Tag Archive: Israel Elections


Kantar conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on January 23 2020. The poll was conducted on Jan 20-21.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [11] Labor-Gesher-Meretz (A.Peretz)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [07] Yamina (Bennett)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.93% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
0.45% [00] Sachar Kalkali (Gilad Alper)
0.20% [00] Tzomet (Moshe Green)
0.15% [00] Free Yigal Amir (Rananna Larisa Amir)
0.14% [00] Voice of Women (Mazal Shaul)
0.00% [00] All Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Midgam conducted a poll of 505 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on January 16 2020.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [07] Yamina (Bennett)
08 [11] Labor-Gesher-Meretz (A.Peretz)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
0.0% [00] Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
55 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

40% Netanyahu, 38% Gantz, 22% Don’t know

Should the Knesset open immunity proceedings on Netanyahu case before elections?

51% Yes, 33% No, 16% Don’t know

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 628 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by 103 FM (Maariv) on January 16 2020.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
30 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [11] Labor-Gesher-Meretz (A.Peretz)
09 [07] Yamina (Bennett)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
0% [00] Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
54 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 604 people with a 3.6% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on January 16 2020.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [11] Labor-Gesher-Meretz (A.Peretz)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] Yamina (Bennett)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [09] Shas (Deri)
04 [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

0.0% [00] Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

40% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 17% Neither, 7% Don’t know

Should have Netanyahu placed Ben Gvir on the Likud list?

40% No, 38% Don’t know, 22% Yes

Was Peretz correct in breaking his deal with Otzma?

41% Don’t know, 26% No, 22% Yes, 11% Not aware of subject

Kantar conducted a poll of 751 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on January 16 2020.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [11] Labor-Gesher-Meretz (A.Peretz)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] Yamina (Bennett)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
0.0% [00] Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

42% Gantz, 41% Netanyahu, 17% Don’t know

Should the Knesset open immunity proceedings on Netanyahu case before elections?

44% Yes, 38% No, 18% Don’t know

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 574 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Channel 7 on January 14 2020.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [10] Labor + Meretz (A.Peretz)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] HaYamin HeHadash + National Union (Bennett)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [02] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz)
2.3% [01] Green Movement (Shaffir)
00 [00] Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Midgam conducted a poll of 505 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on January 13 2020.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [11] Labor + Meretz (A.Peretz)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [00] Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: HaYamin HeHadash + United Right List

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [07] HaYamin HeHadash + United Right List (Bennett)
09 [11] Labor + Meretz (A.Peretz)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [00] Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Question:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

39% Netanyahu, 39% Gantz, 16% Neither, 6% Don’t know

Knesset Jeremy Polling Average. State of the race updated on Jan 12th 2020. (Final party lists to be submitted by Jan 15 at 10 PM Israeli Time)

PartyLeaderPredicted Seats3rd Election (15 Polls)Between 2nd & 3rd Election (20 Polls)Current Seats
Blue & WhiteGantz3635.234.533
Likud Netanyahu333232.832
Joint List Odeh1413.212.813
Shas Deri97.97.959
Yisrael BeitenuLieberman87.488
UTJLitzman87.37.37
HaYamin HeHadashBennett65.95.953
LaborA. Peretz65.24.956
Democratic UnionHorowitz03.54.555
United Right ListR. Peretz02.41.24
BlocPredicted Seats3rd Election (15 Polls)Between 2nd & 3rd Election (20 Polls)Current Seats
Center-Left-Arab5657.157.157
Right-Religious5655.554.955
Lieberman87.488

Note #1: The current KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 15 polls that were released by Midgam (4), Panels (3), Smith (2), Maagar Mochot (2), Kantar (2), Project (1) & Miskar (1). The first poll was broadcast on December 12th 2019 and the last poll was published on January 10 2019.

Note #2: The previous KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 20 polls that were released between the second and third elections. The polls were conducted by Midgam (6), Maagar Mochot (6), Panel Project HaMdigam (4), Kantar (2), Smith (1), & Panels (1). The first poll was Oct 7 and the last poll was Dec 10. 3 polls were conducted in October, 12 polls were conducted in November & 5 polls were conducted in December.

Note #3: Results are calculated to allow me to maintain an 120-seat framework for the blocs. The Democratic Union did not pass the threshold in 3 of the 15 polls. The United Right List did not pass the threshold in 7 of the 15 polls. All of the other parties passed the threshold in each of the polls.

Panels conducted a poll of 509 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Makor Rishon on January 10 2020.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [02] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
00 [02] National Union/Tekuma (Smotrich)
00 [01] Green Party

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll #1: HaYamin HeHadasah + Bayit Yehudi + National Union/Tekuma + Otzma

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [07] HaYamin HeHadash + Bayit Yehudi + National Union/Tekuma + Otzma (Bennett)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
0% [01] Green Party

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Scenario Poll #2: Bayit Yehudi + National Union/Tekuma + Otzma

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
06 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
0% [01] Green Party

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Scenario Poll #3: Yamina runs together, Otzma alone.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [07] Yamina/HaYamin HeHadash + National Union + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
2.1% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
0% [01] Green Party

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Scenario Poll #4: HaYamin HeHadash + National Union, Bayit Yehudi + Otzma

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [05] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett + Smotrich)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [02] Bayit Yehudi + Otzma (R.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
0% [01] Green Party

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 508 people that was published by Yisrael Hayom on January 10 2020.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
30 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
15 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
05 [02] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz)
04 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.0% [02] National Union/Tekuma (Smotrich)
0.2% [01] Green Party

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
54 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll #1: Labor + Democratic Union

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
30 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
11 [10] Labor (A.Peretz) + Democratic Union (Horowitz)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
06 [02] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1% [02] National Union/Tekuma (Smotrich)
0% [01] Green Party

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Scenario Poll #2: HaYamin HeHadasah + Bayit Yehudi + National Union/Tekuma + Otzma

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
29 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
11 [07] HaYamin HeHadash + Bayit Yehudi + National Union/Tekuma + Otzma (Bennett)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

0% [01] Green Party

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Scenario Poll #3: Bayit Yehudi + National Union/Tekuma + Otzma

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
29 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
05 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

0% [01] Green Party

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

43% Netanyahu, 38% Gantz, 19% Don’t know

Do you support Netanyahu’s request for immunity?

53% No, 28% Yes, 19% Don’t know

Should immunity be discussed now or after election?

38% Now, 37% After Election, 25% Don’t know

What are the odds you will come out to vote?

62% Yes, 23% Likely, 11% Unlikely, 4% Possibly