less than 1%

00 [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

72 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
48 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Scenario Poll: Shaked in Likud, Bennett in URL

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

41 [39] Likud (Netanyahu, Shaked & Kahlon)
34 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [05] United Right List (Bennett, Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)

71 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
49 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Additional Questions:

Are you pleased with the early elections?

65% No, 30% Yes, 5% Don’t know

Note: 82% of Likud voters responded no.

Who is responsible for Israel going to early elections?

46% Liberman, 35% Netanyahu, 12% Haredim, 7% Don’t know

Would you like to see Netanyahu re-elected or someone else?

48% Someone else, 40% Netanyahu, 12% Don’t know

Who should lead Blue & White in the next elections?

51% Don’t know, 42% Gantz, 7% Lapid

Blue & White voters: 82% Gantz, 11% Don’t know, 7% Lapid

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 720 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was conducted on May 30 2019 and broadcast by Channel 13.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
04 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Not polled:

?? [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
?? [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
?? [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

66 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 546 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was conducted on May 30 2019 and broadcast by Channel 11.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [39] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
34 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
05 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
05 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
04 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold

3.1% [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
2.2% [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

66 [65] Right-Religious Bloc
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc

Additional Questions:

Do you support early elections?

52% Oppose, 28% Support, 20% Don’t know

Who is responsible for early elections?

43% Liberman, 35% Netanyahu, 11% Haredim, 11% Don’t know