Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls
Current update: Saturday February 16th 2018.
Place | Party | Leader | Seats | KnessetJeremy AVG | Change | Week 7 AVG | Current |
1st | Likud | Netanyahu | 31 | 31 | 0 | 31 | 30 |
2nd | Israel Resilience | Gantz | 20 | 19.8 | -1.5 | 21.3 | 0 |
3rd | Yesh Atid | Lapid | 12 | 11.2 | 0.3 | 10.9 | 11 |
4th | Labor | Gabbai | 9 | 9 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 18 |
5th | HaYamin HeHadash | Bennett | 8 | 7.8 | 0.6 | 7.2 | 3 |
6th | UTJ | Litzman | 8 | 7.5 | 1 | 6.5 | 6 |
7th | Joint List | Odeh | 7 | 6.5 | -0.1 | 6.6 | 12 |
8th | Taal | Tibi | 7 | 6.2 | 0.6 | 5.6 | 1 |
9th | Shas | Deri | 5 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 4.9 | 7 |
10th | Meretz | Zandberg | 5 | 5.2 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 5 |
11th | Kulanu | Kahlon | 4 | 3.8 | -0.3 | 4.1 | 10 |
12th | Yisrael Beitenu | Liberman | 4 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 5 |
13th | Gesher | Levy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
14th | Other | Others | 0 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 1.7 | 0 |
15th | Bayit Yehudi | Peretz | 0 | 0 | -3.7 | 3.7 | 5 |
16th | Livni | Livni | 0 | 0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 6 |
Right-Religious | 60 | 60 | -2.9 | 62.9 | 66 | ||
Center-Left-Arab | 60 | 60 | 2.9 | 57.1 | 54 |
Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.
Note #2: This average is based on four polls that were released from Feb 12-14 (1 Panel Project HaMidgam, 1 Direct Polls, 1 Maagar Mochot and 1 Midgam).
Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/
Note #4: The official candidate lists will be submitted this coming week on Wed Feb 20 & Thurs Feb 21 2019.
Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)
It looks like it’s time that you can take Livni off and replace her with Feiglin (who is in any event already on the list as Other).
You can see a weekly graph of the Knesset Jeremy Poll of Polls here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d49cWZJMC3-5ZcaNh6MeVVg-EMdEPdRuaMZS3cPygeI/
How likely is a left+religious coalition?
From the seats column:
Resilience (20) + Yesh Atid (12) + Labor (9) + UTJ (8) + Shas (5) + Meretz (5) = 59
Add any other party, whether joint list, kulanu or even YB (who’s joined left wing coalitions before) and it’s over 60