Jeremy's Knesset Insider

In the table below I measure the gap between the Knesset Jeremy Average (4 days before election), the exit polls of Channels 11,12,13&14 and the final election results.

The last average compares three different polling averages. Last week’s average is compared to an average of the 15 polls released during the Monday-Friday period of October 24 – October 28. The most recent average is a 7 poll average consisting of the last seven polls released during the last two days before the polling ban. These represent the last polls conducted by the seven polling companies that have released public polls during this cycle: Maagar Mochot, Direct Polls, Kantar, Panels, Smith, Midgam and Kamil Fuchs.

Let’s take a look at the trends and momentum leading up to Election Day: Likud is dropping from 31.6 to 31.5 to 31.1. Yesh Atid is going up from 24.3 to 24.6 to 24.9. Smotrich is rising 13.4 to 13.6 to 14. Gantz appears to be dropping, as he went from 11.6 to 11.7 to 11.3. Shas’s stock is increasing from 8.1 to 8.5 to 8.6. UTJ is losing steam with 7 to 6.9 to 6.8. Yisrael Beitenu is dropping from 6.3 to 5.7. Labor is growing from 5 to 5.3. Meretz is falling from 4.7 to 4.5 to 4.3. Hadash-Taal & Raam both remain steady at 4. Both Bayit Yehudi & Balad who are under the threshold are making gains as we reach the homestretch.

As for the blocs so Bibi’s bloc has hit 60.5, that rounds up to 61, yet the downward trend of Likud & UTJ makes it very likely that it falls back to 60. Lapid’s bloc with Hadash-Taal hits 59.5, yet if one of the parties falls under the threshold it will become more complicated to block Netanyahu’s bloc. Lapid’s bloc without Hadash-Taal of 55.5 is far short from being able to form a coalition.

Smotrich made the most significant gain with a 0.6 jump. Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu went up for the second straight week, this time by 0.3.

Likud dropped for the second consecutive week, this time by 0.5. Gantz also went down this week, this time by 0.3. Lapid’s Yesh Atid also lost 0.1.

Overall, we remain stuck at a 60-60 deadlock between the two blocs.

This week will be the last week that polls can be conducted and released. The polling blackout begins midnight between Friday and Saturday.

Yesh Atid makes largest gain of 0.9 and Likud takes biggest drop of 0.7 – narrowing the gap between the two bloc leaders to 7.7 seats.

Inside the Netanyahu camp, in addition to the Likud’s drop, Shas dropped slightly with a 0.1 loss. The Anti-Netanyahu Bloc continued to see fluctuation as Gantz made gains of 0.7 & Liberman went up 0.2. Both Labor & Meretz dropped 0.5 each. Another interesting development is that all of the major parties currently polling under the threshold went up slightly – Shaked, Balad, Zalika, Kara & Muchtar.

Netanyahu’s bloc stands at 60. Lapid’s bloc is at 60 with Hadash-Taal and 56 without them.

This week Gantz’s party dropped 1.2 seats, this is the largest drop of any party on a week to week basis since the candidate lists were submitted. Yesh Atid also took a beating, dropping 0.6 since the last average. Yisrael Beitenu took a slight loss of 0.1. Not everything was negative for the anti-Netanyahu bloc as Labor gained 0.5 and Meretz went up 0.3.

Likud gained 0.7 and Smotrich’s party went up 0.4. Smotrich’s gain and Gantz’s loss has created a 2-seat advantage for Smotrich in the fight for third place. This is the best showing for the Netanyahu bloc in the average (60.8 to be exact).

Lapid’s bloc made gains the previous week when the agenda was focused on the possible disqualifications of Chikli, Silman, Balad and Raam. Netanyahu’s bloc made gains this past week when the agenda was on the proposed deal with Lebanon.

The KnessetJeremy Average shows Netanyahu’s bloc dropping from 60 to 59 seats. Likud took the largest drop of 0.8 of seat. Labor dropped for the second straight week, this week 0.2 compared to 0.4 last week. Hadash-Taal also dropped for the second straight week, with the same marks both weeks.

Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu gained 0.4 and Gantz’s party also gained 0.4 this week. Lapid gained 0.2 for the second consecutive week. Smotrich’s party also gained 0.2 following a 0.2 gain last week.

The KnessetJeremy Average 6 weeks out from election day shows a 60-60 tie between the Netanyahu bloc and the Lapid bloc + Hadash-Taal.

If we look at the snapshot 6 weeks before the previous election, we will see that 8 of the 13 parties that would pass the threshold were already within a seat of their election results.

The five exceptions are New Hope and Yamina who would gradually drop, losing a good portion of support to Blue & White, and the Joint List who would lose support to Raam.

It is important to note that at this time in the previous election Raam only passed the electoral threshold in one of the four polls conducted after the submission of the lists. Blue & White passed in two of the four.

Over the coming weeks I will monitor the trend of the 2022 election and attempt to predict the direction of momentum in this election based on the 2021 data.