Tag Archive: Israel Elections


Midagm conducted a poll of 505 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was conducted on November 21 2019 and broadcast by Channel 12 the same day.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [07] Yamina (Shaked)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

56 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
09 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

If the election was held today would you go out and vote?

60% Yes, 40% Other answers

Who is at fault for the failure of national unity government?

49% Netanyahu, 42% Lieberman, 25% Gantz, 10% Don’t know, 4% Someone else

Right voters: 55% Lieberman, 36% Gantz, 36% Netanyahu, 9% Don’t know, 2% Someone else
Center & Left: 73% Netanyahu, 25% Lieberman, 10% Gantz, 8% Don’t know, 5% Someone else

What should Netanyahu do after indictment?

46% Resign, 30% Stay on until verdict, 17% Recuse himself, 7% Don’t know

Right voters: 45% Stay on, 30% Resign, 18% Recuse, 7% Don’t know
Center & Left: 71% Resign, 17% Recuse, 7% Stay on, 5% Don’t know

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was published by Yisrael HaYom on November 15 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [09] Shas (Deri)
09 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
06 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
05 [07] Yamina (Shaked)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
53 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
09 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

If there was a straight up vote for Prime Minister who would you vote for?

43% Netanyahu, 41% Gantz, 16% Don’t know

What coalition do you prefer?

40% Unity Government, 28% Right Government, 17% Center-Left Government, 15% Don’t know

If there are elections will you vote?

64% For sure, 18% Low chance, 14% High chance, 4% Medium chance

What is your level of trust in following institutions?

Political Arena: 64% Low, 26% Average, 10% High
Press & Media: 53% Low, 27% Average, 20% High
State Prosecution: 44% Low, 28% Average, 28% High
Police: 42% Low, 36% Average, 22% High
Court System: 38% High, 37% Low, 25% Average
Supreme Court: 44% High, 35% Low, 21% Average

Over the last year has your trust in state institutions gone up or down?

54% Down, 34% No change, 10% In some cases went up and in some cases went down, 2% Up

Have the leaks and publications about Netanyahu’s investigations influenced your position on him?

49% No, 25% Influenced for the worse, 16% Influenced for the better, 10% Don’t know

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 704 people with a margin of error of 4.1% that was broadcast by Channel 13 on November 10 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
34 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
06 [09] Shas (Deri)
06 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [04] Bayit Yehudi-National Union (R.Petetz)
04 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
54 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
09 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

If there was a straight up vote for Prime Minister who would you vote for?

40% Netanyahu, 37% Gantz, 23% Don’t know

Who is to blame if there is another election?

41% Netanyahu, 31% Lieberman, 15% Don’t know, 7% Gantz, 6% None

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 507 people with a margin of error of 4.1% that was broadcast by 103 FM Radio on October 31 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
12 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
06 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [07] Yamina (Bennett, Shaked & R.Petetz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
54 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

  • Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.
  • Yamina has split but for some reason the pollster chose to poll them together.

Additional Questions:

Who is at fault if we go to another election?

52% Netanyahu, 21% Lieberman, 19% Lapid, 8% Gantz

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 706 people with a margin of error of 4.1% that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 22 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [04] Bayit Yehudi-National Union (R.Petetz & Smotrich)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett & Shaked)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

  • Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Question:

Who is at fault if we go to another election?

37% Netanyahu, 30% Both, 21% Gantz, 8% Neither, 4% Don’t know

Midgam conducted a poll of 513 people with a margin of error of 4.4% that was published by Walla on October 7 2019. It was conducted between October 3-6.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] Yamina (Shaked)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

  • Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
26 [32] Likud (Saar)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
12 [07] Yamina (Shaked)
10 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Do you support a national unity government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu?

50% No, 42% Yes, 8% Don’t know

Right voters: 54% Yes, 41% No, 5% Don’t know
Center & Left: 68% No, 26% Yes, 6% Don’t know

Who should lead the Likud?

35% Netanyahu, 29% Saar, 20% Don’t know, 8% Other, 5% Edelstein, 2% Erdan, 1% Katz

Right voters: 54% Netanyahu, 24% Saar, 9% Don’t know, 5% Other, 5% Edelstein, 2% Erdan, 1% Katz
Center & Left: 41% Saar, 29% Don’t know, 13% Other, 8% Netanyahu, 6% Edelstein, 2% Katz, 1% Erdan

Phase 2 Update

On September 25th, President Rivlin chose Prime Minister Netanyahu as the first candidate to form Israel’s next government. Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised President Rivlin that he will not try to activate Section 12 of “Basic: Law The Government” which triggered the September Knesset Election.

The first candidate receives 28 days to form a government. The first candidate may ask for an extension and the President may grant him up to 14 days. Additionally, the President can choose to break up the 14 days into separate extensions and force the candidate to keep returning for additional extensions. In any event the first candidate cannot hold on to the mandate for more than 42 days.

The first candidate can choose at any point to hand back the mandate to the President early.

If the first candidate fails or chooses to return the mandate early that leaves the President with three options that he has up to three days to consider:

A) He can grant the mandate to the alternative candidate from the first round of consultations.

B) He can conduct another round of consultations in the hopes that an additional candidate will emerge in addition to the alternative candidate from the first consultations. The first candidate cannot be chosen as the second candidate.

In the event the the second candidate that is appointed in A or B fails to form a government the mandate is then transferred from the President to the Knesset.

C) He can choose to inform the Knesset Speaker that there is no second candidate and the mandate is then transferred from the President to the Knesset .

The Knesset then has two options:

A) For the next 21 days the Knesset may put forth a third candidate to the President by submitting 61 MKs signatures. Any MK can participate.

The President will have two days to process the request.

B) If the Knesset fails to put forth their own candidate that will automatically trigger a snap-election.

The third candidate has 14 days to inform the Speaker & President he has formed a government. The Speaker can delay the vote for an additional seven days if necessary.

In the event the third candidate fails to form a government a snap-election will automatically be triggered.

If all three candidates (or two if the President forfeits his ability to choose a second candidate himself) fail to form a government so a snap-election would take place 84-90 days later on a Tuesday.

Section 43 of “Basic Law: The Government” allows the Knesset in certain circumstances, within five days of the Knesset candidate failing to form a government, to push off the election up to 100 days if necessary.

Five lists arrived at the President’s Residence today for “Day 1”. Six lists arrived today for “Day 2”.

Yesterday, on Day 1, Netanyahu was nominated by Likud (31) & Shas (9). Gantz was nominated by Blue & White (33) and The Joint List (13). Yisrael Beitenu (8) chose not to nominate anyone. After Yisrael Beitenu’s decision not to nominate the Balad Party (3) that is part of The Joint List chose to inform the President that they wish to withdraw their nomination. Rivlin accepted their request.

At the end of Day 1, Gantz had 43 nominations to Netanyahu’s 40 nominations with 11 MKs choosing not to nominate anyone.

Today, on Day 2, Netanyahu was nominated by UTJ (8) & Yamina (7). Gantz was nominated by Labor-Gesher (6) & Democratic Union (5).

At the end of Day 2, Netanyahu has 55 nominations to Gantz’s 54 nominations with 11 MKs choosing not to nominate anyone.

For the first time since Israel abolished the direct PM system there is no candidate with 61 nominations. The President will have to choose who will receive the first mandate to form a new government between the two Prime Ministerial candidates.

President Rivlin has invited both Netanyahu & Gantz to a meeting tonight. Both accepted.

This post includes two tables. The final election results and the Double Envelopes (Absentee Voting).

There are still 14 ballot boxes that have various issues with them but the combined total is not enough to change the seat allocation. Therefore these are the final results but not the official results. The official results must be certified by September 25th so the vote total could change slightly before the results are certified.

President Rivlin received permission from Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer to start the Phase 2 consultations before the Phase 1 results are certified. The Phase 2 consultations will be conducted Sunday and Monday. The President is expected to grant the mandate to form the next government on Monday.

Assuming neither candidate receives 61 nominations the President will still need to choose a candidate to form a government. It will be at his discretion in the event neither candidate reaches 61 nominations, but he must choose one of them. If the first candidate fails so the mandate will be returned to the President. The President can either conduct another round of consultations or grant the mandate to the alternative candidate from the first consultations. If the second candidate the President chooses fails to form a government so the mandate will be transferred from the President to the Knesset. The Knesset may put forth a third candidate to the President for his approval by submitting 61 MKs signatures. In the event the third candidate fails to form a government a snap-election will automatically be triggered and take place 84-90 days later on a Tuesday.

Table 1: Final Results

Eligible VotersTotal VotersTurnoutKosher VotesDisqualified Votes
6,394,0304,458,16769.72%4,430,56627,601
PartyLeaderSeatsPercentageVotes
Blue & WhiteGantz3325.93% 1,148,700
LikudNetanyahu3125.09% 1,111,535
Joint ListOdeh1310.62% 470,611
ShasDeri97.44% 329,834
Yisrael BeitenuLieberman86.99% 309,688
UTJLitzmna86.06% 268,688
YaminaShaked75.88% 260,339
LaborPeretz64.80% 212,529
Democratic UnionHorowitz54.34% 192,261
Under the 3.25% Electoral Threshold    
OtzmaBen Gvir01.88% 83,266
TzometGreen00.33% 14,817
 Other Parties Various 0 Each under 0.15% Each
under
6,000

Table 2: Absentee Votes/Double Envelopes

Total VotersKosher VotesDisqualified Votes
279,412277,2122,200
PartyPercentageVotes
Blue & White30.18% 83,670
Likud27.81% 77,096
Yamina8.85% 24,543
Shas6.29% 17,434
Yisrael Beitenu5.01% 13,879
Democratic Union4.95% 13,711
Labor4.72% 13,074
Joint List4.28% 11,858
UTJ4.17% 11,559
Otzma2.35% 6,520
Other PartiesEach under 0.4%Each under 1,100

This post includes three tables. The election results, the exit poll averages and the accuracy of the exit polls.

The final results including the double envelopes/absentee ballots are expected either tomorrow night or Friday morning. The results must be certified eight days after the election – September 25th.

President Rivlin can ask Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer permission to start the Phase 2 consultations before the Phase 1 results are certified. It is at Meltzer’s discretion to agree or not. In the April election Meltzer allowed Rivlin to carry out his consultations before the results were certified.

Table 1: Final Results before Double Envelopes (Absentee Voting)

PartyLeaderSeatsPercentage Votes
Blue & WhiteGantz3325.66% 1,035,624
LikudNetanyahu3225.03% 1,010,237
Joint ListOdeh1210.72% 432,741
ShasDeri97.57% 305,712
Yisrael BeitenuLieberman87.12% 287,305
UTJLitzmna86.23% 251,645
YaminaShaked75.72% 230,907
LaborPeretz64.81% 194,211
Democratic UnionHorowitz54.30% 173,374
Under the 3.25% Electoral Threshold (Under 6K not listed)    
OtzmaBen Gvir01.87% 75,301
TzometGreen00.34% 13,622

Table 2: Each Exit Poll & Exit Poll AVG

PartyExit Poll AVGChannel 11Channel 13Channel 12
Blue & White33323334
Likud32323133
Joint List12121311
Shas8.7998
Yisrael Beitenu8.71088
UTJ8888
Yamina7768
Labor5.3565
Democratic Union5.3565

Table 3: Accuracy of Exit Poll AVG

PartyExit Poll AVGCurrent ResultsDifference
Blue & White33330
Likud32320
Joint List12120
Shas8.79-0.3
Yisrael Beitenu8.78-0.7
UTJ880
Yamina770
Labor5.36-0.7
Democratic Union5.35-0.07