Issue Trends

Several indicators this week are worth treating as directional rather than just another data point.

The Qatar-ties question is widening the credibility gap. In the Channel 12 poll, 56% say they do not believe Netanyahu when he claims he knew nothing about ties between people in his office and Qatar. Only 30% believe him, while 14% don’t know. This is a clear majority finding, suggesting the story is landing less as partisan noise and more as a question of trust and competence.

The war “win” question remains net-negative. In the same poll, 54% say Israel has not defeated Hamas, compared to 29% who believe it has, and 17% who are unsure. Taken together, the picture is one of low trust and low victory clarity, a combination that tends to sustain political volatility rather than resolve it.

The Joint Arab List is being polled as though unity were already settled, even though it isn’t. Poll 3B shows a unified Joint List at 16 seats, while Poll 3A, the split scenario, totals only 11 across the Arab parties. That five-seat swing is substantial, and it is being tested despite the absence of any agreement on leadership or seat allocation among the four factions.

Bloc Trends

The Netanyahu Bloc leads only in the Channel 14 (Filber) poll. Across all other surveys, the Bennett Bloc holds the advantage. Notably, a unified Arab list compresses the overall map, reducing seat totals for both major blocs by consolidating representation.

Eyes on the Threshold

Gantz and Hendel fail to cross the threshold in every poll this week. Smotrich manages to clear it in only one.

What to Expect Next

Election timing preferences remain divided. In the Maariv poll, 49% prefer elections on schedule (end of October 2026), while 39% want elections as early as possible (May–June).

Calendar mechanics matter as we enter February. The current scheduled election date is 27 October 2026, now less than nine months away. However, if the government fails to pass the 2025 budget by March 31, 2026, the Knesset will automatically dissolve, pushing elections into 30 June 2026, roughly four months early. May is the fastest imaginable scenario but remains highly unlikely.

Poll #Broadcaster/PublisherPollsterFieldwork DateSample SizeMargin of Error
1MaarivLazar / PanelsJan 28–29, 2026503±4.4%
2Channel 12 Midgam Jan 29, 2026501±4.4%
3AZman Yisrael (No Joint List)TatikaJan 28–29, 2026500±4.4%
3BZman Yisrael (Joint List scenario)TatikaJan 28–29, 2026500±4.4%
4Channel 14FilberJan 29, 2026952N/A
PartyMaarivChannel 12Zman Yisrael AZman Yisrael BChannel 14
Likud (Netanyahu)2727282734
Bennett 20262221191912
Joint List1312—1613
Democrats (Golan)9111099
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)9810109
Shas (Deri)8910910
Yashar (Eisenkot)109877
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)88777
United Torah Judaism77889
Yesh Atid (Lapid)78986
Ra’am (Abbas)——6——
Hadash-Ta’al——5——
Balad——0——
Blue & White (Gantz)2.7%1.8%003%
Miluimnikim (Hendel)1.8%1.0%00—
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)1.8%2.9%004
Bennett Bloc5757565343
Netanyahu Bloc5051535164
Arab Bloc1312111613
PollQuestionResults
MaarivWhen should Knesset elections be held?On time (end of Oct 2026): 49% | As early as possible (May–Jun): 39% | Don’t know: 12%
Channel 12PM suitability: Netanyahu vs Bennett 2026Netanyahu: 42% | Bennett 2026: 33% | Don’t Know/Other: 25%
Channel 12PM suitability: Netanyahu vs LapidNetanyahu: 44% | Don’t Know/Other: 32% | Lapid: 24%
Channel 12PM suitability: Netanyahu vs EisenkotNetanyahu: 43% | Don’t Know/Other: 29% | Eisenkot: 28%
Channel 12Did Netanyahu know about the ties between people in his office and Qatar?Do not believe him: 56% | Believe him: 30% | Don’t know: 14%
Channel 12Has Israel defeated Hamas?No: 54% | Yes: 29% | Don’t know: 17%
Channel 14PM suitability (multi-candidate)Netanyahu: 52% | Bennett 2026: 23% | Eisenkot: 12% | Lapid: 5% | Liberman: 5% | Gantz: 3%