The KnessetJeremy Average 6 weeks out from election day shows a 60-60 tie between the Netanyahu bloc and the Lapid bloc + Hadash-Taal.
If we look at the snapshot 6 weeks before the previous election, we will see that 8 of the 13 parties that would pass the threshold were already within a seat of their election results.
The five exceptions are New Hope and Yamina who would gradually drop, losing a good portion of support to Blue & White, and the Joint List who would lose support to Raam.
It is important to note that at this time in the previous election Raam only passed the electoral threshold in one of the four polls conducted after the submission of the lists. Blue & White passed in two of the four.
Over the coming weeks I will monitor the trend of the 2022 election and attempt to predict the direction of momentum in this election based on the 2021 data.
| 2022 Election Party | Poll Seat Est | Poll Avg | ||
| Likud | 33 | 32.6 | ||
| Yesh Atid | 24 | 23.6 | ||
| National Unity | 12 | 12.2 | ||
| Religious Zionist | 12 | 12 | ||
| Shas | 8 | 8.2 | ||
| UTJ | 7 | 7 | ||
| Yisrael Beitenu | 6 | 5.8 | ||
| Labor | 5 | 5.4 | ||
| Meretz | 5 | 4.8 | ||
| Hadash-Taal | 4 | 4.4 | ||
| Raam | 4 | 4 | ||
| Netanyahu Bloc | 60 | |||
| Lapid w/H-T | 60 | |||
| Lapid w/o H-T | 56 | |||
| 2021 Election Party | Poll Seat Est | Poll Avg | Gap | Elex Results |
| Likud | 30 | 29.25 | 0 | 30 |
| Yesh Atid | 17 | 16.75 | 0 | 17 |
| New Hope | 15 | 14.25 | -9 | 6 |
| Yamina | 11 | 11 | -4 | 7 |
| Joint List | 9 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| Shas | 8 | 7.75 | 1 | 9 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| UTJ | 7 | 6.75 | 0 | 7 |
| Labor | 6 | 6.25 | 1 | 7 |
| Religious Zionist | 5 | 4.5 | 1 | 6 |
| Meretz | 5 | 4.5 | 1 | 6 |
| Blue & White | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Raam | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 