Tag Archive: Poll of Polls


23rd Knesset Results vs Exit Polls & 22nd Knesset Results

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — Leave a comment
March 5, 2020

Unofficial 23rd Knesset Results (official results will be released on Monday):

Party22nd KnessetChange23rd Knesset  
Likud 32436  
Blue & White33033  
Joint List 13215  
Shas909  
Labor-Gesher-Meretz11-47  
UTJ707  
Yisrael Beitenu8-17  
Yamina7-16  
      
Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 255358  
Nominated Gantz in Phase 257 (54)-255  
Last time did not nominate8 (11)-17  
      
PartyKnesset Jeremy AVGChannel 11 Exit PollChannel 12 Exit PollChannel 13 Exit PollResults
Likud 3436373736
Blue & White3333333233
Joint List 1415141415
Shas99999
Labor-Gesher-Meretz96767
UTJ88787
Yisrael Beitenu66687
Yamina77766
      
Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 25860606058
Nominated Gantz in Phase 25654545255
Last time did not nominate66687

Notes: Turnout 71.46%. Disqualified votes 25,053. Threshold 149,004 votes. Seat Measurement 37,897 votes.

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Final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average (2020 Elections): Likud 34.3, Blue & White 33.4, Joint List 13.9, Labor-Gesher-Meretz 8.7, Shas 8.4, UTJ 7.5, Yamina 7.4, Yisrael Beitenu 6.4

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 7 Comments
March 1, 2020

Final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average:

PartyAVGSeats
Likud 34.334
Blue & White33.433
Joint List 13.914
Labor-Gesher-Meretz8.79
Shas 8.49
UTJ7.58
Yamina7.47
Yisrael Beitenu6.46
Phase 2 Nominations from 2nd Electionn/an/a
Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 257.658
Nominated Gantz in Phase 25656
Last time did not nominate6.46

Note #1: The KnessetJeremy Average is based on the last 7 polls that were released by Midgam (1), Smith (1), Maagar Mochot (1), Kantar (1), Panels (1), Project HaMidgam (1) & Direct Polls (1).

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Knesset Jeremy Polling Average (Jan 12 2020): Blue & White 36, Likud 33, Joint List 14; Blocs tied at 56 ( DU & URL under threshold)

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 4 Comments
January 12, 2020

Knesset Jeremy Polling Average. State of the race updated on Jan 12th 2020. (Final party lists to be submitted by Jan 15 at 10 PM Israeli Time)

PartyLeaderPredicted Seats3rd Election (15 Polls)Between 2nd & 3rd Election (20 Polls)Current Seats
Blue & WhiteGantz3635.234.533
Likud Netanyahu333232.832
Joint List Odeh1413.212.813
Shas Deri97.97.959
Yisrael BeitenuLieberman87.488
UTJLitzman87.37.37
HaYamin HeHadashBennett65.95.953
LaborA. Peretz65.24.956
Democratic UnionHorowitz03.54.555
United Right ListR. Peretz02.41.24
BlocPredicted Seats3rd Election (15 Polls)Between 2nd & 3rd Election (20 Polls)Current Seats
Center-Left-Arab5657.157.157
Right-Religious5655.554.955
Lieberman87.488

Note #1: The current KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 15 polls that were released by Midgam (4), Panels (3), Smith (2), Maagar Mochot (2), Kantar (2), Project (1) & Miskar (1). The first poll was broadcast on December 12th 2019 and the last poll was published on January 10 2019.

Note #2: The previous KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 20 polls that were released between the second and third elections. The polls were conducted by Midgam (6), Maagar Mochot (6), Panel Project HaMdigam (4), Kantar (2), Smith (1), & Panels (1). The first poll was Oct 7 and the last poll was Dec 10. 3 polls were conducted in October, 12 polls were conducted in November & 5 polls were conducted in December.

Note #3: Results are calculated to allow me to maintain an 120-seat framework for the blocs. The Democratic Union did not pass the threshold in 3 of the 15 polls. The United Right List did not pass the threshold in 7 of the 15 polls. All of the other parties passed the threshold in each of the polls.

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Knesset Jeremy Polling Average (Jan 1 2020): Blue & White 35.6, Likud 32.1, Joint List 13.1

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January 1, 2020

Knesset Jeremy Polling Average. State of the race updated on Jan 1st 2020.

PlacePartyLeader2019 – 3rd Election (7 Polls)Between 2nd & 3rd Election (20 Polls)Current Seats
1stBlue & WhiteGantz35.634.533
2ndLikud Netanyahu32.132.832
3rdJoint List Odeh13.112.813
4thShas Deri8.17.959
5thYisrael BeitenuLieberman7.688
6thUTJLitzman7.17.37
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett5.65.953
8thLaborA. Peretz5.34.956
9thDemocratic UnionHorowitz3.74.555
10thUnited Right ListR. Peretz1.81.24
Bloc2019 – 3rd Election (7 Polls)Between 2nd & 3rd Election (20 Polls)Current Seats
Center-Left-Arab57.757.157
Right-Religious54.754.955
Lieberman7.688

Note #1: The current KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 7 polls that were released by Midgam (2), Smith (2), Maagar Mochot (1), Kantar (1) & Panels (1). The first poll was broadcast on December 12th 2019 and the last poll was broadcast on December 29 2019.

Note #2: The previous KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 20 polls that were released by Midgam (6), Maagar Mochot (6), Panel Project HaMdigam (4), Kantar (2), Smith (1), & Panels (1). The first poll was Oct 7 and the last poll was Dec 10. 3 polls were conducted in October, 12 polls were conducted in November & 5 polls were conducted in December.

Note #3: Results are calculated to allow me to maintain an 120-seat framework for the blocs.

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20-Poll Average (Between 2nd & 3rd Elections): Blue & White 34.5, Likud 32.8; Blocs 57.1 – 54.9 – 8

Filed under: Knesset, Polls, Weekly Poll Avg — 2 Comments
December 12, 2019
PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremy Average (20 Polls)Current Seats
1stBlue & WhiteGantz34.533
2ndLikud Netanyahu32.832
3rdJoint List Odeh12.813
4thYisrael BeitenuLieberman88
5thShas Deri7.959
6thUTJLitzman7.37
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett5.953
8thLaborA. Peretz4.956
9thDemocratic UnionHorowitz4.555
10thUnited Right ListR. Peretz1.24
11thOtzmaBen Gvir00
xBloc KnessetJeremy Average (20 Polls) Current Seats x
xCenter-Left-Arab57.157
xRight-Religious54.955
xLieberman88

Note #1: The KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 20 polls that were released by Midgam (6), Maagar Mochot (6), Panel Project HaMdigam (4), Kantar (2), Smith (1), & Panels (1). The first poll was Oct 7 and the last poll was Dec 10. 3 polls were conducted in October, 12 polls were conducted in November & 5 polls were conducted in December.

Note #2: Otzma did not pass the electoral threshold in any of the polls. United Right List (Bayit Yehudi+Tekuma/National Union) did not pass the electoral threshold in nine polls and their results were calculated as zero seats to allow me to maintain an 120-seat framework for the blocs. In five polls that polled the Yamina alliance together. That means the party-by-party results are different than the bloc results as a result.

Note #3: The first poll conducted after the election was triggered is not included in the above average but can be found at this link: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/12/12/1st-poll-of-2020-election-blue-white-35-likud-32-joint-list-13-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8-shas-8-hayamin-hehadash-6/

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