Teleseker conducted a poll of 550 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11/Kan on March 1 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
37 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
29 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
3% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
3% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
2% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
Under 1%:
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
59 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
61 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B
Additional Questions:
The AG made his decision based on…?
58% Professional considerations, 42% Pressure from the media and the left
How should the Prime Minister act after the AG decision?
36% Resign, 32% Resign only if indicted after the hearing, 23% Stay on, 8% Don’t know
Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?
41% Gantz, 40% Netanyahu, 19% Don’t know
This week there was post by a woman who said she was sexually harassed by Gantz. Gantz has denied the allegations. Who do you believe?
42% Don’t know, 38% Gantz, 20% Woman
Note: Only 4% Blue and White voters believe the woman.
If the 3 March 2nd polls are reasonably accurate and post Mandelblit then Likud should be quite pleased. They show minimal impact and Bibi is a great campaigner, The final 3 weeks should be exciting and turbulent
Can somebody explain to me why Ta’al gave the better slots on their list to Hadash? They were polling quite well by themselves and seem to have picked up at most one seat when Hadash was added to their list, but Ta’al gave better slots to Hadash. Why did they do that?
It looks like B&W is taking 12 seats from Labor, 6 from the late Hatnuah and likely 5 from Kulanu, on top of the 11 Yesh Atid votes. That still does not explain where their other 3 seats are coming from. Perhaps YB?
Likud and the parties further to the right are holding steady. It would be interesting to know whether the number of seats the right coalition is losing to B&W (likely Kulanu seats) is compensated (or more than compensated) by the number of seats gained by the United Right coalition. That is, aside from the damage to Netanyahu’s reputation, was forging the UR merger the electorally correct thing to do? Or did it cause more voters to turn away from the right coalition than whatever was gained?
Another question: Kulanu and YB are consistently near or below the threshold. Wouldn’t it have been better for Likud to merge with one or both of them to avoid losing seats?
My guess is that they are making a play for the ultra-left anti-Zionist Jewish votes—the ones who voted Joint List last time but might be tempted this time around to prop up Meretz (since Meretz is near the threshold in several polls.) Putting Hadash first night keep them and even attract former Meretz voters with no loss of Arab votes.
The above was actually a response to V related to Ta’al’s putting Hadash candidates at the top of their list.
Thanks. That makes some sense, though given Ta’al was polling at 6 without Hadash and will get – at best – 4 seats with this list, I don’t think I would have done it in their shoes.