Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 605 people with a 4% margin of error that was published by Yisrael Hayom on March 15 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
26 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
06 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
2% [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
2% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
0% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
Under 1%
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others
66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B
Additional Questions:
Who is more suited for Prime Minister?
44% Netanyahu, 37% Gantz, 19% Don’t know
Where would you put Zehut on the political map?
53% Right, 28% Don’t know, 13% Center, 6% Left
Do you support Netanyahu’s policy of sending money into Gaza?
52% No, 28% Yes, 20% Don’t know
Note: Voter percentage by party that are certain they will vote:
76% Labor, 74% HaYamin HeHadash, 73% Zehut, 70% Kulanu, 69% Yisrael Beitenu, 68% Likud, 66% Blue & White, 64% Gesher, 64% Meretz, 63% URL, 62% Raam-Balad, 54% UTJ, 47% Shas, 29% Hadash-Taal, 26% Other parties
Zehut – 5 mandates is “very good news “for Netanyahu: He may not “worry” any longer that Feiglin “will not pass barrier”.
Sorry to burst ur bubble, but its bad news for bibi that feiglin passes the threshold, these 2 guys cant get along and feiglin said he wont sit in bibi’s coalition.
no bubble burst and Feiglin didn’t say that
So depending on if Zehut, YB and Ra’am-Balad pass threshold, we could see anywhere from a 60-60 split to a 66-54 split. I’d bet right now on all 3 passing the threshold and a 64-56 result.
It’s interesting to see that prospective Shas and UTJ voters are quite unsure about their decision. One would expect the opposite. Anybody have any explanation why?
i’m not tuned in currently. Historically – UTJ voters may decide not to vote, as voting itself is still somewhat controversial in part of the Chareidi camp. Or they may vote for Shas. Shas may still have some of the Dati Leumi support it had while Rav Yoseph was alive.
I am not sure whether the poll is asking whether voters stating a preference for a party are sure that they would vote for that party, or whether they are sure they will vote at all. Haredi and Arab voters are usually less enthusiastic about voting at all (although the big gap between Raam Balad voters and Hadash Taal voters on this issue makes no sense.) If the poll is measuring voters’ fealty to their party, my guess would be that “Chardal” voters could swing from UTJ to United Right and Shas voters could swing to Likud or other parties. Additionally, if the question is fealty to party, it is odd that 64% of Gesher voters are sure to vote Gesher when the party has rarely cleared the threshold. That’s why I think the question is about likelihood to vote at all.