Direct Polls conducted a poll of 735 people with a 3.5% margin of error for Kan (Channel 11) that was broadcast by Reshet Bet Radio on Feb 14 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
20 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.5% [03] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
2.4% [02] Tekuma (Smotrich)
2.3% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.1% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.8% [06] Livni Party
1.3% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
0.4% [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
0.3% [–] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
Under 0.3% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai), Green Leaf, Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and other
62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Scenario Poll #1 : Gantz+Lapid, Bayit Yehudi+Tekuma+Otzma+Yachad
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
34 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
29 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich) + Otzma (Ben Ari) + Otzma (Ben Ari)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
00 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
65 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
55 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Scenario Poll #2: Gantz+Yaalon+Levy
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
22 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Gesher (Levy)
11 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Tekuma (Smotrich) + Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
00 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Additional Questions:
Where would you place Gantz on the political map?
26% Left-Center, 26% Center, 22% Left, 17% Center-Right, 5% Don’t know 4% Right
Should Gantz join a Netanyahu coalition if invited and offered the Defense Ministry or should he sit in the opposition?
55% Opposition, 24% Defense Ministry, 21% Don’t know
Note: I will update the post when the complete numbers for the second scenario poll comes in.
The polling for the small right wing parties is pretty erratic. Maybe the statistical models for that sector could use an update.
I would say that applies to all parties with up to around 7 seats, there are too many and the I doubt if the pollsters have any real clue as to getting a proper statistical sample
Well, it’s just that the margin of error (of 3.5% in this poll) means that the confidence interval for, say, Israel Beitenu, is about between 2 and 10 seats (6 seats minus and plus 4 – remembering that if it’s 2-3 it’s below the threshold, so 0).
The difference between any pair of parties below 10 seats is almost statistically insignificant.