Panels conducted a poll of 503 people with a margin of error of 4.5% that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Dec 15 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
22 [21] Labor-Livni
22 [18] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [–] Kulanu (Kachlon)
09 [19] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Meretz
06 [11] Shas
05 [04] Hadash
05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
72 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)
48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)
From the following list of people, which one would you like to see as Prime Minister after elections?
30% Netanyahu, 23% Don’t know, 21% Herzog, 11% Bennett, 4% Kachlon, 4% Livni, 4% Lapid, 3% Liberman
* Additional questions from the poll will be broadcast later in the day and I will add them.
* First poll taken after Livni’s TV “meltdown”
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Why do you keep making this distinction “Right Religion” vs. “Center Left Arab.” You’ve been around long enough to know that anything is possible in coalition talks. It could very easily end up being a Labor-Livni coalition including Kulanu, Yisrael Beitnu, Yesh Atid and even some of the religious parties (Shas. UTJ – especially considering how they were treated last election). That would give the left (so called left – center) 65 seats, and if you add Meretz, the left would have over 70
I have answered this 100s of times and there are even a few posts devoted to this topic.
Note the difference between the “Possible BB coalition” and the “Anti-BB coalition”.
Anti-BB coalition are the parties who rule out BB as PM. Possible BB coalition are the parties who do not rule out BB as PM. Liberman & Kachlon have both defined themselves (once again this week) as Center-Right, who am I to decide they are Center-Left?
Kachlon has been pushing the centrist narrative; I’m not sure where the “center-right” bit comes in. Regardless, center-right is typically a cover for populist opportunism. Tommy Lapid was a self-described center-rightist and even represented the right on Pop-Politika; and needless to say he was far from anything rightist.
Kachlon appears pretty clearly to be aiming at the void left by Kadima and now Yesh Atid for the party-less floating voters. These voters, who brought in Shinui, then Kadima, then Yesh Atid, are not truly centrist, however, in any meaningful sense. They’re explicitly dovish on foreign policy and are moderately capitalistic on economic issues. Center or center-left are both fitting descriptions, but given their proclivity to align themselves with the left bloc, I think they – including Kachlon – ought to be counted amongst the center-left rather than the right-religious.
Bloc break associations and coalition formation tends to be defined first and foremost by a party’s stance on the West Bank and negotiations, even if that places center-left parties with center-right ones, e.g. the outgoing government and its predecessor, where Bibi chose – to be flanked by parties to his left, Yesh Atid and HaTnua in 2013 and Labor in 2009.
I’d argue that Kachlon really cannot be counted in the R-R bloc. At the very least there is no indication that he would support a rightist government over a dovish one, and considering his recent remarks, he appears to be positioning himself to the left of Likud and to offer support for a center-left gov’t.
5 days ago Kachlon called himself again “center-right”.
http://www.inn.co.il/News/News.aspx/289007
I was going to ask the same question. Is there a link to one of the posts devoted to the topic?
I don’t think you can count on any of those “centrist” parties to not go with Livni/Herzog. I think we’re headed for an “upset. Also, Livni and Herzog are calling themselves Centrist, so …. There really aren’t too many right wing politicians out there. Everyone keeps moving left, and claiming to be right.
Your scenario is not realistic. Yesh Atid and the Haredim will never be in a government together. And Lieberman is far too hawkish for a dovish Labor led coalition, previous alliances (back when Labor and Kadima were less dovish) notwithstanding.
Lieberman is far from hawkish. He, like many others on the so called right, bluster and bluff with right wing rhetoric, but they keep moving towards the left. Oslo has become an irreversable fact. Lieberman has already declared he will give up territory in a peace deal. He will sit with Labor and the Haredim, particularly Deri, will sit with Yesh Atid as long as a deal is struck that protects everyone’s collective turf. Yesh Atid was willing to sit with the Haredim in the last election, it was the Jewish Home that refused.
You are dealing with politicians. Principles have nothing to do with the game. They play the public like two bit hustlers and the public falls for it every time. You all remember Sharon, right, the hawk of hawks? Tell me Lieberman (or any of the other hucksters) is more principled than Sharon, and I’ll show you some swamp land in Florida that I just put on the market.
I don’t think you can count on any of those “centrist” parties to not go with Livni/Herzog. I think we’re headed for an “upset. Also, Livni and Herzog are calling themselves Centrist, so …. There really aren’t too many right wing politicians out there. Everyone keeps moving left, and claiming to be right.
Shas and UTJ will not sit with Yesh Atid or Meretz in a government so that’s 14 seats out of your 65 that are “wishful thinking” for those on the left. Of course the Arab parties could sit with Lieberman as long as you are dreaming……..
See, I don’t understand why no one seems to remember whom we’re dealing with here. Politicians. Both Shas and UTJ have sat in a government with Meretz, and, for certain considerations, Deri would sit with anyone. Also, you could have a minority government being propped up by the Arabs outside the coalition. I fail to see why everyone thinks that “it can’t happen.” That’s a sure recipe for making sure it does happen.
Shas sat with Meretz in two governments (with Rabin & Barak) and then the differences in the ideology between the parties were not smaller. Still, I find it hard to believe that the Haredic parties or Liberman & Kachlon will go with the Labor-Livni bloc unless the Likud is weak. The only thing that can prevent Netanyahu government is a weak Likud Party, with 15 seats or less. If so, then Liberman, Kachlon, Yesh Atid, Labor-Livni government is possible, but probably rotation in PM office will have to be Herzog-Liberman/Kachlon and not Herzog/Livni.
Don’t understand the whole Livni meltdown thing. Maybe I’ve been around in America for too long, but I don’t see how she said anything particularly “foul” or anything that would suggest a meltdown.
I agree Yoav. Sweeping out a corrupt government is almost a cliche in political campaigns and a big boy who served in an elite IDF unit shouldn’t fall to pieces just because a political opponent called him a zero. Particularly since Bibi ran his first campaign by whispering in rabbis ears that his opponents were not real Jews. And if shoval ends up on the BY list a new standard of slander and political mudslinging will undoubtably be set.