Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls
Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #5 (week of Dec 28-Jan 3 2014) of 8 polls from 6 polling companies (2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Teleseker, 1 Midgam, 1 Maagar Mochot, 0 Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)
(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]
1st 23.6 (23.2) [21] Labor+Livni
2nd 23.2 (22.6) [18] Likud
3rd 16.0 (15.7) [11] Bayit Yehudi
4th 09.1 (09.5) [19] Yesh Atid
5th 09.0 (08.8) [–] Koolanu
6th 07.5 (06.8) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
7th 06.7 (08.0) [13] Yisrael Beitenu
8th 06.5 (06.5) [06] Meretz
9th 05.8 (05.3) [10] Shas
10th 3.3 (03.6) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)
11th 11.0 (10.7) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)
12th 00.1 (00.0) [02] Kadima
69.6 (70.0) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
50.3 (50.0) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
Changes from week 4 to week 5:
UTJ moves up to 6th, Yisrael Beitenu drops to 7th.
Largest Gains: UTJ gained .7, Likud gained .6 and Shas gained .5.
Biggest Losses: Yisrael Beitenu dropped 1.3 seats, Yesh Atid lost 0.4, Ha’am Itanu dropped 0.3.
Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 5:
1 – Labor-Livni 23.6, Likud 23.2, Bayit Yehudi 16.
The three largest parties went up again this week, at the expense of the center. Prime Minister Netanyahu is encouraged by increasing poll numbers, however the average of the parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition bloc is now under 70 (69.6) for the first time. Bayit Yehudi remains the only other party in double digits.
2 – Likud Primary Results.
The Likud moved to the center in the 2015 primaries. Former Kadima MK Avi Dichter bumps right-wing MKs Moshe Feiglin & Tzipi Hotoveli off the list and MKs Danny Danon & Yariv Levin have been bumped down the list. The Likud’s Top 20 will only have 2 female candidates and no one under the age of 40. Likud lost members over the last two years and turnout was lower this time as well. The only candidates in realistic spots who improved in terms of actual votes were Speaker Edelstein, and female MKs Regev and Gamliel.
The winner of the primary is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is very happy with the results. The new Electoral Reform Bill will go into effect and limit the next government to 18 ministers and 4 deputy ministers. Just like last time, expect Netanyahu to ignore the actual order of the list and to appoint whoever he wants for Likud’s top positions in the next government. This time there will be less to go around.
3 – Yisrael Beitenu dropped 1.3 seats this week, lost 4.3 seats over last four weeks.
The corruption scandal is still in the headlines and Foreign Minister Liberman is still pivoting towards the center. Yisrael Beitenu has 13 seats in the current Knesset and is now averaging less than UTJ in the polls. Last week Yisrael Beitenu averaged 8 seats, 8 seats was their high this week. Momentum is not on their side.
4 – Shas goes up following Deri’s resignation
Aryeh Deri resigned from Shas and Shas gained as a result, at the expense of Eli Yishai. Initially Deri was not expected to return to Shas for another 3 weeks or so. Internal polls reveal Shas under former #3 Ariel Attias would score no differently than Shas under Deri. Expect Deri to return to Shas this week.
5 – Week 6 Preview
Expect Labor & Likud to keep gaining ground at the expense of Yisrael Beitenu. Expect scenario polling on who Netanyahu should use his reserved spots for. Expect increased focus on Labor & Bayit Yehudi primaries. Polling the United Arab List should get easier soon. Hadash’s Central Committee approved (under their own conditions) a joint United Arab List with Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad. Expect more drama in Yisrael Beitenu and Shas.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Hi!
Pls chek your numbers:
Right coalition, as I can count:
23.2+16+9+7.5+ 6.7+5.8 +3.3 = 71.5
previous week:
22.6+15.7+8.8+6.8+ 8.0+5.3+3.6 = 70.8
Left coalition numbers also should be changed correspondingly.
So this is first week when Right coalition grows.
The poll average of right vs left based on individual numbers of right vs left in each poll.
That means that I do not take into account Ha’am Itanu on the right or Kadima on the left when they do not pass the threshold.
When I poll individual parties I take into account their numbers, even if they are polling under the threshold.
That is why adding up averages of individual parties will not match the bloc polling numbers.
OK, there is a problem with averaging Ishay, but still – it’s first time when right grow, important sign.
2. Yariv Levin wasn’t bumped down, actually he took the same place as in 2013 (11), but because of sheriun he is 1 place down.
He was bumped down from 11th to 12th. It is a drop even if it is true that he is in 12th because of the reserved spot. Levin received 22,497 votes, compared to 29,381 votes two-years ago, that is a significant drop in support. In a very tight race, Levin was about 1,400 votes away from dropping to 17th on the list.
Well, he is also less than 1100 votes from N9, it was a close fight there in the middle.
About previous voting – then there were less voters, you should normilize the numbers.
With recount it has all changed
Can you still claim Labor will not enter a coalition with BB? http://www.debka.com/article/24323/
Salom Jeremy, first of all thanks for your effort about sharing your analysis with us; i like polls, politics and even Israel where i will come soon.
A couple of quick questions for you:
from 0 to 100 how many chances to Kahlon entering coalition with Labor + Livni? taking Kahlon and Meretz is the only way they have to obtain more seats than Bibi’s coalition, right?
Last thing: on the right side will be likely a coalition formed by Likud + Bennet + Lieberman? Yesh Atid will be out of the game?
Thanks again,
Emanuele
Italy
Your welcome 🙂
For a long time, Kahlon probably was 50-50 on going with BB or Herzog.
Supposedly he is angry at Herzog for already giving away Finance Minister to someone else.
Polls (public and private) consistently show that a majority of Kahlon voters prefer BB.
Herzog has a difficult time putting together a coalition because Arab parties don’t want to sit with him and Haredim don’t want to sit with Lapid.
All coalition formulas are possible, it a question of which are more likely.
Sorry shalom*