Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 604 people with a 4% margin of error for Yisrael HaYom & I24 News that was published on Feb 14 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
19 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
12 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
56 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
64 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
Distribution of seats without electoral threshold:
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
16 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [01] Taal (Tibi)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
Under the 3.25% electoral threshold:
03 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
03 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
03 [–-] Otzma (Marzel)
02 [02] Tekuma (Smotrich)
01 [06] Livni Party
01 [03] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
01 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
01 [–-] Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others are all under 3.25% threshold.
49+13=62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56+02=58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Scenario Poll: Gantz + Lapid, Labor + Meretz, Bayit Yehudi+Tekuma+Otzma
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
32 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid)
28 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
12 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
11 [05] Otzma (Marzel) + Tekuma (Smotrich) + Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
09 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
Distribution of seats without electoral threshold:
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid)
26 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
11 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
10 [05] Otzma (Marzel) + Tekuma (Smotrich) + Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
08 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [01] Taal (Tibi)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
Under the 3.25% electoral threshold:
03 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
03 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
03 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
01 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [–-] Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others are all under 3.25% threshold.
57+07=64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
53+03=56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Additional Questions:
Who should lead center-left bloc?
44% None, 27% Gantz, 12% Lapid, 5% Gabbai, 4% Barak, 4% Livni, 4% Zandberg
Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?
33% Netanyahu, 25% Other answers, 21% Gantz, 10% Lapid, 6% Bennett, 3% Liberman, 2% Gabbai
What government should be formed after elections?
39% Right, 22% National Unity Government (Netanyahu & Gantz), 21% Left government, 19% Other answers
Will the 2019 elections be decisive for Israel’s future?
56% Yes, 26% In the middle, 18% No
If I were UTJ I would be smiling but wouldn’t believe it and If I were Shas I would be frowning but wouldn’t believe it either
All these right wing micro-parties need to get their act together quickly…
one thing is certain is that the UTJ and the joint list will have the exact same number of seats. I doubt that it will be 9.