Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #6 (week of Jan 4-Jan 10 2015) of 6 polls from 4 polling companies (2 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 1 Smith, 1 Dialog, 0 Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.0 (23.2) [18] Likud

2nd 23.6 (23.6) [21] Labor+Livni

3rd 15.3 (16.0) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 10.3 (09.1) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 08.6 (09.0) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.5 (07.5) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

7th 06.6 (06.7) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

8th 06.1 (06.5) [06] Meretz

9th 06.0 (05.8) [10] Shas

10th 03.1 (03.3) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.0 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.0 (00.1) [02] Kadima

68.8 (69.6) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

51.1 (50.3) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Changes from week 5 to week 6:             

Likud replaces Labor-Livni as the largest party.

Largest Gains: Yesh Atid gained 1.2 seats, Likud gained .8 and Shas gained .2.

Biggest Losses: Bayit Yehudi dropped 0.7, Koolanu lost 0.4, Meretz dropped 0.4.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 6:

1 – The post-primary bump: Likud 24.0 and Labor-Livni 23.6.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud regained their #1 position thanks to a post-primary surge. The Likud primary produced more or less the same list, noting the exception of former Kadima MK Dichter replacing hardliner MK Feiglin in the top 26 spots reserved on the national list. Likud without Feiglin, who resigned from the party, is enjoying a bump. Deputy Minister Tzipi Hotovelly who placed #26 is now within the margin of error of returning as an MK.

The combined Labor-Livni list has stood its ground in the polls. Herzog is hoping for a Labor post-primary bump this week, but that will most likely be dependent on what list Labor voters choose. Livni has less than three weeks to decide on her party’s reserved slots and is expected to take into account the result of the Labor primary. Livni is happy that her former #2 Amram Mitzna labeling her as a dictator did not harm the joint list in the polls.

2 – Double Digits: Bayit Yehudi 15.3 and Yesh Atid 10.3

For the last two weeks Bayit Yehudi was the only other party in double digits, but that changes this week after Yesh Atid gained 1.2 seats. Although Yair Lapid will be the first to promote his sudden surge, things must be put into perspective. Yesh Atid, the largest party in the current Knesset with 19 seats, would lose about half its strength. Bayit Yehudi would net a gain of three-seats.

3 – Going Down: Koolanu 8.6, Yisrael Beitenu 6.6 and Meretz 6.1

What do these three parties have in common? They all lost strength this week – again. Moshe Kahlon’s Koolanu list seems to drop every time he announces another figure. Perhaps Kahlon should consider cloning himself or getting a better internal pollster. Yisrael Beitenu’s corruption scandal is still in the headlines and Homeland Security Minister Aharonovich is the latest Yisrael Beitenu Minister to announce he will not run for re-election. Zahava Gal-On, who ran unopposed, was re-appointed as Meretz leader. Meretz seems to be more focused on its internal central committee election for its Knesset slate than in the general election campaign.

4 – Haredim: UTJ 7.5, Shas 6.0, Ha’am Itanu 3.1

In most polls UTJ is at 7-8 seats and it will likely be the case until Election Day. Aryeh Deri is back and Shas continues its slow climb up.  Yishai failed to pass the threshold in 5 of the 6 polls taken this week.

5 – Blocs: 68.8 vs 51.1

The combined Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Koolanu-Yisrael Beitenu-UTJ-Shas bloc has gradually dropped over the last 6 weeks. Yishai not passing the threshold in most polls lowers the combined totals of Netanyahu’s potential partners.

6 – Week 7 Preview

Bayit Yehudi and Labor will be focused on their primaries. Kahlon will reveal more candidates. Additional Yisrael Beitenu MKs will most likely retire. Expect more drama in Shas now that Deri is back. We should grow closer to a United Arab List which means we should expect a few nasty headlines. Netanyahu will consider more names for his two reserved slots by leaking them to the public. Kadima’s Shaul Mofaz should surface after the Labor primary to ask Herzog for Defense Minister again in return for his 2-seats of campaign funding.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #4 (week of Dec 21-Dec 27 2014) of 8 polls from 7 polling companies (2 Panels, 1 Smith, 1 Geocartography, 1 Dialog, 1 Teleseker,  1 Sarid, 1 TRI, 0 Midgam, Maagar Mochot, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 23.2 (22.1) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 22.6 (22.0) [18] Likud

3rd 15.7 (15.4) [11] Bayit Yehudi* (includes poll of 13 w/o Tekuma)

4th 09.5 (09.2) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 08.8 (10.1) [–] Koolanu

6th 08.0 (08.8) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

7th 06.8 (07.2) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 06.5 (06.7) [06] Meretz

9th 05.3 (05.5) [10] Shas

10th 03.6 (03.8) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)* (polled over threshold in 5 of 8 polls this week,  very close in other 3)

11th 10.7 (10.1) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

70.0 (71.7) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50.0 (48.2) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Changes from week 3 to week 4:

Yesh Atid moves up to 4th, Koolanu drops to 5th.

Largest Gains: Labor-Livni gained 1.1, Likud gained .6 and the future United Arab List gained .6 as well.

Biggest Losses: Koolanu dropped 1.3 seats, Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.8, UTJ dropped 0.4.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 4:

1 – Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition Bloc: Week 1-76.4, Week 2-73.5, Week 3-71.7, Week 4-70.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s future coalition possibilities are becoming more limited as the campaign goes on. In the first three weeks there was not a single poll that had his potential partners falling under 70 seats and now his current high-low is 72-67. Shas, Yisrael Beitenu & now Koolanu are bleeding votes and Yishai might not pass the threshold. Likud still has the best shot at forming the next government, but that could change as time goes on.

2 – Labor-Livni, Likud grow, at expense of Center.

Labor & Likud gained this week at the expense of the center parties. This is supposed to be the time period that Likud & Labor, who are both deeply involved in their primary elections, are temporarily overtaken by the momentum of center parties. The center parties usually take advantage of this period to get a head start on their general campaign and instead chose to involve themselves prematurely with “kingmaker scenarios” which has proven unpopular by the public. If you lead a center party, 80 days before an election is not the right time to leak to the press possible coalition blackmail conspiracies.

3 – Yisrael Beitenu has now lost 3 seats in last three weeks.

The corruption scandal this week will probably not help Yisrael Beitenu. Previous corruption scandals have helped Liberman in the past, but his party is in a tailspin and is losing support on a weekly basis. Before the scandal broke, Foreign Minister Liberman decided it was time to move to the center, and his close associates leaked his planned shakeup. The entire right-wing flank including his #2 Minister Shamir, #3 Minister Landau and loyalist MK Rotem – out. Former Labor MKs such as Landver and Litinsky are safe, with an eye at grabbing Livni Party refugee MK Stern. Today Yisrael Beitenu has 13 seats in the current Knesset, in week 4 they are averaging 8 seats, and their current high-low is 10-5.

4 –Koolanu

The biggest loser of the week was Koolanu. They dropped 1.4 seats, fell out of 4^th place, and this is in the week where they finally announced their #2 – Michael Oren. Maybe Kahlon should stick to domestic issues, his strong point, which all polls show are the main focus of Israelis in this election.

5 – Deri & BB? Yishai is with BB.

In a scenario poll (not averaged in here) Shas fell under the threshold in a poll for the first time since the 1980s. In 6 of the 8 polls this week Shas fell under their weekly average of 5.3 seats. Many Shas MKs are waiting to see where they are placed on the list and some of them have made it clear they will jump ship to Yishai’s party if they are not happy with their spot. That is 10 Shas MKs fighting over 4-6 realistic spots. Yishai clearly says in every interview that he will support Netanyahu, because every poll indicates Shas voters prefer Netanyahu over Herzog. Deri refuses to commit himself to Netanyahu, and now finds himself within the threshold’s margin of error.

6 – Week 5 Preview

This week’s Likud primary will be covered heavily by the press and might involve some interesting scenario polling. Expect more scenario polling of the United Arab List until they formally sign an agreement. We will get better numbers from Yisrael Beitenu as more details of the latest corruption probe come to light. It will be interesting to see how Koolanu does as Kahlon releases more names on his Knesset list.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #3 (week of Dec 14-Dec 20 2014) of 7 polls from 4 polling companies (3 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Geocartography, 1 Dialog, 0 Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Teleseker, New Wave, Sarid):

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 22.1 (22.2) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 22.0 (21.2) [18] Likud

3rd 15.4 (15.7) [11] Bayit Yehudi* (includes poll of 13 w/o Tekuma)

4th 10.1 (10.2) [–] Koolanu

5th 09.2 (09.0) [19] Yesh Atid

6th 08.8 (09.5) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

7th 07.2 (08.2) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 06.7 (05.8) [06] Meretz

9th 05.5 (07.7) [10] Shas

10th 3.8 [02] Maran (Yishai+Chetboun)* (polled in 5 of 7 polls this week, including 2 & 3 seat showings)

11th 10.1 (10.0) [11] Hadash (5), Ra’am-Ta’al (5.1) & Balad (0.0)

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

71.7 (73.5) [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48.2 (46.5) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition Labor-Livni-Yesh Atid-Meretz-Arabs)

Changes from week 2 to week 3:

Yesh Atid moves up to 5^th, Yisrael Beitenu falls for the 2^nd straight week, now in 6^th place.

Meretz moves up to 8th place.

Shas falls to 9th place, Yishai appears in 10^th in first week of official polling.

Largest Gains: Yishai joins with 3.8 seats, Meretz gained .9 and Likud gained .8

Biggest Losses: Shas dropped 2.2 seats, UTJ lost 1 seat, Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.7 (after losing 1.5 seats week before).

Party Breakdown (last week in brackets)

1st: Labor-Livni: High – 23 (24), Low – 21 (18)

2nd: Likud: High – 23 (25), Low – 21 (20)

3rd: Bayit Yehudi: High – 16 (18), Low – 13 w/o Ariel (11)

4th: Koolanu: High – 12 (13), Low – 9 (9)

5th: Yesh Atid: High – 11 (10), Low- 8 (8)

6th: Yisrael Beitenu: High – 10 (11), Low – 8 (8)

7th: UTJ: High – 8 (11), Low – 7 (7)

8th: Meretz: High – 7 (6), Low – 6 (5)

9th: Shas: High – 8 (10), Low – 4 (6)

Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition): High – 73 (78), Low – 70 (71)

Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition): High – 50 (49), Low – 47 (42)

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 3:

1 – Right-Religious Bloc: Week 1-76.4, Week 2-73.5, Week 3-71.7.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s future coalition partners have been gradually dropping. This potential bloc has never dropped under 70 in any poll since early elections were called. The bloc’s high this week was 73 and the average is now 71.7.

2 – Labor-Livni 22.1, Likud 22.0.

The “Livni Momentum” is over. In most polls Labor-Livni is deadlocked with Likud. Both parties have a high of 23 and a low of 21. Take the margin of error into account and you are really looking at a tie ball game.

3 – Deri 5.5, Yishai 3.8.

The long awaited Shas split finally happened. Yishai did not exit with MKs Zeev, Margi & Michaeli as expected. Instead Yishai has partnered with Bayit Yehudi refugee Yoni Chetboun and waiting for his old friend Uri Ariel to change his mind. However, the real story is that Shas without Yishai dropped 2.2 seats in a week.

4 – Yisrael Beitenu has lost 2.2 seats in last two weeks.

This is the headline that everyone has ignored. Yisrael Beitenu dropped from 4^th place to 5^th place last week and dropped from 5^th place to 6^th place this week. It is possible that the mainstream will notice before they drop under UTJ?

5 –Shaul Mofaz – Defense Minister (really)

Why are we still polling Kadima? Why hasn’t Mofaz merged with Labor yet? After all, Herzog already reserved for him a spot on the next list. Well, he is demanding the Defense portfolio from Herzog, along with a 2^nd reserved spot. I guess Ronit Tirosh probably regrets turning down that 2^nd Knesset spot earlier this week. Why on earth would Mofaz think he could turn 2-seats into a Defense portfolio? Well, what else do you expect when you are negotiating with the guy who offered Livni who wasn’t passing the threshold a rotation for Prime Minister?

6 – Week 4

Indeed as I predicted last week, Week 3 was the polling week of MK Eli Yishai. A Lapid-Kahlon joint ticket was the scenario polling favorite of the week. Of course there is little reason for Kahlon to join Lapid. I expect the next scenario polls will look at Lapid-Liberman. Other week 4 scenario polls could look at possible additions to the Kulanu list.