Miskar conducted a poll that was published by Srugim on Feb 9 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
20 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
04 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
00 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
00 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
00 [07] Shas (Deri)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
00 [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–-] Green Leaf
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) & others
49 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
38 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
33 [–] seats are thrown away
Scenario Poll: Bayit Yehudi + Tekuma + Otzma + Yachad
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
24 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
13 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich) + Otzma + Yachad
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
00 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
00 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
00 [07] Shas (Deri)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–-] Green Leaf
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) & others
53 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
43 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
24 [–] seats are thrown away
Note: I will not include this poll in my average
I am no polling expert. However it is clear that this poll is totally rubbish and shows the pollsters lack of breadth or reality. The arab lists receiving 9/10 the Charedim 5/6 and Labour/ Meretz 0 is just laughable. What a joke. I hope you had enough sense not to use these statistics in working out your averages.
Seats aren’t “thrown away”. They’d be roughly distributed among the parties above the threshold…
It’s impossible to know just from this info how exactly, but say, if 33 seats are “thrown away”, you could just multiply all other seats by 120/(120-33) which is approximately 1.4.
Still, it’s unlikely this many parties would be below the threshold, there should be some consolidation if it looks like this..
I’m very skeptical of a pollster than can’t even do math correctly. Numbers need to sum to the total, at least approximately – this isn’t even close.