Jeremy's Knesset Insider

This week Gantz’s party dropped 1.2 seats, this is the largest drop of any party on a week to week basis since the candidate lists were submitted. Yesh Atid also took a beating, dropping 0.6 since the last average. Yisrael Beitenu took a slight loss of 0.1. Not everything was negative for the anti-Netanyahu bloc as Labor gained 0.5 and Meretz went up 0.3.

Likud gained 0.7 and Smotrich’s party went up 0.4. Smotrich’s gain and Gantz’s loss has created a 2-seat advantage for Smotrich in the fight for third place. This is the best showing for the Netanyahu bloc in the average (60.8 to be exact).

Lapid’s bloc made gains the previous week when the agenda was focused on the possible disqualifications of Chikli, Silman, Balad and Raam. Netanyahu’s bloc made gains this past week when the agenda was on the proposed deal with Lebanon.

The KnessetJeremy Average shows Netanyahu’s bloc dropping from 60 to 59 seats. Likud took the largest drop of 0.8 of seat. Labor dropped for the second straight week, this week 0.2 compared to 0.4 last week. Hadash-Taal also dropped for the second straight week, with the same marks both weeks.

Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu gained 0.4 and Gantz’s party also gained 0.4 this week. Lapid gained 0.2 for the second consecutive week. Smotrich’s party also gained 0.2 following a 0.2 gain last week.

The KnessetJeremy Average 6 weeks out from election day shows a 60-60 tie between the Netanyahu bloc and the Lapid bloc + Hadash-Taal.

If we look at the snapshot 6 weeks before the previous election, we will see that 8 of the 13 parties that would pass the threshold were already within a seat of their election results.

The five exceptions are New Hope and Yamina who would gradually drop, losing a good portion of support to Blue & White, and the Joint List who would lose support to Raam.

It is important to note that at this time in the previous election Raam only passed the electoral threshold in one of the four polls conducted after the submission of the lists. Blue & White passed in two of the four.

Over the coming weeks I will monitor the trend of the 2022 election and attempt to predict the direction of momentum in this election based on the 2021 data.