Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #3 (week of Dec 14-Dec 20 2014) of 7 polls from 4 polling companies (3 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Geocartography, 1 Dialog, 0 Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Teleseker, New Wave, Sarid):

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 22.1 (22.2) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 22.0 (21.2) [18] Likud

3rd 15.4 (15.7) [11] Bayit Yehudi* (includes poll of 13 w/o Tekuma)

4th 10.1 (10.2) [–] Koolanu

5th 09.2 (09.0) [19] Yesh Atid

6th 08.8 (09.5) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

7th 07.2 (08.2) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 06.7 (05.8) [06] Meretz

9th 05.5 (07.7) [10] Shas

10th 3.8 [02] Maran (Yishai+Chetboun)* (polled in 5 of 7 polls this week, including 2 & 3 seat showings)

11th 10.1 (10.0) [11] Hadash (5), Ra’am-Ta’al (5.1) & Balad (0.0)

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

 

71.7 (73.5) [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48.2 (46.5) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition Labor-Livni-Yesh Atid-Meretz-Arabs)

Changes from week 2 to week 3:

Yesh Atid moves up to 5th, Yisrael Beitenu falls for the 2nd straight week, now in 6th place.

Meretz moves up to 8th place.

Shas falls to 9th place, Yishai appears in 10th in first week of official polling.

Largest Gains: Yishai joins with 3.8 seats, Meretz gained .9 and Likud gained .8

Biggest Losses: Shas dropped 2.2 seats, UTJ lost 1 seat, Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.7 (after losing 1.5 seats week before).

 

Party Breakdown (last week in brackets)

1st: Labor-Livni: High – 23 (24), Low – 21 (18)

2nd: Likud: High – 23 (25), Low – 21 (20)

3rd: Bayit Yehudi: High – 16 (18), Low – 13 w/o Ariel (11)

4th: Koolanu: High – 12 (13), Low – 9 (9)

5th: Yesh Atid: High – 11 (10), Low- 8 (8)

6th: Yisrael Beitenu: High – 10 (11), Low – 8 (8)

7th: UTJ: High – 8 (11), Low – 7 (7)

8th: Meretz: High – 7 (6), Low – 6 (5)

9th: Shas: High – 8 (10), Low – 4 (6)

Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition): High – 73 (78), Low – 70 (71)

Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition): High – 50 (49), Low – 47 (42)

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 3:

1 – Right-Religious Bloc: Week 1-76.4, Week 2-73.5, Week 3-71.7.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s future coalition partners have been gradually dropping. This potential bloc has never dropped under 70 in any poll since early elections were called. The bloc’s high this week was 73 and the average is now 71.7.

2 – Labor-Livni 22.1, Likud 22.0.

The “Livni Momentum” is over. In most polls Labor-Livni is deadlocked with Likud. Both parties have a high of 23 and a low of 21. Take the margin of error into account and you are really looking at a tie ball game.

3 – Deri 5.5, Yishai 3.8.

The long awaited Shas split finally happened. Yishai did not exit with MKs Zeev, Margi & Michaeli as expected. Instead Yishai has partnered with Bayit Yehudi refugee Yoni Chetboun and waiting for his old friend Uri Ariel to change his mind. However, the real story is that Shas without Yishai dropped 2.2 seats in a week.

4 – Yisrael Beitenu has lost 2.2 seats in last two weeks.

This is the headline that everyone has ignored. Yisrael Beitenu dropped from 4th place to 5th place last week and dropped from 5th place to 6th place this week. It is possible that the mainstream will notice before they drop under UTJ?

5 –Shaul Mofaz – Defense Minister (really)

Why are we still polling Kadima? Why hasn’t Mofaz merged with Labor yet? After all, Herzog already reserved for him a spot on the next list. Well, he is demanding the Defense portfolio from Herzog, along with a 2nd reserved spot. I guess Ronit Tirosh probably regrets turning down that 2nd Knesset spot earlier this week. Why on earth would Mofaz think he could turn 2-seats into a Defense portfolio? Well, what else do you expect when you are negotiating with the guy who offered Livni who wasn’t passing the threshold a rotation for Prime Minister?

6 – Week 4

Indeed as I predicted last week, Week 3 was the polling week of MK Eli Yishai. A Lapid-Kahlon joint ticket was the scenario polling favorite of the week. Of course there is little reason for Kahlon to join Lapid. I expect the next scenario polls will look at Lapid-Liberman. Other week 4 scenario polls could look at possible additions to the Kulanu list.

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