Panels conducted a poll of 537 people with a 4.2% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on March 3 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
38 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
2.9% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
2.8% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.2% [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
2.1% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
Under 1%:
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
59 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
61 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B
Note: 17% of 2015 Likud voters are now voting for Blue & White
Additional Question:
Should Netanyahu remain Prime Minister?
50% No, 41% Yes, 9% Don’t know
again if I were Likud I would be smiling if these polls were reasonably accurate, votes for Likud holding steady after Mandelblit is astounding. This will all come down to bibi’s great campaigning skills in the last 2 weeks. I believe the Shas and UTJ will hold their votes despite what any polls currently say, I am more concerned with Kulanu and YB passing the threshold, I think Likud pulling their votes is a real possibility
Kulanu has been near the threshold for weeks. YB was near the threshold but the last few polls seem to have dropped to 2.5% or so. I think Likud needs them both to clear the threshold, as there are no parties on the other side of the ledger that would under any circumstances support Likud.
The country is so entrenched and polarized, I don’t see a total Likud collapse. At most, there may be a notable realignment on the right with Likud voters moving over to the Hayamin Hehadash or United Right, or maybe the Haredi parties. I just don’t see Likudniks abandoning their ideology en masse.
It’s interesting that Jeremy’s weekly tally has shown that Kulanu has some legs and that YB is collapsing. I tjiught Kulanu was finished. I could definitely see the Likud siphoning off some of those votes but I think both parties voters could find appeal in the Blue and White brand.
Little confused. Likud had 29 seats in the government. It’s now polling at 30. That seems to contradict the claim it’s lossy 17% of it’s voters. The weakness on the right is Kulanu collapsing