Likud 2015 List:
Number-Name (previous ranking in 2013 &2009)
1 – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (#1 in 2013 & 2009)
2 – Minister Gilad Erdan (#3 in 2013 & 2009)
3 – Speaker Yuli Edelstein (#12 in 2013 & 2009)
4 – Minister Yisrael Katz (#5 in 2013, #11 in 2009)
5 – MK Miri Regev (#14 in 2013, #27 in 2009)
6 – Minister Silvan Shalom (#4 in 2013, #7 in 2009)
7 – Minister Moshe Yaalon (#8 in 2013 & 2009)
8 – Former Deputy Minister Zeev Elkin (#9 in 2013, #20 in 2009)
9 – Former Deputy Minister Danny Danon (#6 in 2013, #24 in 2009)
10 – MK Yariv Levin (#11 in 2013, #21 in 2009)
11 – Netanyahu Reserved Spot
12 – Deputy Minister Tzachi Hanegbi (#17 in 2013, Kadima MK in 2009)
13 – Minister Yuval Steinitz (#16 in 2013, #9 in 2009)
14 – Former Deputy Minister Gila Gamliel (#20 in 2013, #19 in 2009)
15 – Deputy Minister Ofir Akunis (#19 in 2013, #26 in 2009)
16 – New District Position
17 – MK Haim Katz (#13 in 2013, #14 in 2009)
18 – New District Position
19 – New District Position
20 – Former Minister Avi Dichter (#59 in 2013, Kadima MK in 2009)
Other notables
24 – Former Deputy Minister Ayoub Kara (#39 in 2013, #23 in 2009) – Spot reserved for non-Jew.
26 – Deputy Minister Tzipi Hotovely (#10 in 2013, #18 in 2009)
36 – MK Moshe Feiglin (#15 in 2013, #36 in 2009)
37 – Former Deputy Minister Michael Ratzon (sat out 2013, #37 in 2009)
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Voting
Name – 2014 Votes (2012 votes)
Erdan – 38,517 (44,875)
Edelstein – 35,893 (29,138)
Y Katz – 35,510 (41,662)
Regev – 33,385 (27,999)
Shalom – 29,808 (41,957)
Ya’alon – 27,973 (34,458)
Elkin – 25,879 (31,060)
Danon – 24,797 (36,881)
Levin – 24,258 (29,381)
Hanegbi – 24,146 (23,561)
Steinitz – 23,525 (26,109)
Gamliel –23,093 (21,843)
Akunis – 22,856 (22,898)
C Katz – 22,575 (29,035)
Dichter – 20,892 (21,455)
Hotovely – 20,837 (28,133)
Feiglin – 14,581 (26,472)
Kara – 13,963 (12,858)
Ratzon – 10,731
Note: 38 candidates ran for Likud ‘national list’. I am only providing results for the top 19 candidates.
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Analysis
The Likud moved to the center in the 2015 primaries. Former Kadima MK Avi Dichter bumps right-wing MKs Moshe Feiglin & Tzipi Hotoveli off the list and MKs Danny Danon was bumped down the list. The Likud’s Top 20 will only have 2 female candidates and no one under the age of 40. Likud lost members over the last two years and turnout was lower this time as well. The only candidates in realistic spots who improved in terms of actual votes were Speaker Edelstein, MK Hanegbi and female MKs Regev and Gamliel.
The winner of the primary is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is very happy with the results. The new Electoral Reform Bill will go into effect and limit the next government to 18 ministers and 4 deputy ministers. Just like last time, expect Netanyahu to ignore the actual order of the list and to appoint whoever he wants for Likud’s top positions in the next government. This time there will be less to go around.
* Updated to reflect changes in voting after recount of Jan 4 2015.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
14 – MK Yariv Levin – mistake, he is 12
Feiglin is on 32 place
Of course it is sad that Danon fell down the list (likely by not much) and that Tzipi Hotovely and Moshe Feiglin fell to “unrealistic” spots (although Hotovely’s place in the 26th spot could still become realistic). BUT on the other hand one could imagine that this combined with the (unfortunate) fact that Hanegbi maid it into a good spot (9th is kind of good) and that Dichter (the leftist) earned the 20th (“realistic”) spot, could lead to Likud getting votes worth several seats (from Kulanu). Also Edelstein in third place can, combined with the corruption scandal give Likud a couple of more seats from Yisrael Beiteinu. This will in turn lead to more pushed-down-the-list nationalists enter the Knesset (great thing!!!)
About Bayit Yehudi: with big-name nationalists in Likud pushud down the list and BY presenting a great list (for example with Dani Dayan, Ronsky etc. in realistic spots) , the party will be able to attract many vote equalling several seats from Likud.
Thus this Likud list will lead to a stronger Likud and more importantly a stronger BY.
The question is, will that lead to a stronger Right? Arguably, Bayit Yehudi’s strong showing in the last election forced Netanyahu to form a less right-wing government than he should have been able to (thanks to Bennett’s “both or none” alliance with Lapid).
his “both or none” requirement was because otherwise he was find himself out of government, so it could be even more center/left
Jeremy,
would it be possible to find/get a list of Bayit Yehudi primary candidates in English? As a pro-israeli right-wing person (not-hebrew-speaking) I have tried to search for lists (also searched for the Likud primary), but I have not found any lists. Also the list would be good if it contained some basic info about the candidates (such as: Dani Dayan – Yesha council “foreign envoy”).
Hope this could be arranged.
Another question: why are there no primary polls made/released in Israel (compared to the US where there are already polls for the 2016 presidential primaries)?
There is no list of Bayit Yehudi primary candidates yet because the deadline for submitting candidacy is later this week. I will publish a list later this week when it becomes available.
There are many primary polls that are conducted privately, but the press chooses not to take out polls for primaries.
Thanks!
Ithink it strange that the mefia is not publishing the polls – they would certainly be interesting (like they are in the US already right now). Especially interesting would polls regarding the BY primary be, with so many new and interesting (sometimes big-name) candidates.
In 2012 there were about 70000 voters and now 53000 (I didn’t find exact numbers), so I normalized 2012 results to current:
Name – 2014 Votes (2012 votes / 2012 normalized)
Erdan – 36,287 (44,875 / 33,977)
Edelstein – 33,900 (29,138 / 22,062)
Y Katz – 33,259 (41,662 / 31,544)
Regev – 31,090 (27,999 / 21,199)
Shalom – 28,106 (41,957 / 31,767)
Ya’alon – 27,096 (34,458 / 26,090)
Elkin – 24,274 (31,060 / 23,517)
Hanegbi – 23,538 (23,561 / 17,839)
Danon – 22,994 (36,881 / 27,924)
Levin – 22,497 (29,381 / 22,246)
Steinitz – 22,481 (26,109 / 19,768)
Gamliel –22,381 (21,843 / 16,538)
Akunis – 21,914 (22,898 / 17,337)
C Katz – 21,074 (29,035 / 21,984)
Dichter – 20,085 (21,455 / 16,245)
Hotovely – 19,331 (28,133 / 21,301)
Feiglin – 13,224 (26,472 / 20,043)
Kara – 13,115 (12,858 / 9,735)
* There is one more difference not taken into account – in 2012 were 12 names in list against 11 now.