Tag Archive: Knesset polls


Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 517 people with a 4.3% margin of error for 103 FM radio that was broadcast on Feb 8 2019. The poll was conducted on Feb 7 2019.

In a post-Netanyahu world who should lead the Likud?

31% Don’t know, 25% Edelstein, 20% Saar, 16% Y. Katz, 4% Erdan, 4% Regev

Among Likud voters: 30% Saar, 21% Y. Katz, 20% Don’t know, 19% Edelstein, 5% Erdan, 5% Regev

Note: The seat results are identical to the seat distribution Maagar Mochot produced for Yisrael HaYom on the same day. I have updated that poll to reflect the numbers without the parties that didn’t cross the threshold.
https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/02/09/yisrael-hayom-poll-likud-29-israel-resilience-17-yesh-atid-11-joint-list-9-utj-7/

Midgam conducted a poll with a 4.4% margin of error for the Labor Party that was leaked on Feb 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
19 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

1.1% [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
1.0% [06] Livni Party
Under 1% [–] Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Otzma (Ben Ari), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Panel HaMidgam Project conducted a poll of 601 people with a 3.7% margin of error for Channel 13 that was broadcast on Feb 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
21 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under electoral threshold:

2.2% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.8% [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
1.2% [06] Livni Party
under 1% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari), Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Scenario Poll: Labor + Meretz

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
21 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
14 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
10 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 18% Dpm’t know

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday February 9th 2018.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 6 AVGCurrent
1stLikudNetanyahu313113030
2ndIsrael ResilienceGantz2221.3-0.521.80
3rdYesh AtidLapid1110.90.710.211
4thHaYamin HeHadashBennett87.20.273
5thJoint ListOdeh76.60.46.212
6thUTJLitzman76.506.56
7thTaalTibi65.6-0.66.21
8thLaborGabbai65.5-1.36.818
9thShasDeri54.90.44.57
10thMeretzZandberg54.804.85
11thKulanuKahlon44.1-0.44.510
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman44-0.54.55
13thBayit YehudiPeretz43.7-0.345
14thGesherLevy02-131
15thOtherOthers01.71.700
16thLivniLivni00.20.206
Right-Religious6362.91.96166
Center-Left-Arab5757.1-1.95954

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on ten polls that were conducted from Feb 1-9 (2 Panels, 2 Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls, 2 Maagar Mochot, 1 Midgam and 1 Smith polls).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: The official candidate lists will be submitted on Feb 20-21 2019.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)

Miskar conducted a poll that was published by Srugim on Feb 9 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
20 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
04 [12] The Joint (Arab) List

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
00 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
00 [07] Shas (Deri)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
00 [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–-] Green Leaf
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) & others

49 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
38 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
33 [–] seats are thrown away

Scenario Poll: Bayit Yehudi + Tekuma + Otzma + Yachad

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
24 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
13 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich) + Otzma + Yachad
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
00 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
00 [07] Shas (Deri)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–-] Green Leaf
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) & others

53 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
43 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
24 [–] seats are thrown away

Note: I will not include this poll in my average