Tag Archive: Poll of Polls


KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 9 Comments
September 13, 2019

Friday: Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.

Channel 12 (Midgam/Gava) & Channel 13 (Panel Project HaMidgam/Fuchs) will both release their last polls later tonight. 4 pollsters have already released their last polls: 103 FM/Maariv (Smith), Knesset Channel (Panels/Lazar), Yisrael Hayom (Maagar Mochot/Katz) & Channel 11/Kan (Kantar/Teleseker).

Saturday Night: Tomorrow night I will post the final Knesset Jeremy’s Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls. Additionally, I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis.

Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.

Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.

Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).

Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.

September-October-November: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government.

Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com

Update: Additional polls by Maariv & Ynet have been added. My final prediction has been postponed to Sunday and will appear with the Phase 1 Analysis piece.

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Knesset Jeremy’s Polling Average (14 Days Away): Likud 31, Blue & White 30, Joint List 10.8, Yamina 10.6, Yisrael Beitenu 9.9

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 3 Comments
September 3, 2019

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls (Updated September 3rd)

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsAVGApril ResultsDifference
1stLikudNetanyahu313139-8
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz303035-5
3rdThe Joint ListOdeh1110.8100.8
4thYaminaShaked1110.655.6
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman109.954.9
6thDemocratic UnionHorwitz77.343.3
7thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman77.38-0.7
8thShasDeri77.28-0.8
9thLaborPeretz65.96-0.1
10thOtherBen Gvir/Etc.0000
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM5656.160-3.9
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM545455-1
Pushing Unity Government109.954.9

Note #1: This average is based on the last 24 polls that were conducted from July 30th until September 3 (last month): 8 Midgam, 5 Smith, 3 Maagar Mochot, 3 Teleseker, 3 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls & 0 Panels.

Note #2: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election. The Zehut list has agreed to resign but has yet to do so officially.

Note #3: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Democratic Union, B) Blue and White & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & Yamina. Shas & UTJ are expected to sign before the deadline on September 6th. The Joint List announced they will not sign with any other list.

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Knesset Jeremy’s Polling Average (22 Days Away): Likud 30.7, Blue & White 29.6, Yamina 10.9, Joint List 10.9, Yisrael Beitenu 10

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 2 Comments
August 26, 2019

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: (Updated August 26th)

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsAVGApril ResultsDifference
1stLikudNetanyahu3130.739-8.3
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz3029.635-5.4
3rdYaminaShaked1110.955.9
4thThe Joint ListOdeh1110.9100.9
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman101055
6thDemocratic UnionHorwitz77.543.5
7thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman77.48-0.6
8thShasDeri77.28-0.8
9thLaborPeretz65.86-0.2
10thOtherFeiglin/Ben Gvir/Etc0000
Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM5656.260-3.8
Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM5453.855-1.2
Pushing Unity Government101055

Note #1: This average is based on the last 17 polls that were conducted from July 30th until August 23rd (last four weeks). (6 Midgam, 4 Smith, 2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls, 1 Teleseker & 0 Panels).

Note #2: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election.

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22nd Knesset Elections: Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls (Aug 4 2019 Update)

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 1 Comment
August 4, 2019

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

PlacePartyLeaderAVGApril ResultsDifference
1stLikudNetanyahu30.239-8.8
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz2935-6
3rdUnited RightShaked11.456.4
4thThe Joint ListOdeh11.2101.2
5thYisrael BeitenuLiberman10.255.2
6thDemocratic UnionHorwitz844
7thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman7.48-0.6
8thShasDeri78-1
9thLaborPeretz5.66-0.4
10thOther23 Others000
xHave ruled out nominating Gantz for PMx5660-4
xHave ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PMx53.855-1.2
xPushing Unity Governmentx10.255.2

Note #1: This average is based on the last 5 polls that were conducted after all of the joint tickets were publicized. (2 Midgam, 1 Maagar Mochot, 1 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 1 Smith, 0 Teleseker, Direct Polls, Panels, Kantar).

Note #2: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election.

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Week 1 (Sep 2019 Elex): Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: Likud 35.4, Blue & White 33.5, Yisrael Beitenu 8; Right-Religious Bloc 67.8

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment
June 6, 2019
PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremyAvearge6-Poll-AVGApril Results
1stLikud+KulanuNetanyahu3635.439
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz3433.535
3rdYisrael BeitenuLiberman885
4thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman87.58
5thShasDeri778
6thHadash-TaalOdeh76.36
7thUnited Right ListPeretz55.25
8thMeretzZandberg55.24
9thHaYamin HeHadashBennett54.70
10thLaborGabbai54.36
11thRaam-BaladAbbas02.94
12thZehutFeiglin000
13thGesherLevy000
Right-Religious Bloc6967.865
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5152.255

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 6 polls that were released from May 27 to June 3 (2 Panels, 2 Direct Polls, 1 Maagar Mochot, 1 Panel Project HaMidgam, 0 Smith, 0 Teleseker & 0 Midgam).

Note #3: The right-religious bloc is polling at a high of 72 and a low of 66. The center-left-Arab bloc is polling at a high of 54 and a low of 48.

Note #4: Kulanu has merged into the Likud. Labor did not pass in one poll poll. HaYamin HeHadash, Zehut & Gesher were not polled in one of the polls.

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