Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #5 (week of Dec 28-Jan 3 2014) of 8 polls from 6 polling companies (2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Teleseker, 1 Midgam, 1 Maagar Mochot, 0 Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 23.6 (23.2) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 23.2 (22.6) [18] Likud

3rd 16.0 (15.7) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 09.1 (09.5) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 09.0 (08.8) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.5 (06.8) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

7th 06.7 (08.0) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

8th 06.5 (06.5) [06] Meretz

9th 05.8 (05.3) [10] Shas

10th 3.3 (03.6) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.0 (10.7) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.1 (00.0) [02] Kadima

69.6 (70.0) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50.3 (50.0) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Changes from week 4 to week 5:

UTJ moves up to 6th, Yisrael Beitenu drops to 7th.

Largest Gains: UTJ gained .7, Likud gained .6 and Shas gained .5.

Biggest Losses: Yisrael Beitenu dropped 1.3 seats, Yesh Atid lost 0.4, Ha’am Itanu dropped 0.3.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 5:

1 – Labor-Livni 23.6, Likud 23.2, Bayit Yehudi 16.

The three largest parties went up again this week, at the expense of the center. Prime Minister Netanyahu is encouraged by increasing poll numbers, however the average of the parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition bloc is now under 70 (69.6) for the first time. Bayit Yehudi remains the only other party in double digits.

2 – Likud Primary Results.

The Likud moved to the center in the 2015 primaries. Former Kadima MK Avi Dichter bumps right-wing MKs Moshe Feiglin & Tzipi Hotoveli off the list and MKs Danny Danon & Yariv Levin have been bumped down the list. The Likud’s Top 20 will only have 2 female candidates and no one under the age of 40. Likud lost members over the last two years and turnout was lower this time as well. The only candidates in realistic spots who improved in terms of actual votes were Speaker Edelstein, and female MKs Regev and Gamliel.

The winner of the primary is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is very happy with the results. The new Electoral Reform Bill will go into effect and limit the next government to 18 ministers and 4 deputy ministers.  Just like last time, expect Netanyahu to ignore the actual order of the list and to appoint whoever he wants for Likud’s top positions in the next government. This time there will be less to go around.

3 – Yisrael Beitenu dropped 1.3 seats this week, lost 4.3 seats over last four weeks.

The corruption scandal is still in the headlines and Foreign Minister Liberman is still pivoting towards the center. Yisrael Beitenu has 13 seats in the current Knesset and is now averaging less than UTJ in the polls. Last week Yisrael Beitenu averaged 8 seats, 8 seats was their high this week. Momentum is not on their side.

4 – Shas goes up following Deri’s resignation

Aryeh Deri resigned from Shas and Shas gained as a result, at the expense of Eli Yishai. Initially Deri was not expected to return to Shas for another 3 weeks or so. Internal polls reveal Shas under former #3 Ariel Attias would score no differently than Shas under Deri. Expect Deri to return to Shas this week.

5 – Week 6 Preview

Expect Labor & Likud to keep gaining ground at the expense of Yisrael Beitenu. Expect scenario polling on who Netanyahu should use his reserved spots for. Expect increased focus on Labor & Bayit Yehudi primaries. Polling the United Arab List should get easier soon. Hadash’s Central Committee approved (under their own conditions) a joint United Arab List with Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad. Expect more drama in Yisrael Beitenu and Shas.