Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #3 (week of Dec 14-Dec 20 2014) of 7 polls from 4 polling companies (3 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Geocartography, 1 Dialog, 0 Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Teleseker, New Wave, Sarid):

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 22.1 (22.2) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 22.0 (21.2) [18] Likud

3rd 15.4 (15.7) [11] Bayit Yehudi* (includes poll of 13 w/o Tekuma)

4th 10.1 (10.2) [–] Koolanu

5th 09.2 (09.0) [19] Yesh Atid

6th 08.8 (09.5) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

7th 07.2 (08.2) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 06.7 (05.8) [06] Meretz

9th 05.5 (07.7) [10] Shas

10th 3.8 [02] Maran (Yishai+Chetboun)* (polled in 5 of 7 polls this week, including 2 & 3 seat showings)

11th 10.1 (10.0) [11] Hadash (5), Ra’am-Ta’al (5.1) & Balad (0.0)

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

71.7 (73.5) [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48.2 (46.5) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition Labor-Livni-Yesh Atid-Meretz-Arabs)

Changes from week 2 to week 3:

Yesh Atid moves up to 5^th, Yisrael Beitenu falls for the 2^nd straight week, now in 6^th place.

Meretz moves up to 8th place.

Shas falls to 9th place, Yishai appears in 10^th in first week of official polling.

Largest Gains: Yishai joins with 3.8 seats, Meretz gained .9 and Likud gained .8

Biggest Losses: Shas dropped 2.2 seats, UTJ lost 1 seat, Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.7 (after losing 1.5 seats week before).

Party Breakdown (last week in brackets)

1st: Labor-Livni: High – 23 (24), Low – 21 (18)

2nd: Likud: High – 23 (25), Low – 21 (20)

3rd: Bayit Yehudi: High – 16 (18), Low – 13 w/o Ariel (11)

4th: Koolanu: High – 12 (13), Low – 9 (9)

5th: Yesh Atid: High – 11 (10), Low- 8 (8)

6th: Yisrael Beitenu: High – 10 (11), Low – 8 (8)

7th: UTJ: High – 8 (11), Low – 7 (7)

8th: Meretz: High – 7 (6), Low – 6 (5)

9th: Shas: High – 8 (10), Low – 4 (6)

Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition): High – 73 (78), Low – 70 (71)

Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition): High – 50 (49), Low – 47 (42)

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 3:

1 – Right-Religious Bloc: Week 1-76.4, Week 2-73.5, Week 3-71.7.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s future coalition partners have been gradually dropping. This potential bloc has never dropped under 70 in any poll since early elections were called. The bloc’s high this week was 73 and the average is now 71.7.

2 – Labor-Livni 22.1, Likud 22.0.

The “Livni Momentum” is over. In most polls Labor-Livni is deadlocked with Likud. Both parties have a high of 23 and a low of 21. Take the margin of error into account and you are really looking at a tie ball game.

3 – Deri 5.5, Yishai 3.8.

The long awaited Shas split finally happened. Yishai did not exit with MKs Zeev, Margi & Michaeli as expected. Instead Yishai has partnered with Bayit Yehudi refugee Yoni Chetboun and waiting for his old friend Uri Ariel to change his mind. However, the real story is that Shas without Yishai dropped 2.2 seats in a week.

4 – Yisrael Beitenu has lost 2.2 seats in last two weeks.

This is the headline that everyone has ignored. Yisrael Beitenu dropped from 4^th place to 5^th place last week and dropped from 5^th place to 6^th place this week. It is possible that the mainstream will notice before they drop under UTJ?

5 –Shaul Mofaz – Defense Minister (really)

Why are we still polling Kadima? Why hasn’t Mofaz merged with Labor yet? After all, Herzog already reserved for him a spot on the next list. Well, he is demanding the Defense portfolio from Herzog, along with a 2^nd reserved spot. I guess Ronit Tirosh probably regrets turning down that 2^nd Knesset spot earlier this week. Why on earth would Mofaz think he could turn 2-seats into a Defense portfolio? Well, what else do you expect when you are negotiating with the guy who offered Livni who wasn’t passing the threshold a rotation for Prime Minister?

6 – Week 4

Indeed as I predicted last week, Week 3 was the polling week of MK Eli Yishai. A Lapid-Kahlon joint ticket was the scenario polling favorite of the week. Of course there is little reason for Kahlon to join Lapid. I expect the next scenario polls will look at Lapid-Liberman. Other week 4 scenario polls could look at possible additions to the Kulanu list.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #2 (week of Dec 7-Dec 13 2014) of 7 polls from 4 polling companies (3 Panels, 1 Geocartography, 1 Dialog, 1 Smith, 1 Midgam, 0 for Maagar Mochot, Teleseker, New Wave, Sarid):

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1^st 22.2 (16.8) [21] Labor+LIvni

2^nd 21.2 (23.6) [18] Likud

3^rd 15.7 (16.6) [12] Bayit Yehudi

4^th 10.2 (09.9) [–] Kulanu

5^th 09.5 (11.0) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

6^th 09.0 (09.8) [19] Yesh Atid

7^th 08.2 (07.8) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8^th 07.7 (07.6) [11] Shas

9^th 05.8 (06.8) [06] Meretz

10^th 10.0 (10.1) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad *

11^th 00.0 (.01) [02] Kadima

73.5 (76.4) [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

46.5 (43.6) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition Zionist Camp-Yesh Atid-Meretz-Arabs)

* I am averaging Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together because 3 of the polls decided to poll them together, even though they haven’t agreed yet on their joint list.

Changes from week 1 to week 2:

Labor (w/addition of Livni) jumps to 1^st place, as Likud drops to 2^nd place & Bayit Yehudi to 3^rd.

Kulanu moves up to 4^th place and Yisrael Beitenu falls to 5^th place.

Largest Gains: Labor-Livni gained 5.4 seats, UTJ gained .4 and Kulanu gained .3

Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 2.4 seats, Yisrael Beitenu lost 1.5 seats, Meretz lost 1 seat.

Party Breakdown (last week in brackets)

1^st: Labor-Livni: High – 24 (17), Low – 18 (12)

2^nd: Likud: High – 25 (30), Low – 20 (21)

3^rd: Bayit Yehudi: High – 18 (18), Low – 11 (15)

4^th: Kachlon: High – 13 (13), Low – 9 (5)

5^th: Yisrael Beitenu: High – 11 (14), Low – 8 (9)

6^th: Yesh Atid: High – 10 (11), Low- 8 (7)

7^th: UTJ: High – 11 (8), Low – 7 (7)

8^th: Shas: High – 10 (9), Low – 6 (6)

9^th: Meretz: High – 6 (8), Low – 5 (5)

Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition): High – 78 (84), Low – 71 (70)

Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition): High – 49 (50), Low – 42 (36)

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 2:

1 – Labor-Livni joint ticket provides Anti-BB coalition with momentum. Overall the Center-Left bloc gained 2.9 seats, however a considerable amount of Labor’s increase of 5.4 seats comes at the expense of the other members of the bloc (Meretz, Yesh Atid & Arabs).

2 – This was not a good polling week for Prime Minister Netanyahu, however there is a silver lining. Despite the initial polling success of the Labor-Livni ticket, BB’s possible coalition partners remain with a solid 73.5 seats, compared to the 61 they share today.

3 – Kachlon’s new party has a name – Kulanu. The list and platform are still not clear, but Kulanu is now in double digits and averages as the 4^th largest party.

4 – Polling before the 47-days to election mark is usually influenced by scenario polls, rumors and possible splits and/or alliances. Week 1 was polling under the shadow of the probable Labor-Livni alliance. Week 2 was polling under the shadow of the probable split in Shas along with various rumors regarding a possible split in Bayit Yehudi. Week 3 will probably be polling under the shadow of MK Eli Yishai’s political options, Shaul Mofaz’s political future and possible additions to the Kulanu list.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #1 (week of Nov 30-Dec 6 2014) of 12 polls from 9 polling companies (3 Maagar Mochot, 2 Dialog, 1 Panels, 1 Smith, 1 Midgam, 1 Teleseker, 1 New Wave, 1 Geocartography, 1 Sarid):

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1^st 23.6 [18] Likud

2^nd 16.6 [12] Bayit Yehudi

3^rd 13.4 [15] Labor

4^th 11.0 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

5^th 09.9 [–] New Kachlon Party

6^th 09.8 [19] Yesh Atid

7^th 07.8 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8^th 07.6 [11] Shas

9^th 06.8 [06] Meretz

10^th 3.4 [06] Movement

11^th ?.? [04] Hadash

12^th ?.? [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

13^th ?.? [03] Balad

14^th .01 [02] Kadima

76.4 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

43.6 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Party Breakdown

1^st: Likud: High – 30 (Dec 3 Geocarteography), Low – 21 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot)
2^nd: Bayit Yehudi: High – 18 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot), Low – 15 (Dec 5 Maagar Mochot)
3^rd: Labor: High – 17 (Dec 3 Sarid), Low – 12 (3 different polls)
4^th: Yisrael Beitenu: High – 14 (Dec 3 Geocarteography), Low – 9 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot)
5^th: Kachlon: High – 13 (Dec 5 New Wave), Low – 5 (Dec 3 Sarid)
6^th: Yesh Atid: High – 11 (5 polls), Low-  7 (Dec 3 Geocarteography)
7^th: UTJ: High – 8 (9 polls), Low – 7 (3 polls)
8^th: Shas: High – 9 (3 polls), Low – 6 (Nov 30 Dialog)
9^th: Meretz: High – 8 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot), Low – 5 (Dec 3 Teleseker)

Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition): High – 84 (Dec 3 Geocarteography), Low – 70 (Dec 3 Sarid)
Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition): High – 50 (Dec 3 Sarid), Low – 36 (Dec 3 Geocarteography)