Direct Polls conducted a poll of 557 people with a 4% margin of error that was published by Makor Rishon on March 15 2019. The poll was conducted on March 13.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
32 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
09 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
2.9% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
2.7% [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
2.6% [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
1.7% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
Under 1%
0.5% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
0.2% [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan) and others
63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B
Additional Question:
Who do you think will form the next government?
56% Netanyahu, 39% Gantz, 5% Don’t know
again what seems to me to be clear from these recent polls is that the center right will have a clear majority as far as actual votes go, to ensure that this is reflected in the blocks Bibi is going to have to do some clever campaign to draw votes from the weaker right parties for Likud
It is unlikely that Gantz will include Feiglin in a coalition. However can one be sure that Feiglin will not recommend Gantz to Rivlin.
Dont be so sure. Feiglin has a score to settle with Bibi.
Looks like a small percentage of right wing voters are oscillating between Likud and YB/Kulanu. When the Likud is up it seems that YB/Kulanu don’t cross over. Will be interesting to see how it pans out.
That aside, it doesnt seem like Blue and White is peeling any voters off of the right. They must be worried at Gantz HQ.
Likud really needs Yisrael Beitenu or Kulanu to cross the threshold. They need to be able to command a clear majority without Zehut. Zehut may not be able to sit in a coalition with United Torah Judaism, or even Shas or United Right. If this poll is accurate, the right can only muster 59 seats without Zehut.
I would like to think that UTJ and Shas wouldn’t be THAT uptight about legal marijuana, but one never knows.
My thought was not so much on Zehut’s position on legal marijuana, but their position on reducing the power of the rabbinate and allowing secular marriage. Those are deal killers for UTJ.
Feiglin knows he can’t get all (or even most) of what he wants. He seems to be making Mary Jane his #1 ask and I think he’ll get that. I mean, his ideal government would probably be Likud+Blue & White+Kulanu+Yisrael Beitenu+Hayamin Hehadash+Zehut, but I don’t see that as being all that likely.
Beth – I find the idea that they are no deal killers for the other religious parties to be very sad. It’s the religious zionists who built those institutions.
Zehut can sit just fine with those parties. There have been far more awkward coalition partners in the past.
Feiglin’s view, in the broader sense is probably more Chareidi-friendly than any other, and he seems to be less bigoted in that regard. in my experience in talking to people from different backgrounds, that if there is one issue that unites religious Jews across the ideological spectrum, it’s opposition to civil divorce, as they understand that it could split the Jewish people irreparably.