Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #2 (week of Dec 7-Dec 13 2014) of 7 polls from 4 polling companies (3 Panels, 1 Geocartography, 1 Dialog, 1 Smith, 1 Midgam, 0 for Maagar Mochot, Teleseker, New Wave, Sarid):

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 22.2 (16.8) [21] Labor+LIvni

2nd 21.2 (23.6) [18] Likud

3rd 15.7 (16.6) [12] Bayit Yehudi

4th 10.2 (09.9) [–] Kulanu

5th 09.5 (11.0) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

6th 09.0 (09.8) [19] Yesh Atid

7th 08.2 (07.8) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 07.7 (07.6) [11] Shas

9th 05.8 (06.8) [06] Meretz

10th 10.0 (10.1) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad *

11th 00.0 (.01) [02] Kadima

 

73.5 (76.4) [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

46.5 (43.6) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition Zionist Camp-Yesh Atid-Meretz-Arabs)

* I am averaging Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together because 3 of the polls decided to poll them together, even though they haven’t agreed yet on their joint list.

Changes from week 1 to week 2:

Labor (w/addition of Livni) jumps to 1st place, as Likud drops to 2nd place & Bayit Yehudi to 3rd.

Kulanu moves up to 4th place and Yisrael Beitenu falls to 5th place.

Largest Gains: Labor-Livni gained 5.4 seats, UTJ gained .4 and Kulanu gained .3

Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 2.4 seats, Yisrael Beitenu lost 1.5 seats, Meretz lost 1 seat.

 

Party Breakdown (last week in brackets)

1st: Labor-Livni: High – 24 (17), Low – 18 (12)

2nd: Likud: High – 25 (30), Low – 20 (21)

3rd: Bayit Yehudi: High – 18 (18), Low – 11 (15)

4th: Kachlon: High – 13 (13), Low – 9 (5)

5th: Yisrael Beitenu: High – 11 (14), Low – 8 (9)

6th: Yesh Atid: High – 10 (11), Low- 8 (7)

7th: UTJ: High – 11 (8), Low – 7 (7)

8th: Shas: High – 10 (9), Low – 6 (6)

9th: Meretz: High – 6 (8), Low – 5 (5)

Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition): High – 78 (84), Low – 71 (70)

Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition): High – 49 (50), Low – 42 (36)

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 2:

1 – Labor-Livni joint ticket provides Anti-BB coalition with momentum. Overall the Center-Left bloc gained 2.9 seats, however a considerable amount of Labor’s increase of 5.4 seats comes at the expense of the other members of the bloc (Meretz, Yesh Atid & Arabs).

2 – This was not a good polling week for Prime Minister Netanyahu, however there is a silver lining. Despite the initial polling success of the Labor-Livni ticket, BB’s possible coalition partners remain with a solid 73.5 seats, compared to the 61 they share today.

3 – Kachlon’s new party has a name – Kulanu. The list and platform are still not clear, but Kulanu is now in double digits and averages as the 4th largest party.

4 – Polling before the 47-days to election mark is usually influenced by scenario polls, rumors and possible splits and/or alliances. Week 1 was polling under the shadow of the probable Labor-Livni alliance. Week 2 was polling under the shadow of the probable split in Shas along with various rumors regarding a possible split in Bayit Yehudi. Week 3 will probably be polling under the shadow of MK Eli Yishai’s political options, Shaul Mofaz’s political future and possible additions to the Kulanu list.

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