Jeremy's Knesset Insider

In the table below I measure the gap between the Knesset Jeremy Average (4 days before election), the exit polls of Channels 11,12,13&14 and the final election results.

The last average compares three different polling averages. Last week’s average is compared to an average of the 15 polls released during the Monday-Friday period of October 24 – October 28. The most recent average is a 7 poll average consisting of the last seven polls released during the last two days before the polling ban. These represent the last polls conducted by the seven polling companies that have released public polls during this cycle: Maagar Mochot, Direct Polls, Kantar, Panels, Smith, Midgam and Kamil Fuchs.

Let’s take a look at the trends and momentum leading up to Election Day: Likud is dropping from 31.6 to 31.5 to 31.1. Yesh Atid is going up from 24.3 to 24.6 to 24.9. Smotrich is rising 13.4 to 13.6 to 14. Gantz appears to be dropping, as he went from 11.6 to 11.7 to 11.3. Shas’s stock is increasing from 8.1 to 8.5 to 8.6. UTJ is losing steam with 7 to 6.9 to 6.8. Yisrael Beitenu is dropping from 6.3 to 5.7. Labor is growing from 5 to 5.3. Meretz is falling from 4.7 to 4.5 to 4.3. Hadash-Taal & Raam both remain steady at 4. Both Bayit Yehudi & Balad who are under the threshold are making gains as we reach the homestretch.

As for the blocs so Bibi’s bloc has hit 60.5, that rounds up to 61, yet the downward trend of Likud & UTJ makes it very likely that it falls back to 60. Lapid’s bloc with Hadash-Taal hits 59.5, yet if one of the parties falls under the threshold it will become more complicated to block Netanyahu’s bloc. Lapid’s bloc without Hadash-Taal of 55.5 is far short from being able to form a coalition.

Smotrich made the most significant gain with a 0.6 jump. Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu went up for the second straight week, this time by 0.3.

Likud dropped for the second consecutive week, this time by 0.5. Gantz also went down this week, this time by 0.3. Lapid’s Yesh Atid also lost 0.1.

Overall, we remain stuck at a 60-60 deadlock between the two blocs.

This week will be the last week that polls can be conducted and released. The polling blackout begins midnight between Friday and Saturday.

Yesh Atid makes largest gain of 0.9 and Likud takes biggest drop of 0.7 – narrowing the gap between the two bloc leaders to 7.7 seats.

Inside the Netanyahu camp, in addition to the Likud’s drop, Shas dropped slightly with a 0.1 loss. The Anti-Netanyahu Bloc continued to see fluctuation as Gantz made gains of 0.7 & Liberman went up 0.2. Both Labor & Meretz dropped 0.5 each. Another interesting development is that all of the major parties currently polling under the threshold went up slightly – Shaked, Balad, Zalika, Kara & Muchtar.

Netanyahu’s bloc stands at 60. Lapid’s bloc is at 60 with Hadash-Taal and 56 without them.